Archive for drew stubbs

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Brad Penny, St. Louis Cardinals (owned in 15% of Yahoo leagues)

Jeff Zimmerman briefly mentioned Penny last week, noting Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan’s Midas Touch in helping pitching retreads return to form.

Penny’s 2008 season was wrecked by shoulder problems, and in 2009 he posted rates of 5.66 K/9, 2.65 BB/9 and a 4.56 expected FIP (xFIP) between Boston and San Francisco. His actual ERA was three-tenths of a run higher, due mostly to a lower-than-usual rate of stranding base runners (67.1 percent in ’09, compared to a 71.1% career average). Happily, his fastball velocity returned to the 94 MPH range, after sitting at 92 MPH in 2008. Penny inked a one-year, $7.5 million deal with St. Louis back in December.

In his first start for the Cardinals on April 8th, Penny pitched seven strong innings against the Reds. He allowed one run and six hits, striking out four and walking two. Penny induced 13 groundball outs, compared to four of the fly ball variety.

We shouldn’t try to glean too much from one start, but Penny seemed to be pitching differently. For most of his career, the burly right-hander has reared back and fired four-seam fastballs nearly 70 percent of the time. Against the Reds, however, Penny often threw a high-80’s pitch with plenty of sinking and tailing action. His Pitch F/X page classifies most of them as changeups, but the pitch was thrown harder and had more drop than Penny’s typical changeups.

They sure look like sinkers to me, and that jives with this spring training report that Penny was working with Duncan to develop a sinker. Keep an eye on Penny’s pitch selection the next time he toes the rubber.

Kelly Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks (16%)

Johnson’s 2009 campaign with the Braves looks terrible on the surface. He hit .224/.303/.389 in 346 plate appearances, losing his second base job to Martin Prado. By September, Johnson was relegated to pinch-hit duty and official odds-maker on Bobby Cox’s next ejection.

However, the new D-Back didn’t really slip from his 2008 level of play. Johnson walked in 8.5 percent of his PA in ’08, and 9.2 percent in ’09. He whiffed 20.7 percent in ’08, and 17.8 percent in ’09. Johnson’s ISO was slightly higher in 2009 (.165, compared to .159 in ’08). The major difference in his line was a plummeting BABIP: Johnson got hits on balls put in play 34 percent of the time in 2008, but just 24.7 percent in 2009.

That .247 BABIP is bound to rise this season: his career mark is .310, and all of the projection systems call for a BABIP between .310 and .318. Johnson figures to hit something closer to his career .265/.347/.434 triple-slash in 2010, and he could top that considering Chase Field’s accommodating dimensions for hitters. He’s well worth owning in NL-only leagues, and isn’t a bad option in deep mixed leagues, either.

Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati Reds (27%)

Just how good of a hitter Stubbs will be in the long term remains up for debate. The 25 year-old authored a career .269/.364/.401 line in the minors, including a .268/.353/.360 showing last year at Triple-A Louisville. The former Longhorn has a good eye at the plate (11.9 percent walk rate in the minors). But his power (.132 ISO) and contact skills (27.2 K%) elicit mild projections from CHONE (.251/.328/.380) and ZiPS (.235/.305/.348).

While Stubbs might never be a top-shelf batter, he could be plenty useful in fantasy leagues if he gets on base at a decent clip. That’s because the 6-4, 205 pound center fielder can fly. Stubbs swiped 46 bags in 54 attempts in Triple-A last season (an 85 percent success rate), and his career minor league stolen base success rate is 77.1 percent. NL-only players searching for SBs should give Stubbs a spin.

In 2009, Cincinnati’s outfielders featured lackluster lumber. George Foster, Cesar Geronimo and Ken Griffey Sr. they were not. Collectively, Reds fly catchers posted a .318 wOBA, second-worst in the N.L. Considering that the Padres (.317 wOBA) play in a park that’s anathema to offense, it’s safe to say that Cincy’s outfielders were the least potent in the Senior Circuit.

However, better days are on the horizon. The Reds have a plethora of intriguing outfield options, some already in the majors and others just around the corner in the minors. Here’s a rundown of who may be guarding the gaps at the GAP in 2010 and beyond.

In the majors

Jay Bruce

The Boss entered 2009 with plenty of fantasy hoopla, but his final .223/.303/.470 triple-slash looks disappointing. Or does it? At age 22, Bruce walked more, struck out less and hit for a near-.250 ISO. The potent lefty batter swung at fewer pitches out of the zone, took at cut at more in-zone offerings and made more contact. In other words, Bruce matured at the dish.

His BABIP was shockingly low, at .222. Yes, his line drive rate (13 percent) was also down considerably. But even so, Bruce’s Expected BABIP, based on HR, strikeouts, SB, line drive rate, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls, was .294. Bruce turns 23 in April. With his wrist healed, he’s poised to wreak havoc on pitchers in 2010. The fans seem well aware of Bruce’s talents, projecting a .271/.343/.497 line for Cincy’s right fielder.

Drew Stubbs

The 8th overall pick in the 2006 draft, Stubbs made a favorable first impression in Cincinnati following his call-up last August. The University of Texas alumnus turned in a .267/.323/.439 line in 196 plate appearances (101 wRC+), swiping 10 bags in 14 attempts. Stubbs displayed a surprising amount of pop in the majors, with 8 HR and a .172 ISO.

A 6-4, 200 pound righty batter, Stubbs has long been adored by scouts for his range in center field. His TotalZone defensive numbers are glowing, too. Stubbs’ bat, however, has been subject to much debate.

While displaying a keen eye at the plate, Stubbs had issues making contact with the Long Horns. Those swing-and-miss tendencies have manifested in pro ball, with the gifted defender whiffing in 23.4% of his PA in the minors. His big frame hasn’t translated to a lot extra-base thump (career .132 ISO).

However, Stubbs continues to work the count well (11.9 BB%), and his base stealing has gone from haphazard (23 SB, 15 CS in Low-A in 2007) to fantastic (46 SB, 8 CS in AAA in 2009). As a plus CF with plate discipline and quick feet, the 25 year-old looks like a quality starter for the Reds. His base thievery makes him relevant in fantasy circles.

Chris Dickerson

Dickerson’s 2009 season was cut short by shoulder and ankle injuries. In between the ailments, the 28 year-old performed up to expectations: he worked the count (13.3 BB%), punched out often (25.9 K%) and nabbed some bases (11 SB, 3 CS). Dickerson didn’t put a charge in the ball in the lower minors, but his work at AAA (.180 ISO) and with the Reds in 2008 gave some hope that the 6-3, 225 pound batter had found his power stroke. Alas, a near-fifty percent GB rate in 2009 produced a .098 ISO.

Dickerson straddles the line between highly useful 4th outfielder and acceptable starter (Chris helps himself with quality outfield D). Given his issues with lefty pitching in the minors (career .223/.328/.319 line), he figures to take on righties in a platoon role in 2010. If you’re in a deep NL-only league, you could do worse.

Wladimir Balentien

Acquired from Seattle last July for RHP Robert Manuel, Wlad has failed to translate his minor league feats of strength to the big leagues.

Balentien was Curacao’s version of Jeff Francoeur in the low minors, swinging at anything within a five mile radius of home plate. However, the big righty batter cleaned up his plate approach in AAA (10.5 BB%, 18.8 K%, .283/.359/.534 line).

Unfortunately, Balentien has been carved up in the majors. In 559 career PA, Wlad has a weak .221/.281/.374 line, with a 72 wRC+. He has been merely below-average against fastballs and changeups. But breaking stuff has baffled him entirely (-3.12 runs/100 against sliders, -1.5 vs. curveballs). As a result, Balentien’s 70% MLB contact rate is miles away from the 80-81% average.

You might think Wlad would be a decent platoon mate for Dickerson, but Balentien has a reverse platoon split. At 25, Balentien is entering a critical point in his career. He needs to tighten his strike zone and avoid looking like Pedro Cerrano against stuff that bends and breaks.

Laynce Nix

Outrighted by the Reds during the fall, Laynce was recently brought back to Cincy on a minor league deal. The 30 year-old lefty hitter is coming off of a season in which he popped 15 HR and posted a .236 ISO.

Once you factor in Nix’s hack-tastic approach (6.6 BB%) and favorable home ballpark, though, his offense was eight percent below the league average (92 wRC+; his career mark is a paltry 74). As a good defender who occasionally makes some loud contact against righties, Nix is a decent extra outfielder. But he’s not a fantasy option. If you’re stuck playing a guy with a career .277 OBP, you’re screwed.

Willy Taveras

What happens when a batting average-dependent player, with zero power or patience, doesn’t have those bloops and ducksnorts fall in? Ask Taveras. The 28 year-old was merely very bad at the plate in 2008 (74 wRC+). But in 2009, horror ensued.

Taveras’ bat was 51 percent worse than the league average (49 wRC+) as he battled a quad strain. Sure, he stole some bases (25 SB, 6 CS). But Taveras is the exact type of player that fantasy players should avoid. He gives production in one category, at the expense of severely hampering you in many others. Stubbs has Taveras’ speed and actually has a clue in the batter’s box. Willy figures to be either glued to the bench or in another city come spring.

Coming soon

Chris Heisey

A 17th round pick out of Division III Messiah (PA), Heisey vaulted up Cincinnati’s prospect list with an impressive 2009 season.

A career .298/.369/.460 hitter in the minors, Heisey possesses a broad, if short of star-caliber skill-set. He hits for some power (.162 ISO career, and a .214 ISO at AA in 2009), but he’s not a hulking over-the-fence threat. The right batter picks his SB spots well (career 84.3 SB%), though he wouldn’t be described as a burner. Heisey gets positive reviews for his outfield defense, but he’s likely a corner outfielder in the majors. The well-rounded prospect could be more selective at the dish: his career walk rate is a little over eight percent.

Baseball America said it best in its 2010 Reds Top 10 Prospects list: “Heisey could be termed a ‘cheap five-tool player.'” The 25 year-old isn’t far away from making his big league debut. He’s no star, but Heisey and his blend of talents could figure into Cincy’s left field picture.

Todd Frazier

At this point, few doubt that the former Rutgers star is going to pack a punch with his bat. The question is, where will his name be penciled in on the diamond? A 6-3, 215 pound righty hitter, Frazier has trekked all over the field.

He’s not going to stick at shortstop. The Reds had him pinballing from left field to first base to second base in 2009, with a couple appearances at the hot corner for good measure. Brandon Phillips, a plus defender at 2B who’s signed for two more years (with a club option for 2012), doesn’t figure to be moving. Scott Rolen is Reds property through 2012 following his restructured deal with the club.

As such, LF appears to be the place where Frazier (a career .296/.367/.491 minor league hitter) breaks into the majors. “Arm bar” or not, his bat figures to be potent.

Position switch?

Juan Francisco

The 6-2 lefty hitter made his major league debut last season, and has played almost exclusively at 3B in the minors. However, Francisco is tipping the scales at 210+ pounds already. His long-term viability at the position is in question. The 22 year-old has ample pop (.201 minor league ISO), but he has to do a better job of laying off junk balls. He has taken a free pass in just 3.8% of his PA, with a 23.4% K rate. Francisco would be best served spending a full season in AAA, lest big league pitchers take advantage of his eyes-to-ankles strike zone.

Yonder Alonso

A first-round pick in the 2008 draft out of Miami, Alonso has a sweet lefty swing and has batted .293/.378/.459 on the farm. His ’09 season was slowed by a broken hamate bone, but Alonso still reached AA. While Yonder is not far away, there’s a sizeable road block at first base in Joey Votto. Sadly, the 6-2, 215 pound Alonso runs like tree sap in winter. Baseball America said “Cincinnati has toyed with playing him at third base, but his limited range would be a liability.” Perhaps the Reds will put him in left field, stomaching his defensive mishaps in exchange for his quality lumber.

After we checked center field this week, reactions were immediate and in favor of some of the names that didn’t quite make the top 15. These reactions were not without reason, because the position was surprisingly deep, especially if speed is the desired commodity.

The biggest hub-ub was raised in favor of Colby Rasmus, who is most certainly the best real-life player that didn’t make the list. His combination of plus defense in centerfield (+13.4 UZR/150) and developing offense (.311 wOBA) was already worth more than two wins for the Cardinals. But offense is the name of the game in fantasy, and his .251 batting average and modest speed (three stolen bases) last year were not good enough to roster in most mixed leagues.

The fans have rosy expectations for the player (outpacing the Bill James projections for once), and given his minor league stats, there’s reason for the optimism. As a youngster in most levels (he’s 23 now), he put up a nice combined line of .277/.366/.485 with power (.208 ISO) and speed (74 stolen bases, 81% success rate). But his batting averages also dropped with every successive promotion in the minor leagues, and batting average is the main difference between the Jamesian projections and those of the fans.

So will he hit .269 and recover some of the speed he showed in the minors and approximate a young Carlos Beltran next year? or will he hit .253 and make owning him a difficult proposition in 5×5 roto play? The key seems to be BABIP. James has him with a modest number for a man with wheels (.279). His batted ball profile last year (.284 BABIP, 19.6% line drive rate) seems to suggest he was slightly unlucky (.307 xBABIP) and that the fans’ BABIP projection (.314) is more reasonable. Given Rasmus’ pedigree, and his demonstrated power and speed, there are few late-round upside picks that are as exciting. Just draft Rasmus as your fourth outfielder in order to mitigate the batting average risk.

Dexter Fowler is another interesting name that didn’t quite make the list. The concern with Fowler is that Carlos Gonzalez played better defense in center field according to UZR and also outperformed Fowler at the plate in the second half. One thing that Fowler really needs to work on is his strikeout rate (26.8% in 2009) and his minor league numbers (23.7%) seem to suggest he can cut the Ks. If the Rockies don’t trade their outfield surplus, however, Fowler could find himself as the fourth outfielder that starts only against lefties (.850 career OPS vs. lefties). Regardless, Fowler’s pedigree with the scouting community should give him the benefit of the doubt if he finds himself battling with Seth Smith for time. Just realize that as it stands now, depending on Fowler for speed on your roto team is fraught with some risk.

Chris Young is an interesting outfielder, but he deserves a whole post of his own. Instead, let’s give a short shout-out to the new Reds centerfielder, Drew Stubbs. Though he strikes out too much (27.2% last year) to produce a great batting average, he has plus speed (6.1 speed score, 10 stolen bases, 71.4% success rate) that can actually improve. Consider that he’s bettered last year’s speed score in five out of six minor league seasons, and Bill James’ projections (51 stolen bases) don’t seem as outlandish as they might upon first blush. Deep leaguers looking for cheap speed need to remember this name.

It is a notoriously difficult task, but projecting steals correctly over the final two weeks can provide the points many fantasy teams need to win a title. Unfortunately, there are few tools at our disposal when trying to do this in the short term. We can look at the schedule and find the catchers that are easy to run on. Then we can try to find some players that are currently playing well. Then we just have to throw the dart.

Let’s take a look at some steals options down the stretch. We’ll break this up by the different league depths to try and find some players that are available on your wire.

10-team Leagues
Julio Borbon
Sometimes you don’t even need to check the schedule. Borbon has shown the ability to put up a double-digit steal month, and that sort of impact speed does not belong on the wire. Borbon averaged 57 steals per 162 minor league games and with the lack of pop and mediocre defense, he is the rare DH that makes his bread with his feet. Rajai Davis is hotter in September, but he’s probably long gone from your wire. Andrew McCutchen is a more complete hitter, but he’s probably also long gone and he’s gone a little cold to boot. With Michael Young and Josh Hamilton hurting and Hank Blalock out of the picture, Borbon will play. It doesn’t even matter who is the opposing catcher – a shot and Borbon is on second.

12-team leagues
Chris Getz
Getz is turning out to be an okay second baseman with the ability to get on base (7% walk rate) mixed in with passable defense (-3.6 UZR) and some good speed (24 stolen bases on the year). He has six stolen bases in his last ten games, so he’s looking to take the extra base right now. Next on the schedule are a couple of teams that are not very good at throwing potential base-stealers out in Minnesota (23.5%) and Kansas City (24.7%). With Joe Mauer’s arm itching to throw him out, though, owners would be forgiven for instead turning to Everth Cabrera, who ZiPS RoS tags as a less sure thing going forward but is also facing San Francisco (28.7%) and Colorado (21.8%) this month. The catchers trying to stop Cabrera will certainly not be sporting arms that measure up to Mauer’s.

16-team leagues
Drew Stubbs
If the Cabrera is not available in your 16-team league, Stubbs is a good consolation prize. The young Red outfielder doesn’t have as much power as he’s showing right now – he’s more of a speed guy – but he can get on base (minor league walk rate over 10%). He has some guys behind him that can bring him home, a favorable schedule with four games at Florida (23%), and he’s playing every day at the top of a lineup for a team that likes to steal (7th in the NL). It’s not a perfect mix – Stubbs went a little cold after a great start – but he’s still getting on base, and Florida has given up the most stolen bases in the National League.

20-team leagues
Cory Sullivan
In deeper leagues, you have to take any guy with that has shown speed in the past. Sullivan is playing every day right now and this month his team has six games against one of the worst teams in the major leagues against the steal (Florida, with a 23% success rate at catching thieves). Atlanta (31%) isn’t so great either. Sullivan is walking more than he ever has (12%) and he’s also getting playing time because Gary Sheffield is probably out for the rest of the season. Sullivan should run into some stolen bases over the final month.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Mike MacDougal (35%) – Released by the White Sox after five games and a 12.46 ERA, MacDougal has found new life with the Nationals and has ascended to the closer role. Ordinarily, this is not someone we would focus on, as he has a 4.48 FIP with Washington, compared to a 1.93 ERA, along with below-average K numbers. But with less than a month remaining in the season and the chance to pick up saves, he becomes an attractive add.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Homer Bailey (28%) – Coming off back-to-back starts in which he has allowed just one run in 15 innings, Bailey could still yet turn into the pitcher we have been waiting for the past few years. After averaging in the low 90s in his first two years in the majors, Bailey checks in this year at 94.5 and he was clocked at 98 in his August 23rd start.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Sean West (15%) – Has hurled a Quality Start in three of his last four outings, missing only in the second of back-to-back starts against the Astros. He tied a season high with 7 Ks in his last outing. West is 5-2 with a 3.26 ERA in nine home games this season.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Drew Stubbs (5%) – After starting the season 2-17, Stubbs has put up a .295-2-5-8-3 line in his last nine games. Stubbs is a “tools” guy, so he offers the chance for HR and SB for the final month of the season. His AVG may be his weakest tool, but that should not hurt fantasy teams too much this late in the season.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Milton Bradley (53%) – Yes, he has some baggage. But he is also a productive hitter when in the lineup, which should be all that matters as you chase a money spot in your league. In his last 35 games, Bradley has a .319-5-15-27-2 line. And unlike last year, Bradley is doing it in 2009 with sustainable numbers in a .319 BABIP and a 12.9% HR/FB rate.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, and Mat Latos.

Drew Stubbs: The Reds’ outfield is not instilling much fear in opponents as of late. Willy Taveras and Laynce Nix each have OBPs below .300. With Jay Bruce’s 18 homers on the DL, Nix leads the outfielders with eight dingers on the year. Thankfully, the organization keeps churning out outfield prospects. Stubbs is absolutely dripping with potential, athleticism and tools. Although he’ll likely always struggle to hit for a high average due to his contact issues (25.4 K%), the left-handed hitter could still manage to bat .250-.270. He has just two homers on the year, but Stubbs has the potential to hit 10-15 with his fair share of walks in the Majors when he matures as a hitter. Currently, he has 36 steals in 42 attempts and plays a plus centerfield.

Matt LaPorta: Chris Gimenez‘ versatility (He can catch) gives him a defensive edge over LaPorta, who is the much better offensive player and is currently wasting his time at triple-A. With 1B/DH Ryan Garko entering his expensive years in arbitration, he’ll likely be gone sooner rather than later, so Cleveland should just ship him out now to make room for LaPorta, who is a better hitter and comes much cheaper. LaPorta struggled in an early call-up to the club, but he received just 42 at-bats. For a club that’s going nowhere, it makes sense to give a 24-year-old – with the potential to hit 30 homers – a chance to play. He’s currently hitting .314/.390/537 with 11 homers in 255 triple-A at-bats.

Brandon Allen: Speaking of teams going nowhere, Arizona is in a similar situation, which is one of the reasons why the club jettisoned veteran pinch hitter and first baseman Tony Clark at the All-Star break. The club currently has Chad Tracy playing first base, but his offense is below-average for his position and he cannot stay healthy. Back-up first baseman Josh Whitesell is a career minor-leaguer who has constantly been overlooked, despite solid numbers. Whitesell will have to take advantage of his narrow window of opportunity, because Allen is waiting in the wings. Acquired earlier this season from the White Sox for reliever Tony Pena, Allen is a big-bodied slugger who has developed quickly over the past two seasons after originally being drafted out of high school in 2004. Last season, he hit 29 homers between high-A and double-A. This season, he’s got just 13 between double-A and triple-A, but he’s showing signs of becoming a better hitter due to a higher average (that’s not dependent on a high BABIP) and lower strikeout rates compared to his career norm. Since the trade to Arizona, he’s been on fire with a .364 average and five homers in 10 games.

Danny Valencia: To say Minnesota could use some stability at third base would be an understatement and Valencia just keeps getting better and better. With Joe Crede struggling with the bat as well as his health, and the likes of Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert offering little in the way of offense, the club needs to consider promoting Valencia as the team fights for a playoff spot. The 24-year-old third base prospect began the year in double-A before a promotion to triple-A where he’s currently hitting .362/.371/.616 with five homers in 24 games. Although his patience at the plate comes and goes (and when has Minnesota ever cared about OBP?), he won’t hurt the club in the strikeout category, he has average power, and he has the ability to hit .280-.290. Defensively, he’s solid with a plus arm.

Madison Bumgarner: Like quite a few other teams around Major League Baseball, the Giants club is fighting for a playoff spot and it appears that its best hope is the wild card. So the big question must be posed: Does it make sense to promote a 19-year-old pitching prospect if he’s dominating the competition in the minors and looks like a better option than one or two of the pitchers on your big-league rotation? It’s probably better to air on the side of caution, but this is the playoffs that we’re talking about… and Bumgarner currently has a career ERA of 1.50 in two minor league seasons. He’s also collectively allowed 176 hits in 228.1 innings with just 45 walks and 235 punch-outs. The left-handed pitcher is a rare find.

Bud Norris: The Astros club is also (surprisingly) in the playoff hunt but you have to be worried about how long the trio of Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and Russ Ortiz can hold it together. If at least one of the veteran arms falters, the organization needs to think about turning to top pitching prospect Norris. The 24-year-old right-hander has allowed just 98 hits in 114 innings of work this season with a walk rate of 3.95 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.53 K/9. Even if they don’t need him now, the club might be better off by getting him some MLB experience – even if it’s in the bullpen – just in case the club needs an emergency starter late in the year or in the playoffs.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Brandon Snyder is only 22 years old, but he’s already come very close to being a first-round draft pick failure, after being selected in the 2005 draft out of a Virginia high school. Originally a catcher, Snyder was moved out from behind the plate and assigned to his new position of first base. Many scouts felt the right-handed hitter would never develop enough power to be an impact player at the position, especially after he hit just 36 home runs in his first four seasons, but those opinions are beginning to change. Now in double-A, Snyder has followed up a very solid 2008 season with a true breakout season. He’s currently hitting .349/.421/.604 with 19 doubles and 10 home runs and 45 RBI in 192 at-bats. His ISO has increased each of the past three seasons from .138 to .175 to .255. The high average is probably a side effect of a lucky .404 BABIP, but the power looks like it might be for real.

Drew Stubbs, 24, is another former first round pick (eighth overall in 2006) who has been dogged by doubt throughout his career. The athletic outfielder has always oozed tools but he’s had difficulty translating that potential to the field. High strikeout rates were one of Stubbs’ biggest issues but he’s made some improvement after starting out with a 30.5 K% in 2006. His rate so far this season is 20.9 K%, with a respectable walk rate of 12.5 BB%. Stubbs has raw power too, but he’s still learning how to tap into that with just two homers but 18 doubles in 196 at-bats this season in triple-A. He has also stolen 23 bases in 27 attempts. Defensively, he is a good center field with excellent lateral range.

The Rays organization has a reputation for producing some pretty good outfield prospects and Desmond Jennings is the next in line. The 22-year-old prospect had a breakout 2007 season but then missed most of the 2008 season due to an ill-timed injury. Fully healthy in 2009, Jennings is on fire once again – this time in double-A. He’s currently hitting .327/.403/.518 with six homers and 22 stolen bases in 245 at-bats. Jennings has also struck out just 14.3% of the time. He’s also a gifted center fielder.

You’d think the Cincinnati Reds’ minor league system would start to slow down after producing the likes of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Johnny Cueto in the past few seasons, but the organization still has plenty of depth. At triple-A alone, the club has three relievers who could probably help a lot of MLB clubs right now in Josh Roenicke, Robert Manuel, and Pedro Viola. Each player in the trio was acquired by the organization through different means. Roenicke (whose brother Jason just made his season debut for the Jays’ low-A affiliate) was selected in the 10th round of the 2006 draft out of UCLA. The right-hander has posted solid numbers throughout his minor league career and has 54 saves in parts of four seasons. Roenicke, 26, has the stuff (a mid-to-high-90s fastball and good cutter) to be a useful MLB middle reliever. And we’ll find out soon enough. He was just recalled by the Reds last night.

Manuel, 25, was a non-drafted pitcher out of Sam Houston State University. He was signed by the Mets and traded to the Reds a year later for MLB pitcher David Williams. The right-hander has modest stuff but be just keeps getting results thanks to excellent command and control. He’s actually getting better as he ascends through the minors, having posted ERAs of 1.40 and 1.98 in the past two years in double-A and triple-A. He’s allowed just 81 hits in 123 innings during that time frame. Viola is the most interesting story of all. He originally signed with the San Francisco Giants as a position player but was released when he turned out to be older than he said. The Reds then took a flyer on him as a left-handed pitcher with a big-time fastball and strikeout slider. Despite being 25 already, he’s in just his third season in North America. Command and control continue to be his weaknesses.

The Giants organization has some pretty talented pitchers in its system so other players can sometimes get overlooked. Right-hander Kevin Pucetas has put up some solid career numbers despite having a below-average fastball. The pitcher works in the high 80s but he has plus command and excellent control (career walk rate of 1.8 BB/9). His changeup is a reliable out-pitch and he also utilizes two breaking balls. Pitchers like Mark Difelice and R.J. Swindle have proven that you don’t have to throw 95 mph – or even 90 mph – to get Major League Baseball hitters out. Prior to 2009, Pucetas had a 32-7 career record with an ERA of 2.34 in more than 340 pro innings. He’s continuing to thrive this season in triple-A so a big-league call may come sooner rather than later. The 24-year-old hurler has allowed 71 hits in 76.2 innings of work with rates of 2.27 BB/9 and 5.63 K/9. Pucetas has an outside shot as a No. 4 starter, but he’s probably earmarked for a middle relief role in the big leagues.

After a week’s hiatus due to a busy schedule, we’re back with the weekly Minor Impacts, which is a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have an impact at the Major League Level in 2009.

Nolan Reimold: This talented player is absolutely killing the ball in Triple-A with a triple-slash line of .396/.484/.755 in 106 at-bats. Left field has been a black hole for the big-league club in 2009. However, 1+1 does not always equal 2 in Baltimore, no doubt much to Reimold’s chagrin. Felix Pie is hitting .180 and Lou Montanez is a bench player. It’s time to see what the former second-round pick (2005) can do – and at 25 years old Reimold’s not getting any younger.

Gorkys Hernandez: This 21-year-old outfielder is also having a nice showing in the minors, although he’s currently playing in double-A. Hernandez is hitting .331/.391/.421 with seven steals in 31 games. He plays good defense, as well. Unfortunately, he still strikes out too much for a player with his skill set, but he can’t do much worse than current Braves center-fielder and rookie Jordan Schafer, who is striking out almost 40% of the time.

Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, and Todd Frazier: The Reds organization is about to have another glut of outfielders. No fewer than three outfielders are currently knocking on the big league door but there isn’t room for everyone. Perhaps the club should look to cash in on some of this depth to help out in the pitching department. Stubbs, 24, is hitting .333/.412/.467 in triple-A and has made strides in his strikeout rate. Chris Heisey, 24, has long been an underdog, but he just keeps hitting and is currently at .374/.471/.626 with a BB/K rate of 1.90 in double-A. Frazier, who converted to the outfield from third base this season, is batting .281/.314/.422 but has as much – or more – potential as the other two hotter hitters.

Chris Tillman: The Baltimore starting rotation is an ugly, ugly place to be these days, but Tillman could make things a lot more bearable in the near future. Only 21, the right-hander is dominating triple-A hitters and currently has a 2.03 ERA after allowing just 24 hits in 31 innings of work. His walk rate is a respectable 3.48 BB/9 and his strikeout rate is excellent at 10.74 K/9. Tillman has also not allowed a home run despite allowing more flyball outs than ground outs.

Vince Mazzaro: With so many young pitchers already having surfaced in Oakland this season, it’s hard to believe there are more on the horizon but there are and Mazzaro is leading the charge. He’s flown under the radar so far in his pro career despite the fact he was selected out of high school in the third round of the 2005 draft. Mazzaro is not flashy and he’s not a strikeout pitcher (6.81 K/9 in triple-A) but he gets a ton of groundball outs.

Honorable Mention: Jake Fox, a converted catcher, is not really a prospect anymore. He’s 26 years old and he can’t really play a position – not even first base. With that said, though, he can absolutely crush the ball and he’s hitting an unbelievable .402/.483/.941 with 14 homers in 102 at-bats. The Cubs should do him a favor and either release him or trade him to a needy American League club so he can at least prove that he’s nothing more than a future Japanese export or a quad-A slugger. In the last article we plugged Josh Whitesell as a player who needed a break and he was called up by Arizona, so here’s hoping lightning strikes twice.