Archive for Edwin Jackson

In terms of flashy major league debuts, no one can top Edwin Jackson. On his 20th birthday, the fireballing Dodgers rookie defeated Randy Johnson, punching out four batters in six scoreless innings. A 6th round pick in the 2001 draft, Jackson came equipped with an ideal pitcher’s frame (6-3, 190) and a fastball that crept up near triple digits at times. Considered one of the brightest prospects in a fertile Dodgers farm system, Jackson figured to play a prominent role in LA’s future.

That plan never came to fruition, however, as the German-born right-hander spent the 2004 and 2005 seasons sipping sour cups of coffee with the Dodgers (62 H, 42 R in 53.1 IP) and getting clobbered at hitter-friendly AAA Las Vegas (126 R in 145.1 IP). He found some measure of success upon a demotion to the AA Southern League in ’05 (6.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9), but on the whole those two seasons were brutal. Los Angeles eventually grew tired of Jackson’s lack of progress and jettisoned him (along with lefty Chuck Tiffany) to Tampa Bay for Danys Baez and Lance Carter prior to the 2006 season.

Jackson more or less trudged along the same disappointing career path in 2006 (5.45 ERA) and 2007 (5.76) as well, before posting a mark below the league average for the first time in his career this past season. Still just 25 and coming off a campaign in which he shaved his ERA down to 4.42, Jackson only figures to get better, right?

Well, the Tigers certainly think so. The club shipped rangy, cost-controlled outfielder Matthew Joyce to the Rays to acquire Jackson’s services a few days ago in what Dave Cameron called a “ridiculously bad trade.” While Detroit’s starting staff ranked just 21st in WPA/LI and could use some external help, there just isn’t much evidence to suggest that their newest arm actually made significant progress in 2008.

In 2007, Jackson posted a 4.90 FIP. In 2008, despite the huge difference in ERA, that FIP figure remained static (4.88 FIP). While he knocked off over a walk per nine innings from his line (from 4.92 BB/9 in ’07 to 3.78 BB/9 in ’08), his strikeout rate dipped considerably, down from 7.16 per nine in 2007 to just 5.3 in 2008.

It wasn’t really Jackson that improved, but rather the defense around him. The dramatic shift in the quality of Tampa’s D has been well chronicled. After posting a gruesome -54.2 UZR in 2007, the Rays skyrocketed to +70.6 in ’08 (for those of you scoring at home, that’s about a twelve-and-a-half win swing). Jackson’s BABIP was .351 in 2007, but with the best defensive squad in the majors flanking him in 2008, that number dropped to .301. He also benefitted from stranding 76.1% of runners on base, well above his 69.7% career average.

Jackson is a great example of velocity not being everything for a pitcher. Despite routinely popping the catcher’s mitt at 94 MPH, Jackson’s swinging strike percentage was just 7.7% in 2008, slightly below the 7.8% average for starters. For comparison, former teammate Andy Sonnanstine (he of 87 MPH heat and four offspeed pitches) generated swinging strikes at a 7.3% clip and bested Jackson with 5.77 K/9. So, despite Jackson’s “stuff” advantage, he missed about the same number of bats as Sonny while walking over two times as many hitters (which, I guess, gives you an idea of why Andy is sticking around and Jackson is not).

While Jackson is still relatively young and it’s conceivable that he could improve, he’s no more than an adequate fifth starter at this point in time. Don’t be fooled by the superficial gains in his 2008 numbers: the only thing that changed about Jackson this past year was the quality of the defenders around him.

14 wins, a 4.42 ERA and 108 strikeouts. Not bad for a late-round flier, right?

Indeed, Edwin Jackson may have been the best fifth starter in baseball this year, and was a big reason why the Tampa Bay Rays won 97 games. However, much of Jackson’s success this year is unsustainable, and you should be very wary of him in 2009.

Let’s start simply: in 183 innings, Jackson posted a K/BB ratio of 108/77. If you’re going to strike out 5.3 batters per nine innings, you’d better do something else well – namely, you’d better limit your walks and/or get a lot of ground balls.

Unfortunately, Jackson doesn’t limit his walks, and doesn’t get a tremendous amount of grounders, either (he actually allowed slightly more fly balls than grounders this year). So what does he do well? Jackson was exceptional in “clutch” situations this year.

In fact, according to our handy “clutch” stat here at Fangraphs, Edwin Jackson was the third-most “clutch” pitcher in baseball. Of course, the better a pitcher is, the more likely is to be clutch – a good pitcher is more likely to retire a hitter in any situation than a bad pitcher.

Therefore, it’s of little surprise to see John Lackey, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, and Jon Lester among the top 11 “clutchiest” pitchers in baseball this year. However, Edwin Jackson’s clutchiness is a big surprise: Jackson was far better in important situations than he was overall.

In fact, Jackson allowed an .830 OPS against him with no one on base, but a .752 OPS with runners on. With runners in scoring position and two outs, he allowed a .682 OPS. With men on first and second, opposing batters got a hit only five times in 40 at bats. They were 4-for-17 with runner at third, and hit only .262 with runners in scoring position, as opposed to .281 overall.

Perhaps it’s possible that Jackson simply focuses better in important situations, allowing him to pitch better with runners on base. I am skeptical of this proposition in general, but I allow that it’s possible. If this were the case, we’d expect Edwin to exhibit similar splits in 2007 (when, incidentally, his K/BB ratio was a very-similar 128/88).

In 2007, his OPS against with none on was .847; whereas his OPS with runners on was 821. However, with runners in scoring position, his OPS against was .857. Batters hit .305 with runners in scoring position, as compared to .299 overall.

In short, Edwin Jackson displayed no ability to pitch well in the clutch in 2007. And he showed very little, if any, actual improvement in his overall game from 2007 to 2008. Rather, his “improvement” is tied directly to his splits with runners on base, leading him to give up far fewer runs than he “should” have. Unless you think that this is actual improvement in his “clutch” pitching – which is extremely rare and not backed up by the numbers – look for Jackson’s ERA to rise, perhaps significantly, in 2009.