Archive for Derek Lowe

If you want to follow the action when Cleveland’s starters are on the bump in 2012, keep your eyes glued on the infield. The Indians exercised Fausto Carmona’s $7 million option for next season and then swung a trade with Atlanta for sinkerballer Derek Lowe. With Lowe joining Carmona, Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland’s starting rotation will wage one serious ground war. Lowe, Masterson and Carmona ranked in the top 10 among qualified starters in ground ball percentage, and all four have a career ground ball rate north of 50 percent:

Read the rest of this entry »

With the trade deadline fast approaching, owners playing in league-specific formats are going to be in for a hard time. When players change leagues, some owners are going to get hosed and some owners are going to get lucky. With all of that in mind, here’s some advice on how to handle a handful of starters who could get dealt.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ever since he became a full-time member of Red Sox the starting rotation in 2002, Derek Lowe has been one of the best in the game at eating innings and simply inducing ground balls. Lowe has made at least 32 starts every year since 2002, and has contributed at least 2.5 WAR each year.

During his early run as a starter, Lowe’s GB% bordered on the obscene. Prior to signing with the Braves in 2009, Lowe’s ground-ball rate never dipped below 60%, and it rose to 65% on four occasions. Frankly, if we compare Lowe’s current rates to what he did in the past, his recent performance has been unspectacular. How often can we say that about a pitcher who’s still getting grounders over 58% of the time?

From a fantasy angle, Lowe has always been a bit under appreciated. Since leaving the Red Sox, Lowe has never won a ton of games, and his ERA and WHIP were rarely elite enough to make up for pedestrian strikeout totals. However, the complete package that is Derek Lowe has usually been worthy of a roster spot as long as the rest of your rotation could provide the strikeouts, at least until the advanced aging started in Atlanta.

Not convinced that Lowe could still be worth a pickup at 38 years of age? I understand your concern, but I would like to present you with one more piece of evidence: Lowe’s pitch f/x heat maps. Below are images showing Lowe’s sinker and slider locations this year, and you can click on them if you wish to enlarge them for your viewing convenience.

As you can see, Lowe refuses to throw his fastball in the upper third of the strike zone, instead knowing how his bread is buttered and pounding the bottom of the zone. Also, as you can see, he is going to completely stay away from lefties, hopefully forcing them to reach out and pound a ball into the ground. If you look at his graphs from the past few seasons, they will look very similar to what Lowe is doing in 2011.

Lowe knows his strengths, and his uses them to his advantage, even if he’s getting older and losing some effectiveness. He should be able to stave off some aging just thanks to his pitch selection and control, and is certainly worth having around in NL-only leagues.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 18. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Trevor Cahill – Yes, his peripherals do not match his ERA, thanks mainly to his league-leading .213 BABIP. But he has a 2.19 ERA in eight games at McAfee Coliseum this week and Cahill has two home starts this period, including one against the Royals. Continue to ride Cahill this week.

Livan Hernandez – No one figured Hernandez would be able to keep it up this late in the season. But thanks to his lowest BABIP (.282) in six years and his lowest HR/FB rate (5.4%) since we have the data in 2002, Hernandez has given the Nationals a chance to win each time he pitches. But the veteran has done much better at home this season, where he has an ERA a full run lower than his road mark. With Hernandez and the Nationals having two West Coast road games this week, bench Hernandez for this period.

Derek Lowe – In his last six starts, Lowe is 1-4 with a 5.03 ERA. Even more surprising is that Lowe is having trouble with the gopher ball, having allowed 6 HR in 34 IP in this stretch. While Lowe does have two home starts this week, his ERA at Turner Field is 4.15 for the season. Move him to the bench until he works his way out of his current funk.

Brett Myers – A pitcher with a lifetime 3.89 xFIP, Myers has a 3.78 mark in the category in 2010. However, his ERA is 68 points beneath that mark, which helped earn Myers a contract extension from the Astros. The veteran has really enjoyed pitching in Minute Maid Park this year, where he is 6-0 with a 2.29 ERA. With two road starts this week, give Myers a spot on the bench.

Jason Vargas – Poor run support has hurt Vargas all year long, but especially in his last nine starts. Only once in that span did the Mariners provide him with more than three runs. But the lefty has given Seattle a chance to win on a regular basis this year. And at Safeco Field he is 5-2 with a 2.23 ERA. Vargas has two home starts, so make sure to activate him this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 18 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Halladay, J. Santana, T. Hudson, Gallardo, Pavano, Latos, Lackey, Lewis, Burnett, Beckett, Lilly, J. Sanchez, Buehrle, Kuroda, Richard, Morrow, Wood, Carmona, Saunders, Wells, Westbrook, Duensing, Porcello, Hellickson, Guthrie, Olsen, Cook, Maholm, Lopez, Bannister, Ohlendorf, Bell, West.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 16 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. 2.13 ERA, 9 Ks, 0.868 WHIP (2 starts)
Hunter – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.03 ERA, 4 Ks, 0.675 WHIP (2)
Jurrjens – Advised to start. W, 3.21 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.143 WHIP (2)
Pineiro – Advised to sit. 9.00 ERA, 5 Ks, 2.167 WHIP (1)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. 2 W, 3.46 ERA, 9 Ks, 0.923 WHIP (2)

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

John Ely – After three rough outings in the middle of June, the concern was that the league figured out Ely. But he has rebounded with two strong starts of 7 IP, 1 ER each with 11 Ks in 14 IP. Overall he has a 3.62 ERA with a FIP and xFIP that support those numbers. Make sure he is active for his home starts against the Marlins and Cubs this week.

Gavin Floyd – All year long Floyd’s peripherals have been better than his results. And in his last five games, Floyd has pitched very well, although he does not have the Wins to prove it. He is 1-1 in that stretch but with a 1.26 ERA with 7 BB and 33 Ks in 35.2 IP. Floyd has favorable matchups this week with two home starts, one against the struggling Scott Kazmir and the other against Anthony Lerew and the Royals. He needs to be in the lineup.

Derek Lowe – Seven times this season, Lowe has received six or more runs from the Braves offense, which explains how a pitcher with a 4.53 ERA has 9 W at the beginning of June. While Lowe has pitched much better since mid-May, he still has a 5.09 road ERA and this week has starts in Philadelphia and in New York. Put him on the bench this week if you have other options.

Wandy Rodriguez – 2010 got off to a rough start for Rodriguez and then a five game stretch starting in late May it turned even worse. In that span, he went 1-4 with a 10.03 ERA and a 2.100 WHIP. But Rodriguez has seemingly turned it around by allowing just 1 ER in his last 13 IP and has picked up Wins in his past two starts. Even while struggling, Rodriguez’ ERA at home is 1.17 runs lower, thanks to keeping the ball in the park. With home starts this week against the Pirates and Jeff Suppan and the Cardinals, look for Rodriguez to continue his strong pitching of late.

C.J. Wilson – He has pitched well both at home and on the road this year but Wilson has notched five of his six wins in Texas and he has a 6.98 K/9 in his home park. This week he is home against last-place Cleveland and last-place Baltimore, so Wilson needs to be in the starting lineup.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Halladay, Weaver, F.Hernandez, Hamels, Peavy, Niemann, Pelfrey, Vazquez, Garza, Silva, J. Sanchez, Richard, Kazmir, Sheets, Matsuzaka, Slowey, Wolf, Kennedy, Bumgarmer, Harang, Francis, Masterson, Gorzelanny, Galarraga, Padilla, Volstad, Millwood, Arrieta, Bush, Robertson, Bannister, Lincoln, Volquez, Suppan, Laffey, Litsch, Rowland-Smith, Beltre, Enright, Martin.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 12 pitchers and how they fared.

Davis – Advised to sit. 3.09 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.371 WHIP (2 starts)
G. Gonzalez – Advised to start. 2 W, 0.69 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.000 WHIP (2)
Moyer – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.80 ERA, 12 Ks, 0.600 WHIP (2)
Niese – Advised to start. W, 5.06 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.594 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to start. W, 2.25 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.083 WHIP (2)

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Carlos Lee – In his first 44 games, Lee was absolutelIn his first 44 games, Lee was absolutely dreadful. He was hitting for neither AVG (.192) nor power (5 HR in 167 ABs). But in the last two weeks, Lee has broke out of his slump in a big way and is batting .340 with 12 RBIs in 13 games. ZiPS (R) sees a .280 AVG with 15 HR and 62 RBIs the rest of the way and that might be selling him short. There is still a lot of room for growth with his BABIP (.227) and even with the awful start, when he did not hit a HR in April, his HR/FB rate is at 9.2 percent.

Ted Lilly – He got off to a late start to the season and then got knocked around in both his second and third outings of the year. But in his last six starts, Lilly has been as good as ever, even though his 0-3 mark in that frame does not show it. Lilly has recorded a Quality Start in each of those past six outings and has a 2.49 ERA over 43.1 IP. With a 4.62 xFIP, Lilly’s current owner may be in a mood to sell. Most of that number comes about because of a decrease in Ks and an increase in BB. But Lilly has picked up the pace with his strikeouts and in his last outing he did not walk a batter in 8 IP.

Clayton Richard – It is easy to see a Padres pitcher with a low ERA and an xFIP one and a quarter runs higher and make the conclusion that he is succeeding thanks to Petco Park. But Richard has pitched just as well on the road so far this season and his ERA was consistent in both April (3.00) and May (3.00). Richard has shaved nearly a full walk off his BB/9 from a year ago while his K/9 has remained steady. Some will point to his 81.0 LOB% as the main reason for his success. But Richard gets grounders, has a low LD% (16.7) and his O-Swing% is up to 28.5 percent. And he helps himself by having one of the toughest pickoff moves in the game.

SELL

Adam Dunn – One of the three true outcome kings, Dunn is walking less and hitting fewer HR this year. But the most surprising thing is his .280 AVG, which would easily be a career high. Of course, that comes with a .362 BABIP, which eclipses last year’s personal-best .324 mark. The additional base hits have Dunn just as valuable as ever with a .396 wOBA. But his fantasy value will fall when the AVG drops and unlike past years, Dunn will not prop it up with 40-HR power.

Derek Lowe – Great run support, especially early in the year, has helped Lowe to 8 W so far this season. But the rest of his fantasy numbers are underwhelming. His ERA is 5.04, his WHIP of 1.45 is just barely better than last year’s disappointing number and his K/9 of 5.28 is below-average. Lowe did real off wins in three straight outings before getting roughed up in his last start. His FIP and xFIP are three quarters of a run better than his ERA. See if that or his win total or his reputation can get someone to bite on him and take him off your hands. The slider which was such an effective pitch for Lowe while he was with the Dodgers is now a below-average offering.

Jon Rauch – After getting quality fantasy numbers from Rauch for two months, the time has come to try and sell high on Rauch and his 15 Saves. The 6-11 Rauch has done an admirable job filling in for Joe Nathan. But his WHIP is nothing special, he no longer is a big strikeout pitcher and his ERA is being propped up by a 5.9 HR/FB rate. Rauch has yet to give up a HR in 13 road innings and has allowed just 2 HR at home despite a 63.6 FB% in Target Field.

HUNCH

Troy Glaus – In the seven seasons prior to 2010, Glaus played in 115 games or fewer four times, including last year when he appeared in just 14 games and had only 29 ABs. But when healthy, Glaus has delivered consistent numbers, as good or better than the .377 OBP and .480 SLG he holds currently. Playing time is the big concern with Glaus, but he has already exceeded the amount of action he saw in two of his four injured seasons. I like Glaus’ chances to stay healthy and appear in 140 or more games this season and top his ZiPS (U) line of .271-22-92-64-1.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Four.

Mark Buehrle – He has allowed six runs in back-to-back outings and his K/9 rate has dipped to 3.86, the worst mark of his career. His walk rate is the highest it has been since his rookie season. Buehrle has been unlucky with his strand rate, but that has been cancelled out by a low HR rate. And to make matters worse, the White Sox offense is 12th in the league in runs, averaging just 3.69 per game. Sit Buehrle this week for his road starts in Texas and New York.

Wade Davis – After struggling in his first outing against the Yankees, Davis has put up back-to-back strong outings. Still, his peripherals are all over the map, with a terrible walk rate (5.82), a low BABIP (.205) and an elevated HR rate (18.2). Davis is lucky to have a 2.65 ERA. But I think the walks will come down and the other rates will stabilize, making Davis a good option to put in the lineup this week, especially with two home starts.

Zach Duke – The Pirates scored a combined 17 runs in Duke’s first two starts, helping him get out to a 2-0 record. But Duke is doing worse than his usual poor marks in strikeouts, while both his BB and HR allowed are up. It all makes for a 4.88 xFIP and a 5.91 FIP. With two road games this week, put Duke on your bench this week if at all possible.

Derek Lowe – The troubles that began in the second half of 2009 have carried over into this year for Lowe. He has managed 3 W despite a 5.24 ERA thanks to three outing where the offense put up 7 or more runs for him. But outside of wins, Lowe has been a very poor fantasy pitcher this year. On top of that he has to pitch this week in St. Louis, where he is 1-6 lifetime, including 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in the latest version of Busch Stadium. Get him out of your starting lineup this week.

Randy Wolf – A trip to Pittsburgh proved to be the perfect tonic for Wolf, who posted his first strong start of the season in his last outing. Still, after four games, his overall numbers are pretty much where you would expect them to be. He faces two below-average teams in runs scored this week in the Pirates and Padres. While I generally do not like pitchers immediately facing a team they just dominated, this week feels like an exception. Make sure Wolf is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Four are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, F. Hernandez, Weaver, J. Johnson, Beckett, Carpenter, Haren, Gallardo, Greinke, Liriano, Sanchez, Hudson, Hughes, Jackson, Kuroda, Sheets, Marcum, Wilson, Millwood, Harang, Silva, Latos, Eveland, Padilla, Bonderman, Norris, Lohse, Garland, Huff, Lannan, Gorzelanny, Perez, Hammel, Harrison, Snell, Davies, McCutchen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Two pitchers and how they fared.

Maine – Recommended to sit. 8 Ks, 13.28 ERA, 2.50 WHIP (2 starts).
Pavano – Recommended to start. W, 6 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 1.71 WHIP (2)
E. Santana – Recommended to sit. W, 13 Ks, 3.68 ERA, 1.16 WHIP (2)
C. Young – Recommended to start. DNP
Zito – Recommended to start. W, 4 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP (2)

Which of these two pitchers is going to go for more in your auction this year? Here are their 2009 stats and their 2010 ages:

Player A: 15 W, 2.87 ERA, 238 Ks, 1.026 WHIP, RHP, age 33
Player B: 2 W, 3.61 ERA, 30 Ks, 1.465 ERA, RHP, age 34

Now, that comparison is not really fair, as Player B was obviously hurt at some point while Player A had arguably the best season of his career last year. So, let’s use some career numbers instead.

Player A: 4.19 ERA, 8.14 K/9, 1.24 WHIP
Player B: 3.64 ERA, 6.13 K/9, 1.26 WHIP

That closes the gap considerably and you could reasonably opt for Player B, preferring his likely ERA to Player B’s definite K advantage. A lot would depend on the health of Player B and the respective teams of the two pitchers. Let’s throw another piece of information into the mix, the Bill James 2010 projections for both players.

Player A: 15 W, 3.60 ERA, 204 Ks, 1.20 WHIP
Player B: 10 W, 3.64 ERA, 89 Ks, 1.29 WHIP

That projection sees the ERA and WHIP as tossups, but a huge advantage in W and Ks for Player A, in part due to a 68-IP advantage for Player A. The Mock Draft crowd has already spoken, giving an ADP of 57 to Player A , with a high draft position of 41 and a low draft position of 71 in the last 199 drafts. Meanwhile, Player B had an ADP of 192, with a high draft position of 144 and a low draft position of 230.

As you might have guessed, Player A is Javier Vazquez while Player B is Tim Hudson. The Braves essentially had this choice and opted to go with Hudson. They have the best information on his health and they determined he was worth a 3 Year/$28 million contract, which includes a $1 million buyout of a fourth year, also at $9 million. Meanwhile, Vazquez at $11.5 million on the final year of his contract was dealt away in what was at least partially a salary dump.

The Braves would have preferred to have traded Derek Lowe, who is older, less effective and costs more money than Vazquez. But no one was willing to step up and take Lowe off their hands, at least they did not offer a haul greater than that offered for Vazquez, a haul criticized on most Atlanta message boards.

The Braves are generally regarded as a well-run team. They knew that signing Hudson gave them six SP and that they would have to shed the salary of one of them prior to the season. They decided that three/four years of Hudson at $9 million per year was better than one year of Vazquez at $11.5 million plus additional salary the following two seasons or two compensation picks. And they did this knowing that this is the final year for manager Bobby Cox and knowing that the window for another championship for Chipper Jones is closing, too.

From the Braves position, we cannot evaluate this trade until we see what they do with the money freed up in the differences between the salaries of Vazquez and Melky Cabrera, roughly $9 million. Do they trade for Dan Uggla and make him their first baseman? Do they sign Mark DeRosa and make him a starting outfielder? Those are just two of countless options now available.

But what we do know is that we need to reevaluate the 2010 rankings of both Hudson and Vazquez. If the Braves think Hudson is healthy enough to lock up for three or four years, than he is a decent bet to provide better results than his ADP as the 49th SP off the board would indicate. And with Vazquez in the AL, pitching half his games in 2009’s best HR park in baseball, we probably need to adjust him downward from being the 10th SP selected, his current ADP.

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 34 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Zack Greinke – His xFIP was 101 points higher than his ERA, making Greinke a sell high guy. This was a big win for FIP.

Joel Pineiro – After allowing just three home runs in 17 first half games, Pineiro served up eight home runs in 15 games after the break. This was a big win for xFIP.

Tim Lincecum – It was a very good second half of the season for Lincecum, just not as good as the first half. He did have a slightly higher HR/FB rate in the second half, and xFIP did a better job predicting his post-break ERA. Still, those fantasy owners who kept him based on his FIP did not end up disappointed.

Dallas Braden – Made just four starts after the break due to a foot infection. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

Paul Maholm – His second half ERA was lower than his first half one, despite more HR allowed. Still, this was a pitcher that FIP would have identified as a potential buy candidate at the break, so a win for xFIP.

Tim Wakefield – Made just four starts in the second half due to leg and back injuries. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to the lack of playing time.

Clayton Kershaw – He had a 5.0 HR/FB rate at the break and was even better in the second half, as he finished the year with a 4.1 mark. His ERA finished two full runs below what xFIP predicted. This was a big win for FIP.

Derek Lowe – Opponents posted an .888 OPS versus Lowe in the second half of the season, including 10 HR in 331 ABs. This was a big win for xFIP.

Cliff Lee – Everyone thinks the move to the NL turned things around for Lee but he was 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in his first three games with Cleveland after the break. His HR/FB rate has been below 11 percent the past five seasons. This was a big win for FIP.

Carlos Zambrano – This was the closest one, as Zambrano’s second half ERA of 4.14 was just barely closer to his first-half FIP than his xFIP. Zambrano pitched worse in the second half than in the first, but it had nothing to do with his HR rate, which declined slightly from the 5.8 he posted in the first half. This was a slight win for FIP.

Jair Jurrjens – Both FIP and xFIP predicted Jurrjens’ ERA to rise in the second half and instead he pitched even better after the break. If you went strictly by FIP at the break, you would have listened to offers for Jurrjens. If you went by xFIP you were in the sell/cut area. This was a win for FIP.

Jeff Niemann – As with Jurrjens, both of our metrics predicted an ERA rise from Niemann in the second half. FIP had him as a sell while xFIP had him as a sell or cut guy. This was a slight win for FIP.

Nick Blackburn – Yet another pitcher that both metrics forecasted a rise in ERA. Except this time, the actual rise was more drastic than even the more pessimistic xFIP predicted. Since you might have kept him if you used FIP, this was a big win for xFIP.

Edwin Jackson – Pretty much the same thing as with Blackburn above, except you were even more likely to keep Jackson if you used FIP. This was a big win for xFIP.

Mike Pelfrey – The spread with our two metrics was not nearly as great with Pelfrey as it was for Blackburn and Jackson, but the end results were the same. This was a big win for xFIP.

Jon Garland – FIP projected Garland to be virtually the same in the second half as he was in the first half while xFIP had him being noticeably worse. The trade to Los Angeles invigorated Garland, or perhaps it was simply leaving a bad home park, as he finished the year with a 5.29 ERA at Chase Field and a 1.67 ERA at Dodger Stadium. This was a win for FIP, but probably not a pitcher anyone was targeting at the break.

Felix Hernandez – Again, both metrics predicted an ERA rise in the second half, although xFIP was more pessimistic, making him a sell high guy with a difference of 94 points. Hernandez pitched even better after the break, making this a big win for FIP.

Justin Verlander – Both metrics predicted an ERA drop in the second half for Verlander, with FIP being the most optimistic. Verlander pitched well, but saw his ERA go up, making this a win for xFIP.

Brian Bannister – A 3.66 ERA in the first half made Bannister look like a useful pitcher. Both metrics saw an ERA increase, but xFIP was the most pessimistic. This was a big win for xFIP.

C.C. Sabathia – Our two metrics were split on how Sabathia would fare in the second half. With a predicted decrease from his first half ERA, this was a big win for FIP.

Brad Penny – Our two metrics were split again. But Penny’s ERA went up in the second half. This was a win for xFIP, but not many people who used FIP were angling to acquire Penny.

Vicente Padilla – His HR/FB rate went up significantly in the second half, yet Padilla produced a lower ERA after the break, thanks to a move to the NL. Neither metric identified Padilla as a pitcher to target, although FIP came very close to hitting his actual mark.

Jarrod Washburn – Both metrics identified Washburn as a sell candidate as his ERA was 92 points lower than his FIP and 150 points lower than his xFIP. Officially a win for xFIP, although you likely would have made the same decision regardless of which metric you used.

Jered Weaver – A win for xFIP, which had him as a sell, while FIP had him as a listen. There are also extra points for xFIP for exactly predicting his second half ERA.

Joe Blanton – The metrics were split on how Blanton would fare in the second half. This was a big win for xFIP, which forecasted him to be a useful pitcher and he ended up better than that.

Bronson Arroyo – Technically a win for xFIP but not many fantasy players were running out to acquire Arroyo based on his 4.99 first half xFIP.

Jamie Moyer – Repeat the comment from Arroyo, except sub in 5.06 xFIP.

Trevor Cahill – Same as the above two, except with a 5.18 FIP.

Chris Volstad – Our two metrics were split on Volstad. FIP saw him continuing to be a sell/cut guy while xFIP saw him being a useful pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA. This was a win for FIP.

Rick Porcello – Both systems predicted a rise in ERA but FIP elevated him to cut status. This was a win for xFIP.

Braden Looper – The two metrics were split on Looper, with xFIP predicting a drop in ERA. Looper actually pitched worse in the second half but neither system would have advocated acquiring him at the break.

Josh Geer – Made just three starts after the break due to lousy pitching. Not one that either system would have suggested to add.

Rich Harden – While most of the players with above average HR/FB rates have been of little or no value in regards to fantasy, Harden is the exception. Both systems saw him improving on his first half ERA but xFIP was much more bullish. And Harden exceeded those expectations. This was a big win for xFIP.

Randy Johnson – Appeared in just four games after the break due to a rotator cuff strain. Officially a win for FIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

*****

If you made your fantasy decisions this year based on xFIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Pineiro, Lowe, Blackburn, Jackson, Pelfrey, Bannister, Blanton, Harden and to a lesser extent Maholm, Verlander, Weaver and Porcello.

If you made your fantasy decisions based this year based on FIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Greinke, Kershaw, Lee, Hernandez, Sabathia and to a lesser extent Jurrjens and Volstad.

From a pure bulk standpoint, you were better off in 2009 using xFIP at the break. But those who relied on FIP were more likely to make the right call on four of the five pitchers with the lowest ERA in the second half among the 34 pitchers in our sample.

We really cannot make any inferences for the future based on this one small sample. What we can say is that judging strictly from results in 2009 it would be a mistake to ignore FIP completely and absolutely while making fantasy decisions at the All-Star break. This year if you used xFIP you would have made the wrong decisions on some of the best pitchers in the game.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Lance Berkman and trade Adrian Gonzalez last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Adam LaRoche – In 2008 he had a .764 OPS in the first half of the year and a .975 OPS after the break. In 2007 the numbers were .763 and .854. In his MLB career, LaRoche has a .787 OPS pre-AS break and a .907 OPS after the break. He has had a very solid first half of the season and if he maintains his career averages after the break, LaRoche could challenge for his best season yet, when he batted .285-32-90.

Luke Hochevar – His strikeout rate is poor (3.57) and his BABIP sits at .231 for the season. But Hochevar has hurled a Quality Start in four of his last five outings, pitching into the seventh inning in all four of those games, including one route-going performance. Hochevar has decent control and does not allow many fly balls. And he should improve upon his 60 percent strand rate going forward.

Willie Harris – Since taking over the CF job 10 days ago, Harris has 3 HR and 3 SB to go along with a .308 AVG. Harris has never been a star, but he did hit 13 HR a season ago. If you need a stopgap option in the OF, he is a waiver wire pickup to consider, with the ability to help in multiple categories. Also, he has played 10 games this year at 2B, which may make him eligible there in some formats.

Chad Gaudin – Back as a SP after spending most of last season in relief, Gaudin is piling up the strikeouts and maintaining a serviceable WHIP (1.39) despite a dismal 4.58 BB/9 mark. His FIP is over a full run beneath his ERA while his strand rate has room for improvement from its current 65.2 percent mark. Early in the month, Gaudin was forced into bullpen duty in an 18-inning game. He got rocked in his next start but has followed up with three Quality Starts. In that span, Gaudin has a 28/5 SO/BB ratio in 21 innings.

Garrett Atkins – Through his first 53 games, Atkins had a .189 AVG and was in the discussion for the worst player in fantasy baseball. Since then, he’s hit .519 in his last 10 games, although none of his other fantasy numbers have been noteworthy. But one category production is better than none and Atkins has a .240 BABIP despite a career .314 mark in the category. RoS ZiPS shows him with a .288-12-52-44-1 line the remainder of the season.

Trade

Ichiro Suzuki – There may be no more polarizing figure in fantasy baseball than Ichiro. Proponents point to his ultra-high AVG and SB and strong R numbers. So far, the proponents have been right. Ichiro’s .372 AVG has him as the 14th-best fantasy player, according to CBS Sports. He has a .391 BABIP. Ichiro had a .390 mark in 2007 and hit .401 in the category in 2004. Still, his career mark is .358 so some regression should not be a surprise. Also, Ichiro already has as many HR as he hit in the past two seasons and his HR/FB rate is double what it was a season ago.

Derek Lowe – His last three outings have really dragged down his overall numbers. Some may consider Lowe a buy-low option as a solid #2/3 fantasy pitcher simply going through a rough patch. But he is also a 36-year old with declining K/9 and BB/9 numbers. Lowe is getting fewer swings outside the zone and the famed sinkerballer has a career-worst GB%. The numbers could be even worse if Lowe did not have a career-best 4.4 percent HR/FB rate, roughly one-third of his career mark in the category. His velocity is down and Pitch Type Values shows his slider, which was such an effective pitch for Lowe last year, has been a below-average pitch this season.

Mark Reynolds – Fantasy players mostly avoided Reynolds on Draft Day this season, making him a late-round pick or waiver-wire fare. The conventional wisdom was that his power was not worth the low average. Whoops. Reynolds has raised his AVG 29 points, shown even more power than a season ago and added SB to his game. But it is time to sell high. Reynolds is unlikely to maintain his 28-SB or 45-HR pace. He has already surpassed his professional career high in steals and the 28 percent HR/FB rate is 10 points above last year’s mark.

Joel Pineiro – He has gained a lot of publicity lately for being the latest Tony LaRussa/Dave Duncan reclamation project. But Pineiro features a career-low 3.81 K/9 ratio and he is unlikely to maintain a 0.27 HR/9 rate.

Scott Rolen – His .332 AVG has been almost as big of a surprise as Rolen playing in 66 games so far, even with his bad back. He has a 17-game hitting streak with 10 multi-hit games. But he is a one-category performer, with just 5 HR and 29 RBI to go along with his gaudy AVG. And not surprisingly, Rolen has a .360 BABIP, which would be his personal best and is 46 points above his career mark.