Archive for Daily Fantasy Strategy

Over the past two seasons (2013 – 2014), only nineteen qualified starters have posted a FIP lower than Lance Lynn’s 3.29. He’s been better than Gio Gonzalez, Kris Medlen, Doug Fister, and Homer Bailey, using FIP. I feel like most, if not, all of those men were/are viewed as better fantasy options coming into 2014. Maybe they were; in Medlen’s case, we’ll never know. I definitely had all of them ranked in front of Lynn, and I’ve been proven wrong.

My main reason for dropping Lynn in my rankings was his struggles versus left handed batters. Those concerns haven’t been abated, although, he has been better versus lefties this year: .345 career wOBA allowed versus .326 wOBA this season. His lack of a change-up still hurts, but .19 points of wOBA is nothing to scoff at. Granted, his career number still holds more weight, considering the larger sample. Still, though, progress is progress; this is the second year in a row that number has dropped, after all (was .366 in 2012).

Lynn’s season has been odd in the sense that he’s striking out fewer batters, while walking more. Yet, thanks to little BABiP and HR/FB help – more sinkers help, I’m sure; as has the Cardinals defense – he’s finally beating his peripherals for once. This game’s weird.

Lynn draws the Rays today, who, despite their struggles, have been better than average versus right handed pitching. Read the rest of this entry »

So, last weekend we got our first taste of DraftKings. The results – mine, anyways – were kind of meh. Anthony Rizzo (Friday) and Paul Goldschmidt (Saturday) were easily my best picks of the weekend, combining to hit three home runs while reaching base in seven of their eleven plate appearances.

The pitchers I recommended struggled, especially Dallas Keuchel. I wasn’t able to watch his start, but he must not have been fooling anyone, considering he surrendered twelve hits in 5 innings; it’s a miracle he only gave up three earned runs. The night before, Bartolo Colon was rolling along (not a fat joke) nicely until the fifth inning, in which he surrendered four runs and any chance I had at placing highly in my contests.

All in all, it was a decent weekend. The DraftKings app came in handy, because I spent the majority of my weekend on an interstate. Read the rest of this entry »

Given my status as a nerd, I feel obligated to let you know the film “Revenge of the Nerds” has been out for 30 years now. It hasn’t really held up over time — not that it was particularly great when it was released — but this quote from the character Ogre will continue to live on.

On today’s agenda:
1. A strong start from Rubby de la Rosa
2. Everth Cabrera is making progress
3. Quick thoughts on Danny Duffy
4. The daily five

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Saturday! The All-Star break took the game away from us for four days this year, but thankfully we’re on a full slate today. Honestly, why was there no baseball on Thursday? This was such a boring week for sports. What the hell am I supposed to do at work if there isn’t any breaking news to read? Anyways, I’m using hotel wifi (which sucks), so let’s do this.

Probables Chart

Hector Noesi and his terrible ratios are on the bump today. His match-up isn’t terrible, but Houston does have some power hitters. Travis Wood is better than Noesi, but he’s gotten crushed by right handed batters this season, making Paul Goldschmidt juicy; perhaps Aaron Hill, too. Hell, I don’t mind Martin Prado ($4,000) either.

Last night, David Phelps held the Reds’ lineup in check pretty well. Brandon McCarthy will have to do so tonight. Personally, I root for McCarthy. It’s difficult to ignore his home run struggles, though, considering his new home.

Lastly, I’m all for targeting the following pitchers, on top of the ones mentioned above: Colby Lewis (Toronto is depleted, but Lewis has been wretched lately), Brett Anderson (righties only; huge fan of him as well, but his results this season haven’t been swell), and Wei-Yin Chen (RHB).

There is some iffy weather today, but as usual, that’s more of a worry for pitchers than hitters. I still recommended one pitcher below, despite questionable weather, because I like his match-up so much.

The Daily Five

Todd Frazier – $4,500

Frazier’s power has seemingly blossomed this season. He’ll have Yankee Stadium’s short porch tonight. Devin Mesoraco ($4,200) is also very, very appealing. Choosing catchers on Saturdays can sometime be iffy, but considering the break everyone just had, he should definitely be in the lineup.

Alex Wood – $7,400

The Phillies’ offense is mediocre versus left handed pitching: they’re 19th in wOBA. Wood’s ability to mix strikeouts with groundballs is ideal. Hopefully he’s doing a little of both tonight. (weather pending; hopefully they’re able to get the game in)

Corey Dickerson – $4,400

Charlie Morton has pitched pretty well this season, but Dickerson’s upside is rather large. He’s been quite a boon for many teams, and considering his power/speed potential, he’s nicely priced.

Paul Goldschmidt – $5,700

He’s pricey, but I absolutely love his match-up.

Dallas Keuchel – $6,500

I usually don’t recommend two pitchers, but I couldn’t resist today. The White Sox, as a team, have a .296 wOBA versus left handed pitching. *crosses fingers that Jose Abreu doesn’t hit a bunch of dingers*

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of DraftKings. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.

Today is the 20th anniversary of NOFX releasing their album “Punk in Drublic.” For me the most significant track is Jeff Wears Birkenstocks? mostly because it was a featured track on NCAA Football 06. I still play that game and I have three different schools on the 2014 season. I probably shouldn’t brag about that.

On today’s agenda:
1. The return of Carlos Beltrán
2. Scooter Gennett continues to hit
3. Danny Salazar to return Tuesday?
4. Quick thoughts on Danny Santana
5. The daily five

Read the rest of this entry »

Today, we’ll gather around the TV and watch the All-Star game. Well, most of us will; some don’t care about the event very much. Either way, we’re without baseball for a few days after tonight’s ultimately meaningless home field deciding contest. So let’s take a look back at the Draftstreet All-Stars of the first half. I use wOBA more than anything else when choosing my daily lineup, mostly due to seeing people much better at daily than myself using it. Blake has long used it as a proxy for good daily production. In theory, it should work well. And as you’ll below, it works well in practice, too. Read the rest of this entry »

Here for Blake today. Instead of talking about a specific player let’s talk about fandom, mine in particular.

I haven’t watched my favorite team [the Atlanta Braves] play a game in over two months. I’ve watched maybe five or six innings total of Braves’ baseball. It wasn’t a conscious decision. It just happened. Sure, I joked about not watching until B.J. Upton no longer hit leadoff, but I kinda just stopped watching because I wasn’t enjoying it any longer.

Read the rest of this entry »

Twenty-three years ago today the film “Point Break” was released. In my humble opinion the trailer does not do the film justice. It is a masterpiece of 90’s cinema.

On today’s agenda:
1. Thoughts on Jed Lowrie
2. Kevin Gausman to start tomorrow
3. A pair of NL outfielders return
4. The daily five

Read the rest of this entry »

And, I’m back. After a small vacation, in which I recharged my batteries, hiked, and didn’t play any fantasy, it’s back to normal life. Thankfully, Blake and Brett held the fort down for me, otherwise I guess it wouldn’t have completely been a “vacation.”

While I didn’t play any fantasy, I did manage to get to the ballpark in Denver for one game. Jair Jurrjens pitched in it. Predictably, he was hit very hard. Considering I live in Atlanta, it was nice to see an old friend. Not much has changed for him. Breaking: The Earth keeps spinning and 88 mph over the middle keeps leaving the yard :(.

Probables Chart

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Just under a year ago “The Newsroom” launched their second season. While I personally preferred season one, I did like two a fair amount. I’m optimistic about the upcoming final season wraps things up gracefully — though I suspect the ending to the second season already finished a lot of things (warning: language). Here’s hoping Aaron Sorkin finishes strong and moves on to something even better: Sam Seaborn running for President in a new version of The West Wing.

On today’s agenda:
1. Injuries. Injuries everywhere
2. The daily five

Read the rest of this entry »