Archive for Daisuke Matsuzaka

This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.

Closer/Setup Men:

Fishing for a closer?

Draft Jenrry Mejia and you may feel like doing this:

Jenrry Mejia. So pumped. pic.twitter.com/iy8HR5yrZu

— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) July 26, 2014

Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 3.

Brandon Beachy – With 17 Ks in 17.1 IP, you could make a case for starting Beachy on strikeouts alone. Unfortunately, the other categories come into play. Beachy has yet to break into the win column and his ERA and WHIP took it on the chin Thursday night against the Marlins. This week Beachy has two tough road matchups against Kuroda and Lincecum and all signs point to leaving him on the bench this week.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – The good news is that Matsuzaka’s xFIP is half of what his ERA is. The bad news is he has a 6.56 xFIP. This week he gets to face the slugging Blue Jays and then a cross country road trip to take on the Angels. It may be worthwhile to hang onto him for a few more starts to see if he can put it back together, but by all means let him figure things out while he sits on your bench.

Carl Pavano – After getting rocked in his first start, Pavano has put up back-to-back strong outings, allowing just 1 ER and 8 H over 16 IP. He surrendered three gopher balls in his first game but has kept the ball in the park since then. Pavano’s peripherals are worse than his ERA, due mainly to that first outing. A 17-game winner last year, make sure he is in your lineup this week

Jason Vargas – Last year Vargas shocked everyone by winning nine games and putting up a sub-4.00 ERA. Seven of his nine wins came at home, where his ERA was a full two runs lower than his road mark. Vargas got knocked around in his first home start this year, but last time out in Safeco he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 IP. He has two home starts this week and as he’s likely on the waiver wire in your league, he makes an excellent streaming option.

Carlos Zambrano – Another pitcher with two home starts is Zambrano. But unlike Vargas, Zambrano has not shown an extreme preference for pitching in his home park. In fact, Zambrano has a much higher road winning percentage in his career (.676 vs .544). But the reason to start Zambrano this week is his opponents. He faces off against the Padres and Dodgers, two of the weaker offensive teams in the National League. While Zambrano has not pitched particularly well this year, the Cubs offense has provided him with lots of support, as he has two wins despite a 6.11 ERA.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 3 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Johnson, Lincecum, Marcum, Price, T. Hudson, Danks, B. Anderson, Romero, E. Jackson, Liriano, Scherzer, Kuroda, E. Santana, Shields, Lilly, Lewis, T. Wood, Pavano, Lackey, Carmona, Niese, Stauffer, Correia, Jimenez, Tillman, Chen, Fister, Lannan, Arrieta, LeCure, Galarraga, Moseley, Davies, Palmer.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 38 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics.

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Felipe Paulino – pitched in just 5.2 innings after the break. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to a lack of playing time.

Francisco Liriano – His second half ERA was better than his first half mark, but both metrics thought he was outstanding before the All-Star break. This is a clear win for xFIP.

Anibal Sanchez – His 2nd half ERA (3.44) was a near-perfect match for his first half FIP (3.46).

Clay Buchholz – Both systems thought Buchholz was not nearly as good as he was in the first half. FIP had his as a keep while xFIP said he was an active sell. Since Buchholz did even better in the second half of the season than the first, this was a clear victory for FIP.

Josh Johnson – Both systems had Johnson as a keeper, but xFIP did a better job predicting his 3.50 post All-Star break mark.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – After allowing 4 HR in 71 IP in the first half, Matsuzaka served up 9 HR in 82.2 IP after the break. Big win for xFIP.

Johan Santana – His 3.00 ERA in the second half almost identical to his first half mark of 2.98. xFIP had Santana as a cut, so an easy win for FIP.

Jason Vargas – Eight of his 14 starts after the break came on the road and he allowed eight of his 10 second half HR away from Safeco. Big win for xFIP.

Justin Verlander – In the last three years, Verlander has posted an ERA over 5.50 in the month of April. He was terrific from May 1st through the end of the season again in 2010. Easy win for FIP.

Barry Zito – A lousy second half of the season made Zito a spectator for the Giants in the post-season. xFIP did an outstanding job predicting Zito’s collapse.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Just like with Zito, xFIP was just about perfect predicting Jimenez in the second half.

Tom Gorzelanny – Both systems saw Gorzelanny as a pretty good pitcher, but xFIP came closer to his second-half collapse.

John Danks – Again, the crystal ball for xFIP was right on target for Danks.

Tommy Hanson – In both seasons in the majors, Hanson has outperformed his xFIP. He turned it up a notch in the second half of 2010, thanks as much to his .233 BABIP as his 7 HR in 100.1 IP.

Matt Cain – Another pitcher with a history of outperforming his peripherals, Cain beat his FIP by nearly a run and his xFIP by nearly two runs in the second half of 2010.

Clayton Kershaw – Just as good in the second half of the season as he was in the first.

Cliff Lee – Many people wanted to eliminate Lee from this study last year, as he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. But Lee outpitched his xFIP after the break in 2009. No such luck for Lee this year while following a similar story line of moving to a tougher park for pitchers.

C.J. Wilson – Like Kershaw, he was remarkable consistent between halves and ended up as a win for FIP.

Livan Hernandez – Those of us who kept predicting the bottom to fall out for Hernandez in 2010 are still waiting. Meanwhile, his second half ERA of 4.02 was a perfect match for his first half FIP.

Doug Fister – I imagine even the staunchest FIP supporters were shopping Fister every chance they could.

Fausto Carmona – After back-to-back seasons with a BB/9 over 5.00, Carmona allowed just 29 BB in 94.0 IP after the break last year. That had more to do with it than HR rate (10 HR in 94 IP) for why FIP was a clear winner.

Gavin Floyd – Fantasy owners did not know start from start what to expect from Floyd, but xFIP did a nice job of predicting his second half ERA.

Mark Buehrle – Like Wilson and Kershaw, Buehrle was a model of consistency with his ERA between halves this year. However, I worry about his K/9 rate and would be shocked if he was on any of my teams next year.

Brandon Morrow – With the Blue Jays out of the race, they decided to shut down a healthy Morrow after his first September start, which limited him to 46.1 IP after the break. A polar opposite to Buehrle, Morrow posted a 10.95 K/9, up from 8.14 a season ago.

Johnny Cueto – Cueto’s second half ERA was in the range predicted by his first half FIP and xFIP. But it was just 0.05 away from his FIP.

John Lackey – His second half ERA of 3.97 was a nice match for his 3.89 career mark but I doubt that makes too many Red Sox fans happy about his season and the team’s remaining obligation to him.

Kevin Correia – The first player on our list to have a big discrepancy between his FIP and xFIP due to a high HR rate, Correia did not show much regression in the second half of the year. Those who thought he would rebound, especially considering his home park, were disappointed. Correia allowed 13 HR in 82.1 IP in Petco this year.

Cole Hamels – Just like in 2009, one pitcher from the high HR rate side completely turned things around to become one of the best pitchers in the second half. Hopefully, Hamels has more luck in 2011 than 2009’s entry did. Rich Harden had a 5.58 ERA in 20 games with the Rangers this year after having a tremendous post-break performance (2.55 ERA) in 2009.

Nick Blackburn – Both systems would have advised cutting Blackburn, who responded with a 3.94 ERA in the second half, as he showed a big across-the-board improvement, including a microscopic 1.83 BB/9.

Kevin Millwood – Most of the players with a high HR/FB rate come back as not worth the risk by both systems. But xFIP said Millwood was significantly better than he showed in the first half and did an excellent job projecting his post-break ERA.

Jeff Karstens – An sore shoulder led to just one appearance in September. I regret the pain suffered by Mr. Karstens but it’s probably just as well that it played out that way.

Zach Duke – Hard to believe he made the All-Star team in 2009. Since then he is 11-23 with a 5.52 ERA.

James Shields – Both systems predicted a big bounce-back performance in the second half by Shields but that never materialized. He continued to give up HR by the basket, saw his K/BB ratio drop by over a full point and saw his BABIP increase to .362 after the break.

Brian Bannister – Limited to 25.2 IP in the second half due to rotator cuff tendinitis.

Randy Wolf – Both systems saw Wolf as waiver wire fodder but he had a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts, which was right after I placed him on waivers in a dynasty league.

Doug Davis – Elbow tendinitis kept Davis from pitching after the All-Star break.

Ricky Nolasco – FIP was nearly perfect with its Nolasco forecast, a marked departure in recent history, as he has generally underperformed his peripherals the past two seasons. Of course, Nolasco pitched just 47 innings after the break due to knee surgery.

Ian Kennedy – Neither system thought much of Kennedy going into the break but xFIP had a brighter outlook. Meanwhile, Kennedy put it altogether after the All-Star game, with Quality Starts in seven of his last nine outings. He finally started pitching well in his home park. In his last three games in Chase Field, Kennedy allowed 4 ER (0 HR) in 19 IP.

*****

When I started this comparison in 2009, my belief was that you would be just as well off using either system. After last year, there was a definite raw advantage for xFIP but now with two years worth of data, the two systems are basically even. Overall, there have been 72 pitchers who’ve had a 0.50 or greater difference between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break. Here’s how they did if you used their first half FIP or xFIP to project their second half ERA:

xFIP – 37
FIP – 34
Push – 1

Both systems have strengths and weaknesses. Generally speaking, xFIP does a better job with non-elite pitchers with low HR rates while FIP does a better job with elite hurlers. So, if a Tom Gorzelanny is cruising along with a sub-7.0 HR/FB rate, it appears you should look to sell high. But if it’s Justin Verlander, perhaps you should hold onto him.

We know that over the long haul that xFIP is the better metric to use for most pitchers. The issue here is that for one season (or one partial season) there may not be enough time for regression to fully kick in. Let’s look at Tim Lincecum. In the first half of 2009, he had a 3.9 HR/FB rate. In the second half of the season he had a 7.5 HR/9. This year he had a 9.9 HR/FB ratio. He has been regressing towards a normal HR/FB rate since the first half of 2009. But it did not all come in the same season.

Readers have suggested using first half ERA, or a mid-point between first half FIP and xFIP or an average of all three to see which one best predicted second half ERA. I think these are worthwhile suggestions and perhaps ones that we can use in the future (going back retroactively, too) as our sample size increases. We can also eliminate pitchers who did not pitch substantial innings and look for other trends and anomalies as our population gets bigger.

This started with a claim by my friend and colleague Derek Carty that FIP was basically useless for fantasy purposes with other metrics like xFIP available. Right now it appears FIP is making a case not to be tossed into the trash can by fantasy players.

In 2009, I did a column at the All-Star break to see if FIP or xFIP would be more helpful for fantasy players in making trades. This year I did the same thing. You can see the results below

Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP?
FIP Challenge Results Part I
FIP Challenge Results Part II
FIP Challenge 2010

Here is the table from the 2010 article, along with an additional column, the pitcher’s ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 38 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the two systems were almost identical, with the FIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA in 20 cases while xFIP did better 17 times. Furthermore, FIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 26 players with low HR/FB rates and both systems got five of the 11 pitchers (Davis being a wash) with high HR/FB rates.

In 2009, xFIP did better on a raw scale, as it did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers in the sample.

Similar to 2009, most of the pitchers fell outside the range predicted by FIP and xFIP. For example, Liriano’s FIP was 2.18 while his xFIP was 2.97. But he had a 3.31 second half ERA. Only seven of the 37 players listed above had a second half ERA between their first half FIP and xFIP. The two systems were close on this, too, with FIP being better on four of these seven pitchers. In 2009, 28 of the 34 pitchers had second half ERAs outside the range of their first half FIP and xFIP numbers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 38 pitchers in this survey.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 10.

Johnny Cueto – He cleaned up in May (4-0, 3.00 ERA, 29 Ks in 33 IP) but struggled in his first June start. Overall, his FIP and xFIP are right in line with his 4.09 ERA. Cueto has been above average in both Ks and WHIP and should be in everyone’s starting lineup with his two home games this week. He gets the Giants and Royals, two teams below average in runs scored, at the Great American Ball Park, where Cueto has a 3.19 ERA this season.

Edwin Jackson – In three of his last four starts, Jackson has hurled a Quality Start. But each of those QS were on the road and Jackson has two home starts this week. In Chase Field, he has a 5.44 ERA and has been prone to the gopher ball, having allowed eight of his 10 HR at home. While Atlanta is not a big HR team, St. Louis is above average and the Cardinals have done most of their damage on the road, where they have hit 32 of their 50 HR this season. The Cardinals game has potential for disaster, so leave Jackson inactive if you have other options.

Colby Lewis – After posting a 2.76 ERA in April, Lewis fell to a 4.11 mark in May and allowed 4 ER in 6.1 IP in his first June outing. Lewis’ success is due to his slider but he faces the Mariners, whose sparkplugs Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins both do well against the pitch, and the Brewers, who have two of the best slider hitters in Casey McGehee and Prince Fielder. The combination of struggling pitcher and bad matchups make Lewis a player to stash on your bench this week.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – This season has been a struggle for Matsuzaka because he puts too many runners on base and has been unlucky with his strand rate. He did not allow a walk in his last outing, a game where he notched 7 Ks and picked up the win. Matsuzaka squares off against the Indians and Phillies, two teams that are essentially league-average in walks. With the Red Sox having scored 72 runs in their last 12 games, if Matsuzaka can keep from walking the ball park he has a good shot to pick up Wins this week.

Kevin Slowey – With his last two outings, Slowey broke a streak of six consecutive starts where he failed to complete six innings. He combined for 13.2 IP in his last two games and allowed just 2 ER and 2 BB. Slowey gets two home starts this week. He has a good ERA at Target Field (3.79) despite trouble with the gopher ball. Slowey has allowed six of his eight HR at home. But both the Royals and the Braves are below average in hitting HR, so make sure Slowey gets the start this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 10 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Weaver, F. Hernandez, Carpenter, Lee, Gallardo, Cain, Hughes, Hamels, Haren, Pelfrey, Niemann, Marcum, Zito, Lilly, Lowe, Kazmir, Sheets, B. Anderson, Richard, Carmona, Wells, Floyd, W. Rodriguez, Francis, Medlen, Feldman, Galarraga, Volstad, LeBlanc, Hammel, Kendrick, Davies, Wakefield, Bergesen, Monasterios, Eveland, Huff, LeCure.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Eight pitchers and how they fared.

Baker – Advised to sit. W, 6 Ks, 2.45 ERA, 1.364 WHIP (2 starts)
Buchholz – Advised to start. 2 W, 12 Ks, 0.69 ERA, 1.154 WHIP (2)
Harang – Advised to start. 2 W, 7 Ks, 3.38 ERA, 1.200 WHIP (2)
L. Hernandez – Advised to sit. 8Ks, 4.77 ERA, 1.412 WHIP (2)
Leake – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 0.68 ERA, 1.575 WHIP (2)

Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals

During the first three full years of his major league career, Zimmerman combined fantastic D with an above-average bat — his wRC+ from 2006-2008 was 110. Since then, the fourth pick in the 2005 draft has kept the slick leather and improved his lumber. He posted a 132 wRC+ in 2009 and holds a 160 wRC+ in 2010.

Zimmerman’s power production has soared, with his Isolated Power figures going from the high 100’s to .233 in ’09 and .295 this season. ISO tends to become reliable around 550 plate appearances, and Zimmerman has been hitting for elite pop for nearly 900 PAs now. His rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .289/.361/.522 triple-slash, with a .233 ISO. Remember Scott Rolen’s peak? Zimmerman, 25, is now that type of player.

Phil Hughes, Yankees

Though he has seemingly been a topic of conversation for years, Hughes turns just 24 this month. And he has been great as a starter — in 56.2 frames, he has 9.05 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.63 xFIP. The 6-5, 240 pound right-hander is doing a great job of getting ahead in the count, with a 67 first pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average), and he’s getting batters to chase out of the zone 34.8% (27.8% MLB average). That’s the sixth-highest chase rate among MLB starters tossing at least 40 innings.

How is Hughes getting the job done? With 92-93 MPH fastballs and high-80’s cutters that hitters can’t seem to lay off. The 2004 first-rounder has gone to his fastball about 52 percent, getting a strike 70.2 percent of the time (64.4% MLB average) and getting a whiff 9.3% (6% MLB average). Batters have offered at the four-seamer 51.9 percent (45.2% MLB average).

The cutter, used about 27 percent of the time, has been thrown for a strike 75.1% (66.7% MLB average). It’s getting whiffs 10.4% (8.4% MLB average) and has been swung at 63.1% (50% MLB average). Hughes’ curve isn’t faring as well, with below-average strike, whiff and swing rates, but the fastball and cutter have made him death on righties (2.88 xFIP) and acceptable against lefties (4.40 xFIP).

If Hughes is still available in your league, well, what are you waiting for? ZiPS projects 8.51 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.68 FIP from here on out. The Yankees are going to be cautious with his workload, but he’ll continue to deal when he’s on the mound.

Ryan Doumit, Pirates

The 29-year-old switch-hitter has a Tolstoy-length injury history — a torn hamstring in 2006, a concussion as well as a wrist and ankle sprain in 2007, a fractured thumb in 2008 and a wrist injury that required surgery in 2009 — but when he’s not hurting, he’s mashing.

After posting a 126 wRC+ during a (moderately) healthy 2008, Doumit’s production dipped considerably in 2009 (85 wRC+). Some of that was poor luck on balls put in play, but he hacked at a career-high 33.2% of pitches thrown outside of the zone.

In 2010, Doumit has chased 24.2% of off-the-plate pitches, and he’s drawing walks at a career-best 10.3% clip. His first pitch strike percentage is just 44.6 — that’s lowest among MLB batters with at least 100 trips to the plate. Doumit has a 127 wRC+ in 175 PA, with a .281/.371/.451 line. ZiPS projects a .277/.339/.458 showing for the rest of 2010, which is plenty useful for a backstop. But if Doumit continues to work the count well, his value gets a boost.

Of course, all of this is assuming he doesn’t hit the DL tomorrow.

Akinori Iwamura, Pirates

Picked up from Tampa Bay over the off-season for RHP Jesse Chavez (who was subsequently sent to Atlanta for Rafael Soriano), Iwamura has effectively lost the starting gig at the keystone spot for Pittsburgh to Neil Walker.

CHONE (108 wRC+) and ZiPS (107 wRC+) both forecast Iwamura for a solid offensive season, getting on base at a characteristically high rate while displaying little pop. Instead, Aki has a 49 wRC+ in 181 PA. He’s drawing a walk 12.1% of the time, but an incredibly low BABIP has made him one of the worst players in the majors to date.

During his major league career, Iwamura has a .330 BABIP. CHONE projected a .343 pre-season BABIP, and ZiPS .345. Aki’s 2010 BABIP? .198. He has had fewer batted balls classified as line drives (13.3%, compared to a 19.4% career average), and his ground ball rate has spiked to 58.6% (47.3% career average). That helps explain why his ISO is .076, below his pre-season projections of .109 from CHONE and .114 from ZiPS, as well as his career .108 mark.

Those aren’t promising developments, but Iwamura probably hasn’t totally lost it — his rest-of-season ZiPS projection is .262/.337/.369, with a .319 wOBA. Even so, the Pirates’ decision to give Walker (profiled here) a shot is defensible. The 24-year-old has a .262/.307/.449 rest-of-season ZiPS. It remains to be seen how he’ll handle second base, and he’s no top prospect these days. But Walker could be part of the next relevant Pirates team, while Iwamura won’t be.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox

Since returning from a neck/back strain, Matsuzaka has been a pain in the neck to Sox fans and fantasy owners alike. Dice-K has 6.55 K/9, 5.5 BB/9 and a 5.49 xFIP in 34.1 innings pitched. He has put 46.4% of his pitches within the zone (47.5% MLB average), and he’s getting first pitch strikes just 52.4%. Matsuzaka also isn’t missing bats — his swinging strike rate is 6.4%, compared to the 8-8.5% MLB average and his career 9.7% average.

During his first two seasons state-side, Dice-K was basically a league-average starter (4.31 xFIP in 2007, 4.70 in 2008). He was control-challenged, but at least compensated with good K rates. Last year’s shoulder ailment and 4.83 xFIP, coupled with more injury concerns and lousy pitching this season, make him hard to recommend. The upside here would appear to be a 4.25-4.50 ERA. Is that worth all the aggravation?

Gordon Beckham, White Sox

Beckham went from Athens to the South Side in short order, putting up a .270/.347/.460 triple-slash and a 112 wRC+ in 2009. CHONE (115 wRC+) and ZiPS (111 wRC+) predicted more of the same for the 23-year-old, and Beckham’s value received an extra boost fantasy-wise with his shifting from third to second base.

Flash forward two months into the 2010 season, and Beckham is owned in just 42% of Yahoo leagues. He has a ghastly .196/.286/.239 line in 187 PA, with a 45 wRC+.

It would be rash to sell low on Beckham in keeper leagues, as he remains a valuable long-term talent, but he looks lost at the plate at the moment. After swinging at 24.8% of out-of-zone pitches during his rookie year, Gordon has gone fishing 30.6% this season. His groundball rate is up 10 percentage points (40.4% to 50.4%), and his pop up rate has increased — 14%, compared to 11.9% last year and the 7-8% big league average. Beckham’s .043 ISO puts him in the illustrious company of Jason Kendall and teammate Juan Pierre.

He’s not going to keep a .238 BABIP, but Beckham is surely testing the patience of owners who have stuck with him through his struggles.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Seven.

John Ely – After an impressive performance against the Brewers where he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 IP and had 0 BB and 7 Ks, the Dodgers opted to send Ely to the minors. But the gods intervened and Ely returned after Los Angeles placed Charlie Haeger on the disabled list. Ely then went out and hurled a Quality Start in Arizona to pick up his first win in the majors. He throws four pitches and while his fastball is below-average in velocity, it is a plus pitch in results, as are his slider, change and curve. Ely has 17 Ks and 3 BB in 18.2 IP in the majors this year. He is available on the waiver wire in most leagues and will make an excellent pickup for his two home starts against the Astros and the Tigers.

Hiroki Kuroda – After starting with two very solid seasons in the majors, Kuroda has been even better this year. His GB% is up to 58.6 and his K/9 has increased to 7.04. Kuroda’s O-Swing% is 34.9 and his Contact% is 78.8 percent. And he has won four of his five decisions. It is hard to imagine what else owners want to see from Kuroda before they make him a must-start, but he rides the pine in 37 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Get him into your lineup especially as he goes against two pitchers with ERAs above 5.00 for the year.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Generally I am bullish on Matsuzaka for the remainder of the 2010 season but I think he should be on the bench this week. The positives are that he has a 2.67 K/BB ratio and a 32.7 O-Swing%, both career-bests. The big negative is that he has a 0.76 GB/FB ratio and is susceptible to the gopher ball. This week he has road starts in Yankee Stadium and Citizens Bank Park, two of the best HR parks in baseball. Do not be discouraged if he has a rough time this week, just be sure he does it on your bench.

Carl Pavano – Benjamin Franklin said that it takes many good deeds to build a reputation and only one bad one to lose it. Pavano lost any good reputation he may have built in his four injury-plagued years with the Yankees. Even after a 14-win season last year, fantasy owners are lukewarm at best towards Pavano. Last Player Picked has his work so far this season as worth $11 in a 12-team mixed league, good for a solid #3 SP. Yet Pavano is owned in less than half of ESPN leagues. It is not an easy week for him, but Pavano deserves to start in all formats.

Mike Pelfrey – After starting the season with four wins and a save in his first five appearances, Pelfrey has struggled in his last three games. In 17 IP, he has a 6.88 ERA and a 1.588 WHIP. Pelfrey has a tough week, with a game in Atlanta and then an Interleague matchup with the Yankees. Pelfrey is 3-5 lifetime against the Braves with a 5.58 ERA and he has a 5.40 ERA against the Yankees in two career appearances. Leave him inactive for this week if you can.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Seven are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Carpenter, J. Johnson, Halladay, F. Hernandez, Greinke, J. Santana, Gallardo, Cain, Weaver, Price, Hughes, Danks, C. Wilson, J. Sanchez, Niemann, Slowey, Vazquez, Beckett, Marcum, Kazmir, Cueto, Carmona, Lowe, Sheets, W. Rodriguez, Wells, Chacin, Latos, G. Gonzalez, Porcello, E. Jackson, Holland, Millwood, Silva, Volstad, Richard, Bailey, Cook, Bonderman, Lohse, Eveland, Duke, Kendrick, Davies, Bergesen, Norris, Bush, Medlen, F. Garcia, Huff, Lannan, Rowland-Smith, Morton, Stammen, C. Valdez.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Five pitchers and how they fared.

Cecil – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 0.975 WHIP (2 starts)
Correia – Advised to sit. 4 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.000 WHIP (1)
Floyd – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 7.82 ERA, 1.737 WHIP (2)
Garcia – Advised to sit. W, 13 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 1.333 WHIP (2)
Scherzer – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 14.46 ERA, 2.571 WHIP (2)

This is the first part of a series that will check up on injured players and recent injuries during spring training.

– Brandon Webb is working his way back from shoulder issues, and threw 43 pitches in a bullpen session on Sunday. He also threw 45 pitches in a previous bullpen session on Thursday. The D’Backs are trying to get him ready for some in-game appearances by mid-March, but that may be far too optimistic. Arizona has a shot to be good this year, and if they are smart they will baby him along and attempt to get 25-28 starts out of Webb this year. All looks well with Webb, but that’s what we thought going into last year, and continued to think that at times during the rehab process. If he looks healthy, take a shot at Webb.

– Brandon Inge is still going through the rehab process after undergoing surgery on both knees this offseason. Inge thinks he’ll be ready to start the year, but some Tigers officials aren’t as optimistic. Inge is “bored”, and that is leading him to try to come back from his injury quicker, which is not the best thing for him. During the first half of ’09, Inge was a stud, and it’s unclear if his second half was due to regression, injuries, or a combination of both. Now, with bad knees and lost catcher eligibility, he’s no longer draftable.

– After missing a vast majority of 2009, Daisuke Matsuzaka is continuing to work his way back for the 2010 season. He threw off a mound, although the catcher was standing, and also participated in some long toss. The Red Sox are willing to admit that Dice-K won’t be ready for opening day, but it looks like they hope he will be ready to go sometime in the first month of the season. The Red Sox may choose to go with a four-man rotation until Dice-K gets back on the mound, but they could also place Tim Wakefield in the starting rotation. Wakefield is always a strange fantasy pickup, but he could be a nice waiver wire guy for wins.

More injury notes:

• Jose Reyes tripled in an intersquad game yesterday. Hard to gauge a speed guy with a leg injury, but Reyes could be fantastic value in the late second round.
• Jesus Flores admitted that he won’t be ready for opening day. He has shown some promise in the past, but his shoulder problems combined with the arrival of Pudge will kill his value.
• After an early scare, Jair Jurrjens’ shoulder seems to be doing better. He is throwing from long distances and hopes to get on the mound next week. Until I see him on the mound, I’m skeptical.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Boston Red Sox club that finished second overall in the American League East division with a record of 95-67. The organization claimed the Wild Card title but was eliminated in the American League Division Series. As a team, the Red Sox posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of 4.01, seventh overall in the Majors and third in the AL.

The Good: Jon Lester, LHP
A lot of people felt that Lester peaked in his first full season in the Majors in 2008. A lot of people were wrong. The lefty, at the age of 25, became one of the top hurlers in baseball. He allowed 186 hits in 203.1 innings while striking out 225 batters (9.96 K/9). Lester also posted a nice walk rate at 2.83 BB/9. His fastball velocity increased 1.5 mph over 2008 but it took a step back value wise from 0.82 to 0.25 wFB/C. However, each one of his secondary pitches (cutter, curve, change) improved. Lester was worth 6.2 wins above replacement in 2009, up from 5.1 in 2008.

What’s important for fantasy owners to acknowledge is that he’s proven to be durable – especially considering that he’s coming back from cancer. All his statistics also point to a legitimate improvement in numerous areas, which limits the likelihood of a fluke season. Lester finished fifth in the Majors in strikeouts and he plays on a club that will give him plenty of opportunities to be awarded wins.

The Bad: Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP
Matsuzaka looked like a stud after his first MLB campaign in 2007; He then won 18 games with just three losses and he posted a strikeout rate of 8.27 K/9 in his sophomore year. There were some red flags, though, such as the walk rate of 5.05 BB/9 and the significant ERA/FIP gap. Even so, Matsuzaka was worth 3.3 wins above replacement in ’08 and fans expected more in ’09. No one expected him to be worth just half a win above replacement, and no one expected Matsuzaka to make just 12 starts. Unfortunately, he was also extremely homer prone (1.52 HR/9), he allowed a lot of line drives (23%) and all of his pitches decreased in effectiveness.

Matsuzaka will enter the 2010 season with a wait-and-see label. The wild-card has a chance to be a dominating pitcher again if he can harness the command of his fastball and slider. His health will also play a huge part in his potential success. At just 29 years of age, Matsuzaka has the potential to provide innings, strikeouts and wins. You will have to accept a certain number of walks and homers, though.

Here is the latest update to Week 24 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

ANA – Lackey
COL – Jimenez
TEX – Feldman
NYY – Chamberlain
SD – Correia
BOS – Matsuzaka
WSX – Garcia
KAN – Tejada

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

TAM – Niemann
STL – Smoltz
PIT – Duke
TEX – McCarthy
NYY – Gaudin
BOS – Byrd
NYM – Parnell
WSX – Torres
SD – LeBlanc
KAN – Chen

Lackey has gone 2-0 with a 0.35 ERA in his last three games. In that span he has 3 BB, 17 SO and 0 HR in 26 IP. He has road starts at Boston and at Texas. Lifetime, Lackey has ERAs above 6.00 in both places. In 15 games in Arlington his ERA is 6.12 while it is 6.34 in eight starts in Fenway.

Jimenez has a tweaked groin, which pushed back his scheduled start last Saturday to Monday. Prior to the injury, Jimenez has been on fire. In his last 11 games, all Quality Starts, he is 9-2 with a 2.60 ERA.

Feldman has won seven consecutive decisions. He is 16-4 overall and leads the American League in W. Feldman has two home starts this week, but he has been a better pitcher this year on the road. He is 4-3 with a 4.56 ERA at home, nearly two runs higher than his road ERA.

Chamberlain was cruising along with an 8-2 record before the latest version of the “Joba Rules” were unfurled. In his last six games, Chamberlain is 0-3 with a 7.88 ERA. He has pitched exactly three innings in each of his last three starts, which kills his chances to pick up any more wins.

Correia has won three of his last four decisions. In his last nine games, he is 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA with 3 HR allowed in 56.1 IP. Correia has a game both at home and on the road this week. In Petco Park, Correia has a .256 BABIP and a 3.68 ERA. On the road those numbers are .357 and 5.09, respectively.

Matsuzaka, who has been out since June 19th with a strained shoulder, is slated to be activated and start Tuesday. When healthy and active in the majors this season, Matsuzaka found things a lot tougher than he had in 2008. But few people expected him to repeat his 80.6 percent strand rate from last season.

Garcia was knocked around in his first start this season but has hurled Quality Starts in four straight outings since then, including two against the Red Sox and one against the Yankees. This week brings a road start in Seattle and a home game against the Royals.

Tejada has moved into the rotation for his last two games and has not allowed a run in 11.1 IP. He also has 14 strikeouts in that span. Tejada still has issues with command (5.74 BB/9) but a double-digit SO/9 rate will always get a fantasy player’s attention.