Archive for David Ortiz

On 9/3, I posted Adjusting Fantasy Value with expected (x)BABIP and xHR. These were used to adjust batting average, OBP, SLG and OPS for your different leagues’ formats.

Based on xBABIP, Michael Brantley and Anthony Rendon jumped in value sandwiching in Mike Trout as the top 3 adjusted Fantasy Values for standard 5×5 formats (HR, SB, R, RBI and AVG).

Here, I’ll attempt to verify the BABIP potential for standard 5×5 leagues. I am therefore using column 2 (sum of the 5×5 descriptive/actual z-scores: HR, SB, R, RBI and AVG) and comparing it to column 3 (sum of the 5×5 expected z-scores: xHR, SB, R, RBI and xAVG). SB, R and RBI are not adjusted even though they should be so consider this a way to play down the overall effect.

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Earlier this week, Jeff Zimmerman presented Early 2015 Hitter Projections using Steamer and/or ZIPS averaged ROS projections. The main contingency at this time: all values are set to 600 plate appearances. If I had all the time in the world, I would go through the list and manually adjust the PA based on lineup position, career PA/G, etc, but I’m not that much of a Mensch.

The next day, Mike Podhorzer highlighted some of the surprises ranked in the top 30. Again the 600 PA contingency is clear as Rajai Davis, Jarrod Dyson and Corey Dickerson make the list although if Dickerson doesn’t get platooned, I (and Mike) think he’ll surpass expectations. His splits page tells us there is no good reason to platoon him.

In Mike’s intro, he also referenced that there is no adjustment for position in Jeff’s SGP rankings. That’s where this post comes in.

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A quick look at a post by Jack Moore at RotoHardball shows the benefit a change in lineup can make. In short, the difference between batting second and batting fifth can be as much as .33 plate appearances a game, or around 50 a season.

A quick look at the nearest newswire will show you that the Red Sox have managed to revamp their lineup in just a few short days. At issue is what the new lineup will look like, especially since the team is now so lefty-heavy. It may not mean the difference between a good and bad season, but 50 plate appearances is not something to sneeze at.

In the last week, Buster Olney famously submitted his new lineup and then Carson Cistulli updated it by using Baseball Musing’s lineup optimizer tool. These two lineups are pretty different, but there is one similarity worth discussing further from a fantasy angle.

Yes, both the stat-head lineup and the traditional lineup feature Jacoby Ellsbury in the nine-hole. Maybe one focused on his 6.7% career walk rate, and the other was looking at Ellsbury as the ‘second leadoff man,’ but the results were clear enough that they strongly suggest that’s where Ellsbury will end up. That’s not a good thing for those projecting a bounce-back for Ellsbury.

It’s not that he can’t have success at the bottom of the order. It’s just that we have to temper the plate appearances. In 2009, he racked up 693 plate appearances – and that would make the Bill James’ projection (674 plate appearances) seem reasonable. However, Ellsbury had 504 plate appearances in the leadoff spot that year, where the average player (per Tango’s The Book) has 4.83 plate appearances per game. In the nine hole, Ellsbury could expect to see 3.90 plate appearances per game. That’s almost a full plate appearance per game.

Let’s take that .93 PA per game away from his 2009 numbers then. That’s a full 150 plate appearances fewer, meaning Ellsbury might hope to approach 540 or 550 plate appearances should he play in the nine hole most days.

But we also know that this figure represents the best possible upside.

Judging from Chris Cwik’s column on Friday, Ellsbury, J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron and David Ortiz may be splitting some time in the outfield and at DH, provided the tam does not move one of the group in the next few weeks.

After considering this group, the best probable scenario has Cameron as more or less a fourth outfielder and Ortiz as a platoon DH. Ortiz did put up a .268 wOBA against lefties last year, his third straight year of below-average work against southpaws. That’s 200 PAs that could go to someone else next year. Drew has been injured off and on the last few years, and usually ends up around 550 PAs, which is about 100 PAs short of a full ride in right field and his position in the lineup.

Would Mike Cameron be okay with 300 PAs? That would allow Ellsbury to enjoy 550 plate appearances in center field. The team says that they rate Ellsbury’s defense as above-average, and Cameron’s defense fell off, but short-sample UZRs are not so useful. If the two of them instead split the 850 plate appearances – meaning everyone stays healthy and Cameron and Ellsbury are essentially sharing center and the leftover PAs in right and at DH – then you’re looking at 425 PAs for Ellsbury.

This is no science, but you’re looking at a range between 400 and 550 plate appearances for Ellsbury most likely, and a risk that he gets only 350 or so as the backup. That means the real best case scenario – 550 plate appearances – would have Ellsbury with 153 hits, 83 runs and 48 steals using Bill James projections. That could be helpful if his draft spot drops, but the risk – 350 plate appearances – is that he ends up with 97 hits, 53 runs and 30 stolen bases.

And those projections are all using Bill James’ numbers, oft thought to be the rosiest of the mainstream projections.

Edit: On Saturday, this came through the interwebs:

Red Sox manager Terry Francona expects to bat Carl Crawford second or third in 2011, with Jacoby Ellsbury leading off.
“I’ll sit down with Carl, I’ll sit down with Pedey,” Francona said. “Obviously, he’s going to hit somewhere in the top of the order, second or third. But we want to have some balance, as much as we can, with Adrian and Youk following and David (Ortiz) and J.D. (Drew). There’s some things to think about.” We doubt Pedroia will be dropped in the order, so we tentatively expect him to hit second and Pedroia to bat third.

There’s a lot of risk here. I’m not even sure that more information in Spring Training will remove that uncertainty. Draft Ellsbury at your own peril.

All 30 teams are in action this evening as interleague play wraps up. How about some links?

MVN’s MLBOutsider takes a closer look at the Nationals’ Jordan Zimmermann, who has a 1.99 ERA and 22/6 K/BB ratio over his past four starts. He obviously doesn’t carry much win potential, but he’s been missing a lot of bats (8.9 K/9) without a great dip in control (2.6 BB/9). Mixed leaguers starving for strikeouts might as well give him a try. He is owned in just 13 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Alex Geshwind of FantasyBullpen.com lists his “second half starting pitching targets,” calling Francisco Liriano the “ultimate risk reward” and Randy Johnson a “decent buy low candidate.” Geshwind also takes note of Jorge De La Rosa’s 9.8 K/9 and 3.46 BABIP.

RotoRob’s “Daily Dump” is the Orioles’ Luke Scott, who is stuck in a 3-for-22 rut and has a .699 OPS in the month of June. He’s shown a good display of power this season (14 home runs in 184 at-bats) and has at times murdered left-handed pitching, but he’s not helping mixed leaguers.

Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse advises us to stay away from the “Homer Train.” He, of course, is referring to the Reds’ Homer Bailey, who will be called on to start Saturday against the Indians. The 23-year-old is 4-0 with a 0.47 ERA and 38/7 K/BB ratio in his last five starts for Triple-A Louisville, but he’s had trouble parlaying any kind of success into the major leagues during the course of his career. There’s some hope that this time will be different, due in large part to a new split-finger fastball.

Brad Berreman of MVN’s MLBOutsider has a look at the Marlins’ bullpen situation. With Matt Lindstrom hitting the disabled list, the Fish have said they intend to use a closer-by-committee strategy. That doesn’t always last. Perhaps Leo Nunez or Dan Meyer will emerge as the club’s official ninth-inning hurler.

Rotoworld’s Mark St. Amant presents his “Risers” and “Fallers.” He even gives a little credit to David Ortiz, who is putting together a nice June after opening the season in a massive slump.

Have a link, question or comment? I’m all ears. Shoot me an e-mail or come join me on Twitter.

One of the hardest things to figure out in baseball is if a declining older player has anything left. Fantasy managers are left wondering what the doctors are saying, if there are physical or mental ailments to blame, or if the player is just done. Two aging DHs are currently facing their own struggles, and though ZiPS is pessimistic about both, their cases are not the same.

David Ortiz – Much has been written about Big Papi, and R.J. Anderson did a great writeup just a couple weeks ago. Let this be an update, as Ortiz has been the subject of much publicized conjecture in just the last week. Brian Costello wondered aloud, in the New York Post, if Ortiz was really 33 as his birth certificate said. A scout cited that he was David Arias when he was drafted, and that therefore the chances of his birth certificate being accurate were “zero.” The same scout said that we are seeing a 40-year-old man flailing away when we watch Ortiz. Hyperbole aside, there’s no way Ortiz is falsifying his age more than a year or two in the wrong direction. He’s not going to halve his OPS in one year, even if he’s really 35 instead of 33. And yes, even if he is a big man.

Anderson did wonder if something was physically wrong with Ortiz, and that is always the main concern with aging sluggers. So the Red Sox doctors recently did a full checkup and famously gave Ortiz some eye drops and he responded that his dry eyes were not keeping him from performing at his peak. Some bat speed issues might be at play in his reduced contact rate in the zone – just look at how many fastballs pitchers are choosing to send his way. He’s seeing 4% more fastballs, which seems to suggest that pitchers think he’s not getting around.

But June has been kind to Ortiz, and his .300/.333/.500 slash line is reason for some optimism. Maybe the mental and psychological barriers were the barriers that held the most weight, and a rebound is in order. Since Anderson checked in with Ortiz, he’s swung at fewer pitches outside the zone, and his O-Swing % is regressing to the mean. Perhaps his other numbers will also begin regressing to the mean.

Travis Hafner – The ‘other’ big struggling DH was brought up in the comments under Anderson’s take on Ortiz, and for good reason. His sore shoulder had him currently on the DL and his manager wasn’t sure when he’d be back in town. Despite his good start to the season (.268/.358/.563 has to be counted as good in the face of his .628 OPS showing last year), ZiPS is pessimistic about his slugging and has him down for .264/.379/.491 and 11 home runs over the rest of the year.

Can we be more optimistic? I think so. First, the bad signs are not so bad. Hafner is reaching right now, and his 25.3% O-Swing% is a career high. Why is this not so worrisome? Even when Pronk was struggling last year, he only swung at 18.1% of pitches outside the zone. Where Ortiz’s reaching was getting worse, Pronk is only now, suddenly reaching. Also, he’s making contact on his reaches – his O-Contact% and Z-Contact% are at career highs as well.

He’s seeing the ball well, it seems. His BABIP is actually low (.298 this year, .320 career), and he’s putting the ball in play. He’s hitting a career high in fly balls (48%), and his HR/FB rate is back up to his pre-2008 levels (20%). His line drive percentage is a little low (17.3%), but his career rate is not great (19.9%), so this doesn’t seem incredibly out of line.

Sometimes we over-rate what we hear about a player’s physical problems, which might be the case for both of these big DHs. Yeah, they may not play every day, and yes they may be in decline. But in Pronk’s case, since he’s come back off the DL, he’s put up a double and a home run in eight at-bats in consecutive days. That’s what Hafner is anyway, and in a league of any depth beyond mixed leagues with short benches, owners should be happy with him this year. It’s not like he cost much.

Stock Up

Andruw Jones, Rangers

Remember the state of Jones’ career one year ago? He was coming off an incredulously bad beginning with the Dodgers (.159/.282/.250 last April), on his way to an apocalyptic .234 wOBA and -17.9 Batting Runs in just 238 PA. It was a startlingly abrupt fall for a guy who had posted 3.6 Wins Above Replacement in a “down” 2007 season. Essentially given a settlement package by the Dodgers to leave LA and never, ever return, Jones has crushed the ball thus far with the Rangers. The corpulent out-maker of ’08 is nowhere to be found, as the 32 year-old has a .507 wOBA (.333/.500/.718) in 52 plate appearances. With Jones channeling his inner Barry Bonds, David Murphy getting in touch with his inner Juan Pierre (.260 wOBA) and Josh Hamilton hitting the DL (finding his inner Milton Bradley?), Andruw should definitely be on your radar.

Dexter Fowler, Rockies

A lanky 6-4 center fielder endowed with a full complement of tools, Fowler is off to an excellent start with Colorado. Aside from his five SB bonanza versus Padres righty Chris Young, Fowler has a .363 wOBA in 82 PA after jumping straight from Double-A. He’s working the count well (10 BB%, 19.7 Outside-Swing%), has shown some pop (.153 Isolated Power) and he’s 9-for-10 in the steals department (a welcome change for a guy whose raw speed had produced a pernicious 66.4% SB success rate over the past three minor league seasons). The 23 year-old switch-hitter has earned an everyday gig with the Rockies, and his broad skill-set makes him well worth acquiring.

Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox

When Youkilis slugged .569 and thumped 29 homers in 2008, most figured that his power numbers would regress more toward his career averages in 2009. After all, his career-high SLG% prior to that was .453, in 2007. So far, the 30 year-old has done his best to quash those thoughts: with 6 dingers and a .744 slugging percentage, Youkilis has produced a .528 wOBA that leads all major league hitters. After four straight seasons of decreasing walks and increasing Outside-Swing percentages (chronicled in more detail here), Youk is drawing free passes at a career-high 15.7% clip.

Adam Jones, Orioles

Jones was covered here a few weeks ago, but his significant progress with the lumber deserves further mention. Jones was among the most free swingers in the game during the 2008 season (his 36.2 Outside-Swing% was leaps and bounds above the 25.4% MLB average, and ranked 9th-highest among all hitters), but he’s curtailed that Francoeur-esque approach in 2009. His O-Swing% is down to a more reasonable 26.5%, and his walk rate his climbed to 8.8% from a paltry 4.6% in ’08. As a result, the 23 year-old has put himself in the hole with less frequency this season: his First-Pitch Strike% has fallen from 66% in 2008 to 59.1% in 2009 (57.6% MLB average). No, he won’t come anywhere close to hitting .355, but Jones’ more enlightened plate approach is a welcome sight.

Yovani Gallardo, Brewers

Gallardo has been every bit the ace he was billed as, with a slick 3.78 K/BB ratio and a 3.37 FIP. He’s benefitting from a .220 BABIP, but with 8.83 K’s per nine, 2.34 BB/9 and a greater number of grounders (47.7 GB%, compared to a 38.7% career average), Gallardo has the skills to remain among the very best in the NL.

Stock Down

David Ortiz, Red Sox

During the off-season, I wondered if the days of “Big Papi” were now a relic of the past, to be replaced by the much-less-catchy “Medium Papi” era. Right about now, Boston would love to have even a mildly productive Papi: the 33 year-old has a sordid .271 wOBA in 114 PA. Ortiz has been uncharacteristically impatient at the dish: his 28.2 Outside-Swing% is well above last year’s 20.6% mark and his 18.3% career average. He’s also making more contact on those outside pitches (59.4 Outside-Contact%, 53.4% in 2008), likely meaning he’s been making more weak contact on “pitcher’s pitches” off the plate. Combine the hacking with an ISO that looks like a misprint (.094) and a tendency to get jammed (his Infield/FB% is 18.6%, compared to an 8.3% career average), and you have a fellow who has produced -6.8 batting runs on the season.

Daniel Cabrera, Nationals

The Nats brought in Cabrera from the O’s this past offseason, hoping to find even remnants of the 6-7, hard-throwing groundball pitcher who looked highly promising during the middle part of the aughts. Unfortunately, Cabrera’s skills have eroded even further this season. His K rate (just 4.75 in ’08, after sitting in the 7-9 range earlier in his career) has dropped to a microscopic 3.33 per nine innings, and he’s issuing an absurd number of free passes (6.29 BB/9). Cabrera sat at 96.2 MPH with his heater in 2005, yet he’s barely cracking 90 this season (90.5 MPH, down over 2 MPH from last season).

Perhaps in recognition of his diminished fastball, Cabrera is mixing in more breaking pitches: his league-high fastball usage in 2008 (82.5%) has been ratcheted down to 67.9%, with more sliders and changeups instead. Unfortunately, he has next to no control of those secondary offerings, either: just 41.8% of his pitches have crossed home plate (48.9% MLB average). The result of all this ugliness is a 5.72 FIP. Cabrera won’t turn 28 until the end of the month, yet it seems as though he’s completely lost the ability to pitch at the major league level within a span of four seasons.

Joe Saunders, Angels

How long can Saunders keep this act up? He posted a 3.41 ERA last season, but a low whiff rate (4.68 K/9) and good fortune on balls in play (.267 BABIP) indicated that regression would find him: his FIP was a less-impressive 4.36. In 2009, Saunders has posted an identical 3.41 ERA in 31.2 frames, yet his FIP has trailed further south (4.87), while his strikeout total (2.56 K/9) would make Kirk Rueter blush. Again benefitting from a low BABIP (.252), Saunders is a great sell-high candidate.

Travis Hafner, Indians

Wither Pronk? Hafner (coming off an ugly, injury-marred 2008 season) had been doing his best “Hulk Smash” impression in the early portion of the season, posting a .394 wOBA and a .270 ISO. Unfortunately, his surgically repaired shoulder again acted up, pushing him to the DL. On the positive side, Hafner’s absence should open the door for the recently recalled Matt LaPorta.

Oliver Perez, Mets

Perez’s scattershot control has come completely off the rails in 2009. Never known for painting the corners, Perez has issued 8.72 BB/9 this year, with a near-ten ERA and a 6.17 FIP. When he’s not walking the yard, Ollie has surrendered line drives at a 29% clip. Batters have understandably plastered the lumber to their shoulders, chasing Perez’s outside offerings just 13.2% of the time (the lowest rate among starters). The 27 year-old’s fastball is coming in at 89.2 MPH (down two ticks from last year). Is Perez hurt? And if not, isn’t that almost worse?

In 2009, the American League East figures to host a battle of potent opposing forces not seen since Red Sox fan Stephen King authored The Stand. The Sox, Yankees and Rays are arguably the three most complete teams in baseball, yet at least one of the clubs will be bitterly viewing October baseball from the recliner instead of experiencing it firsthand. With the gap between the trio extremely slim (BP’s PECOTA system has all three within 92-98 victories), one big performance could make all the difference. From Boston’s perspective, perhaps no one player will be more closely scrutinized than “Big Papi”, David Ortiz.

Ortiz’s career path hasn’t exactly been conventional. Signed by the Seattle Mariners back in 1992, the Dominican Republic native was shipped to Minnesota as the PTBNL in a September 1996 trade for third baseman Dave Hollins. Ortiz never cracked 500 PA’s in a season for the Twins, generally posting wOBA’s in the .350 range. Respectable for a DH, but the Twinkies decided to cut bait after a 2002 season in which the 26 year-old batted .272/.339/.500 in 466 PA. Ortiz’s tenure in Minnesota is remembered more for injuries (wirst and knee) and unfulfilled promise than anything else.

The rest, of course, is history. Signed for just one year and $1.25 million prior to the 2003 season, Ortiz exploded in Boston. From 2003-2007, “Big Papi” posted continually improved his performance, becoming a devastating hitter. His wOBA’s over that period: .400, .408, .418 and .448. He slugged .600+ from ’04 to ’07 (his .592 mark in ’03 just missed), and his Win Values were truly impressive: 3.4 in ’03, 4.7 in ’04, 5.8 in ’05, 5.9 in ’06 and 6.7 in ’07.

In 2008, however, Ortiz’s performance went from that of a super hero to the realm of mere mortals. During his age 32 season, the 6-4, 230 pound slugger dealt with a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist. Wrist injuries often sap a player’s bat control and power, and that appeared to be the case with Ortiz. He turned in a merely good .264/.369/.507 line with a .372 wOBA. His Isolated Power, which ranged from .290 to .349 during his 2003-2007 tear, checked in at .243.

One of the more interesting questions of the spring is to what extent Ortiz will bounce back: will a healed Papi resume posting the monstrous offensive levels we came to expect over his first 5 years in Boston, or has decline started to set in? Ortiz turned 33 in November, and possesses the kind of talent set that often garners the pejorative “old player’s skills” label. His wrist is said to be sound, but he is now dealing with a shoulder issue as well.

For 2009, CHONE projects Ortiz to basically split the difference between his 2003-2007 mashing and his “down” 2008 campaign, with a .284/.401/.555 line and a .413 wOBA. PECOTA is less sanguine, forecasting what amounts to a repeat ’08 performance with a .269/.375/.503 triple-slash line.

Ortiz’s most comparable players via Baseball-Reference are a mixed bag: number one comp Jason Giambi was still a productive hitter last season at 37, though he has thrown in a couple of down years (’04 and ’07) and has dealt with injuries. Carlos Delgado had many writing him off early last season, but he rebounded to turn in a 127 OPS+ in his age 36 season. Papi’s number three comp is more nefarious: Mo Vaughn, a former Sox slugger, whose career was essentially over by age 34. The list also includes Richie Sexson, whose bat shriveled up at 32. Not that these comparables offer some definitive insight into Ortiz’s future, but they are fun to consider.

The most prudent course of action for fantasy owners to take regarding David Ortiz would be to expect something closer to last year’s milder line than his leviathan .400 OBP/.600+ SLG peak seasons. Perhaps Ortiz will return to his 2003-2007 style beat down of AL hurlers. However, as a 33 year-old with some emerging health issues, Papi seems more likely to be good as opposed to the unstoppable force that teamed with Manny Ramirez to give pitchers nightmares.

What do you guys think? Will Big Papi make a triumphant return, or is Medium Papi here to stay?