Archive for Cubs

The fantasy community expected big things from Willson Contreras in 2018. While Gary Sanchez was the consensus No. 1 catcher overall on draft day, Contreras was usually the second or third catcher off the board, getting drafted roughly on a par with Buster Posey. In 2017 — Contreras’ first full season in the majors — he helped owners with batting average (.276), home runs (21) and RBIs (74), which is a rare combination for a catcher. If not for missing time with a hamstring injury and an oddly-low total of 50 runs, he would have offered even more.

As a 25-year-old set to hit in the heart of a potent Cubs lineup, Contreras seemed like nearly a sure thing to finish the 2018 season as one of the top three catchers in fantasy. Even with Sanchez and Posey struggling, Contreras wound up ranking just 11th in Roto value (per ESPN), three spots behind Posey.
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It was Zach Britton, and not Dellin Betances, who got the save for the Yankees in their 3-2 win over the Red Sox in Tuesday night’s series opener. I have made Britton and Betances co-closers in the grid below, with both receiving the “Hot Seat” label. However, it’s not Britton’s adventure of an inning or Betances’ recent struggles that have put them on the hot seat, but rather that Aroldis Chapman could return as soon as Wednesday. It appears that Chapman’s worst-case scenario is a Thursday return, in the event that Aaron Boone wants to give the lefty an additional day of rest following Monday’s sim game.
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Representing one of the most frustrating bullpens over the last month, could the White Sox situation finally be settling in? This coincides with the return of Nate Jones from the disabled list who recorded his first save since May 22nd on Friday night. Jones allowed a hit with two strikeouts during his second outing back this month and, dare speculate, should be the primary closer going forward. Jace Fry secured his 15th hold walking one and striking out one in the eighth inning while Ian Hamilton yielded a run (unearned) on a hit and a walk with a strikeout en route to his first hold in a two-thirds of an inning appearance in the seventh inning. This bridge continues to evolve, but fantasy owners may be able to take solace in this blueprint over the last two weeks when Chicago owns a lead.

While one bullpen in Chicago takes shape, the other returns to fluidity with Pedro Strop out for the remainder of the regular season. Fantasy owners should not overreact regarding Jose De Le Rosa’s save last night. He did get his first this year working around a double and a walk in Cincinnati. However, all of Jesse Chavez, Steve Cishek and Carl Edwards Jr. pitched in the two prior games making them unavailable in this game. Also, those who think Justin Wilson could figure in the save mix may wish to reconsider since he was passed over for Jamie Garcia. Garcia faced Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett in the eighth inning retiring them in order for his fourth hold. Wilson could have appeared in this game due to usage, so its worth noting. As for future saves while Brandon Morrow looks to complete a bullpen session later this afternoon, look for Chavez and Cishek to take the lead but nothing’s guaranteed. Chavez has been terrific as the Cubs pliable reliever with two wins, three saves, a 1.45 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 0.87 WHIP and 34 strikeouts against four walks in 31 innings since his acquisition. Stay tuned. Read the rest of this entry »

Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen have stepped up as the elite relievers in 2018. We can’t know how Pedro Strop would have stacked up with The Big Two over a full season, because he was a setup reliever for most of the first half. However, after taking over for Brandon Morrow (biceps) after the All-Star break, Strop has been close to automatic as the Cubs’ closer. Only Diaz, Treinen and Jose Leclerc have had more Roto value among full-time closers in the second half (per CBS rankings).

Though he was not in a save situation, Strop was typically solid on Thursday, keeping the Cubs tied with the Nationals through 1.2 innings. With the Cubs taking the lead in the top of the 10th inning, Joe Maddon elected to have Strop bat in order to bring him back for a third inning. He pulled up with a hamstring injury while running out a grounder, and Randy Rosario had to come in to get the save.
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Masked within encrypted updates,time’s running out on a return for Brandon Morrow. Pedro Strop’s filled in affably as the closer since July 19th converting 10 of the 12 save chances provided, including his outing on Wednesday night giving up a hit and a walk with a strikeout for his 12th save of the season. As for Morrow, he would need to throw at least two bullpen sessions and a simulated game prior to returning before the playoffs, but still not progressing well during his rehab, as intimated here:

https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/1037473848873168896

With the high leverage bridge evolving the last three weeks, plan on Strop anchoring the bullpen the rest of the way. There’s a slight glimmer of hope Morrow could return, but this rhetoric about his progress has been proliferated for almost two months. Plan accordingly.

More concrete news regarding Kenley Jansen. He will not make the trip to Colorado for a big series with implications in the standings. However, staying healthy, as it should be, remains of the utmost importance regarding his heart issues. Jansen did get work in on Wednesday tossing a clean ninth inning with two strikeouts. He’s made four straight scoreless appearances with five strikeouts against three hits since his four game runs allowed stretch. While this proves encouraging, his doctor also recommended Jansen returns to using the prescribed medication which made him feel like a “zombie” during the runs streak, so stay tuned to how this could affect his future performance. As for this weekend, Los Angeles could deploy a committee of Ryan Madson, Kenta Maeda and a wild card in high leverage:

Given the downside risk of bringing Kenley Jansen to Denver, plus the addition of Ryan Madson and the expected activation of Ross Stripling, it is hard to imagine the Dodgers will bring Kenley Jansen to Denver.

— Andy McCullough (@ByMcCullough) September 5, 2018

Unlike Maeda, Ross Stipling seemed excited for a chance to record a save if transitioned to the bullpen and makes for an intriguing arm this weekend in Coors for the Dodgers. Stay tuned. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s a fine line between stubborn and obstinate, and Bud Black seemingly walks it each year with struggling closers. It’s encouraging to see he trusts his ninth inning arm, but in the midst of a playoff chase, can he afford to keep providing save chances to Wade Davis? Davis blew his second straight save on Friday night in Milwaukee culminating on a three-run walk-off home run by Eric Thames. With the knowledge Davis converted 11 straight saves prior to these implosions, one can make the case for Black to stand by his man. However, Davis has blown six saves this year and giving up wins in the spotlight applies more pressure to his now tenuous hold on the closer role. Especially with Adam Ottavino thriving in the eighth inning.

Colorado could give Davis a couple of mental days off or let him work in lower leverage for an outing or two to get him back on track without removing him from his present role. On the surface, he’s giving up eight percent more contact, to be expected with half of his games in Coors, and generating fewer swinging strikes (down five percent compared to last year). During the last 30 days, Davis has pitched in 12 games (11.1 innings) with a 12:5 K:BB, 7.94 ERA, 4.67 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. Hardly inspiring. Ottavino’s not allowed an earned run over his last 14 outings (15 innings) and secured his last three saves along with eight straight holds since June 28th. Suggesting a change from the outside looking in can be easy, seeing how the Rockies respond to Davis’ recent struggles remains to be seen. Read the rest of this entry »

The long-anticipated trade of Brad Hand finally went down on Thursday. The Padres dealt him and Adam Cimber to the Indians for Francisco Mejia, effectively remaking both teams’ bullpens.

The Indians find themselves in a similar spot to where they were two years ago, when they acquired Andrew Miller at the trade deadline. With Hand, they now have an elite lefty reliever who has performed better than Cody Allen, who has been the incumbent closer in both situations. Terry Francona is expected to stick with Allen as his primary closer, just as he did upon the team’s acquisition of Miller.
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While fantasy owners lament when Brandon Morrow does not receive a save opportunity, it’s time for them to adjust to his usage going forward. Morrow received three days off after working in consecutive outings this weekend. On the season, Morrow’s pitched in back-to-back games five times all season. He’s 20-for-22 in save chances with a terrific 1.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but the Cubs will continue to handle him with care with an eye on the playoffs. Roster limitations can affect attempting to handcuff this bullpen so it’s time to adjust to the situation at hand instead of hoping it evolves going forward. Of course, missing out on saves stinks, but having Morrow healthy during the second half outweighs fantasy implications.

With at least three members of the Marlins bullpen linked in trade rumors, racking up extra inning games does not help limit usage. Kyle Barraclough allowed three hits while striking out the side to keep the game tied last night but has surrendered nine hits his last six innings after holding hitters to six hits his first 30 games. Regression to the mean happens all the time in baseball, so noting Barraclough’s 1.31 ERA accompanies a 3.61 FIP along with a 92.4 left-on-base percentage hints more could be on the way.  Drew Steckenrider blew his third save giving up two hits and two earned runs with a walk while striking out two. After recording 19.2 straight scoreless innings, Steckenrider’s allowed runs in back-to-back games on four hits and two walks. Read the rest of this entry »

It just hasn’t been Salvador Perez’s season so far. He missed the Royals’ first 20 games with a Grade 2 MCL tear in his left knee, which he sustained while carrying luggage. Perez responded well upon his return, posting an .840 OPS over his first 11 games and even catching both games of a doubleheader just four days after getting activated.

Since then, Perez has been hampered by a different type of baggage. Over his last 54 games, he has been batting .194 overall and just .201 on balls in play. His xBA over that period, according to Baseball Savant, is .257, but that doesn’t mean that Perez’s fantasy owners should just sit back and enjoy the positive regression to come. Over last month, encompassing 101 plate appearances, Perez has batted .163 with one home run and three doubles, and his hard contact rate has been a pedestrian 34.7 percent.
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Dull days in the unrelenting chase for saves rarely occur, Wednesday was no exception. Brandon Morrow owners breathed a collective sigh of relief seeing him record his 19th save on Wednesday giving up a hit with a strikeout. Morrow did not pitch on Tuesday after working 1.1 innings on Sunday to the dismay of the fantasy community. Returning from a mild back injury, it’s clear the Cubs will be handling Morrow with care. He only needed 19 pitches on Sunday retiring four of the five hitters he faced. But Pedro Strop notched the save on Tuesday, his second this year, in lieu of Morrow. As for Morrow, he’s converted 12 straight saves, 19 of 20 this year with a 1.40 ERA which underscores why fantasy owners want more. But, in deference to Morrow’s injury riddled past, the Cubs keeping him fresh and not committing to giving him a heavy workload could work out best in the long run no matter how frustrating. Plan accordingly.

With Seranthony Dominguez settling in as a more traditional one inning closer, or at least his owners hope, he received a much deserved day off on Wednesday. Dominguez locked down his fourth straight save on Tuesday but needed 28 pitches over 1.1 innings to do so. After Victor Arano pitched a clean top of the eighth, he stayed in for the ninth walking one and striking out three en route to his first major league save. Arano’s been scoreless his last five outings and could be in the periphery of saves in this type of scenario going forward as the Phillies try to make a push for the playoffs. Read the rest of this entry »