Archive for Dallas Braden

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 20.

Bronson Arroyo – He has gotten a decision in his last 11 games. This week Arroyo has two road starts but he has pitched better this season away from Great American Ball Park. Arroyo is 7-3 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.065 WHIP in road action. Put him in your lineup this week.

Dallas Braden – Since returning from an elbow injury that required a DL stint, Braden is 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA. His K rate is a tick better at 5.9 percent but where he has really excelled is in limiting the gopher ball. In 35 IP he has allowed 3 HR. This week he has two home starts against the Blue Jays and Rays. While Toronto leads the AL in HR, it has done most of that damage at home, where it has clubbed 103 HR in 1,852 AB. Make sure Braden is active.

Jonathon Niese – In his last nine games, Niese has thrown a Quality Start in seven of them. The only two times he did not were against the Diamondbacks. This year he has an 8.68 ERA against Arizona and a 3.09 ERA versus the rest of the league. Niese has two road starts this week, but is road ERA (3.57) is nearly identical to his mark in pitcher-friendly Citi Field. The Mets are no longer talking about skipping Niese in the rotation and neither should you.

Wandy Rodriguez – In the middle of June, Rodriguez was 3-10 with a 6.09 ERA. From that point on, he is 6-1 with a 1.79 ERA, which is one of the most dramatic turnarounds you will see. He has a 5.4 K/BB rate with 59 Ks in 60.1 IP. His first start this week against Niese should be a dandy. Keep Rodriguez active.

Barry Zito – He has stepped up his game since the All-Star break, with a 2.57 ERA in six second-half games and a 7.93 K/9. But Zito has struggled in road games this year, with a 2-4 record and a 4.30 ERA. With road matchups this week against Roy Oswalt and Adam Wainwright, it might be a good time to stash him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 20 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lee Wainwright, J. Santana, Weaver, Price, Verlander, Kershaw, Hanson, Nolasco, Danks, Oswalt, Garza, Buchholz, Billingsley, Scherzer, B. Anderson, Vazquez, Baker, Marcum, Garland, Hunter, D. Hudson, Minor, Wells, Gorzelanny, Correia, Francis, Fister, McDonald, Volstad, Millwood, Tomlin, Olsen, Bergesen, Duke, Figueroa.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 18 pitchers and how they fared.

Cahill – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.765 WHIP (2 starts)
L. Hernandez – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 1.26 ERA, 0.977 WHIP (2)
D. Lowe – Advised to sit. W, 5 Ks, 2.38 ERA, 1.059 WHIP (2)
Myers – Advised to sit. 6 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to start. 2 W, 5Ks, 2.25 ERA, 1.083 WHIP (2)

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 13. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Dallas Braden – Since pitching his perfect game, Braden is 0-5 with a 1.417 WHIP. In his last three starts, he has allowed 26 hits in 17.2 IP. Leave him on the bench for his two road starts.

Jason Hammel – Upon being activated from the disabled list in mid-May, Hammel is 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA. While he has not pitched well on the road this season, he does get a start in Petco to go along with his home outing against the Giants. Ride the hot hand and make sure Hammel is in the lineup.

Ted Lilly – The Cubs lefty has hurled a Quality Start in eight of his last nine outings. He also has 30 Ks in his last 35 IP, so the Ks are coming back, too. With two home starts, including one against the Pirates, Lilly needs to be in your lineup this week.

Brandon Morrow – Wherever he pitches, Morrow piles up the strikeouts, with a 9.86 K/9. But he has not been a road warrior in 2010. Morrow is 0-4 with a 7.09 ERA and a 1.848 WHIP away from Toronto. It’s tough to pass up the possibility of 15+ Ks, but that ERA and WHIP are potential staff killers. Deactivate Morrow this week if you can.

Joel Pineiro – In his last four games, Pineiro is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA. He also is doing nice in strikeouts, with 22 Ks in 30.1 IP over that span. Activate him for his two home starts this week

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 13 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Jimenez, Wainwright, Carpenter, Lee, Cain, Gallardo, Strasburg, Liriano, Hughes, Haren, Hudson, Romero, Zito, Shields, Cueto, Leake, Nolasco, Buehrle, Carmona, Myers, Dickey, Billingsley, Bonderman, Takahashi, Matusz, Blanton, LeBlanc, Wells, Feldman, Correia, Kendrick, Blackburn, Parra, Westbrook, Maholm, LeRew, Norris, Karstens, Stammen.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 11 pitchers and how they fared.
Kuroda – Advised to sit. W, 1.50 ERA, 17 Ks, 1.000 WHIP (2 starts)
Marcum – Advised to sit. W, 2.25 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Masterson – Advised to start. 5.54 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.385 WHIP (2)
J. Sanchez – Advised to start. W, 3.48 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.645 WHIP (2)
Wilson – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.308 WHIP (2)

Carlos Guillen, Tigers (Owned in 10% of Yahoo leagues)

Guillen endured an injury-plagued 2009 season, missing a huge chunk of time from early May to late July with a left shoulder ailment. His line — .242/.339/.419 in 322 PA, with a .328 wOBA — combined with increasing fragility and a gradual slide down the defensive spectrum led many owners to write off the switch-hitter as over the hill.

Apparently, someone forgot to tell Guillen that he’s toast. That ’09 triple-slash was misleading, as his strong secondary skills (12.1 BB%, .177 Isolated Power) were obscured by a .263 BABIP. Guillen’s expected BABIP was .322. Injury has slowed Guillen again this season (a left hamstring strain that DL’d him from late April to late May), but his BABIP has bounced back to .309, and he’s batting .283/.337/.461 in 166 PA.

The former Astros prospect and Mariner has been unusually aggressive at the dish, hacking at 34.3% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (28.4% MLB average). That explains why he’s walking 7.8% of the time. But Guillen’s hitting with the same power as in ’09 (.178 ISO), and he has become a much more intriguing fantasy option with a move back up the defensive ladder — he’s manning the keystone spot for the Tigers. As a 34-year-old with a history of knee, hamstring, back and shoulder maladies, Guillen’s no sure thing. But a guy with a .278/.353/.459 rest-of-season ZiPS and position eligibility in the outfield and at second base is worth a roster spot.

Dallas Braden, Athletics (41%)

A 24th-round pick out of Texas Tech in the ’04 draft, Braden has achieved some level of fame by telling Alex Rodriguez to get off his mound and then twirling a perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 9th. He remains on the wire in most fantasy leagues, though, despite showing considerable improvement.

In 2009, Braden posted a 3.89 ERA in 136.2 innings before a nerve injury in his left foot ended his season in late July. His peripherals suggested he pitched more like a high-four’s ERA starter, however — with 5.33 K/9, 2.77 BB/9 and a very low ground ball rate (36.4 GB%), Braden had a 4.80 xFIP. While fewer fly balls become dingers at the Coliseum than most other parks (a HR/FB park factor of 92 from 2006-2009), Braden’s 4.7 HR/FB% looked primed to climb.

It has — Dallas is allowing homers on nine percent of fly balls hit against him. Yet his ERA is actually slightly lower, at 3.83. Unlike in 2009, Braden has done more to earn that mark. Tossing 94 frames so far, the 26-year-old lefty has struck out 5.55 batters per nine innings, walked just 1.53 per nine and has increased his ground ball rate to 42.4%. The result of Braden’s improved control and more neutral GB rate is a 4.06 xFIP. He’s never going to miss bats in the majors at anywhere near the insane clip that he did on the farm, but he’s more than an A-Rod agitator who had his 15 minutes of fame in May — Braden’s an above-average starter.

Once a pitcher holds the Yankees offense to two runs in six innings, fantasy owners sit up and take notice. In their defense, the 39% of Yahoo fantasy owners that still don’t own Dallas Braden have an excuse. For most of his career, Braden has had a strikeout rate closer to five than to the ML average (usually in the high sixes). That poor strikeout rate hasn’t been mitigated by a nice groundball rate either – Braden only burns worms at a 37.6% rate over his career. In fact, it’s hard to tell exactly what he’s done right, except a better-than-average walk rate (2.87 career) and a good changeup (+12.9 runs career).

Well, something’s changed, hasn’t it? Change is the key word here because Braden’s success this year has come from eschewing his fastball (-17.9 runs career) in favor of that changeup. So far this year, he’s throwing the changepiece 32% of the time (compared to 21.4% and 20.1% over the past two years). Just judging by the linear weights, that’s been a good idea, but there’s more to it. His changeup is getting a 22.1% whiff rate this year (anything around 20% is generally thought of as elite – for comparison’s sake, Johan Santana’s changeup had a 17.4% whiff rate last year). Braden’s fastball? A 7% whiff rate. What’s even better is that the fastball only got a 4.4% whiff rate last year – so using his changeup more has made his fastball even better.

Finally, we get to today’s start against the Yankees. Braden threw 81 pitches, and 21 were changeups, for a slightly-below average 26% for him. Even today’s number was above last year’s level, and it’s important to note that these numbers came from a crude Gameday tally, which may have classified some pitches a little differently. In any case, Braden is still going to the changeup more often, even though the 21 changeups today garnered only one whiff. A quick (sanity) check of last year’s whiff totals on the pitch shows that he got 13.7% whiff rates on the pitch last year in a larger sample size. It is reasonable to assume that using the changeup, and its better whiff rates, more often than his fastball is a good choice for Braden and that it will lead to better results.

It seems that Alex Rodriguez ran across the mound while heading back to first after a foul ball in today’s game. Some pitchers – like Braden – take offense to a player touching his mound. The event was timed to coincide with some discussion about Billy Beane saying that Braden had moxie. Well, Braden showed his moxie by barking at Rodriguez and showing him who was king of the hill, and then willing the Athletics to a victory despite two home runs and a triple play by the Yankees. Hopefully, he’ll combine that moxie with continued focus on his changeup. Fantasy owners will rejoice.

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 34 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Zack Greinke – His xFIP was 101 points higher than his ERA, making Greinke a sell high guy. This was a big win for FIP.

Joel Pineiro – After allowing just three home runs in 17 first half games, Pineiro served up eight home runs in 15 games after the break. This was a big win for xFIP.

Tim Lincecum – It was a very good second half of the season for Lincecum, just not as good as the first half. He did have a slightly higher HR/FB rate in the second half, and xFIP did a better job predicting his post-break ERA. Still, those fantasy owners who kept him based on his FIP did not end up disappointed.

Dallas Braden – Made just four starts after the break due to a foot infection. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

Paul Maholm – His second half ERA was lower than his first half one, despite more HR allowed. Still, this was a pitcher that FIP would have identified as a potential buy candidate at the break, so a win for xFIP.

Tim Wakefield – Made just four starts in the second half due to leg and back injuries. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to the lack of playing time.

Clayton Kershaw – He had a 5.0 HR/FB rate at the break and was even better in the second half, as he finished the year with a 4.1 mark. His ERA finished two full runs below what xFIP predicted. This was a big win for FIP.

Derek Lowe – Opponents posted an .888 OPS versus Lowe in the second half of the season, including 10 HR in 331 ABs. This was a big win for xFIP.

Cliff Lee – Everyone thinks the move to the NL turned things around for Lee but he was 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in his first three games with Cleveland after the break. His HR/FB rate has been below 11 percent the past five seasons. This was a big win for FIP.

Carlos Zambrano – This was the closest one, as Zambrano’s second half ERA of 4.14 was just barely closer to his first-half FIP than his xFIP. Zambrano pitched worse in the second half than in the first, but it had nothing to do with his HR rate, which declined slightly from the 5.8 he posted in the first half. This was a slight win for FIP.

Jair Jurrjens – Both FIP and xFIP predicted Jurrjens’ ERA to rise in the second half and instead he pitched even better after the break. If you went strictly by FIP at the break, you would have listened to offers for Jurrjens. If you went by xFIP you were in the sell/cut area. This was a win for FIP.

Jeff Niemann – As with Jurrjens, both of our metrics predicted an ERA rise from Niemann in the second half. FIP had him as a sell while xFIP had him as a sell or cut guy. This was a slight win for FIP.

Nick Blackburn – Yet another pitcher that both metrics forecasted a rise in ERA. Except this time, the actual rise was more drastic than even the more pessimistic xFIP predicted. Since you might have kept him if you used FIP, this was a big win for xFIP.

Edwin Jackson – Pretty much the same thing as with Blackburn above, except you were even more likely to keep Jackson if you used FIP. This was a big win for xFIP.

Mike Pelfrey – The spread with our two metrics was not nearly as great with Pelfrey as it was for Blackburn and Jackson, but the end results were the same. This was a big win for xFIP.

Jon Garland – FIP projected Garland to be virtually the same in the second half as he was in the first half while xFIP had him being noticeably worse. The trade to Los Angeles invigorated Garland, or perhaps it was simply leaving a bad home park, as he finished the year with a 5.29 ERA at Chase Field and a 1.67 ERA at Dodger Stadium. This was a win for FIP, but probably not a pitcher anyone was targeting at the break.

Felix Hernandez – Again, both metrics predicted an ERA rise in the second half, although xFIP was more pessimistic, making him a sell high guy with a difference of 94 points. Hernandez pitched even better after the break, making this a big win for FIP.

Justin Verlander – Both metrics predicted an ERA drop in the second half for Verlander, with FIP being the most optimistic. Verlander pitched well, but saw his ERA go up, making this a win for xFIP.

Brian Bannister – A 3.66 ERA in the first half made Bannister look like a useful pitcher. Both metrics saw an ERA increase, but xFIP was the most pessimistic. This was a big win for xFIP.

C.C. Sabathia – Our two metrics were split on how Sabathia would fare in the second half. With a predicted decrease from his first half ERA, this was a big win for FIP.

Brad Penny – Our two metrics were split again. But Penny’s ERA went up in the second half. This was a win for xFIP, but not many people who used FIP were angling to acquire Penny.

Vicente Padilla – His HR/FB rate went up significantly in the second half, yet Padilla produced a lower ERA after the break, thanks to a move to the NL. Neither metric identified Padilla as a pitcher to target, although FIP came very close to hitting his actual mark.

Jarrod Washburn – Both metrics identified Washburn as a sell candidate as his ERA was 92 points lower than his FIP and 150 points lower than his xFIP. Officially a win for xFIP, although you likely would have made the same decision regardless of which metric you used.

Jered Weaver – A win for xFIP, which had him as a sell, while FIP had him as a listen. There are also extra points for xFIP for exactly predicting his second half ERA.

Joe Blanton – The metrics were split on how Blanton would fare in the second half. This was a big win for xFIP, which forecasted him to be a useful pitcher and he ended up better than that.

Bronson Arroyo – Technically a win for xFIP but not many fantasy players were running out to acquire Arroyo based on his 4.99 first half xFIP.

Jamie Moyer – Repeat the comment from Arroyo, except sub in 5.06 xFIP.

Trevor Cahill – Same as the above two, except with a 5.18 FIP.

Chris Volstad – Our two metrics were split on Volstad. FIP saw him continuing to be a sell/cut guy while xFIP saw him being a useful pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA. This was a win for FIP.

Rick Porcello – Both systems predicted a rise in ERA but FIP elevated him to cut status. This was a win for xFIP.

Braden Looper – The two metrics were split on Looper, with xFIP predicting a drop in ERA. Looper actually pitched worse in the second half but neither system would have advocated acquiring him at the break.

Josh Geer – Made just three starts after the break due to lousy pitching. Not one that either system would have suggested to add.

Rich Harden – While most of the players with above average HR/FB rates have been of little or no value in regards to fantasy, Harden is the exception. Both systems saw him improving on his first half ERA but xFIP was much more bullish. And Harden exceeded those expectations. This was a big win for xFIP.

Randy Johnson – Appeared in just four games after the break due to a rotator cuff strain. Officially a win for FIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

*****

If you made your fantasy decisions this year based on xFIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Pineiro, Lowe, Blackburn, Jackson, Pelfrey, Bannister, Blanton, Harden and to a lesser extent Maholm, Verlander, Weaver and Porcello.

If you made your fantasy decisions based this year based on FIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Greinke, Kershaw, Lee, Hernandez, Sabathia and to a lesser extent Jurrjens and Volstad.

From a pure bulk standpoint, you were better off in 2009 using xFIP at the break. But those who relied on FIP were more likely to make the right call on four of the five pitchers with the lowest ERA in the second half among the 34 pitchers in our sample.

We really cannot make any inferences for the future based on this one small sample. What we can say is that judging strictly from results in 2009 it would be a mistake to ignore FIP completely and absolutely while making fantasy decisions at the All-Star break. This year if you used xFIP you would have made the wrong decisions on some of the best pitchers in the game.

Here is the latest update to Week 14 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

ANA – Lackey
TB – Shields
WSX – Buehrle
CUB – Dempster
ARZ – D. Davis
SEA – Bedard
OAK – Braden
TEX – Padilla
STL – Wellemeyer
OAK – B. Anderson
TOR – Mills

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TB – Garza
LAD – Kuroda
WSX – Contreras
SEA – Vargas
OAK – G. Gonzalez
TEX – Holland

Lackey has a career high .337 BABIP and a career low 69 percent strand rate. But he has gone seven or more innings in seven of his last eight starts and has two home starts this week.

Shields also gets two home starts this week. He has 4 W and a 3.18 ERA at Tropicana Field this year. He has very similar rate stats to a year ago but in 2008 he averaged 4.92 runs per game and went 14-8. This year he receives 4.11 runs per game and his record is 6-6.

Buehrle has a .260 BABIP and a 78.4 percent strand rate. That’s led to a 4.09 FIP compared to a 3.09 ERA and an overall record of 8-2 despite HR, SO and BB rates the same or worse as last year’s 15-12, 3.79 ERA season.

Dempster has been unable to repeat the magic from his 2008 season. He is still performing at better than his career averages in most metrics but the 32-year old is a .500 pitcher. His fastball, which was such a good pitch for him last year, checks in at -10.4 according to Pitch Type Values.

Davis gets two home starts which is normally a good thing. But the big lefty is just 1-5 in Chase Field this year, where he has allowed eight of his 11 home runs.

Bedard is slated to return on Tuesday after missing a month with a sore shoulder. He threw a simulated game on Friday and Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu was impressed with the results of the 54-pitch outing.

Braden has gone at least five innings in each of his 17 games this season. He changes speeds, keeps the ball in the park (0.59 HR/9) and does not hurt himself with walks (2.37 BB/9). Braden’s best pitch is his changeup, which has an average speed over 15 mph slower than his fastball and one that checks in with a 7.8 Pitch Type Value.

Padilla is throwing as hard as ever but has the worst strikeout rate of his career. He has a career average of 6.15 SO/9 and last season posted a 6.68 rate. But in 2009 it is down to a 4.86 mark.

Wellemeyer has a .336 BABIP and it is lefty batters doing most of the damage. LHB have a .342/.417/.595 mark against him this year. Batting against Wellemeyer turns the average lefty batter into Prince Fielder. But oddly enough, Fielder has a .200/.333/.200 line against Wellemeyer this season in six at-bats.

Anderson averages 91.8 mph with his fastball but his slider is his best pitch. Anderson throws his slider 31 percent of the time, which would be the sixth-highest figure in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify.

Mills has had good strikeout numbers throughout the minors and in his brief major league career. But he is hardly overpowering, instead he features a changeup as his strikeout pitch. Mills allowed a 43.5 percent fly ball rate at Dunedin last year and it was 48.3 percent when he was promoted to New Hampshire. This year in his brief tenure with Toronto, he has a 74.1 percent fly ball rate.

The Oakland Athletics’ rotation is in between phases. The vaunted “Big Three” of Hudson, Zito and Mulder has long since become a relic of the past, and the latest touted trio of Haren, Harden and Blanton was converted into copious amounts of young, cost-controlled talent. A new wave of high-ceiling arms, led by the one-two punch of Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, will soon dominate the headlines.

Until then, the A’s will hope to receive yeoman’s work from second-tier hurlers such as Sean Gallagher, Dana Eveland and Gio Gonzalez. There’s another name penciled into the rotation who could provide quality work despite a lack of press clippings: Dallas Braden.

The southpaw stayed on the draft board until the 24th round back in 2004, considered nothing more than an organizational filler. Scouts questioned how his wacky repertoire would play in pro ball- Braden was known for a screwball-like pitch that gave hitters fits, but the offering was supported only by high-80’s heat, a flat slider and an average changeup.

Undeterred by a lack of scouting love, Braden tore up less advanced batters between Vancouver (Northwest League) and Kane County (A-Ball) in 2004. In 42 IP, he posted a 63/9 K/BB ratio while surrendering 37 hits. That small sample was not enough to change opinions, though, as Braden went into the 2005 season outside of Baseball America’s top 30 Oakland prospects.

Braden received more of a challenge in ’05, as he was deployed to the High-A California League (where pitching prospects go to die). He continued to whiff opposing hitters like some Randy Johnson doppelganger, with 64 K’s in and 11 walks in 43.2 frames (2.68 ERA). Bumped to the Texas League for the second half, the screwballer did not dominate, but held his own with a 3.90 ERA in 97 frames. Braden posted rates of 6.6 K/9 and 2.96 BB/9.

The Texas Tech alum put his name on the prospect map, coming in at number 19 in BA’s Oakland rankings. Said BA: “he gets hitters out with guile, command and a trick pitch.” Things weren’t all sunshine and rainbows, however, as Braden was shut down in August with a tired arm.

That “tired arm” would turn out to be more nefarious, as Braden went under the knife for shoulder surgery during the offseason. After making so much progress and fighting his perceived limitations in ’05, the lefty suffered what was essentially a lost season. He tossed only 37 innings between rookie ball, High-A and Double-A, posting a 55/8 K/BB ratio. Already something of a red-headed stepchild in the scouting community, Braden fell off of the prospect radar yet again.

Beginning the ’07 campaign back at AA Midland, Braden quickly earned a promotion to Sacramento after posting a 13/3 K/BB ratio in 12 IP to start the year. With the River Cats (a dynastic AAA affiliate, if such an entity exists), Braden fooled 10.41 batters per nine innings with 2.53 BB/9. His FIP was a sparkling 2.64 in 64 frames.

The 6-1, 195 pounder also saw time with the A’s, at times filling in for the vastly talented but notoriously brittle Rich Harden in the rotation. Braden’s ERA (6.72) in 20 appearances (14 starts) made him look like the AL’s answer to John Van Benschoten, but the underlying results weren’t that bad. He posted a 4.50 FIP in 72.1 IP with 6.84 K/9 and 3.24 BB/9, but Braden was felled by a .355 BABIP and a 56.4% strand rate.

Back with Sacramento in 2008, Braden turned in ace-like numbers despite a “soft, softer, softest” arsenal of pitches. With 9.11 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9, he compiled a 3.50 FIP in 53.1 IP (HR were a slight problem, with 1.18 per nine). Braden was called up to Oakland on several occasions, making 19 appearances (10 starts) in total. Featuring 88 MPH cheese, a 78 MPH slider, a mid-70’s change and perhaps an occasional screwball, Braden managed a 4.57 FIP in 71.2 innings (5.15 K/9, 3.14 BB/9).

As a soft-tosser with flyball tendencies (career 37.7 GB%), Braden has little star potential. However, he’s in the right venue for a hurler who puts the ball in the air frequently (The Coliseum has depressed HR production by 13% over the past three years, according to the Bill James Handbook) and he’ll be in the rotation from the outset in 2009. CHONE forecasts a 4.24 FIP for Braden, with 6.79 K/9 and 3 BB/9. Most A’s fans and prospect mavens are anxiously awaiting the debuts of Cahill and Anderson, and deservedly so. But this former Red Raider is worth a look as he holds down the fort in the meantime.