Archive for Derek Jeter

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts.

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

Obviously, the biggest winner of 2009 was Troy Tulowitzki, who used a .344/.421/.622 second half to rise to the top third of the rankings. With only a 64% success rate on steals, and a speed score (6.6) that was far and away the best of his career, however, owners should probably not expect another 30/20 season next year and he may be overvalued despite his good power.

Sitting just below him is perhaps the biggest dropper of the year at the position, Jimmy Rollins. A career-low in BABIP (.253) suggests the batting average should bounce back. On the other hand, a six-year low in speed score (6.8) could be the harbinger of a decline in the 31-year-old. He still was successful on almost 80% of his stolen base attempts and still hits enough fly balls to muscle those home runs out. Rollins should be the value in that second tier next year.

The third tier is an interesting mix of the rejuvenated old (Derek Jeter) and the surprising young (Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett). Jeter has done this all before, but fantasy owners know that he’s not dependable when it comes to the counting stats you need in fantasy. At that point in the draft, it may be worth waiting a round or two and taking a shot that one of the young guys repeats his season. Personal opinion significantly determines how you organize this tier.

The next tier contains two men that disappointed this year, but given the fact that Alexei Ramirez is 29, it’s probably the slightly younger (26) Stephen Drew that should be picked ahead of him. Given Drew’s incredible oscillating OPS, next year may yet be a good year for him. Elvis Andrus is the upside play in the tier but he’ll cost the most, too.

The last tier is only for those determined not to reach for positional scarcity. It is not recommended for those in standard mixed leagues, even if Yunel Escobar shows some signs of developing mediocre power (fly balls increasing to 30% and HR/FB increasing to 10% in 2009).

Heading into the 2009 season, no fantasy position was as screwed up as shortstop. The first three spots were written in stone but if you looked at 10 different rankings, it is possible you might not have found even two lists which had one player the same in their rankings from four through 20.

And if we thought it was a mess heading into the year, it has been even more unpredictable two-thirds of the way through the 2009 season. I am going to use the preseason rankings of my friend Troy Patterson from Roto Savants to illustrate this point. Patterson does excellent work and readers may recognize his name from comments he has left on articles here previously. I am going to compare his rankings versus the current numbers for SS from the RotoTimes Player Rater (RTPR).

1. Hanley Ramirez (RTPR #1) – Ramirez probably went in the top three of your draft, if not first overall. He checks in today with a dollar value of $33.19 and in raw dollars is the third-best fantasy hitter.

2. Jose Reyes (RTPR #25) – Reyes had been one of the most consistent fantasy players the past four seasons but has had this year ruined by his leg injuries.

3. Jimmy Rollins (RTPR #14) – Rollins deserved to be the third shortstop off the board this year but a first-round pick was too high. Rollins delivered first-round value in his MVP season of 2007 but that season he set career bests in four fantasy categories and also had 41 SB.

4. Jhonny Peralta (RTPR #19) – Peralta hit 20+ HR in three of the past four seasons but this year is on pace to hit just 14. Also, he projects to finish with just 66 R, after scoring 104 last season and finishing with 80 or more the previous three seasons.

5. J.J. Hardy (RTPR #31) – Hardy was coming off back-to-back strong fantasy seasons in which he contributed in four categories. For healthy players, he belongs in the conversation for biggest fantasy busts of the year with his -$5.08 dollar value so far.

6. Stephen Drew (RTPR #20) – Owners enthralled by his strong second half in 2008 have been really disappointed by Drew’s 2009 season. After putting up a .927 OPS after the All-Star break last year, only a strong season at home this year has kept 2009 from being a disaster. Drew has a .225 AVG away from Chase Field and a .667 OPS in road games.

7. Troy Tulowitzki (RTPR #6) – Injuries ruined Tulowitzki’s 2008 season and fantasy owners were cautious with him heading into this year. Tulowitzki got off to a slow start but since June 7th he has a .320-15-36-40-10 line in his last 50 games.

8. Derek Jeter (RTPR #2) – Jeter’s days as a fantasy star seemed to be over but he has surprised everyone by once again being a five-category fantasy player. After posting 11 HR and 11 SB in 150 games last year, Jeter has 11 HR and 19 SB in 99 games this season.

9. Michael Young (RTPR #3) – Another player whose best fantasy days seemed to be behind him, Young has thrived with a move to 3B, although he retains his SS eligibility for this season. Young is on pace for his best year since 2005, when he finished 11th in the MVP race.

10. Rafael Furcal (RTPR #23) – A trendy pick to be the fourth SS off the board, Furcal has been healthy this season but not nearly as productive as he was last year before going down with a back injury. Furcal has been hot lately and will likely move up among SS before the year is out.

Six of the top 10 players on this list have current positional ratings of 14 or lower. Compare that to Patterson’s first base list, in which eight of the players in his preseason top 10 currently rank in the top 11 spots at the position.

So, which players not listed above currently rank in the top 10 SS? They are as follows:

4. Jason Bartlett (Patterson preseason #23) – In his third season as a full-time player, Barlett is far surpassing numbers he put up previously. He already has established career-bests in HR and RBI and is only 3 SB off his personal best.

5. Miguel Tejada (Patterson #12) – A .339 BABIP is certainly helping to rejuvenate Tejada. But he also benefits from a strong performance in RBIs. Updated ZiPS forecasts him to finish with 92 RBIs, which would be his best mark since 2006 and 29 more than he produced last season.

7. Marco Scutaro (Patterson not in top 25) – In his age 33 season, Scutaro will establish career highs in all five fantasy categories. Yes, some of that is due simply to playing time, but Scutaro did post 592 PA last season.

8. Ryan Theriot (Patterson #15) – Most people were not as bullish on Theriot as Patterson was. He had a .340 BABIP last year (with no power) and the Dutton and Bendix xBABIP model had him for a .291 mark in the category. No one was expecting Theriot to post a .336 BABIP this season.

9. Yunel Escobar (Patterson #18) – It seems like just yesterday that pundits were referring to Escobar as a “Yutility infielder” and now he is a solid starter in a 12-team mixed league.

10. Asdrubal Cabrera (Patterson not in top 25) – Cabrera was draft worthy coming into the season due to his eligibility at both 2B and SS. A .359 BABIP has made him a starter in most leagues, although he has also contributed more SB than anyone expected.

Ladies and gentleman: ready your pitchforks. Light your torches. Today, I am going to commit baseball sacrilege. I come not to bury the Yankee Captain, but I must point out that in many respects, Derek Jeter’s 2008 campaign was the worst of his career.

This past season, Jeter posted just a 0.26 WPA/LI, the lowest full-season mark of his distinguished career and a middling 8th among 17 qualified shortstops. Jeter’s .408 slugging percentage, .107 Isolated Power (ISO) and .343 wOBA were also career lows.

Since an outstanding 2006 season (.343/.417/.483), Jeter’s production has taken a sizeable hit in each of the past two years. Using the same formula to convert wOBA into runs above average that we employed while examining Miguel Cabrera, it becomes apparent that the 1992 first-rounder has been hemorrhaging offensive value:

2006

Jeter’s wOBA: .399
AL LG wOBA: .339

37.3 Runs Above Average

2007

Jeter’s wOBA: .369
AL LG wOBA: .338

19.25 Runs Above Average

2008

Jeter’s wOBA: .343
AL LG wOBA: .335

4.65 Runs Above Average

Granted, 2006 was one of Jeter’s better seasons with the bat, but he has lost over three wins of offensive value since that point.

While Jeter has shown pretty solid pop for a shortstop in his career (.458 SLG, .142 ISO), he has often put the ball on the grass. His groundball percentage has hovered between 56.1% and 60% over the past four seasons, and sits at 55.6% for his career. With pretty solid speed and a line-drive bat (career 20.8 LD%), Jeter has consistently posted high Batting Average On Balls in Play (BABIP) marks (.361 career). However, it seems as though those skills might be in the process of eroding. Jeter’s 17.9 LD% in 2008 was the lowest mark that Fan Graphs has going back to 2002, and his .336 BABIP was the second-lowest of his career.

While it’s possible that his BABIP drop was just a blip, it seems pretty unlikely. Our own Peter Bendix recently co-authored a study on Expected BABIP at The Hardball Times, which introduced a more comprehensive and accurate way of measuring XBABIP for hitters. Among the facets of a player’s game that bode well for XBABIP are batting eye, line drive percentage, speed score and pitches per plate appearance. His batting eye (0.61 BB/K) was essentially unchanged (0.59 career) and his 3.7 P/PA was normal, but Jeter has shown significant erosion in the other two categories As mentioned before, Jeter’s 2008 LD% was his lowest mark by a decent margin, and it appears as though the captain’s wheels are grinding to a halt.

Using Bill James’ Speed Score, we can get a better read on Jeter’s speed (or lack thereof) in recent seasons. Speed Score is found by calculating a player’s score in five categories: stolen base percentage, stolen base attempts, triples, runs scored per times on base and number of times grounded into a double play. By adding all five categories up and dividing by five, you get the player’s Speed Score. Speed Scores range from 0-10, with the average player posting a number in the range of five. If you want the full details on the formula used, take a look here.

Here are Jeter’s Speed Scores over the past three seasons…

2006

SB%: 8.09
SB Attempts: 5.77
Triples: 2.96
Runs: 7.62
GDP: 5.87

Total Speed Score: 6.06

2007

SB%: 4
SB Attempts: 4.61
Triples: 3.08
Runs: 7.03
GDP: 3.03

Total Speed Score: 4.49

2008

SB%: 4.17
SB Attempts: 4.03
Triples: 3
Runs: 6.62
GDP: 1.4

Total Speed Score: 3.84

Since 2006, Jeter has gone from possessing above-average speed to posting a Speed Score more commensurate with a first base/DH type. Another Bill James stat, Base Running Net Gain, also showcases Jeter’s slowing game. Base Running Net Gain compares a player to the league average in: advancing from first base to third base, second to home, first to home, ground into double play percentage, and stolen base percentage. A swift runner for most of his career (with a net base running gain of +76), Jeter is now below-average:

2006: +24 Net Bases
2007: +9 Net Bases
2008: -13 Net Bases

Not surprisingly, Jeter’s XBABIP under Peter’s system has fallen each year as well: .339 in ’06, .332 in ’07 and .310 this past season. With a three-year decline in LD% and rapidly deteriorating speed, Jeter’s BABIP drop looks like a significant trend, not just an anomaly. Posting a GB% near sixty was okay for the lithe, peak-career version of Derek Jeter, who possessed the athleticism to beat out fielders and reach base on infield hits. However, it’s a much less viable strategy for the current, decline-phase Jeter, who appears to be squarely in the clutches of father time.

I realize that criticizing Jeter is sort of the baseball equivalent of bashing Santa Claus, but there are undeniably a number of concerning trends here. A five year decline in ISO..a three year decline in LD%…a high GB% without the requisite speed to make those worm-burners count. I don’t really see a “flotation device”, a skill to fall back on. It sounds downright odd to say, but you might just want to avoid that Jeter guy on draft day.