Archive for Ervin Santana

Stock Up

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Ever hear the old adage that even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut? Well, McCutchen is the legume uncovered during the otherwise comedic/tragic tenure of former Pirates GM Dave Littlefield. The 11th overall selection in a stunningly deep 2005 draft class, McCutchen has hit the ground running in the majors. He’s batting .293/.362/.500 in 337 PA, showing power (.207 ISO, 10 HR) that belies his 5-11, 170 pound frame and well surpasses his minor league dossier.

The 22 year-old is working the count rather well (9.6 BB%, 18 K%), chasing 21.6% of pitches out of the strike zone (25.1% MLB avg). McCutchen has also been a smart, efficient base thief, with 15 swipes in 18 attempts (83.3% success rate). Couple the quality bat and high-percentage running with ample range in center field (+10.4 UZR/150), and you have a franchise pillar who has racked up 3.2 WAR since his early June call-up.

Ervin Santana, Angels

Is Santana turning his season around? There’s reason to believe so. Not that Ervin has been his dominant 2008 self this month, but he has allowed 12 runs in 33 August frames, holding opponents to a .250/.338/.408 line. Santana’s ’09 campaign has been plagued by injuries (a partially torn UCL and a forearm strain) and a consequent loss in velocity (after firing 94.4 MPH bullets and 84 MPH sliders in ’08, Santana’s overall fastball velocity sits at 91.8 MPH in ’09, with an 82 MPH slider).

However, his stuff does seem to be trending up as of late. His average fastball velocity is up to 92.3 MPH in August, and the pitch has been moderately effective after a disastrous showing earlier:

Santana’s Runs/100 pitches value with his fastball, by month:

May: -4.49
June: +1.12
July: -2.59
August: -0.13

(note: these linear run values are dependent on things like BABIP and HR/FB rate. In the case of a guy like Santana, his BABIP was in excess of .350 during the first three months, meaning those numbers shouldn’t like quite as bad as they do).

John Smoltz, Cardinals

Smoltz’s good processes and awful results with the Red Sox spurred countless discussions on just how we can more properly evaluate pitching performance.

The easy, lazy narrative on Smoltz following his run of drubbings with Boston was, “he’s old, injured and washed up.” But his underlying numbers suggested that he was still capable of performing at the highest level.

Latching on with St. Louis, Smoltz has made two excellent starts to begin his Red Bird career (a combined 11 IP, 15 K, 1 BB and 1 R vs. San Diego and Washington). While clearly promising, Smoltz’s two dominant outings don’t declare “he’s back” any more than his brutal Boston stint announced “he’s done.”

I’m obviously in the more optimistic camp when it comes to Smoltz’s future, but declaring “I told you so” after two starts would be even more foolish than coming to the conclusion that he was washed up following his Boston tenure. In other words, it’s just best to avoid knee-jerk reactions based on a small smattering of playing time.

Barry Zito, Giants

By this point, saying that the immense financial commitment that the Giants made to Barry Zito through at least 2013 was unwise is like beating a dead horse. Frankly, it’s more like beating glue. But, the calls for the club to outright release the left-hander are hyperbolic to the highest degree. That Reign of Terror-like bloodlust (“off with his head!”) might make for headline-generating copy, but it would also be a terrible financial decision.

Zito isn’t worth nearly $20M per season; we get it. But that doesn’t mean he’s worthless, either. In 2009, Barry has posted his lowest FIP (4.20) since 2003, with his highest K rate (6.93) since ’02 and his lowest walk rate (3.49) since ’04. His vaunted curveball (+2.49 runs/100 pitches thrown) is in the black run-wise for the first time since 2005, and Zito’s slider (+2.24 runs/100) is also getting the job done.

Overall, Zito has been worth 2.2 WAR, which equates to about $9.8M worth of value. Yes, that falls well short of how the Giants are compensating him. But severing ties for the mere sake of satiating the scribes would be like cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Rajai Davis, Athletics

A 28 year-old speedster originally drafted by the Pirates, Davis has gone from DFA’d Giant during the spring to everyday center fielder for the A’s. A plus defender and an adept base stealer (29 for 37 in ’09), Rajai could be a viable starter if he can avoid stinking up the joint at the plate.

While Davis’ gifts afield and on the bases are apparent, we don’t exactly know what to expect from an offensive standpoint. He was relatively patient in a productive 2007 season (10 BB%, 19.4 O-Swing%), an unabashed hacker in a letdown 2008 campaign (3.6 BB%, 36.2 O-Swing%), and he has essentially split the difference in 2009 (7.8 BB%, 30.9 O-Swing%). If Davis can work the count and get on base at a reasonable clip, he’s a perfectly acceptable regular and a person of interest in fantasy circles. If he reverts to chasing off the plate and in the dirt, he’s Willy Taveras.

Stock Down

Johan Santana, Mets

At this pace, Mr. Met will be inserted into the New York lineup by mid-September. Santana is just the latest in a staggeringly long line of Mets casualties, as he’s done for the season following arthroscopic surgery to remove bone spurs from his left elbow.

Something was clearly amiss with the ace southpaw, as his K rate plummeted after a dominant April and May and his fastball velocity dipped into the 80’s (89.5 MPH in August). What’s Nelson Figueroa’s WAMM (Wins Above Mr. Met)?

Hank Blalock, Rangers

The 28 year-old Blalock once looked like a building-block player for the Rangers (he posted 5.3 WAR in 2003 and 4.4 WAR in 2004). Since then, not-so-hammerin’ Hank has compiled 2.5 WAR. Combined. Injuries have assuredly played a part, but Blalock’s plate patience has progressively eroded:

2007: 9.2 BB%
2008: 6.9 BB%
2009: 4.7 BB%

Hank’s wOBA has dipped from .383 in ’07 to .317 this year. And now, he’ll grab some pine as Chris Davis gets another chance to, well, stop hitting like Blalock.

Bobby Parnell, Mets

Forced into the depleted Queens rotation, Parnell has been hammered for 24 runs in 21 innings as a starter. The 6-4, 200 pound righty (a 9th-round selection out of Charleston Southern in 2005) boasts a low-to-mid-90’s heater with good movement out of the ‘pen, but middling control and questionable secondary offerings call into question his viability as a starter. There’s certainly no harm in trying to figure out if the soon-to-be 25 year-old can handle lineups multiple times (all but two of his appearances in the minors came as a starter), but he appears to be Mike Pelfrey, with worse control.

B.J. Upton, Rays

Let me preface this by saying that I remain a big believer in Upton. The 2nd overall pick in the ’02 draft just turned 25. And at one point or another, B.J. has shown every skill required of a superstar player. He has popped extra base hits (.209 ISO in ’07), has generally worked the count very well (11.7 BB% career), can swipe plenty of bags (he’s on pace for over 40 this year) and has acclimated himself to center field after his nomadic “shortstop, no second baseman, no third baseman” experience.

With strong D, Upton has still been a valuable contributor this season (2.1 WAR). But from a fantasy standpoint, he has been a disappointment. B.J.’s walk rate is down to 9.5% after a career-best 15.4% in ’08. Upton’s relative power outage in 2008 (.128 ISO) was largely attributed to a shoulder injury that required off-season surgery and sidelined him early in ’09, but his ISO this year (.129) hasn’t climbed. His first-pitch strike%, just 55.2% in 2008, is up to 62.1% in 2009 (58.2% MLB average).

The overall package of tools remains tantalizing, and Upton’s down 2009 could actually present an opportunity to buy low in 2010. But, owners who invested a high draft pick back in March are surely bummed out.

Aaron Harang, Reds

Harang’s 2009 season is over, following an emergency appendectomy. And with that, three-fifths of Cincy’s rotation (Cueto, Volquez and Harang) has hit the shelf during the summer.

The popular narrative for Harang cites the massive change in his won-loss record from 2007 (16-6) to 2009 (6-14). Oh, how the mighty have fallen. But how much has Harang really declined? Not that much, when viewed through the scope of Expected Fielding Independent ERA:

2006: 3.89 XFIP
2007: 3.81 XFIP
2008: 4.39 XFIP
2009: 4.00 XFIP

As a fly ball-centric pitcher in a ballpark that inflates home run production considerably, Harang and Great American Ballpark go together like peanut butter and tooth paste. But he’s still largely the same guy who performed so admirably from 2005-2007.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 16

Nick Blackburn – This season Blackburn is 5-0 at home and has allowed just one HR in 57.1 IP. On the road he is 3-4 and he has allowed nine HR in 66 IP. With road starts at Oakland and at Anaheim, it might be a good time to pull him from the lineup if you have a reasonable alternative.

Brett Cecil – The rookie has appeared in nine games for Toronto this season, making eight starts. The overall numbers do not look very good, but he has five Quality Starts. In his three bad outings, one came on the road in Fenway Park and the other came on the road in Yankee Stadium. I like him for a guy to pick up this week for his two home starts against the Indians and the Rays.

Chad Gaudin – You have to like the 9.58 K/9 ratio. Unfortunately, that comes with a WHIP-killing 4.95 BB/9. However, in his last six starts, Gaudin has a 1.115 WHIP and a 3.11 ERA. And with a home start versus Florida and a road start at Washington, Gaudin has a chance to pull out a win or two if he continues his recent strong pitching.

Kyle Lohse – This year Lohse is 4-3 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.068 WHIP at home and is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA and a 1.727 WHIP on the road. Last year in his first year with the Cardinals, Lohse was 8-2 with a 3.32 ERA at home and 1.140 WHIP while away from Busch Stadium he was 7-4 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.524 WHIP. With road starts at Houston and at Philadelphia, put Lohse on the bench this week.

Ervin Santana – He got his second win of the season in the Angels’ first game back from the All-Star break, as he allowed just two walks in eight innings. Santana has been on the DL twice this season, first with an elbow injury and more recently due to a triceps injury. But Santana hit 94 on the radar last night and is rounding back into the pitcher he was last year when he posted 16 wins. Get him in the lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Danks, Lowe, Braden, Floyd, Millwood, Scherzer, Pettitte, Hanson, Price, Smoltz, Meche, Lannan, Davis, Galarraga, Porcello, De La Rosa, Sanchez, Moyer, Niemann, Ohlendorf, Wellemeyer, L. Hernandez, Sadowski, Moehler, Olson, Owings, Richard, Gonzalez, V. Vasquez, D. Hernandez, Jeff Weaver, Swarzak, Lopez, O’Sullivan, Banks.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 14 and how they did.

Contreras – Advised to start. W, 1.42 ERA, 5 K, 1.00 WHIP (1 start)
Garland – Advised to sit. W, 2.57 ERA, 9 K, 1.29 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to start. W, 6.30 ERA, 8 K, 1.80 WHIP (2)
Romero – Advised to start. W, 3.77 ERA, 8 K, 1.40 WHIP (2)
Zimmemann – Advised to sit. 4.35 ERA, 9 K, 1.84 WHIP (2)

Stock Up

Garrett Jones, Pirates

Who? Mr. Jones is a 28 year-old lefty hitter who had a bitter cup of coffee with the Twins back in 2007 (.260 wOBA in 84 PA). The hulking 6-4, 230 pounder is one of many kinda-sorta-maybe corner outfielders getting a chance at playing time in Pittsburgh (Brandon Moss and Delwyn Young are also in the mix). Jones has responded by thwacking 5 home runs in his first 46 PA. While he could be a cheap source of power and has a good chance of keeping his name in the lineup, I would hesitate against getting too enthralled. Jones is a career .258/.312/.450 minor league hitter who has taken 5 tours of the AAA International League. His rest-of-season ZiPS projection (.257/.309/.455, 6.7 BB%) essentially makes Jones look like Pittsburgh’s version of Micah Hoffpauir.

Jonathan Sanchez, Giants

Sanchez was booted from San Fran’s rotation, only to be returned to the starting five in the aftermath of Randy Johnson ’s shoulder injury. I think Jonathan, uh, responded well. The gifted, aggravating 26 year-old tossed a no-no versus the Padres, punching out 11 in the process. It’s anyone’s guess as to how the Puerto Rican native pitches in his next outing, though. Equipped with low-90’s cheese and a plus slider (+1.84 runs/100 pitches), Sanchez has punched out 9.04 hitters per nine innings. However, his walk rate (5.26 BB/9) leaves owners pulling out their hair. Whether the 6-2, 190 pounder remains in Giants duds past the deadline remains to be seen, but he should continue taking regular turns in the rotation regardless.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants

Pablo is no stranger to the “Stock Up” section, but his scorching first-half deserves special mention. As a 22 year-old, Sandoval has posted a .406 wOBA, ripping the seams of the ball to the tune of a .333/.385/.578 line. While the 5-11, 245 pound corner infielder will never be called restrained at the plate, he has shown promising signs in terms of working the count. Sandoval’s walk rate has climbed from 2.7% in 2008 to 7.3% this year, with a drop in his percentage of swings outside of the strike zone (53.8% to 45.3%). As a result, Pablo’s first-pitch strike percentage has dipped from 70.8% to 59.4% (58% MLB average).

Sandoval has contributed 21.3 park-adjusted Batting Runs above average for the Giants. The rest of San Francisco’s usual starting lineup has posted a collective -18.5 Batting Runs. Let that sink in for a moment.

David Price, Rays

In 2009, Price has been a Three True Outcomes pitcher. While the abundance of whiffs (9.61 K/9) highlight the talent that made the Vanderbilt star the most celebrated pitching prospect in the minors, Price has also handed out free passes (6.34 BB/9) and souvenirs (1.43 HR/9) far too often. Perhaps Price has begun to turn the corner, as he outdueled Doc Halladay on July 9th (6 IP, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K). The 23 year-old southpaw will likely toss the occasional stinker as he gains his big league footing, but there’s still every reason to think he’ll be an integral part of Tampa’s rotation. If Price can get ahead of hitters more frequently (his first-pitch strike percentage is just 53.9%), he should be able to garner more swings on pitches off the plate (his outside-swing percentage is only 18.6%, compared to the 25% MLB avg).

Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals

Formerly property of Oakland, Texas, Cleveland and Detroit, Ludwick had saw career stagnate as he dealt with the effects of a serious hip injury. The righty-hitting, lefty-chucking outfielder then revived his baseball ambitions in St. Louis, posting a .350 wOBA in 2007 and a monstrous .406 mark in 2008. While last year was almost assuredly a peak season, the 31 year-old Ludwick (Happy Birthday, Ryan!) has rebounded from some BABIP-induced valleys (.716 OPS, .156 BABIP in May, .622 OPS, .219 BABIP in June) to crush the ball for a 1.243 OPS in July. His production for the season (.357 wOBA, .264/.333/.496) is a good match for his ’07 work. ZiPS sees Ludwick performing slightly better from here on out (.368 wOBA, .273/.345/.510).

Stock Down

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers

Salty has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many this season. The 24 year-old, switch-hitting backstop was the best-known prospect in the July 2007, gift-that-keeps-on-giving Mark Teixeira swap. However, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus are running circles around Saltalamacchia these days.

Salty didn’t show much pop in his trial with Texas last year (.319 wOBA, .244/.352/.365) and he whiffed like Chris Davis lite (37.4 K%), but he did work the count well (13.5 BB%). This year, he has kept the punch outs (36.3 K%) but dropped the patient approach (6.8 BB%). His O-Swing% has soared from 26.2% to 34.6%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 53% to 64%. The result? A putrid .288 wOBA. There’s still time for Salty, but he’s going to have to halt the Eric Munson impersonation.

Jason Giambi, Athletics

As Dave Cameron pointed out last month, the baseball community has an Adam Everett-like batting average when it comes to identifying when an older player is “done.” There’s usually a rush to attribute poor performance in baseball’s elder statesmen to a loss in skill, and sometimes that’s correct. But other times, Jim Edmonds or Gary Sheffield gets released and then starts partying like it’s 1999.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that I’m not quite ready to write Giambi’s hardball eulogy; many of you will remember that he looked washed up a half-decade ago and then resumed raking. But the 38 year-old looks cooked. His performance against fastballs has cratered (-0.50 runs/100 pitches, compared to +1.01 in 2008), and things are only getting worse as the months roll by:

Giambi’s Runs/100 pitches against fastballs, by month

April: +0.24
May: -0.17
June: -0.56
July: -3.97

If one wishes to be optimistic, his .217 BABIP is nearly 40 points lower than 2008’s mark. Giambi could bounce back, but I wouldn’t bet on it. ZiPS projects a .213/.347/.404 line the rest of the way. That’s just not very useful at a position where the average player boasts a .276/.363/.485 triple-slash.

Ervin Santana, Angels

(I don’t have anything against the AL West-I swear!)

On the heels of a dominant 2008 season in which he compiled a 3.30 FIP, Santana has gotten roped for a 5.72 FIP in 40.1 innings. Pitching with a damaged elbow ligament, Ervin just isn’t nearly the same hurler who used a wicked mid-90’s fastball and biting slider to punch out 8.79 batters per nine innings in 2008. Santana’s velocity is down over 3 ticks this year (94.4 MPH to 91 MPH), with a 2-3 MPH dip on the slider (83.9 MPH to 81.4).

Santana’s heater has been the worst among any starter chucking at least 40 frames (a stunning -4.1 runs/100 pitches, after a +0.11 mark in ’08). Hitters are making more contact (84.2% contact rate, up from 77.1% in ’08) and swinging at fewer outside pitches (24.7% in ’09, 31.7% in ’08). Santana looks like damaged goods.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

Millwood’s regression shouldn’t come as a complete surprise, as his ERA was far surpassing his peripherals. There’s still a sizable gap between his ERA (3.46) and FIP (4.73), but it has lessened after Millwood surrendered 17 earned runs over his past 17.1 innings. Texas’ slick leather (8th in team UZR) helps a pitch-to-contact hurler like Millwood, but he’s more serviceable mid-rotation starter than ace.

Dioner Navarro, Rays

The 25 year-old Navarro performed admirably for the Rays in 2008 (.330 wOBA), but the former Yankee and Dodger has plummeted to a .256 mark this season. He’s not getting many bounces (.245 BABIP), but Navarro’s plate discipline is non-existent (2.8 BB% in 2009, 7.4% in ’08). His outside-swing% is up from 23.2% to 27.2%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 52.8% to 57.5%. Navarro was worth 2.7 Wins Above Replacement in 2008, but he has been sub-replacement level in ’09 (-0.1 WAR).

While I’m quite sure that we are all familiar with the $137.5 million dollar man in Queens, there is yet another pitcher with the Santana surname who just turned in one of the best seasons of any starter in the game in 2008. Ervin Santana, long noted for his power fastball/slider combo, emerged as one of the more valuable properties in the American League.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic as an undrafted free agent in 2000, Santana made his major league debut in 2005. He would post a 4.43 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) in 133.2 IP that season, with 6.67 K/9 and 3.16 BB/9. A flyball pitcher (36.6 GB%), he was occasionally bit by the home run bug, with 1.14 HR/9.

Santana’s 2006 line would look largely the same in terms of his peripherals, as he struck out 6.22 batters per nine innings and issued 3.09 BB/9. His FIP ERA lowered slightly, down to 4.29. Though he remained a flyball-oriented hurler (38.4 GB%), Santana had better luck in the home run department. His 0.93 HR/9 was largely the product of a low 7.7 HR/FB%.

After two solid campaigns, Santana seemed primed to build upon his success and establish a new level of performance. Instead, he got his head handed to him: in 150 IP, Santana posted a ghastly 5.76 ERA. Some of that was the product of a very high BABIP (.333) and a low strand rate (67.3 LOB%), and he did manage to up his K rate to 7.56. However, his walk rate increased (3.48 BB/9) and he was crushed by the long ball, surrendering 1.56 HR/9. His HR/FB rate (11.9%) was not especially out of whack; he just gave up a ton of flyballs. Santana’s 35.6 GB% was the 8th-lowest among starters tossing at least 140 innings. With the higher walk rate and the homer-happy style, Santana’s FIP ERA climbed to 5.13.

Over his first three seasons in the big leagues, Santana utilized a four pitch mix: a fastball, slider, curveball and changeup.

Santana’s Pitch Selection, 2005-2007:

(FB=fastball, SL=Slider, CT=Cutter, CB=Curveball, CH=Changeup, SF= Split Finger XX= unidentified. The first number is the % that the pitch was thrown, the number in parentheses is the velocity)

2005: FB 61.7% (93.4), SL 21.7% (81), CB 6.3% (78), CH 10% (84.2), SF 0.3% (86.7)
2006: FB 60.9% (93.1), SL 21% (80.9), CB 8.5% (78.1), CH 9.6% (82.1)
2007: FB 61.9% (92.2), SL 24% (81), CB 8.7% (77.1), CH 5.5% (83.1)

Santana seemed to make an effort to incorporate all four pitches into his arsenal, though his changeup seemed to be waning in favor. He lost nearly a mile an hour off of his fastball in 2007, which would help explain his home run issues. Santana is a guy who likes to challenge hitters up in the zone with his four-seam fastball. One MPH might not seem like much, but it could mean all the difference in the world to a hitter’s reaction time.

In 2008, Santana returned with a simpler pitching approach. He basically scrapped the curve and used his change even less, instead choosing to rely upon his nasty slider:

Santana’s Pitch Selection, 2008:

FB 61.4% (94.4), SL 33.9% (83.9), CB 0.8% (78.1), CH 3.9% (85.8)

Santana’s fastball velocity bounced back to a career-high 94.4 MPH, and he increased his slider usage by about 10 percent. With improved heat and a harder, oft-utilized slider (the slider nearly gained 3 MPH), Santana drastically improved his performance this past season. He upped his WPA/LI from -1.85 to 3.08, almost a five-win swing. Santana’s strikeout rate jumped to 8.79 and he walked just 1.93 batters per nine innings. His HR/FB% was low at 8.9%, so his 0.95 HR/9 figures to creep up somewhat, but his FIP ERA was an outstanding 3.30. That figure ranked 5th among all American League starters. He also managed to correct his cartoonish home/road splits, though it’s debatable how much of that was just statistical “noise” from 2005-2007. Angel Stadium suppresses home run production, but no pitcher should have that wide of a split between home and road performance. Given Santana’s talent, there’s no reason to expect any wide split going forward.

There are plenty of other positive indicators as well. Santana got ahead of hitters much more consistently in 2008, upping his First-Pitch Strike Percentage (F-Strike%) from 59.9% in 2007 to 66.7% in ’08. Among all major league starters, only the incredibly precise Mike Mussina (67.6%) got ahead of batters with more frequency. Hitters also went fishing outside of the strike zone far more often this past season. Santana’s O-Swing% increased from 26.3% in 2007 to 31.7% in 2008. Only Jake Peavy and CC Sabathia garnered more undisciplined swings from batters. Santana’s Contact% also dipped by a solid margin, from 83.3% in ’07 to 77.1% in ’08. That 2008 figure ranked 11th among all starters, just slightly behind that other Santana guy.

Just about every performance indicator for Ervin Santana is trending up. Unleashing mid-90’s heat and a hellacious mid-80’s slider, Santana has increased his strikeouts, slashed his walk rate, is getting ahead of hitters and is becoming increasingly harder to hit. What’s not to like? 2008 was no outlier: Santana is here to stay as one of the best starters in the game.