Archive for David Huff

Here is the latest update to Week 18 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – Lester
MIL – Gallardo
DET – Washburn
NYY – Pettitte
STL – Pineiro
BAL – Matusz
CLE – Huff

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

NYY – Chamberlain
BOS – Penny
TEX – Feldman
BAL – Bergesen
DET – French
CLE – Laffey

Lester had a string of six straight Quality Starts snapped in his last outing July 30th versus the A’s, when he gave up 4 ER in 5.2 IP in a no-decision. He has two road starts this week with games at Tampa and at New York. So far in 2009 Lester’s ERA is 4.52 in road games, compared to 3.33 in Fenway Park.

Gallardo has reeled off back-to-back wins after being saddled with a loss in three straight appearances. In his last outing, Gallardo fanned 11 batters and allowed just one walk in seven innings versus the Nationals. The solo walk was an encouraging sign for Gallardo, who has allowed a career-high 4.27 BB/9 this season.

Washburn makes his first starts for his new team this week and fantasy owners are eager to find out if his good fortune this season follows him to Detroit. Washburn has a .249 BABIP and a 79.5 percent strand rate this season. His FIP checks in at 3.76, more than a run higher than his 2.64 ERA. Washburn has a lifetime 5.33 ERA in Comerica Park, where he will make both starts this week.

Pettitte seeks to snap a three-game losing streak this week. The Yankees lefthander has not won since July 1st, a stretch that covers five games. In that span he has a 5.34 ERA. After starting the season with a 5-1 record, Pettitte has a 3-5 mark with a 4.92 ERA over his past 11 starts and has allowed eight HRs in 64 IP.

Pineiro picked up four losses in June despite a 2.65 ERA for the month. So in July he posted a 1.22 ERA and went 3-0 in five starts. Pineiro is continuing to serve up grounders, as 61 percent of his batted balls are beat into the ground. His GB/FB ratio of 2.70 easily leads the majors and he has the lowest HR/FB mark (3.0%) of all qualified pitchers.

Matusz is scheduled to make his major league debut this week subbing for the injured Bergesen. The 6’5 LHP was a combined 11-2 this season between two levels, including 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA at Double-A Bowie. The fourth overall pick in the 2008 Draft, Matusz has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s and he fanned 120 batters in 112 innings in the minors.

Huff has a 6.39 ERA but has received an average run support of 6.05 runs per game, which explains how he sits at 5-5 after 14 games. But with a 1.58 WHIP and a K/9 ratio of 4.62 Huff is not a good fantasy pitcher regardless of how much run support he receives.

Here is the latest update to Week 12 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

ATL – Hanson
BOS – Penny
NYM – Hernandez
STL – Pineiro
CLE – Huff

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CLE – Pavano

Hanson is coming off a six scoreless inning performance. Considering how much trouble he has had with both walks (5.09 BB/9) and homers (1.53 HR/9) it is surprising how he sits with a 2-0 record. His FIP is 5.78 after three starts but Hanson has had basically one bad inning so far, back in his first start when he gave up two homers and four runs to the Brewers.

Penny figured to be the odd man out when John Smoltz returned from the disabled list but the combination of his continued solid pitching, along with Daisuke Matsuzaka’s poor performance has given Penny another life. In his last six outings, Penny is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 34.2 innings.

Hernandez may be the Mets’ best pitcher right now. And that is equal parts reflective of how poor the team’s other pitchers have been lately along with how well Hernandez has pitched. In 13 starts this year, he has had just three bad outings and he has posted seven Quality Starts this year. Hernandez’ main problem has been the gopher ball. He has allowed 11 homers in 79.2 innings and seven of those came in the three bad starts.

Pineiro has a .321 BABIP to go along with a 62.7 percent strand rate. His success this year has come thanks to a microscopic walk rate (1.18 BB/9) and an even smaller home run rate (0.22 HR/9). Still he leads the National League with eight losses and the Cardinals have scored three runs or less for him in nine of his 13 starts. He gets an average of 3.71 runs per game but it is only that high thanks to a 12-run outburst in one game.

Huff has an 11-5 record the past two seasons in Triple-A but has found major league hitters harder to handle. He has advanced to the sixth inning just one time in seven outings. His 7.09 ERA comes along with a 1.64 WHIP and a 1.91 HR/9 ratio.

Over the next week, I am going to run a series of “Position Battles” articles, examining some of the more intriguing fights for everyday jobs that will be taking place during spring training. So far, here’s the list:

-Cleveland’s rotation
-Washington’s OF/1B glut
-Yankees’ CF job
-Minnesota’s OF
-Cubs’ 5th starter
-Mets’ fifth starter
-White Sox’ 2B

If there are any other position battles that you would like me to take a look at, please feel free to suggest them in the comments section.

Today, we’re going to kick things off with the back of the Cleveland Indians’ rotation. Despite the immaculate campaign turned in by lefty Cliff Lee (2.83 FIP, 5/1 K/BB ratio), the Tribe’s starting corps was a middle-of-the-pack outlet in 2008. Cleveland’s starters ranked 8th in the American League in team FIP (4.30), as ’07 ace Fausto Carmona dealt with injuries and a subsequent loss of command, and dependable mid-rotation cog Jake Westbrook fell victim to Tommy John surgery.

The Indians posted 84 third-order wins in ’08 in an AL Central Division where the highest total was Chicago’s 88. With no team in the Central appearing to have a clear upper hand, Cleveland might just be the favorites to snag a division title at this point: Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system projects an 83-79 season for the club, without another AL Central team reaching the .500 mark. If the Tribe are going to get back to October baseball, they will need to conjure up a suitable back of the rotation from a list that offers quantity, but varying quality.

As things currently stand, Lee and Carmona are the only starters who can be marked down in permanent ink. The third man, according to Cleveland’s official depth chart, is none other the Carl Pavano (assuming he hasn’t been injured since the end of this sentence). The much-maligned former Yankee inked a one-year, $1.5 million deal this winter, with over $5M in possible incentives. The last time Pavano threw 100 innings (heck, the last time he threw more than 34 innings) was 2005. The 33 year-old made 7 starts for the Bombers last year, posting a 5.37 FIP. Pavano has never been a high-strikeout hurler (career 5.75 K/9), but he fanned less than four batters per nine innings in 2008. His fastball velocity, about 90 MPH in prior years, was down to 88 MPH. Even if Pavano is physically sound (no sure bet, obviously), you’ll probably want to look elsewhere for rotation help.

Former Cardinals golden boy Anthony Reyes is currently penciled into the fourth slot. The former USC product, acquired last summer for reliever Luis Perdomo, has a sustained track record of success in the minors but has thus far failed to stay out of the trainer’s room. Reyes punched out 9.46 batters per nine innings in the minors, walking a solid 2.15 per nine as well. The problems for Reyes seem to be two-fold: one, he seemingly prefers to work up in the zone with his 90 MPH heater, which can lead to some souvenirs being deposited in the bleachers (1.38 HR/9 in his major league career). There’s no way to know for sure, but some have suggested that Reyes’ falling out with St. Louis’ pitching coach Dave Duncan stemmed from Duncan’s preference for a two-seamer while Reyes preferred to continue using the four-seamer.

The flat-billed, high-socked 27 year-old also has a delivery that some believe is detrimental to his long-term health. Via Driveline Mechanics, here’s Kyle Boddy’s take on Reyes’ mechanics:

“As you can plainly see (I slowed it down to make sure), Reyes still gets his elbow way up there in hyperabduction and takes his elbow well behind the acromial line in forced horizontal shoulder abduction. What I didn’t notice before is a bad grab (tension in the wrist) and an absolutely terrible followthrough – look how he slams the brakes on his arm after he releases it!”

Reyes’ delivery puts an undue amount of stress on his shoulder and elbow. Boddy then goes on to list the litany of injuries that Reyes has endured:

“2004: Missed two months to shoulder tendinitis.
2005: Missed two weeks to a sprained acromioclavicular (AC) joint.
Mid-2008: Missed two weeks with an elbow injury.
Late 2008: Missed the rest of the regular season with an elbow injury. “

Reyes is someone to keep an eye on, but his homer-happy tendencies and lengthy injury history may preclude him from ever making good on the promise he showed as a Cardinals farm hand.

Left-hander Aaron Laffey currently fills the fifth spot for the Tribe. 24 in April, Laffey blows no one away with his stuff: the 2003 16th-rounder threw his fastball at an average velocity of 86.6 MPH in 2008, supplementing the modest sinker with a high-70’s slider and low-80’s changeup. In 25 careers starts between the ’07 and ’08 seasons, Laffey has posted a 4.48 FIP, relying on good control (2.71 BB/9) and groundball tendencies (54.9 GB%) to counteract few missed bats (4.28 K/9).

Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix put Laffey under the microscope and concluded that the 6-0, 185 pounder could be an adequate solution in the back of a fantasy rotation. A guy who puts the ball in play as often as Laffey is no sure thing, but his control/groundball combo makes the low K rate a little easier to swallow. Keep an eye on Cleveland’s infield situation: a worm-killer like Laffey would benefit most if new Indian Mark DeRosa were installed at second, shifting plus defender Asdrubal Cabrera to shortstop and Jhonny Peralta to third.

A southpaw plucked out of UCLA in 1st round of the 2006 draft, David Huff might possess the most long-term potential of Cleveland’s plethora of back-rotation candidates. Huff is fresh off a 2008 season in which he tore through AA and AAA, and he’s knocking on the door step of the big leagues. With Akron (AA), the 6-2 lefty punched out 62 batters in 65.2 innings (8.5 K/9), also showcasing sharp control with 1.92 BB/9. Bumped up to Buffalo, Huff owned the International League, striking out 9.04 hitters per nine innings with 1.67 BB/9. The former Bruin doesn’t quite have the knock-out scouting reports to go with those superb numbers, but his stuff is quite solid: per Baseball America, Huff supplements an 87-92 MPH fastball with a plus changeup, an improved slider and the occasional curveball.

Jeremy Sowers might be the most familiar name on this list, though his chances of cracking the starting rotation appear quite grim. The finesse lefty has posted a FIP in excess of five in the big leagues in ’07 and ’08, and even his 2006 showing that got people talking (3.57 ERA) produced just a 4.57 FIP. Sowers is basically Aaron Laffey without the groundballs. At best, he’s an adequate fifth starter in the majors.

Like Sowers (Vanderbilt), Scott Lewis is a southpaw out of a major college program (Ohio State). Despite rather modest stuff (mid-80’s fastball, mid-70’s slider, low-70’s curve, high-70’s change), Lewis has posted some wacky minor league stats. The former Buckeye struck out about 7.5 batters per nine innings between AA and AAA last season, walking scarcely a batter per nine to boot. Before you get too excited, do keep in mind the aforementioned scouting reports, his health history (Tommy John surgery, biceps tendinitis) and Lewis’ flyball tendencies. I took a gander at Lewis earlier this offseason:

“So, what can we expect of Lewis in 2009 and beyond? His minor league track record is quite good, but we are also talking about a guy who throws 87 MPH on a good day, with flyball tendencies to boot. Will hitters continue to flail at Lewis’ changeup, or will they learn to lay off of it and make him use his mild heater? Will the home run bug bite him at the highest level of competition? Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system offered an eclectic mix of possible outcomes for Lewis’ career before last season. Among Lewis’ most comparable players were Ted Lilly and Randy Wolf on the positive side, and Casey Fossum on the opposite end of the spectrum. It’s probably best to take a wait-and-see approach with Lewis in 2009. Finesse, flyball lefties generally don’t fare well in the DH league.”

Zach Jackson, yet another lefty, is an ostensible candidate for a starting job. However, you probably want to avoid this one: an extra chip tossed in to the CC Sabathia deal, Jackson has posted a FIP around 4.50 over the past few years in AAA, with few K’s and just average control.

Some of you are probably wondering, “where’s Adam Miller?” For pragmatic reasons, I decided to not include him. Everyone knows the drill with Miller by now: blistering, mid-90’s heat, a devastating slider and a maddening propensity to get hurt: elbow and finger maladies limited Miller to 65.1 innings in 2007 and just 28.2 frames in 2008. Cleveland seems intent on keeping the 24 year-old in the bullpen as a means of self-preservation. If healthy, Miller could become dominant in a late-inning role.

Overall, the Indians have a bunch of contenders for those last three spots, though just how many quality options the club possesses remains to be seen. While a few of these guys might end up in the bullpen or AAA for the time being, it’s possible that most will see significant action, given the injury concerns with Pavano and Reyes. If Cleveland is to return to the postseason in a wide-open division, they’ll need a few of these guys to step up and provide value behind Lee and Carmona.

When evaluating the statistical track record of a pitching prospect, I like to look at three main things:

Strikeout rate.

Walk rate.

Ground ball rate.

Obviously, components like velocity, scouting report, and the level at which the pitcher played are very important. But these three things tend to be the best way to quickly evaluate a pitching prospect. Guys who are above average in one of these three things can often be adequate major leaguers (assuming they can be above-average in the majors). Guys who are above average in two tend to be decent/pretty good major leaguers. And guys who are above average in all three tend to be very good.

David Huff is above average in all three.

Huff is not particularly dominant, and is unlikely to be an ace – either in real life, or in fantasy. However, he is above average in all three important factors. Furthermore, he throws in the low 90s and is very close to the majors.

Drafted in the first round back in 2006, Huff has shot through the Indians minor league system. He performed well in his first professional season in 2007 (he pitched in seven innings in 2006, but I won’t count those), posting a 46/15 K/BB ratio in 59 innings, while allowing only four homers. He induced a decent number of ground balls – 40.1% – but not a tremendous amount.

In 2008, Huff was promoted to double-A and improved in every area. At double-A Akron he posted a K/BB ratio of 62/14 in 65 innings, and induced grounders on 48% of his balls in play. Huff earned a promotion to triple-A, where he pitched in 80 innings, racking up 81 strikeouts while allowing only 15 walks. He even upped his ground ball percentage, inducing grounders on 50.9% of his balls in play. Furthermore, batters swung and missed at 9.8% of Huff’s pitches in triple-A (average at the major league level is around 7.5%).

In 2009, Huff is likely to begin the year in triple-A once again, as the Indians have several pitchers ahead of him on their depth chart, and they probably will not want him to begin accumulating service time on opening day. However, the Indians possess few pitchers who are as good as Huff, and the 24-year-old is almost certainly ready to perform at the major league level. Therefore, he will probably force his way into the Tribe’s rotation within the first month or two of the season.

David Huff doesn’t get a huge amount of strikeouts, or a huge amount of ground balls, but he’s shown the ability to accumulate an above-average amount of both. He’s also shown excellent control, which should be at least above-average at the major league level as well. Huff’s biggest strength is a lack of any pronounced weakness, and this should translate to a solid #3/4 starter in a big league rotation. While he lacks significant upside, Huff should be a nice late-round flier in AL only leagues (or very deep mixed leagues), and could be a nice addition off of the waiver wire in relatively shallow mixed leagues when he gets called up to the majors.