Archive for Dana Eveland

Arizona Diamondbacks acquired LHP Dontrelle Willis from the Detroit Tigers for RHP Billy Buckner.

As part of the deal, the Tigers will pick up what’s left of Willis’ $12 million salary for the 2010 season, save for the prorated portion of the big league minimum.

From 2003-2006, Dontrelle averaged 3.8 Wins Above Replacement per season. Since then, the lefty with the signature leg kick has racked up just 0.7 WAR, losing all semblance of strike zone control while battling knee, forearm and anxiety issues.

Happily, Willis is backing to taking regular turns in the rotation. But it’s difficult to be especially optimistic about his ability to contribute. Moving back to the NL certainly won’t hurt the D-Train’s chances of a career revival, but in 43.1 IP with the Tigers this season, he had 6.85 K/9, 6.02 BB/9, a 45.5 GB% and a 4.93 xFIP.

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Last week we talked about Felipe Lopez coming back and Brendan Ryan struggling. We recommended picking up Lopez because he would probably take the starting shortstop job. Now that he’s back, and it’s looking like that’s the case, we’re the ones looking stupid for not having followed our own advice. And yes, that’s the royal ‘we.’ On to this week’s recommendations.

Casey Blake (47% owned)
Bet you didn’t know that Casey Blake was 36 years old, did you? The fact that he debuted old (30 years old) isn’t good news for the bell curve of his career. We do know that players that debut later usually leave the league earlier, too. That seems to be the case whether that’s because players that debut later need to be closer to their peak in order to be MLB-quality, and therefore drop out earlier as they age because they fall from that peak level, or whether it’s for some other reason. Well, Blake has had a decidedly okay run, but things aren’t looking great. He’s got a six-year low in ISO and a career high in strikeout rate. It’s not luck that’s keeping him down, at least not batted-ball luck – his BABIP is .291. Instead, he’s seeing a career-low of pitches in the zone and swinging at a career high of pitches outside the zone. His contact rate is at a career low. Hmmm… why would you want to pick him up again? Well, because .260-hitting corner infielders with a little bit of power don’t just grow on trees. In certain leagues, he’ll be useful. In just such a league of mine he was dropped. Just don’t go trading your starting 3B because you picked him up is all I’m saying.

Jim Thome (5% owned)
Thome’s ownership levels are surprisingly low for a guy that’s blasted five home runs in only 75 at-bats. The good news is that he’s still his old three-true-outcome self – walking (17.6%), striking out (27.6%) and jacking dongers (.267 ISO). Though he’s also seeing a career-low pitches in the zone, the rest of his swing rate statistics are mostly in line with his career. It seems that he’s in a crowded house, but 75 at bats over 39 games is on pace for about 311 at-bats, and if he keeps hitting home runs, he’ll get more time against righties, against whom he’s done well this year (.280/.438/.600) and career (.294/.429/.614). If you have a space on your bench and can be vigilant about who is starting in Minny on a daily basis, Thome will collect you some home runs for sure.

Marc Rzepczynski (1% owned)
Maybe this is my ‘hunch,’ but Rzep/Scrabble just made his first rehab start today and might join the Jays within a week. Then again, he gave up nine runs in 2 1/3 innings in that re-hab start and Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil are enough a part of the future and have shown enough this year that they should keep their jobs even when Scrabble returns. So that leaves Dana Eveland as the crux of the argument. Certainly his ERA (4.98) doesn’t argue for his inclusion in the rotation, and his secondary stats are even worse (4.15 K/9, 5.19 BB/9, 5.58 xFIP). Doesn’t seem like too much is in Scrabble’s way. As long as he can find his old groundballing (51.2% last year) and strikeout (8.8 K/9 last year) ways, he’ll be a much better solution. Hopefully the Jays will also see things this way.

Ownership numbers from Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

San Diego Padres signed C Yorvit Torrealba to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $3.5 million mutual option for the 2011 season.

Torrealba, 31, is expected to split time behind the dish with Nick Hundley. Dusty Ryan, designated for assignment by the Tigers and picked up by the Padres in a December trade, is likely ticketed for Triple-A Portland.

In part-time play last year, Torrealba turned in his best offensive season since he was a Giant back in 2004. He batted .291/.351/.380 in 242 plate appearances with the Rockies. However, there’s little reason to believe that he’ll replicate that production in 2010.

Torrealba’s BABIP was .355 in 2009, compared to a .298 career mark in the majors. And clearly, the change in home ballparks is massive. When you take Coors Field into account, Torrealba’s ’09 production at the plate was still 16 percent worse than average (84 wRC+). His career wRC+ with Colorado is 77.

So, with plenty of extra hits dropping in and the benefit of Coors, Torrealba was still a tepid batter. Now, he’s going to cavernous Petco, anathema to all things offense. CHONE projects a .242/.301/.353 line in 2010, with a 73 wRC+.

Oakland Athletics traded LHP Dana Eveland to the Toronto Blue Jays for a PTBNL or cash.

A husky left-hander, Eveland has now been traded three times during his career. The Brewers’ 16th-round pick in the 2002 draft was swapped to the Diamondbacks in November of 2006, and then headed to Oakland in December of 2007 as a sweetener in the Dan Haren deal.

In four seasons at the Triple-A level, the 26 year-old punched out 7.7 batters per nine frames, with 3.4 BB/9. He struggled in three cups of coffee in the majors from 2005-2007.

But Eveland tossed 168 frames in 29 starts with the A’s in 2008, with 6.32 K/9, 4.13 BB/9 and a 4.55 xFIP. There’s nothing awe-inspiring about that line, and he did often back himself into hitter’s counts (54.7 first-pitch strike percentage, compared to the 58-59% MLB average).

However, Eveland’s four-pitch mix garnered ground balls 48.7 percent of the time. His 90 MPH fastball was worth -0.31 runs per 100 pitches, with his high-70’s curve (-0.18) and low-80’s changeup (-0.49) also in the red. But Eveland’s bread-and-butter offering was a low-80’s slider, thrown over 23 percent of the time with a +1.76 run value per 100 tosses.

2009, by comparison, was a disaster. In 44 frames with Oakland, Eveland struck out just 22 batters and issued 26 free passes. He wasn’t 7.16 ERA-level bad, but that 5.20 xFIP was still plenty grim. Eveland’s fastball velocity dipped to 88.7 MPH. At Triple-A Sacramento, the southpaw posted rates of 6.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9, with a 4.33 FIP in 124 innings.

There’s little downside from Toronto’s perspective, as they pick up the recently DFA’d Eveland at little cost. If he can find the form that allowed him to pitch at a league-average level in ’08, Eveland could fight for a spot at the back of the Blue Jays’ rotation. It’s an awfully crowded competition, however. His CHONE forecast for 2010? A 4.59 FIP in 144 innings, with 5.44 K/9 and 3.94 BB/9.

Washington Nationals signed INF Adam Kennedy to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $2 million club option for the 2011 season.

Kennedy will man second base for the Nationals, meaning that Cristian Guzman will remain at shortstop for the time being and that Ian Desmond does not have a defined role with the club at the outset of the 2010 season.

Signed to a minor league deal by the Rays last year, Kennedy was traded to the A’s and split his time between second and third base. In 587 PA, Kennedy batted .289/.348/.410 with a 108 wRC+. He nabbed 20 bases in 26 attempts to boot.

Kennedy didn’t come anywhere near that offensive level from 2006 to 2008 (a combined 77 wRC+), and he turned 34 in January. It’s not surprising, then, that the projection systems aren’t too fond of him: CHONE calls for an 89 wRC+, as does Marcel. Given his multi-position eligibility and ability to swipe some bags, Kennedy could have a tiny bit of value in NL formats early next season. Just don’t expect an ’09 repeat.

Here on Saturday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Saturday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Daniel Cabrera (2%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Wells. Cabrera does not have the fastball he once had, although he can still reach the mid-90s. However, the walks are just as bad as they have always been. He is averaging 7.63 BB/9 this year. As if that was not bad enough, he has a .321 BABIP and a 58 percent strand rate.

Yorman Bazardo (1%) – Has a road start in New York versus Misch. In five games as a starter, Bazardo is 1-2 with a 9.43 ERA. He can hit the mid-90s with his fastball, but like Cabrera he has averaged more walks (6.26) than strikeouts (5.60) per nine innings this year. Bazardo has a 1.44 GB/FB ratio but a 25.8 LD%. It all adds up to a pitcher who has allowed 25 ER in 27.1 IP in the majors this season.

Pat Misch (3%) – Has a home start versus Bazardo and the Astros. After three straight poor outings, the Mets threatened to remove Misch from the rotation. But he got another chance and hurled a complete game shutout in his last start. Misch is 0-3 with an 8.57 ERA in Citi Field but has not faced Houston this season.

David Bush (22%) – Has a road start in St. Louis against Lohse. In his last seven starts, Bush is 2-5 with an 8.10 ERA. He is 4-4 with a 6.79 ERA in road games this year. Against the Cardinals Bush is 0-2 with an 8.71 ERA and a 1.935 WHIP.

Kyle Lohse (41%) – Has a home start versus Bush and the Brewers. In his last eight games, Lohse is 2-3 with a 6.48 ERA. This year he is 5-3 with a 3.75 ERA in Busch Stadium. In two appearances versus Milwaukee, Lohse is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA.

Dana Eveland (5%) – Has a home game versus Kazmir and the Angels. In 12 IP since being recalled from the minors, Eveland is 1-0 with a 5.11 ERA. Overall, he is 2-0 with a 4.60 ERA in McAfee Coliseum. In two games this year versus the Angels, Eveland has no record but a 7.71 ERA.

Anibal Sanchez (35%) – Has a road game in Philadelphia against Hamels. Sanchez is 1-2 in his last five games but he has a 2.51 ERA in that stretch, with 27 Ks in 28.2 IP. This season he has a 2-5 record with a 4.80 ERA in road games. In his only game against the Phillies, Sanchez pitched eight scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.

Scott Richmond (35%) – Has a road game in Baltimore against Hendrickson. In his last 10 games, Richmond is 2-5 with an 8.21 ERA. This year he is 4-5 with a 5.99 ERA in road games. But against the Orioles, Richmond is 2-0 with a 3.75 ERA this season.

Mark Hendrickson (2%) – Has a home start versus Richmond and the Blue Jays. Hendrickson started the first seven games of the season and then moved to the bullpen in mid-May. He returned to the rotation in mid-September and has made three straight starts, in which he is 0-1 with a 4.11 ERA. In that span, Hendrickson has 3 Ks and 5 HR in 15.1 IP. He is 3-2 with a 5.73 ERA at Camden Yards this year. In four games against Toronto, Hendrickson is 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA.

Freddy Garcia (14%) – Has a road game in Detroit against Figaro. Garcia has pitched at least six innings in each of his last seven games. In his last outing against the Tigers, he allowed 7 ER in 6.1 IP on 9/26.

Alfredo Figaro (1%) – Has a home start versus Garcia and the White Sox. Figaro had two starts for Detroit in the middle of the season and two relief appearces since being recalled in mid-September. He can dial it up in the mid-90s, which has led to an 8.04 K/9 this season for Detroit. But a 4.60 BB/9 combined with a .374 BABIP has made things tough for the rookie from the Dominican Republic.

Aaron Laffey (28%) – Has a road start in Boston against Beckett. Laffey has lost five consecutive starts and has a 5.46 ERA in that stretch. In 29.2 IP, he has a 2.023 WHIP and 9 Ks. He is 3-5 with a 4.98 ERA in road games this year and in 3 IP versus the Red Sox has not allowed an earned run.

Ryan Rowland-Smith (43%) – Has a home start versus Hunter and the Rangers. In his last 13 games, Rowland-Smith has eight Quality Starts. He is 3-2 with a 2.88 ERA at Safeco Field but has not faced Texas this season.

Wade LeBlanc (16%) – Has a home start versus Cain and the Giants. In his last five games, LeBlanc is 2-0 with a 2.48, with four of those starts coming on the road. In two games at Petco, LeBlanc has no record and a 4.00 ERA. He allowed 2 ER in 7 IP and picked up the win in his only outing against San Francisco this season.

With a month’s worth of games in the books, let’s take a quick look at the starting pitchers who have significantly over performed or underperformed, based on their Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). By taking a gander at those core numbers (strikeouts, walks, homers), we can get a better idea of which hot starts are unlikely to last or which “struggling” starters might be in for a rebound. Here’s a recap of those who have posted an ERA significantly higher than their FIP would indicate. These are the guys who will very likely post better numbers in the coming months, should their peripherals hold up.

Justin Verlander, Tigers

6.75 ERA, 3.22 FIP

Verlander’s ERA looks like something out of an Alfred Hitchcock horror film (how appropriate, given Comerica’s tendency to go to the birds). However, the Old Dominion product actually pitched very well in April: again flashing mid-90’s gas (his fastball is up to 95.3 MPH in ’09, after coming in at 93.6 MPH in ’08), Verlander has fooled 34 batters in 28 innings (10.93 K/9) while shaving slightly over 1 walk per nine innings off his ledger (2.89 BB/9, down from 3.90 last season). Only a mind-bending .408 BABIP and 50.3% strand rate have kept Verlander from being recognized as improved. Don’t let the Maroth-like ERA fool you: Verlander is dealing, and he’s a great buy-low candidate.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

6.92 ERA, 3.64 FIP

After a ridiculously productive second half in 2008, Nolasco has spurred a lot of “what’s wrong with him?” talk in the first month of the season. While his control hasn’t been especially sharp (3.12 BB/9, after a pinpoint 1.78 BB/9 in 2008), it’s not as though Nolasco is getting shelled and struggling horrendously. His K rate has remained stable (7.62 per nine): it’s the .391 BABIP that’s killing him (you’ll note a trend on this list: strong peripherals sabotaged by very poor showings on balls put in play) as well as a 56.9% strand rate. Don’t discard Nolasco at a bargain-basement price: he’ll likely reward you in the coming months.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox

7.22 ERA, 4.05 FIP

Beckett has gotten shelled his last two trips to the mound against New York and Tampa Bay, and to be sure, he hasn’t been ace-quality so far. He’s struggling to locate (5.02 BB/9, after walking less than 1.8 per nine in 2007 and 2008), and has placed just 42.3% of his pitches in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average, 53.5% career average). So, to say there are no problems would be incorrect. But still, a .398 BABIP and a 58.6% strand rate have made Beckett look like a batting practice dummy as opposed to a very good hurler who’s experiencing some control issues. Don’t hit the panic button just yet.

Joe Blanton, Phillies

8.41 ERA, 6.08 FIP

This falls into the “damning with faint praise” category, no? Unlike the first three guys on this list, Blanton has been legitimately bad. Or has he? FIP is a great stat, but it falls victim to wacky HR performances. Blanton has posted decent strikeout and walk ratios (an uncharacteristic 8.85 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9), but he’s giving up taters at a pace that would make Brett Myers laugh: 2.66 HR/9, on the back of a 22.2 HR/FB%. For comparison, Blanton’s career HR/FB% is 8.5.

If we used Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) instead, Blanton comes in at 4.41. That’s actually better than his 2008 mark, and is the third-best figure of his career. Blanton has basically been the same mid-rotation Average Joe in 2009, but has given up homers like he’s throwing under-handed with a beach ball.

Dana Eveland, Athletics

5.95 ERA, 3.79 FIP

Eveland might actually be the reverse of Blanton: his FIP says he’s been better, but I’m not so sure. He’s both struck out and walked 5.49 batters per nine innings, and has yet to allow a homer in 19.2 innings. His BABIP is a loopy .400, but it’s hard to recommend a guy who lacks both the fine touch to paint the corners (career 4.57 BB/9) and ability to punch out hitters with great frequency (6.71 K/9). At least he’s kept the ball on the ground (59.7 GB%).