Archive for Curtis Granderson

Grady Sizemore and Curtis Granderson are inextricably linked. Both reside in the American League Central, patrolling center field with aplomb while displaying the most diverse set of tools this side of Home Depot. While Sizemore deservedly sits near the top of any draft list that you’ll find, Granderson just does not seem to receive a proper level of admiration. Take this ESPN projection list, for instance. Grady garners first-place honors among center fielders, but Granderson ranks only ninth. While I’m not here to dissuade you from taking Sizemore first, I think it’s worth pointing out that Curtis comes equipped with many of the same virtues, and potentially at a bargain price. Let’s compare our two gifted fly-catchers.

On-Base Ability

Sizemore has posted OBP’s of .375, .390 and .374 over the past three seasons. A highly disciplined hitter (his career Outside-Swing% is 18.8%, compared to a league Avg. near 25%), Sizemore has drawn a free pass between 13-14% over the past two seasons.

Granderson is not quite as patient, but he still gets his fair share of base on balls. Granderson’s OBP’s from 2006-2008 are .335, .361 and .365. He worked a walk 11.4% of the time in 2008 (7.8% in ’07) while improving his O-Swing% from 23.4% in 2007 to 19.8% this past season.

Advantage: Sizemore

Power

Sizemore and Granderson have posted near identical Isolated Power figures during their respective big league careers, with Granderson (.214) ahead of Sizemore (.212) by the slightest of margins. Granderson held a big advantage in 2007, with a .250 ISO compared to Grady’s .185. However, Granderson’s number was due in part to an absolutely ridiculous twenty-three triples. With a more reasonable but still lofty 13 three-baggers in 2008, Curtis saw his ISO settle in at .213, while Grady smacked 33 bombs with a .233 ISO.

Advantage: Push

Base Stealing

When I think of base stealing, I tend to think of doctors. Specifically, the Hippocratic Oath. Some wild, unrestrained runners would serve their teams well by swearing to “above all, do no harm.” A properly leveraged SB can be a very smart play, but the relative value of a stolen base isn’t quite what it’s cracked up to be: according to numbers guru Tom Tango, a SB is worth approximately +.19 runs while a CS chops off a pernicious -.46 runs.

The break-even rate on a SB (that is, the point at which a player is no longer doing harm to his team) is about 67 percent, according to The Book. This might sound abstract, but it has fantasy baseball applications as well: a guy who racks up the SB’s might help you in one category, but if he’s stealing with the “success” rate of a Ryan Theriot (22 SB/13 CS in ’08), he’s costing you possible runs.

While some players compile huge SB totals while costing their club on the base paths, both Sizemore and Granderson have shown the ability to provide quantity and quality. Sizemore has been the consistent SB threat, swiping 22 bags in ’06 (78.6% success rate), 33 in ’07 (76.7%) and 38 in 2008 (88.4%).

Granderson was just about the most effective thief in the game in 2007, snagging 26 SB’s in 27 attempts (96.3%). He didn’t really use those wheels as much this past season, however, nabbing 12 bags in 16 attempts.

Advantage: Sizemore

2009 Projections

CHONE

Sizemore: .286/.386/.503, 28 SB
Granderson: .276/.350/.474, 14 SB

Oliver

Sizemore: .273/.357/.473 (no SB projections)
Granderson: .278/.347/.484

PECOTA

Sizemore: .269/.367/.493, 27 SB
Granderson: .266/.342/.467, 11 SB

Sizemore is very likely the superior player, but don’t forget about the guy holding court in Detroit, either. MVN’s Jeff Freels recently compiled a collection of ADP figures from the likes of CBS, ESPN and Yahoo which showed Sizemore with an ADP of 5. He’s worth that, to be sure. But Granderson? He rated 52nd. If you aren’t fortunate enough to snag the across-the-board production of a Sizemore or a Carlos Beltran, Granderson could be a steal in the 4th or 5th round of your draft, particularly if he turns it loose on the bases once again.

Curtis Granderson was a fantasy star in 2007, when he posted a .302-22-74-122-26 line, which was the 16th-best overall season according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. But Granderson came down with a broken finger in Spring Training last year and missed the first 21 games of the season.

He was not as dominant as he was in 2007 but Granderson still had a $16 fantasy season last year. Somewhat surprisingly, he nearly matched his big year in HR and RBIs, but fell off significantly in SB and AVG.

The projection systems do not see a rebound in average, mainly because his .302 mark in 2007 was fueled by a .362 BABIP, a mark Granderson is unlikely to duplicate. But the projections are also bearish on the 28-year old returning to 20+SB. The three systems that predict steals show him with 13 (Marcel) or 14 (Bill James and CHONE).

But there is a better chance for Granderson to approach his 2007 SB numbers than to hit .300 again. And it goes back to his broken finger. Doctors recommended that Granderson go easy in all workouts while he was recovering from the finger injury, worried that he might jar the finger and suffer a setback.

When Granderson returned, his legs were not in the shape they normally were and his running game suffered. After being successful on 26 of 27 attempts in 2007, Granderson was thrown out on four of his first eight attempts last year. But he was successful on his final eight tries of the year, and only a brutal September, in which he batted .192 with a .294 OBP, kept his attempts down.

A 25-HR, 25-SB season is not out of the question for Granderson. And combined with his likely high Runs total (he averaged 117 runs the past two seasons), Granderson has the potential to be a top-25 fantasy hitter. He currently has an ADP of 49, making Granderson a potential bargain for owners who get him in the late fourth or early fifth round.