Archive for Dexter Fowler

The Chicago Cubs acquired another major league asset this past weekend, this time via trade, albeit at the price of one of those as well as a possible other. Nevertheless, Dexter Fowler isn’t quite the same kind of asset as Luis Valbuena or Dan Straily, because Fowler plays center field and has generally in his career been cast as a leadoff man, something that his new club sort of lacked. Although Joe Maddon has reportedly taken a liking to Arismendy Alcantara, the up-and-coming Cubbies, understandably, weren’t ready to depend on the 23-year-old to produce as a one-position regular on offense in such an important year.

My reaction to the news included a little raised interest in Fowler in fantasy baseball leagues, I think. Moves like this usually don’t have a drastic effect on a player’s quote-unquote value, though. I’m a little puzzled as to whether my feeling was justified.

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Relevance in baseball and relevance in fantasy baseball are two completely different things. While the Houston Astros themselves haven’t been relevant to the real baseball world since the Biggio and Bagwell days, there have been a few players from Houston who have done right by the fantasy community. Just because their team sucks, doesn’t mean they do. You have to look at it like stripping down a car and selling off the parts. Collectively, they aren’t worth much, but separately, you’ve got some real nice value to be had. And so it is with the Astros outfield. On the whole, it’s not looking too good and there are numerous other outfields you’d rather see on your favorite team. But fantasy-wise, there’s still hope. Read the rest of this entry »

In the coming weeks, we’ll be covering each team’s potential depth charts in an effort to shine a spotlight on the interesting playing time battles that will be waged this spring. Obviously none of these depth charts are set in stone — rather they should function to focus your attention in the right places to find cheap fantasy value.

The Rockies’ outfield projects to provide ample fantasy value this upcoming season. In 2012, their outfield combined to compile a .286/.349/.482 slash line, and their combined .357 wOBA ranked the best in all of baseball. And with both Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler in their respective primes, it doesn’t appear fantasy owners should be shying away from the Rocky Mountain Outfield on draft day anytime soon.

Despite the fact that Dexter Fowler appears to have the center field position on lockdown, the depth chart isn’t devoid of potential movement. The Rockies still could have a handful of players jockeying for playing time at the corner outfield positions if everything breaks correctly, and as always, injuries will ultimately play a factor in how many at-bats are available to players.

Here are some storylines to which fantasy owners should be paying attention this upcoming season.

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For most of his three full seasons in the big leagues prior to 2012, Dexter Fowler had been a decent (if unexciting) placeholder in the middle of the Colorado outfield. His wOBA marks of .345, .335, & .346 between 2009-11 were roughly average, and while he chipped in a few steals (52 over the three seasons) and a nice amount of triples (39), he was generally an unremarkable player, held back largely by a strikeout rate (23.1% last year) that usually only works when it’s balanced out by considerable power. Last June, he really hit rock bottom when instead of rejoining the Rockies after recovering from an abdominal injury, he was optioned back to Triple-A. And why not? At the time, he was hitting just .238/.340/.348 with only two successful steals in eight attempts.

Fowler even struggled back in the minors, hitting only .237/.345/.381 in 27 games for Colorado Springs. When he returned to the Rockies after the All-Star Break, it was less because he had forced his way back and more because Carlos Gonzalez had been dealing with a sore wrist, creating a need for another outfielder. But Fowler doubled in his first game back and scored ten runs in his first eight games; over the remainder of the season, he was a new player, hitting .288/.381/.498 with 37 extra-base hits and ten steals.

Despite his hot finish to 2011, few believed he’d suddenly turned a corner. At Yahoo!, for example, he was ranked as the 48th-best outfielder heading into 2012; here at FanGraphs, our consensus rankings placed him 62nd. Yet here we are, two months into 2012, and Fowler has the sixth-highest wOBA of any qualified outfielder, a ranking which had been third overall before Tuesday’s hitless outing.

Should we have seen this coming?

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Continuing with our look at the RotoGraphs Reader Mock Draft, here’s a glance at Rounds 17-20.  Since risk is much less of a concern this far down in the draft, I’ll just highlight my favorite pick in the round followed up with some thoughts on some of the other selections. Read the rest of this entry »

As you’re tweaking your lineup here and there, looking for a way to steal some points from your opponents, check out how adding some stolen bases to your squad can help you out.  It always seems to be a very movable category in roto leagues and an often disregarded category in head to head.  Adding an extra stolen base guy can give you a nice cheap way to to boost you in the category while also helping you out in areas like runs scored and even batting average.  Here’s a pair of speedsters that seem to be available in plenty of leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Francisco Liriano – He has run hot and cold this year. In his last four games, Liriano is 0-3 with a 4.68 ERA, which cost him a shot at the All-Star game. But Liriano has also enjoyed two different hot streaks this year and overall he has a sparkling 2.88 xFIP and a nice 9.88 K/9. According to the price guide over at Last Player Picked, Liriano has been worth $11 this year, far off the $30+ pace of Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez. While he may not be quite in their class, do not be afraid to pay more than $11 in value to acquire Liriano for the rest of the season.

Ricky Nolasco – One of the most volatile players in fantasy baseball the past few years, Nolasco has really disappointed owners who valued him at 2009’s 3.28 xFIP. But given his streaky nature, now might be the ideal time to take a flyer on him. In his last 30 games, Nolasco has a 27.3 HR/FB rate, easily the highest in the majors. If he can get the HR under control, Nolasco could shave a run or more off his ERA going forward. He is not the strikeout pitcher he was last year, but a 7.64 K/9 is nothing to dismiss lightly.

Kurt Suzuki – The good news this year is that Suzuki is continuing to add to his HR power. In his first full season in the majors he had a 4.2 HR/FB rate. Last year it was 8.0 and so far this year it is 11.2 percent. But injuries and a .240 BABIP have held down his overall value this year. Suzuki appears over the injured ribs that sidelined him earlier in the year. Now he just needs to have a little better luck on balls in play.

SELL

David DeJesus – One of the players rumored to be on the trading block in MLB, DeJesus should be shopped in fantasy, too. He is a good fantasy player because he contributes in all five categories. The problem is that he does not really excel in any of them. He will reach double-digits in both HR and SB, but just barely in each of them. Right now he is very valuable thanks to his .329 AVG. But that was produced with a .366 BABIP, 44 points above his lifetime mark. ZiPS sees him hitting 30 points lower the rest of the way and even that lower mark is still 9 points above his lifetime mark.

Mat Latos – He has been everything his owners have expected and more so far this season. In his last 11 games, Latos is 8-1 with a 1.60 ERA and has 74 Ks in 73.1 IP. That stretch has been fueled by a .212 BABIP and he has allowed just 2 HR in that span. Obviously he will not be able to keep that pace going for the remainder of the season. The other red flag surrounding Latos is the unknown about how much he will pitch the rest of the way. He had injury problems in the minors and earlier in the year the Padres said they would be careful with his workload in the second half. That may go out the window with the team involved in a pennant race but it is still something that fantasy owners need to concerned with in August and September.

Joel Pineiro – In his last six games, Pineiro is 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA. That hot streak has brought his ERA (3.96) in perfect alignment with both his FIP (3.95) and xFIP (3.93). So, while he was a bit unlucky early in the season, regression has hit for Pineiro. In his career, Pineiro has a 4.36 ERA, which is essentially what ZiPS projects for him the rest of the season. If you do hold him, you will want to play matchups the rest of the way. Pineiro has a 2.22 ERA at home and a 6.80 mark on the road.

HUNCH

Dexter Fowler – After not hitting the first two months of the season, Colorado sent Fowler to the minors. In Triple-A this year he put up a .340/.435/.566 line in 124 PA before being recalled by the Rockies. While Colorado already had a full outfield, which forced Seth Smith and Ryan Spillborghs to vie for time, Fowler was immediately inserted into the lineup as leadoff hitter. He has picked up right where he left off in the minors, with 10 hits in his first 24 ABs. I like Fowler to win a starting job the rest of the season and to exceed his ZiPS projection of 221 PA the rest of the way. I also think he will hit better than his .255 projection and exceed 9 SB.

It’s a holiday weekend, and in the honor of National Lampoon and holiday/family misadventures everywhere, let’s lead this off with a song and a couple of players that might help fantasy owners on the run:

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers (37% owned)
Trolling for saves is no exact science. We’ve tried using strikeout rates, walk rates, leverage index, ‘thinking stupid,’ and even fingers in the wind to predict closers in the past. Put this post in the latter category. John Axford has done nothing wrong – well, not quite nothing, he does own a 4.50 walk rate that might make sustaining his current performance level difficult, especially if it starts to approach his higher walk rates of the past – but sometimes doing nothing wrong is not good enough. Even though he hasn’t blown a save yet, and is probably the future at the position for Milwaukee, there’s the little matter of the former closer behind him. Not only has Hoffman turned in eight straight innings with only one run surrendered, but he’s also only four saves short of 600. Milwaukee might turn to the Hoff to boost late-season attendance in his run at glory. Stranger things have happened, and Axford owners at the very least should pick up the legendary change-piecer.

Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies (5% owned)
Sometimes you just have to keep plucking that chicken. About a month ago, we recommended Fowler in this space, and he promptly sucked for a while and was sent down. Well, at least he raked… in AAA. In 124 plate appearances, he put up a .340/.435/.566 that showed his team that he had little to figure out in the minor leagues. He’s still a member of one of the more crowded houses in the league, as Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Carlos Gonzalez and Brad Hawpe are all are above-average hitters. Fowler is strong against lefties, though, and in a worst-case scenario, he’ll be a caddy for Smith against lefties. However, Todd Helton has lost all his power (.066 ISO) and is a terrible offensive first baseman right now. The team might best be served (even defensively) by putting Hawpe at first many days, which would open up more at-bats for Fowler. In any case, Fowler has been up and has been playing. He’s played in every game since he’s come back up, and was six for his last eight. Guess finally trying out AAA for the first time did him some good. With his five-tool upside, he’s worth a flier in deeper leagues for sure.

After a short slate of games on Monday, the news is light. We persevere to find you some waiver nuggets for your pleasure.

Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies (7% owned)
First, the flaws in the pro-Fowler case. He’s still striking out too much (25.8%), still having trouble against right-handed pitching (.537 OPS this year, .662 career), and still in a crowded outfield. The thing is, in many a deep league you still need to have a bench. And on that bench you could maybe use a bat that acts predictably in certain situations. Well, Fowler is a cheap bat that you can easily slot in against lefties. Look at his current OPS (.980), career OPS (.880) and career minor league OPS (.843) against lefties and you’ll see a pattern. Add in that he actually had a higher OPS against righties in the minor leagues (.859) and you have your ‘upside.’ In daily-lineup leagues, Fowler is a useful bench bat still, and could be more later.

Will Ohman, Baltimore Orioles (4% owned)
The merry-go-round in Baltimore went around another turn when Alfredo “Shutdown Sauce” Simon had to shutdown his sauce with a hammy injury. Incumbent closer Mike Gonzalez is at least still two weeks away from returning, and fellow Candidate Koji Uehara had to join Simon on the DL with some arm issues. No one wants to step forward and save this island. No matter, the O’s announced that saves would go to Ohman in the interim, and those desperate for saves will be forgiven for picking him up. The lefty is better suited to be a LOOGY (3.57 xFIP versus lefties, 4.87 xFIP versus righties) and his career ground ball percentage (39.9%) suggests that despite his good FIP (2.71) that home run rate (0) won’t last and it’s the xFIP (3.83) that better predicts his success. It’s okay. It’s only for a couple weeks and maybe four or five saves at best. They still count.

Reid Brignac, Tampa Bay Rays, (2% owned)
You, like me, might have some barely startable flotsam or jetsam in one of your MI spots currently. Well, consider Brignac, who looks like he might be getting the lion’s share of at-bats at second base in Tampa. The respective UZR numbers for the possibilities at the position are too small to cite, but as the chunk of his defensive experience at shortstop is a little more recent than Ben Zobrist’s, it might make sense that his infield D is a little better. Or perhaps Brignac is not comfortable in the outfield and Zobrist is a jack of all trades. In the end, though, it’s less about his competition at second base – whiff machine Sean Rodriguez (41.4% K%) most likely – and more about the fact that there are a paucity of options in right field that causes manager Joel Maddon to put Brignac in the lineup. Gabe Kapler is semi-decent against lefties, but is better served as a backup OF. Rodriguez is also playing against lefties and doing pretty well this year (.897 OPS). But against righties, it looks like Brignac is getting some playing time. Which makes him interesting, because he’s always been okay against righties – see his pop (.186 career minor league ISO) and overall numbers (career .799 OPS) against pitchers of that handedness.

This post comes to you all the way from Tokyo town. I just flew here today (yesterday? tomorrow?) and boy are my arms tired. (badum-ching!) As you can tell, it’s been a looong day. Let me quickly get to a couple waiver wire ideas before I pass out.

Shaun Marcum
Our shallow league special won’t be on the wire long, but if you missed out, don’t worry. There’s plenty of reasons to be suspicious of Mr. Marcum. First, even before he missed all of 2009 with elbow surgery, he hasn’t been the picture of health. His major league high is 159 major league innings in a season, and 168 total innings in a season. He doesn’t have a nice K/9 (7.13 career) or ground ball rate (40.3% career), and though his career ERA looks okay (3.95), his career FIP is much less interesting (4.81). That’s probably because he’s somehow managed to put together 400+ innings with a .273 BABIP. In his first start he had a sparkling .068 BABIP even. If it wasn’t such an obvious idea, actually, it seems that the best move here would be to sell high. Here’s a bet his ERA ends up in the low 4s where it belongs with his peripherals.

Dexter Fowler
It takes a little deeper bench in order to take advantage of the fact that Fowler is being summarily dropped in many leagues, but the reward is there for the patient manager. While Seth Smith is definitely a nice pickup in most leagues since he’s getting the lion’s share of at-bats by taking on righties, Fowler is not yet chopped liver. Obviously, the team is looking at Fowler’s nice .322/.374/.470 major league line against lefties (and his correspondingly putrid .228/.343/.353 line against righties) and making what they believe to be the best short-term move for the team. The problem is that this split has only come in 461 total major league at-bats (which is not a significant level for splits like these), and his minor league splits were non-existent (.843 OPS vs lefties, .859 OPS vs righties). Expect Fowler’s upside to will out and force some sort of move by management (Brad Hawpe, I’m looking at you), and in the meantime, just put him on your bench and slot him in against lefties. You’ll enjoy both short- and long-term return.

Scott Downs
The deep league special is a speculative play based on an incredibly tiny sample size seen in one light. Yes, Jason Frasor blew one save. And yes, it’s one inning. And yes, he probably won’t be removed from the closer’s role in Toronto today. On the other hand, Downs has been amazingly consistent for three years now (FIPs around 3.33 all three years), and managers love consistency. Compare Frasor’s range on his FIPs (2.99 to 4.55) and you’ll see that it’s not at all assured who’s going to have the better year in that pen this year. Throw in the fact that Frasor has been linked to the Twins in trade rumors, and Downs looks like a good bet if you’re a-speculatin’.