Archive for Daily Fantasy Strategy

It’s hard to put into words how excited I am was (note below) for tonight’s Cleveland-Kansas City match-up. In case you didn’t know, Corey Kluber and Yordano Ventura (thank you, Based God, for sparing his elbow for now) are squaring off tonight. Kluber’s 2014 dominance isn’t a secret. Ventura’s prowess and potential is well known thanks to his triple digit heat. But let’s get some numbers involved.

There’s a ton of sexiness in that chart. Obviously, Kluber’s been the better pitcher – only Felix Hernandez has been better in 2014. His peripherals have been impressive for quite some time, but so far, his run prevention stats have caught up as well. Despite the Indians’ terrible defense, he’s still rocking a sub 3.30 ERA. Rather impressive.

Ventura might lack results at this point, but he’s one of the most aesthetically pleasing pitchers in the game. We all know about his fastball, which has averaged a tick over 96 mph to this point. His change-up, however, seems to be overlooked a little. According to pitchf/x, 14.4% of the pitches he’s thrown thus far has been a change-up, and they’ve averaged 86.2 mph – roughly a 10 mph difference. That difference in mph, combined with the pitch’s movement, has lead to a swSTR of 15.3%.

Edit: Thanks to the rain, Jason Vargas was pushed back until tonight. I’m leaving the chart and notes because Ventura is awesome, and Kluber is still pitching. Thanks for nothing, weather. 

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Today marks the seventh anniversary of the final episode of “The Sopranos.” The last episode wasn’t at all what I expected — particularly the final scene — though I still find myself going back and watching select episodes of the show.

On today’s agenda:
1. Lonnie Chisenhall’s big day
2. Strong game from Scott Van Slyke
3. Michael Cuddyer to the disabled list
4. Grégory Polanco gets the call
5. The daily five

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I feel like all I ever talk about when writing about daily fantasy is platoon splits. Last week I talked about the best and worst starters against batters of each handedness, and today I want to mention a few teams that have some weird splits.

No team has a bigger difference in their performance versus left-handed and right-handed pitching than the Braves who are 30% better than league average against left-handed pitching and 22% below average against right-handed pitching. To be fair, we’re still dealing with some really small sample sizes. Justin Upton and Evan Gattis are leading the way against left-handed pitching as they each have a wRC+ vs. LHP north of 300 but each have less than 50 PA against LHP. That can’t keep up, and the gap will certainly narrow as the season goes on, which is something that can be said for any teams discussed below. But only pick on the Braves with right-handed pitchers.

The Cubs are another team you might like to pick on, but they’ve got a wRC+ of 112 against left-handed pitching. Against right-handed pitching, they’re the worst team in the league with a wRC+ of 73. The Phillies are also much worse against righties. As are the Rangers. In years past you were probably avoiding the Rangers offense on most days, but right now you only need to avoid them with left-handers.

On the flip side, the Indians and Dodgers are tied for the fifth best wRC+ in the league, but they’re doing their damage against right-handed pitching. If you’re going to dominate pitchers of one handedness, right-handers are the ones to dominate since about two-thirds of pitchers are right-handed. But avoid them the third of the time when they face lefties. The Reds offense is another that might have been avoided in the recent past, but they’re the fourth worst offense in the league according to wRC+. You can use pitcher’s of either handedness against them, but their 71 wRC+ vs. LHP is the worst in the league.

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Sticking with the 1980’s film theme from yesterday, today is the 31st anniversary of the film “Trading Places.” This scene depicts the scheme and events to get even with some shady bosses.

On today’s agenda:
1. Kendrys Morales finds a home
2. Thoughts on Khris Davis
3. Russell Martin: on-base machine
4. The daily five

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I don’t have much for a cool intro today. I’ve spent most of my time the past day and a half reading scouting reports of draft picks. Put it this way, I’ve spent way too much time on YouTube watching footage of batting practice, especially considering I have no idea what in the hell I’m looking for. Feel free to ask me questions, though. I’ll make up something that’ll make you feel good about someone who has a pretty solid chance of letting you down in the future!

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Today is the 29th anniversary of “The Goonies” being released. Here is a clip of Chunk’s confession because I can’t help but laugh every time.

On today’s agenda:
1. Solid outing for Drew Smyly
2. Jedd Gyorko to the disabled list
3. Thoughts on Asdrubal Cabrera
4. Marcus Stroman’s strong start
5. The daily five

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Let’s talk a little about league settings today. I’m assuming a few of you still play in standard leagues. Different settings have begun to take hold, though. For the first time in my life, I’m not in one league that uses batting average or wins.

I’m in five leagues this year; one keeper and one dynasty. Three of the leagues have the following settings: R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP x QS, ERA, WHIP, K, SV+HLD. One other league has the same settings, except SLG replaces HR and SV replaces SV+HLD. And my final league, here on Fangraphs (shameless company plug), is points based; Fangraphs points, specifically.

I like portions of each league. I love OBP – sure would be nice if ESPN offered wOBA, though – and I like giving credit for saves and holds, because as we all know, sometimes the “closer” isn’t anywhere near the best reliever on the team.

So far, my favorite setup is the Ottoneu league. Admittedly, it took a little while to come around to it. Some plays that have positive value in other leagues (RBI, etc.) don’t do anything for you in Ottoneu. I’ve come around quickly, though. It’s isolation at it’s finest. Player hits a double? Gets credit for it. Teammates don’t drive him in, though? No harm done. The league’s settings don’t punish players for having weaker teammates. Nor do they help out mediocre hitters who happen to be in the right place at the right time – cough, 2013 Brandon Phillips, cough.

So, what are your favorite settings?

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Today’s Roto Riteup was written while I watch “Star Trek Into Darkness” on Netflix. I never watched any of the older films or the TV shows, but the reboot that came out in 2009 was something I enjoyed.

On today’s agenda:
1. Thoughts on Kendrys Morales
2. Another three-hit game for Chris Owings
3. Andrew Cashner to start tomorrow
4. Welcome to the big leagues, Eddie Butler
5. The daily five

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We all know how important the platoon advantage is to daily fantasy. It can be important for those who platoon slots on their roto rosters as well, but it’s a part of almost all decisions made in daily fantasy. We almost always want our hitters to have it with the exception of the elite hitters who can handle pitchers of either handedness and a weirdo here and there with reverse splits like Adam Jones. There are also some pitchers who have reverse splits, and there are some pitchers who follow the traditional split to an exaggerated degree. Below is a chart showing the best and worst pitchers against batters of each handedness from 2012 to May 31. After the chart and the jump I’ll discuss some of the names.

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Usually I don’t talk about myself very much. At least I try not to, mostly because I’m a shy person. I’m going to today, just for a second, though. I’m assuming sabermetrics – Fangraphs, specifically – changed the way you played fantasy. The first few years I played fantasy baseball, I knew nothing about sabermetrics. That changed three years ago. I stumbled onto Fangraphs, thanks to Twitter. I was quickly enamored with the numbers and principles behind them; learning about FIP, BABiP, small sample sizes, and their nuances forced me to do a complete 180 degree turn in the way I thought about the game.

For example, Pablo Sandoval was dreadful in April. In earlier years, I might have sold low. I would have essentially thrown out his entire body of work for a minuscule sample. Learning more about the game changed me. FIP is a go-to statistic for me now. Without it, or Carson, I would not have known a thing about Corey Kluber last year. I would have seen his ERA around draft time this year and said: “Oh cool, another mediocre pitcher.” Once again, I would have been pissed for either missing out on him, or worse, dropping him.

You’re on Fangraphs, so I’m preaching to the choir here, but learning something new is awesome. In this case, learning something new made a hobby into something even more fun.

If you’re wondering where this came from, I was in my cube at work yesterday thinking about the first year I played fantasy baseball – a salary cap league on Sporting News. It was 2003, Runelvys Hernandez posted a 1.58 ERA during the first month of the season. He struggled in May, got hurt, and his owner dropped him. I thought: “Man, what an idiot,” – I was 12, so cut me some slack. (sorry if that makes you feel old) – and picked him up in preparation for his return. In his final eight starts, he posted an 8.15 ERA while striking out 10.9% of the batters he faced. That guy knew more than me. He knew he didn’t miss bats, among other things. Damn shame it took me so long to figure out that it wasn’t hard to look for signs of a fluke. And granted, now that I’m older, with a career, fantasy takes up a little more of my time because I can’t sit at home and play Final Fantasy VII all summer or play wiffle ball with friends like I did was I was 12. Fantasy is an escape. And thanks to Fangraphs, I’m a little better at fake life.

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