Archive for desmond jennings

It’s easy to be tempted to overreact to the small sample size of strong performances very early in the season. Like many fantasy pundits before me, I’ll continue the tradition of preaching patience with your best players and your preseason evaluations. That doesn’t mean, however, that you should be sitting on your hands. Three things I keep tabs on especially closely in the first few weeks of the season are PITCHf/x data, lineup constructions and playing time distribution. Colleague Scott Spratt tackled fastball leaders in the bullpen and Jeff Sullivan discussed velocity in depth relating to King Felix’s first start. I wont’ tackle PITCHf/x data in this piece — as others have done so already — but I will look at a few playing time situations that might be sorting themselves out as well as a few players whose stock is on the rise as a result of their lineup spot.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Friday, Adam McFadden wrote a piece in which he recommended nine players owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Adam’s work inspired me to do some digging of my own, and I managed to find some more widely unowned players who could give your team a serious boost down the stretch.

~

He’s Back!

Drew Smyly (47%) – Although he looked pretty rusty in his first start since May on Sunday, Smyly needs to be owned pretty much across the board. He was dropped in a ton of leagues when he tore his labrum, to the point where he’s available in over half of Yahoo leagues. Dropping him was understandable, as the Rays initially said he was out for the year, only to retract that statement a week later.

I managed to snag him in a 12-team mixer where he had gone unnoticed on the waiver wire. Maybe you can too.

Read the rest of this entry »

And by does it, I mean that he doesn’t. Unless we’re talking about disappointing fantasy baseball players, in which case: repeat performance. The Tampa Bay Rays’ center fielder hit .244 with 10 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 542 plate appearances in a dull campaign. He finished the season on the disabled list, of course, so if we extrapolate to 600 PAs, which is about how many he accumulated in the season prior, then he’d have recorded 11 homers, 71 runs, 40 RBIs, and 17 thefts, all of which are about … worse than how many he accumulated in the season prior.

Why does Desmond Jennings continue to disappoint? It’s a valid question. It may not have a simple answer. But, just as well, it might.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 95

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Texas Rangers and the Tampa Bay Rays.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music Approximately 62 min of joyous analysis.

ADP results from NFBC

As we continue our leisurely stroll through the depth charts, we find ourselves in Tampa Bay where the Rays outfield is looking awfully similar to the 2012 version. Same names, same faces, but with one minor exception. Whether it’s May or June or even after the All Star Break, the Rays will likely make a change that should provide them with a substantial power boost. The wait could finally be over. He’ll be here soon. Read the rest of this entry »

During the Keeper Conundrum series, I got some nice suggestions in the comments. Today, I continue my look at some of your ideas.

Travis Snider
Snider made some nice strides on the field this year, but he had a hard time staying in the lineup. He improved his contact rate, started to hit lots of liners, and still showed us that he can hit for power. He’s really young (will be 23 next season), and I think he’ll continue to get better next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.335, 24 HR
Verdict: Keep. I don’t know if he plays a full season, but I’m not banking on it. He’s a nice risk to take, and a good piece to keep in your possession.

Jay Bruce
I thought he was going to hit 30+ homers this season, as did most people, and his ADP reflected that. He ended up doing pretty well for himself, and a big August and September will drive his value up once again. He has the potential to consistently hit 30 bombs, but please remember that he’s only 23 at the moment.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.365, 30 HR
Verdict: Keep. He’s only a year or two from putting it all together and getting picked in the third or fourth round.

Desmond Jennings
Everyone thinks that he’ll be handed the LF job once Crawford signs elsewhere this winter, and there’s no reason to think otherwise. His value comes down to how you think he’ll adjust to major league pitching, because we know he can run if he just reaches base.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.340, 5 HR, 30 SB
Verdict: Keep. Personally, I don’t like keeping guys just for steals, but I’m not going to let my prejudice tell dictate my response here.

Andre Ethier
The Dodgers outfielder started out hot, but had some injury troubles and cooled off later in the year. He still ended the year with over 20 bombs, a good average and respectable counting stats. He’s right in the middle of his peak, so now’s the time to own him.
Crude 2011 Projection: .290/.365, 28 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. Odds are that you got him in the seventh round, and that price is right. It’s no bargain, but you’re not overpaying.

Thanks for all the suggestions this week, and check back tomorrow for part three of your requests.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Desmond Jennings: When a left shoulder injury wiped out most of Jennings’ 2007 season, it stood to reason that the talented outfielder’s timetable would get pushed back. However, no one told Jennings. The 22-year-old picked up right where he left off in 2007. In fact, his two triple-slash lines are almost eerily similar to this point:

.315/.401/.465 (in 387 at-bats at high-A in 2007)
.316/.395/.486 (in 383 at-bats at double-A in 2009)

Even Jennings’ walk rates and strikeout rates are similar. His wOBA, though, has improved from .399 to .415. With 100 games under his belt in double-A, Rays management recently promoted Jennings to triple-A. In four games, he’s hitting .250 with a double, four Ks and a couple of stolen bases. Defensively, the center fielder has good range and an average arm. He may get a taste of the Majors this September and Jennings should be ready to contribute on a regular basis by mid-2010. That would give the Rays an incredibly athletic outfield with Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton already on hand.

Jose Tabata: Like Jennings, this former Yankees’ prospect has also benefited from a recent promotion to triple-A. Tabata battled injuries (and the tabloids, thanks to his wife) early on in the season before establishing himself at double-A with a line of .303/.370/.404 with two homers and seven steals (in 13 attempts) in 228 at-bats. The right-handed hitter has yet to show the power expected of him but he’s hitting for average and controlling the strike zone well (11 K%). At only 20 years of age, Tabata has time to learn to drive the ball over the fences with more regularity. Defensively, he is a good center fielder, but he won’t move Andrew McCutchen out of position in Pittsburgh. As a result, Tabata will probably end up in right field, thanks to his strong arm. When that happens, though, his lack of power will become even more evident.

Ian Desmond: We’ve been hearing hype on Desmond for a while now but the slick fielder is just beginning to justify that talk with his performance at the plate. After struggling to hit for average early in his career, the 23-year-old prospect his .306/.372/.494 with six homers and 13 steals in 170 at-bats in double-A. Desmond still needs to show a little more patience at the plate with a walk rate of just 8.6 BB%. Another word of warning: Desmond’s BABIP is much higher this season over his career norm. In two previous stints in double-A, his BABIPs were .256 and .296. This year it was .371. His offensive showing in double-A was good enough to get him promoted to triple-A where he is currently hitting .298/.420/.351 through 18 games. With the club having given a two-year extension through 2010 to incumbent shortstop Cristian Guzman, it buys Desmond a little more time to hone his batting skills in triple-A next year. However, an injury to Guzman (or perhaps a trade to free up his $8 million salary) could get Desmond to Washington by the end of July next year.

Jason Castro: The Astros organization has slowly been benefiting from its minor league system over the past few seasons and it has enjoyed contributions from players such as Hunter Pence and Bud Norris. Catcher Jason Castro – the club’s 2008 first-round pick – should be the next significant contributor after surpassing J.R. Towles as the club’s backstop of the future. Castro, 22, began the 2009 season in high-A and hit .309/.399/.517 with seven homers in 207 at-bats. The left-handed hitter was then moved up to double-A where he is currently hitting .304/.358/.405 with two homers in 148 at-bats. His power numbers were probably exaggerated a bit in high-A ball due to the fact he was playing in Lancaster (one of the best offensive parks in minor league ball) and his ISO has dropped from .208 in high-A to .101 in double-A. Regardless, he’s still an above-average offensive catcher who has really improved defensively behind the dish.

Jake Arrieta: With fellow pitching prospects Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman having recently arrived in the Majors, Arrieta is now waiting for his shot in Baltimore. The right-hander’s ceiling is not quite as high as the other two pitchers but he should slide into the No. 3 spot in the rotation very nicely. Arrieta, 23, began the year in double-A where he allowed 45 hits in 59 innings of work. He also posted rates of 3.51 BB/9 and 10.68 K/9. Promoted to triple-A, Arrieta has struggled a bit with 56 hits allowed in 51.2 innings. He’s posted a walk rate of 3.14 and a strikeout rate of 8.54 K/9. The right-hander has also allowed almost twice as many home runs but in eight fewer innings. His repertoire includes a fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a slider and a changeup.

Andrew Cashner: After having success in the bullpen in college, Cashner rose into the first round of the draft in 2008, which is where the Cubs organization nabbed him. He was moved into the starting rotation in pro ball to get more innings under his belt and he may end up sticking as a starter. Cashner began the year in high-A where he allowed 31 hits in 42 innings of work, while also posting a walk rate of 3.21 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.29 K/9. With a promotion to double-A, the right-hander has allowed just 14 hits in 24.2 innings. His rates have remained almost exactly the same. He’s also done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with just one homer allowed on the year. The Cubs rotation does not look as formidable as it once did so Cashner could help out sooner rather than later. With any luck, though, the organization will avoid bouncing him back and forth between the rotation and the ‘pen, which it did with Jeff Samardzija (with limited success). Cashner’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 97 mph (more often out of the ‘pen), a plus slider, and a changeup.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Brandon Snyder is only 22 years old, but he’s already come very close to being a first-round draft pick failure, after being selected in the 2005 draft out of a Virginia high school. Originally a catcher, Snyder was moved out from behind the plate and assigned to his new position of first base. Many scouts felt the right-handed hitter would never develop enough power to be an impact player at the position, especially after he hit just 36 home runs in his first four seasons, but those opinions are beginning to change. Now in double-A, Snyder has followed up a very solid 2008 season with a true breakout season. He’s currently hitting .349/.421/.604 with 19 doubles and 10 home runs and 45 RBI in 192 at-bats. His ISO has increased each of the past three seasons from .138 to .175 to .255. The high average is probably a side effect of a lucky .404 BABIP, but the power looks like it might be for real.

Drew Stubbs, 24, is another former first round pick (eighth overall in 2006) who has been dogged by doubt throughout his career. The athletic outfielder has always oozed tools but he’s had difficulty translating that potential to the field. High strikeout rates were one of Stubbs’ biggest issues but he’s made some improvement after starting out with a 30.5 K% in 2006. His rate so far this season is 20.9 K%, with a respectable walk rate of 12.5 BB%. Stubbs has raw power too, but he’s still learning how to tap into that with just two homers but 18 doubles in 196 at-bats this season in triple-A. He has also stolen 23 bases in 27 attempts. Defensively, he is a good center field with excellent lateral range.

The Rays organization has a reputation for producing some pretty good outfield prospects and Desmond Jennings is the next in line. The 22-year-old prospect had a breakout 2007 season but then missed most of the 2008 season due to an ill-timed injury. Fully healthy in 2009, Jennings is on fire once again – this time in double-A. He’s currently hitting .327/.403/.518 with six homers and 22 stolen bases in 245 at-bats. Jennings has also struck out just 14.3% of the time. He’s also a gifted center fielder.

You’d think the Cincinnati Reds’ minor league system would start to slow down after producing the likes of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Johnny Cueto in the past few seasons, but the organization still has plenty of depth. At triple-A alone, the club has three relievers who could probably help a lot of MLB clubs right now in Josh Roenicke, Robert Manuel, and Pedro Viola. Each player in the trio was acquired by the organization through different means. Roenicke (whose brother Jason just made his season debut for the Jays’ low-A affiliate) was selected in the 10th round of the 2006 draft out of UCLA. The right-hander has posted solid numbers throughout his minor league career and has 54 saves in parts of four seasons. Roenicke, 26, has the stuff (a mid-to-high-90s fastball and good cutter) to be a useful MLB middle reliever. And we’ll find out soon enough. He was just recalled by the Reds last night.

Manuel, 25, was a non-drafted pitcher out of Sam Houston State University. He was signed by the Mets and traded to the Reds a year later for MLB pitcher David Williams. The right-hander has modest stuff but be just keeps getting results thanks to excellent command and control. He’s actually getting better as he ascends through the minors, having posted ERAs of 1.40 and 1.98 in the past two years in double-A and triple-A. He’s allowed just 81 hits in 123 innings during that time frame. Viola is the most interesting story of all. He originally signed with the San Francisco Giants as a position player but was released when he turned out to be older than he said. The Reds then took a flyer on him as a left-handed pitcher with a big-time fastball and strikeout slider. Despite being 25 already, he’s in just his third season in North America. Command and control continue to be his weaknesses.

The Giants organization has some pretty talented pitchers in its system so other players can sometimes get overlooked. Right-hander Kevin Pucetas has put up some solid career numbers despite having a below-average fastball. The pitcher works in the high 80s but he has plus command and excellent control (career walk rate of 1.8 BB/9). His changeup is a reliable out-pitch and he also utilizes two breaking balls. Pitchers like Mark Difelice and R.J. Swindle have proven that you don’t have to throw 95 mph – or even 90 mph – to get Major League Baseball hitters out. Prior to 2009, Pucetas had a 32-7 career record with an ERA of 2.34 in more than 340 pro innings. He’s continuing to thrive this season in triple-A so a big-league call may come sooner rather than later. The 24-year-old hurler has allowed 71 hits in 76.2 innings of work with rates of 2.27 BB/9 and 5.63 K/9. Pucetas has an outside shot as a No. 4 starter, but he’s probably earmarked for a middle relief role in the big leagues.