There is still a smorgasbord of outfield and middle-infield waiver wire options. Let’s sort using 20% ownership in Yahoo leagues as our qualifier.
Using a combination of contact percentage and isolated slugging, here is the 2015 zCt+zISO leader board:
Between unforeseen injuries and under-performances, the Blue Jays slogged through a season below expectations. The team won only 74 games after being a popular postseason selection in most preseason projections. Jose Reyes only played a half-season due to injury, while guys like R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle were unable to post ERAs under 4.00. In many ways, it was a season-long nightmare that wasn’t supposed to happen.
Heading into the 2014 season, Toronto could be flying under the radar due to their disappointing performance a year ago. The top half of the everyday lineup appears to be plenty potent, and if the organization can land either Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana, their starting rotation has a shot to be roughly league-average (assuming some bounce-back for Dickey and Buehrle). Such a combination could allow them to threaten for one of the two Wild Card slots if their bullpen performs well.
The fantasy outlook for the infield, on the other hand, is a bit of a mixed bag. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Reyes should be high on fantasy owners’ draft boards, while players such as Ryan Goins and Dioner Navarro probably aren’t ownable in standard leagues.
Joe Mauer just hit the 7-day concussion DL, joining the likes of Alex Avila, John Jaso, Miguel Montero, and even Carlos Corporan as the list of injured catchers grows in seemingly exponential fashion. With a little more than a month to go in roto league and the playoffs coming in head to head play, you’re going to need to start filling in the blanks on your roster in order to press ahead and try to win your league. There’s probably not a whole heck of a lot left sitting on your waiver wire and what’s there probably doesn’t conjure up images of champagne corks popping and ticker-tape parades. But you need to make a move. You can’t go without a catcher even though the improvement you get might not be all that much. But at this point in time, something is better than nothing, so here are a few names to consider… Read the rest of this entry »
With the non-waiver trade deadline just one week away, fantasy owners should be preparing themselves for the potential upheaval caused by the abundant player movement we are likely to see. While trades have been known to pop up from nowhere, usually, through the vast media coverage of buyers and sellers, we can see where most of the action is going to come from and which players are most likely to find themselves with a change of address. The catchers, for example, are known to be a rather uninspiring group for both trade possibilities and fantasy ramifications at this time. Still, there just might be a few names who could be on the move that would change things up for fantasy rosters and cause a bit of an impact. Read the rest of this entry »
First off, a very hearty congratulations to the St. Louis Cardinals on their hard-fought 2011 World Series championship. That was certainly a performance for the ages, from the late season comeback to steal the Wild Card spot to the Game 6 heroics that helped push the Series to the brink. But while the conclusion of the World Series brings the end of the 2011 season, it also brings us to the official beginning of the 2012 season. That’s right, it’s free agency time! The Hot Stove League can be one of the most exciting times as teams get ready to rebuild for a run at next season’s championship. It also keeps us fantasy leaguers on our toes as we too try to rebuild and prepare for a run at our own title next year. Players have officially filed, so let’s take a look at the fee agent catchers and whose potential move could have notable fantasy impact. Read the rest of this entry »
As the MLB non-waiver trade deadline approaches, fantasy owners should be paying close attention to which teams may be buyers, which teams may be sellers, and which relevant fantasy players could be on the move. A look at which players whose contracts expire at season’s end and are headed into free agency is as good a place to start as any. Read the rest of this entry »
On Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays picked up arbitration-eligible catcher Kelly Shoppach from the Cleveland Indians for a PTBNL.
With switch-hitting force Carlos Santana knocking on the big league door and Lou Marson having been snagged from the Phillies at last year’s trade deadline, the Indians are still sitting pretty behind the dish.
Dan Budreika covered Shoppach’s fantasy value a few days back. Shoppach’s lines were aided by exceptionally high BABIP figures from 2006-2008, before coming back down to earth in 2009. He still projects to be a quality backstop, with CHONE calling for a .229/.322/.422 line in 2010. For reference, the average MLB catcher batted .254/.320/.395 in 2009.
The addition of Shoppach in Tampa leaves incumbent Dioner Navarro looking like a prime candidate to change zip codes this offseason. The former Yankee and Dodger had a nice season at the plate in 2008, but he tanked in ’09. What happened, and what can we expect from Navarro going forward?
The switch-hitter’s BABIP has been all over the place over the past three seasons: .253 in 2007, .321 in 2008 and just .233 in 2009. As a guy who doesn’t walk all that much (career 7.6 BB%) or hit for much power (career .111 ISO), Navarro is subject to the caprices of his batting average. His wOBA figures from ’07 to ’09 reflect this: .280 in ’07, .330 in ’08 and .258 in ’09.
Using an expected BABIP calculator from The Hardball Times, we can get a better picture of what Navarro’s BABIP projects to be based on his batted ball profile.
According to the tool, here are Navarro’s XBABIP figures over the past three seasons:
2007: .304
2008: .311
2009: .292
The XBABIP tool portrays Navarro as having a BABIP around the .300 mark over the past three years, compared to an actual figure of .271. His career BABIP is .279. Perhaps Navarro has been somewhat unlucky. But he does possess two traits of a low BABIP hitter: he runs like a catcher (career 2.5 Speed Score-the MLB avg. is around five) and he pops the ball up a lot (career 13 infield/fly ball percentage). In fact, Navarro’s IF/FB% has skyrocketed:
2007: 10.5%
2008: 14%
2009: 18%
Another negative trend for Navarro is his plate discipline. He walked in over 10 percent of his PA between the Dodgers and Rays in 2005 and 2006, but has progressively become more of a hacker:
Navi drew ball four 7.8% of the time in ’07, 7.4% in ’08 and just 4.6% in ’08. Not surprisingly, his outside swing percentage spiked this past year. He went fishin’ out of the strike zone 28.4% of the time, compared to the 25% MLB average and Navarro’s career 23.4% mark.
Clearly, Navarro was a mess in the batter’s box in 2009. It’s reasonable to expect his BABIP to bounce back up next year, though a number in the .270’s might be more reasonable than the .300 that the XBABIP tool suggests. Bill James projects a .254/.315/.367 line in 2010. CHONE gives a similar .254/.312/.377 triple-slash.
Twenty-six in February, the arbitration-eligible Navarro is a good bet to be traded or non-tendered in the near future. If he lands in a spot where playing time is plentiful, he’s going to have to rediscover his strike-zone judgment to be of use to his new employers and fantasy owners alike.
Stock Up
Garrett Jones, Pirates
Who? Mr. Jones is a 28 year-old lefty hitter who had a bitter cup of coffee with the Twins back in 2007 (.260 wOBA in 84 PA). The hulking 6-4, 230 pounder is one of many kinda-sorta-maybe corner outfielders getting a chance at playing time in Pittsburgh (Brandon Moss and Delwyn Young are also in the mix). Jones has responded by thwacking 5 home runs in his first 46 PA. While he could be a cheap source of power and has a good chance of keeping his name in the lineup, I would hesitate against getting too enthralled. Jones is a career .258/.312/.450 minor league hitter who has taken 5 tours of the AAA International League. His rest-of-season ZiPS projection (.257/.309/.455, 6.7 BB%) essentially makes Jones look like Pittsburgh’s version of Micah Hoffpauir.
Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
Sanchez was booted from San Fran’s rotation, only to be returned to the starting five in the aftermath of Randy Johnson ’s shoulder injury. I think Jonathan, uh, responded well. The gifted, aggravating 26 year-old tossed a no-no versus the Padres, punching out 11 in the process. It’s anyone’s guess as to how the Puerto Rican native pitches in his next outing, though. Equipped with low-90’s cheese and a plus slider (+1.84 runs/100 pitches), Sanchez has punched out 9.04 hitters per nine innings. However, his walk rate (5.26 BB/9) leaves owners pulling out their hair. Whether the 6-2, 190 pounder remains in Giants duds past the deadline remains to be seen, but he should continue taking regular turns in the rotation regardless.
Pablo Sandoval, Giants
Pablo is no stranger to the “Stock Up” section, but his scorching first-half deserves special mention. As a 22 year-old, Sandoval has posted a .406 wOBA, ripping the seams of the ball to the tune of a .333/.385/.578 line. While the 5-11, 245 pound corner infielder will never be called restrained at the plate, he has shown promising signs in terms of working the count. Sandoval’s walk rate has climbed from 2.7% in 2008 to 7.3% this year, with a drop in his percentage of swings outside of the strike zone (53.8% to 45.3%). As a result, Pablo’s first-pitch strike percentage has dipped from 70.8% to 59.4% (58% MLB average).
Sandoval has contributed 21.3 park-adjusted Batting Runs above average for the Giants. The rest of San Francisco’s usual starting lineup has posted a collective -18.5 Batting Runs. Let that sink in for a moment.
David Price, Rays
In 2009, Price has been a Three True Outcomes pitcher. While the abundance of whiffs (9.61 K/9) highlight the talent that made the Vanderbilt star the most celebrated pitching prospect in the minors, Price has also handed out free passes (6.34 BB/9) and souvenirs (1.43 HR/9) far too often. Perhaps Price has begun to turn the corner, as he outdueled Doc Halladay on July 9th (6 IP, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K). The 23 year-old southpaw will likely toss the occasional stinker as he gains his big league footing, but there’s still every reason to think he’ll be an integral part of Tampa’s rotation. If Price can get ahead of hitters more frequently (his first-pitch strike percentage is just 53.9%), he should be able to garner more swings on pitches off the plate (his outside-swing percentage is only 18.6%, compared to the 25% MLB avg).
Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
Formerly property of Oakland, Texas, Cleveland and Detroit, Ludwick had saw career stagnate as he dealt with the effects of a serious hip injury. The righty-hitting, lefty-chucking outfielder then revived his baseball ambitions in St. Louis, posting a .350 wOBA in 2007 and a monstrous .406 mark in 2008. While last year was almost assuredly a peak season, the 31 year-old Ludwick (Happy Birthday, Ryan!) has rebounded from some BABIP-induced valleys (.716 OPS, .156 BABIP in May, .622 OPS, .219 BABIP in June) to crush the ball for a 1.243 OPS in July. His production for the season (.357 wOBA, .264/.333/.496) is a good match for his ’07 work. ZiPS sees Ludwick performing slightly better from here on out (.368 wOBA, .273/.345/.510).
Stock Down
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers
Salty has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many this season. The 24 year-old, switch-hitting backstop was the best-known prospect in the July 2007, gift-that-keeps-on-giving Mark Teixeira swap. However, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus are running circles around Saltalamacchia these days.
Salty didn’t show much pop in his trial with Texas last year (.319 wOBA, .244/.352/.365) and he whiffed like Chris Davis lite (37.4 K%), but he did work the count well (13.5 BB%). This year, he has kept the punch outs (36.3 K%) but dropped the patient approach (6.8 BB%). His O-Swing% has soared from 26.2% to 34.6%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 53% to 64%. The result? A putrid .288 wOBA. There’s still time for Salty, but he’s going to have to halt the Eric Munson impersonation.
Jason Giambi, Athletics
As Dave Cameron pointed out last month, the baseball community has an Adam Everett-like batting average when it comes to identifying when an older player is “done.” There’s usually a rush to attribute poor performance in baseball’s elder statesmen to a loss in skill, and sometimes that’s correct. But other times, Jim Edmonds or Gary Sheffield gets released and then starts partying like it’s 1999.
All of this is a long-winded way of saying that I’m not quite ready to write Giambi’s hardball eulogy; many of you will remember that he looked washed up a half-decade ago and then resumed raking. But the 38 year-old looks cooked. His performance against fastballs has cratered (-0.50 runs/100 pitches, compared to +1.01 in 2008), and things are only getting worse as the months roll by:
Giambi’s Runs/100 pitches against fastballs, by month
April: +0.24
May: -0.17
June: -0.56
July: -3.97
If one wishes to be optimistic, his .217 BABIP is nearly 40 points lower than 2008’s mark. Giambi could bounce back, but I wouldn’t bet on it. ZiPS projects a .213/.347/.404 line the rest of the way. That’s just not very useful at a position where the average player boasts a .276/.363/.485 triple-slash.
Ervin Santana, Angels
(I don’t have anything against the AL West-I swear!)
On the heels of a dominant 2008 season in which he compiled a 3.30 FIP, Santana has gotten roped for a 5.72 FIP in 40.1 innings. Pitching with a damaged elbow ligament, Ervin just isn’t nearly the same hurler who used a wicked mid-90’s fastball and biting slider to punch out 8.79 batters per nine innings in 2008. Santana’s velocity is down over 3 ticks this year (94.4 MPH to 91 MPH), with a 2-3 MPH dip on the slider (83.9 MPH to 81.4).
Santana’s heater has been the worst among any starter chucking at least 40 frames (a stunning -4.1 runs/100 pitches, after a +0.11 mark in ’08). Hitters are making more contact (84.2% contact rate, up from 77.1% in ’08) and swinging at fewer outside pitches (24.7% in ’09, 31.7% in ’08). Santana looks like damaged goods.
Kevin Millwood, Rangers
Millwood’s regression shouldn’t come as a complete surprise, as his ERA was far surpassing his peripherals. There’s still a sizable gap between his ERA (3.46) and FIP (4.73), but it has lessened after Millwood surrendered 17 earned runs over his past 17.1 innings. Texas’ slick leather (8th in team UZR) helps a pitch-to-contact hurler like Millwood, but he’s more serviceable mid-rotation starter than ace.
Dioner Navarro, Rays
The 25 year-old Navarro performed admirably for the Rays in 2008 (.330 wOBA), but the former Yankee and Dodger has plummeted to a .256 mark this season. He’s not getting many bounces (.245 BABIP), but Navarro’s plate discipline is non-existent (2.8 BB% in 2009, 7.4% in ’08). His outside-swing% is up from 23.2% to 27.2%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 52.8% to 57.5%. Navarro was worth 2.7 Wins Above Replacement in 2008, but he has been sub-replacement level in ’09 (-0.1 WAR).