Archive for David Aardsma

All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some relief pitchers.

David Aardsma
Everyone expected Aardsma to regress this year, and his ADP reflected it. While he did do some regressing, he still has quite a bit in front of him. He gave up less fly balls this year, yet his BABIP dropped even lower. He still saved owners 31 games, but he didn’t even come close to touching last year’s value.
Crude 2011 Projection: 3.60 ERA, 5 saves, 8.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. The reduced number of saves is because I think he’ll be traded by the Mariners shortly after the offseason begins.

Matt Capps
The Nationals made a great decision this offseason, bringing Matt Capps in to be their closer. They ended up getting a solid prospect for him, and the Twins will be relying on him during this postseason. With Joe Nathan coming back, will the Twins send Capps packing, or will they keep him as insurance?
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.85 ERA, 10 saves, 7.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. While he’s a good pitcher, he’s not guarenteed to get saves next year. Play a wait and see approach with all of the Twins’ relievers.

Jonathan Broxton
Broxton was completely dominant during the first half of the year. He didn’t give up an earned run in April, and had a FIP of 0.19 during that month. 0.19! Something happened in the second half, though, and Broxton began to walk too many batters. The Dodgers lost all confidence in him, and he lost his job as the closer.
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.75 ERA, 30 saves, 11.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I don’t think he’ll slip in drafts, and he should be an elite player next season.

Daniel Bard
Bard didn’t pitch quite as well as expected, but he still did pretty well for himself. His value will all come down to Papelbon. Will he stay or will he go?
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.60 ERA, 27 saves, 9.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I think Papelbon gets traded, but the Red Sox bring in a veteran or two to keep Bard on his toes.

Drew Storen
As soon as he was drafted, Storen was labeled the Nationals “closer of the future.” The Nationals had him put his work in for the minor league affiliates, and then gave him some chances once Matt Capps was traded. With a full season in the organization under his belt, will the Nationals turn over the ball to Storen in the ninth inning?
Crude 2011 Projection: 3.33 ERA, 20 saves, 9.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. Like Bard, I think he becomes the closer but loses some opps to a veteran presence.

If you have a relief pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Matt Holliday and trade Russell Branyan last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Jermaine Dye – He is striking out more than he ever has and his AVG is a disappointing .270 so far. His fantasy value is being propped up by HR but he has a 25 percent HR/FB rate. These are reasons why his current owner might trade him. But Dye has just a .243 AVG at home, thanks to a .234 BABIP at U.S. Cellular. He’s batted over .300 at home two of the last three seasons and has never had an AVG that low in his previous four years in Chicago. Dye is also uncharacteristically struggling versus LHP, against whom he has just a .152 AVG. Lifetime he is a .284 hitter versus southpaws. Even with a regression in HR, the updated ZiPS projects him to hit 24 the rest of the season and finish with 36 HR, which exceeds all of the pre-season projections.

David Aardsma – Since Brandon Morrow blew back-to-back saves on May 13-14, Aardsma has three saves and Morrow has none. Additionally, Morrow has pitched multiple innings in the sixth and seventh in his last three outings. Walks have always been a major issue for Aardsma and this year is no different. But this is a guy who is at the very least in the running for saves and is available on the waiver wire in over half of ESPN leagues.

Aubrey Huff – The updated ZiPS forecast shows Huff finishing below last year’s output in every fantasy category. But Huff is also a notoriously slow starter. At this point last year, Huff was batting .240-6-24 and he finished .304-32-108. It’s almost impossible to predict the finish that Huff enjoyed last season, but since he’s starting from a higher baseline, he doesn’t have quite so far to go. Huff already has a nice .209 ISO and his BB/K numbers are better than a year ago. He currently has a .277 BABIP, 20 points below his lifetime mark and 42 points below what he hit last year.

Joe Saunders – There is not one advanced metric that suggests you should pick him up. But at some point we have to stop looking at what we think he should do and instead look at what he has done. Saunders has a lifetime .691 winning percentage with a sub-four ERA in 73 games. The updated ZiPS forecast is not pretty; it shows him going 9-9 with a 4.40 ERA from here on out. That’s slightly more pessimistic than the pre-season projections forecasted for him. If you can acquire him for the price of his expected ZiPS for the remainder of 2009, I like Saunders’ chances of beating that projection.

Coco Crisp – His .751 OPS is identical to what it was a year ago. But in 2009, Crisp is achieving that with a .250 BABIP compared to a .322 mark last season. He may not crack double-digits in HR this season, but it would not be a surprise to see him bat .300 with 20 SB the rest of the way.

Trade

Jason Bartlett – At some point fantasy owners will start to take Bartlett seriously. Currently, his .373-7-30-32-14 line makes him the third-best fantasy player overall according to CBS Sports. The key for Bartlett owners is to find the moment when other owners feel enough time has elapsed to make him a serious acquisition target. Some owners may never consider Bartlett a trade target. That’s okay. The updated ZiPS shows him compiling a .293-5-36-52-15 line from here on out. Yes, a huge decline from where he is now, but still a valuable fantasy SS that could help most clubs. Bartlett owners have already “won” with his production until now. If they can get equivalent value for Bartlett’s RoS ZiPS at a position of need, that should be a win-win deal for both sides.

Zach Duke – He should be an attractive target for clubs that need pitching with his 2.60 K/BB ratio and 3.56 FIP. But Duke has a .261 BABIP and a 5.9 percent HR/FB ratio. Linear Weights shows his fastball turning from an awful pitch the last three seasons to one that is neutral despite having no increase in velocity. His RoS ZiPS shows him with an ERA of 5.24 and a 5-10 record.

B.J. Upton – The time to get a good return on Upton has come and gone. Now we are left with trying to salvage something for the rest of the year. He is striking out at an alarming rate (31.5%) and hitting for no power (.097 ISO). RoS ZiPS sees him hitting .257 with 11 HR. It is possible his trade value still exceeds that meager production.

Johnny Cueto – Everyone expected Cueto to improve upon last year’s numbers, although not many predicted what he’s produced so far in 2009. But Cueto’s lofty numbers carry several warning signs. His 3.64 FIP is well above his 2.37 ERA. Cueto has benefited from an 83.1 percent strand rate and a .253 BABIP. His K/9 is down 1.2 from a season ago and his HR/9 is less than half of what it was in 2008.

Michael Bourn – A one-category performer (SB), Bourn has actually been a plus in three categories so far, adding runs and AVG to his ledger. But the .366 BABIP won’t last and you should actively shop him to someone looking to make up ground in SB.

The Seattle Mariners enter spring training with a wide-open situation in the bullpen. The M’s will no longer give the ball to J.J. Putz in the ninth inning, as the soon-to-be 32 year-old was shipped to the Mets in a twelve-player package. Also headed to Queens in that swap was groundball specialist Sean Green. After two years of, well, putsing around in the ‘pen, 2006 first-rounder Brandon Morrow will be moved to the rotation on a full-time basis. So, who’s left in that Seattle bullpen? Let’s take a look.

The top returning reliever, per WPA, is righty Roy Corcoran. The smallish 28 year-old turned in a 3.81 FIP and kept his infielders very busy (69.5 GB%), but there’s some question about the repeatability of his work. The former Expo/Nat struck out about as many batters (4.83 K/9) as he walked (4.46 BB/9) and his career minor league walk rate (4.14 BB/9) is rather high as well. Low-K pitchers can be plenty successful by inducing grounders and limiting walks, but Corcoran doesn’t appear to have the control to make that equation work.

Mark Lowe, 28, is coming off of a season in which he posted a 4.42 FIP. He punched out 7.77 batters per nine innings, but his control often evaded him (4.81 BB/9). The 6-3, 200 pounder has long been on prospect lists due to his mid-90’s heat/mid-80’s slider combo, but injuries (shoulder impingement as well as microfracture surgery on his elbow in an effort to regenerate cartilage in the joint) have held him back. If you’re looking for a guy who fits the closer profile from a “stuff” standpoint, it’s probably Lowe.

Like Lowe, David Aardsma is a flame-throwing righty without sharp command. The 27 year-old’s mix of mid-90’s fastballs and hard sliders have yet to produce anything but angst for his employers, as Aardsma has skipped between the Giants, Cubs, White Sox and Red Sox, before ending up in Seattle for minor league southpaw Fabian Williamson. The 2003 first-rounder has fanned his fair share of hitters in the bigs (8.65 K/9), but an atrocious walk rate (5.6 BB/9) has kept him from being anything more than a replacement-level reliever, with a 4.90 FIP. One thing to watch: according to our pitch data, Aardsma started using an upper-80’s splitter (thrown 10.9% of the time) in addition to his fastball and slider. The chances of Aardsma finally delivering are long, but the M’s have some experience with a control-challenged reliever adding a splitter and subsequently taking off.

Tyler Walker, formerly of the Giants, might also be able to work his way into the mix. The 32 year-old posted a 4.24 FIP last season, with 8.27 K/9 and 3.54 BB/9. The 6-3, 275 pounder works in the low 90’s with his fastball, but has progressivley become more reliant on a low 80’s slider (thrown 30% in ’06, 31.4% in ’07 and 40.3% in ’08).

It’s also possible that some of the team’s rotation excess ends up in the ‘pen, particularly lefties Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ryan Feierabend. Rowland-Smith appeared in 47 games last season (12 starts), posting a 4.53 FIP. His fastball won’t overwhelm anyone (88.7 MPH), but he also mixes in a slider, curve and a changeup on a fairly regular basis. Similarly, Feierabend supplements modest heat (87.8 MPH) with three offspeed pitches, relying heavily upon a high-70’s changeup.

Another long-term name to keep in mind is Josh Fields. The former Georgia Bulldog closer was selected by the Braves in the ’07 amateur draft, but the club didn’t meet his bonus demands. After improving his stock during the 2008 season, Fields was nabbed by the M’s with the 20th overall pick and…didn’t sign, at least not right away. The Boras client recently came to terms, however, receiving a bonus nearing $2 million (as a college senior, Fields had up until next June’s draft to negotiate a contract). The 23 year-old righty fits the profile of a late-inning reliever better than any of the current options, as he comes equipped with mid-90’s gas and a hard curveball. The 6-0, 180 pounder is likely the heir apparent to Putz in the long run.