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Today’s Roto Riteup isn’t nearly exciting as your Monday is going to be. Monday’s are the best.

–  It looks as if Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey is going to start the year on the disabled list. Owners of Bailey should have been expecting a DL stint at some point, but starting the year on the bench can be a little less psychologically damaging. With Daniel Bard sliding into Boston’s rotation, one would assume setup man Mark Melancon would finish games in Bailey’s absence. However, there is growing speculation and reports that the Red Sox would hand to job over to Alfredo Aceves, the loser of the three man fight for Boston’s final rotation spot. You should probably pick up whoever gets the nod, especially with Bailey’s injury history.

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Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals

The 24 year-old Desmond was recently named Washington’s starting shortstop, overtaking $8 million man Cristian Guzman. Though the club said it wasn’t a factor, Guzman (who missed time with a shoulder injury last September and this spring) has struggled to unleash throws from deep in the hole.

A third round pick in the 2004 draft, Desmond had a big year at the plate in 2009. He missed two months following surgery to remove the hamate bone in his left hand, but he hit a combined .330/.401/.477 between Double-A and Triple-A. A near-.400 BABIP helped him tremendously, though he did do a better job of working the count (9.1 percent walk rate). In a late-season stint with the Nationals, Desmond posted a .372 wOBA in 89 plate appearances. What do the projection systems say about him?

CHONE: .265/.326/.412, .324 wOBA
ZiPS: .270/.334/.388, .325 wOBA
FANS: .278/.335/.412, .330 wOBA

Desmond should be about a league-average hitter in 2010. At shortstop, that’s useful in NL-only leagues. For more on Desmond, see Dan Budreika’s breakdown and Marc Hulet’s Top 10 Nationals prospects list.

Franklin Morales, Colorado Rockies

Huston Street (shoulder) will start the season on the DL, giving Morales the chance to rack up some saves in the early going.

As a starter in the minors, the 24 year-old lefty whiffed a batter per inning but walked a whopping 5.2 batters per nine frames. At the Triple-A level, Morales had 7.3 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 in 168.2 innings. Shifted to the bullpen in 2009, he posted a 4.72 xFIP with 9.23 K/9 and 5.18 BB/9 in 40 innings.

At this point, Morales tries to overpower hitters with 92-93 MPH heat while hoping for enough weak swings to compensate for a lack of secondary stuff and control. Morales’ fastball has been a plus pitch in the majors (+0.57 runs/100 pitches), and he gets plenty of swings and misses: his fastball had an 8.4 percent whiff rate last year, compared to the six percent MLB average. However, his low-70’s curveball (-1.13) and high-70’s changeup (-0.66) lag behind, and his first pitch strike percentage in the bigs is just 50.9 percent (58 percent MLB average).

Though he’s far from a finished product, Morales is well worth picking up in all formats.

Jeff Clement, Pittsburgh Pirates

Clement was once considered a franchise building block in Seattle as a catcher with ample lefty pop. Now, he’s a 26 year-old first baseman aspiring to be the next Adam LaRoche in Pittsburgh. Though he has struggled in limited major league playing time (.237/.309/.393 in 243 PA), Clement has a career .279/.368/.492 line at the Triple-A level.

Problem is, that’s yawn-inducing now that he has fallen down the defensive spectrum. CHONE and ZiPS both project a .265/.340/.460-type season for Clement in 2010. That’s not bad, but consider that the average MLB first baseman socked to the tune of a .277/.362/.483 triple-slash in 2009. Clement will open the year as Pittsburgh’s starting first baseman, and he could have a little value in NL-only leagues. But he’ll have to mash to keep his spot.

Tom Gorzelanny, Chicago Cubs

The former Pirates prospect looked cooked in 2008, but his stuff bounced back in ’09 as he pitched well in seven starts and 15 relief appearances (3.73 xFIP). Gorzo has punched out 8.6 batters per nine innings with 2.5 BB/9 in Triple-A, and both CHONE and ZiPS figure that he’ll be a handy starter for the Cubs in 2010:

CHONE: 7.39 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 4.43 FIP
ZiPS: 7.25 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.25 FIP

His rotation spot isn’t guaranteed once Ted Lilly returns, but Gorzelanny has the talent to remain in the starting five and provide value in NL-only leagues.

(Jason Heyward is an obvious candidate here, but we examined his fantasy value a few days ago.)

Russell Branyan, Cleveland Indians

The Three True Outcomes nomad will start the season on the DL with a herniated disk in his back. Branyan isn’t likely to match last year’s .368 wOBA with the M’s (most projection systems have him regressing to the .350 range), and a balky back won’t help his chances.

On a positive note, CC Sabathia trade goodies Michael Brantley (left field) and Matt LaPorta (first base) will open the year in the starting lineup. Brantley offers a keen eye and high-percentage base thievery (46 SB in 51 tries at Triple-A last year), and LaPorta can put a charge into the ball (career .266 ISO in the minors).

Dustin McGowan, Toronto Blue Jays

When healthy, McGowan has been a quality starter (career 4.28 xFIP). But the 28 year-old hasn’t tossed a major league pitch since July of 2008 following shoulder surgery. He was recently shut down, so it doesn’t look like McGowan is particularly close to pumping mid-90’s heat and upper-80’s breaking stuff like he used to.

Melky Cabrera, Atlanta Braves

Fantasy players aren’t going to cry over spilled Melky, not with Heyward getting a chance to shine in right field. But with the best hitting prospect in the game making the squad, Cabrera goes from a possible sleeper in NL-only leagues (CHONE projects a .358 wOBA) to a part-time player who will share left field with Matt Diaz.

Minnesota’s closer-by-committee

With Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) sidelined in 2010, Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire plans to enter 2010 with a closer-by-committee approach. That means Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain could all get a shot at the ninth. Any owner who drafted Nathan, watched his elbow go boom and then picked up Rauch looking to recoup some value is probably getting all twitchy while reading this.

– Huston Street will be starting the year on the DL, which isn’t a good sign for those of you who decided to select him as a keeper. He had problems with tightness in his shoulder over the past month, and had an MRI done yesterday. Street hasn’t had shoulder problems in the past, so this isn’t too much of a concern. Still, a closer with arm troubles is hard to judge, because missing a few weeks could mean losing their job. I doubt Street will lose his gig, but keep an eye on him.

– The big ball of power known as Mat Gamel has had a hard time recovering from a sore shoulder. Gamel entered spring hoping to win the third base job, but now I’d bet that Casey McGehee will start the year with the job. McGehee may not hit .300 again, but 15 homers and a .275 average are reasonable expectations. McGehee is eligible at second and third base, and is currently the 210th player off the board according to Mock Draft Central.

– A’s closer Andrew Bailey is going to sit out for a couple days due to elbow soreness. Bailey’s rookie campaign was helped by a .234 BABIP against, but his strong strikeout and walk numbers should translate over to 2010.

– Dustin McGowan pitched two innings in a simulated game this week, and the Jays still don’t have a timetable for his return. McGowan had a good 2007 and a decent 2008, but since his progress has been slow he is no longer draftable even in the deepest of leagues with a DL spot.

– Placido Polanco suffered a sprained right knee earlier in the week, and he hopes to return to action tomorrow.

– Rick Ankiel’s ankle is starting to become a legitimate concern for the Royals, and he isn’t likely to play until Sunday, at the earliest.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Toronto Blue Jays club that finished fourth in the American League East division with a record of 75-87. As a team, the Blue Jays posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -3.08, which was 18th in the Major Leagues and ninth in the American League.

The Good: Aaron Hill, 2B
A lot of things went wrong in Toronto in 2009, but a few players had true breakout seasons, including Adam Lind, Marco Scutaro, and Hill. The second baseman was recently named Comeback Player of the Year after missing a good portion of the 2008 season thanks to a concussion, which makes his ’09 performance all the more impressive. Not even the biggest Aaron Hill fan envisioned a 36 homer, 108 RBI season occurring at any point in his career. His ISO of .213 was fifth amongst MLB second basemen, behind Ben Zobrist (.246), Ian Kinsler (.235), Chase Utley (.226), and Dan Uggla (.216). Toronto has Hill locked up through 2014 (’12-’14 are option years) and paid him just $2.6 million for a four-win season in ’09.

Hill is not likely to repeat his 30+ homer season, but he did hit 47 doubles and 17 homers in ’07. That suggests that a 20-25 homer year would not be out of the question. If he continues to hit out of the two hole in the lineup, he’s not a lock for 100 RBI… 80 would be more realistic, especially if lead-off man Scutaro leaves town.

The Bad: Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch
How many teams can compete – especially in the American League East – when three members of the starting rotation are lost to serious injuries? Not many, if any, and Toronto struggled to fill the gaps. Rookies Scott Richmond, Brett Cecil, and Marc Rzepczynski each had their moments, with Rzepczynski showing the most potential for the future. Another rookie hurler, Ricky Romero, was the rotation’s second-best pitcher behind Roy Halladay and has an outside shot at the Rookie of the Year award in the AL. Marcum is expected to be back from Tommy John surgery by spring training 2010. McGowan’s timetable is fuzzy after struggling to comeback from shoulder surgery – while also dealing with subsequent nagging injuries. Litsch’s return date from Tommy John surgery looks to be mid-to-late 2010. With a new direction in the front office perhaps Toronto can figure out why its young pitchers keep getting hurt.

From a fantasy perspective, Marcum, McGowan and Litsch have little value at this point. However, all three should be monitored closely. Marcum, in particular, has a chance of putting together a string of solid starts in 2010 if his stuff bounces back to pre-surgery form. As for the ’09 rookies, Rzepczynski is an excellent sleeper candidate, especially in AL-only formats. Romero is the type of player that might attract the sophomore curse, while Cecil probably needs a little more seasoning before he’s ready to be an impact arm at the MLB level.