Archive for Craig Kimbrel

First, the ?’s.

Second, the historical K%’s.

And of course, the Grid…

1) The ?’s

Angels at Twins: Glen Perkins has a sore neck (received a MRI after tingling, but there was no structural damage). Ron Gardy said he should be back within a few a days so I wouldn’t jump to the waiver wire for anyone. We didn’t get a chance to see who would have had the opportunity to close out the games for the Twins tonight. While it was presumably Jared Burton, he received the loss, getting beat by a Albert Pujols double after a single (Cron) and walk (Trout) and then Anthony Swarzak let in the inherited runner.  Huston Street earned save #37. That’s 3 straight appearances for Street and he could potentially use the day off tomorrow. He only has 2 k’s in through his last 5 appearances, and his win yesterday came from a blown save. He induced only 1 whiff from 6 swings tonight.

Astros at Athletics: Sean Doolittle had a successful bullpen session today and should be activated next week. Until then, it’s still Eric O’Flaherty closing out games. David Wiers called O’Flaherty a wild-card for the closing role prior to the season and the ground ball rate (58+%) and weak contact (.213 BABIP) holds true. Tonight, Luke Gregerson pitched a scoreless 9th for the win. Heck, if you’re own a hold league, why not own the entire Oakland bullpen next year?

Chad Qualls remains under the weather with a case of the shaky qualls. He let both of Scott Feldman’s inherited runners score and then gave up the winning single to blow a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the 9th. I would think and hope that Tony Sipp is next up  for the closing role. Other than a shellacking on 8/25 (4BB and 4 ER without recording an out), he’s been lights out since 8/12 (12 K’s, 0 BB’s and only 1 hit). Yesterday, he struck out 4 of 7 batters. I’d like to see him with the gig.

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Reds at Pirates: The Josh Harrison show included a triple in the bottom of the 8th that gave the Pirates the lead for a Mark Melancon save (#25).

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For my first Bullpen Report, I wanted to provide additional value so I blasted “Enter Sandman” and sprinted toward my office to write this.

Below the report of yesterday’s games, you will find rankings for 5×5 (W,ERA,WHIP,K,SV) and 6×6 (+Holds) leagues based on Zach Sander’s FVARz approach. For reference, I used 108 active Pitchers = 9 P x 12 teams and 25 IP as a qualifier. Why 25? I didn’t want to leave Ken Giles off the list.

But there’s more. In addition to their fantasy value, I’ve z-scored outcomes on the plate appearance level to depict pitcher skill (K%-BB%, Ct%, GB/FB, F-Str%, and IFFB% weighed by their correlations to ERA) and luck (BABIP, HR/FB and LOB% weighed by their correlations to ERA) thus far this season. To back up the top 20 relievers ranked by my “Skill” Score, I also furnished grids on their pitch outcomes, which depicts how well their individual pitches induce whiffs and grounders vs. flies.

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We’re all well aware that Craig Kimbrel is really good. But allow me to give you a little refresher on his greatness.

He’s led all relievers on ESPN’s player rater in two of the last three years and was second in the year he didn’t top the list. Among qualified relievers in those three years he ranks second in ERA, first in xFIP and SIERA, first in saves, and first in strikeout rate. His strikeout rate is so elite that he also leads in K%-BB% despite having a walk rate that is only slightly above average. He’s a stud.

But is he good enough to transcend the “don’t pay for saves” mantra that was started by Matthew Berry and piggybacked on by countless fantasy writers? Read the rest of this entry »

Since 2010, the Atlanta Braves bullpen owns a major league best 2.95 ERA (3.21 FIP) with 1,628 strikeouts. They’ve been worth 19.1 WAR over that same time frame, placing them behind only the Colorado Rockies who’ve accumulated 19.8 WAR. Additionally, Atlanta’s ‘pen saved 152 games since the beginning of ‘10 — third-best in the bigs — as well as earning the league’s fourth-most holds, 276.

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– Craig Kimbrel locked down his 9th save on 10 pitches tonight in a 3-2 Braves victory over the Nationals. The right-hander whiffed just one batter in the top of the ninth-inning resulting in a dip of his K% from 38.9% to 38.5% on the season. Oof. Kimbrel is now 9-of-10 in save opportunities with a 1.69 ERA (1.03 FIP) on the year. But the narrative shouldn’t just be about ninth-inning man here. Fredi Gonazlez summonsed both Jordan Walden and Eric O’Flaherty from the ‘pen prior to calling on the closer. Combined, Walden and O’Flaherty dished 2.2 clean innings while fanning five Nationals. Entering tonight, the Braves bullpen held a 2.18 ERA (2.84 FIP) in 70.1 IP. Not bad.

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The Braves bullpen put up some fantastic numbers last season. A lot of it had to do with Craig Kimbrel’s gaudy numbers, but the group as a whole was pretty good. They were the fifth best bullpen according to WAR and had the second best ERA backed up by the best xFIP and the second best SIERA. The scary part is that they added to the unit by dealing Tommy Hanson for Jordan Walden.

The Closer

Craig Kimbrel

You could go on and on about how great Kimbrel was last year and post an endless list of crazy stats. But the short version is this: Kimbrel led relievers in K% and only one guy was within 10 percentage points of him. He also led the league in K/BB, xFIP, and SIERA while trailing only Fernando Rodney in ERA. He’s the undisputed #1 closer this year. Unfortuantely, that means he’s going way too high in drafts. The latest you can get Kimbrel is probably somewhere in the 40’s, and you just can’t pass on the quality hitters still available at that point to take a closer. Read the rest of this entry »

• Mets reliever Frank Francisco will likely miss the remainder of the 2012 season after experiencing a setback from elbow tendinitis this past weekend. Manager Terry Collins indicated that since Francisco hasn’t pitched in nine days, he’d need to get some side work in before getting back into live action, but with just eight games remaining, “he’s not sure when that would take place.” The Mets closer saved 23-of-26 games with a 5.53 ERA (4.10 xFIP) and a 2.24 K/BB – his lowest since 2007 when he sported a 1.77 K/BB.
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• Huston Street experienced a setback during his attempt to “ramp up” the recovery process during his recent trip to the disabled list for a strained left calf. The Padres’ closer, who recently signed a $14-million, two-year extension, initially hit the DL on August 11th with the calf strain. After a bullpen session on Tuesday, manager Bud Black indicated Street “felt great throwing and his delivery is fine.” The manager’s main concern was whether “Street could field his position” or not. As Colin also noted, there is no current timetable for the All-Star’s return. Street is 21-for-21 in save opportunities this season with a 0.75 ERA (2.30 xFIP) with a career high 35.7% K%. Street’s two trips to the disabled list have caused him to miss more than 50 games thus far in 2012.

In his absence, manager Bud Black asked Luke Gregerson, and to a lesser extent, Tom Layne to close out games depending on match-ups.
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• John Axford won an 11-pitch duel with Rob Brantly by inducing a fly ball to left field for the third out in the ninth-inning and the 8-5 victory for the Crew over the Marlins. The save was Axford’s seventh consecutive successful conversion and 25th in 33 chances this season.
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