Archive for Conor Jackson

In today’s Deep League Waiver Wire, we look at three players who could help your batting average, among other things.

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Oakland Athletics acquired OF/1B Conor Jackson from the Arizona Diamondbacks for RHP Sam Demel.

Jackson, 28, is under team control through the 2011 season. The 2003 first-round pick out of Cal established himself as a fairly patient hitter with mid range pop over the 2006-2008 seasons, hitting a combined .292/.371/.450 with a .361 wOBA. Adjusting for park and league factors, Jackson’s lumber was 14 percent better than average (114 wRC+). That’s not overwhelming for a guy who mainly manned first base, but Jackson controlled the zone (10.1 BB%, 12.8 K%), showed adequate power (.158 ISO) and improved his fantasy appeal by qualifying in the outfield during the ’08 season.

The past two years haven’t been nearly as kind. Jackson battled Valley Fever in 2009, limiting him to just 110 PA. He batted .182/.264/.253, with a .251 wOBA. Slowed by a right hamstring injury that required a DL stint in April, Jackson’s got a .298 wOBA and a .238/.326/.331 triple-slash in 172 PA this season. His ISO, .071 in 2009, hasn’t cracked triple-digits in 2010 either (.093).

In Oakland, Jackson figures to take over most of the playing time in left field. He’s worth a flyer in AL-only formats, but it’s hard to know how he’ll hit in the green and gold, given the uncertainty regarding his health. If Jackson is moving past the illness that sapped his strength, he could return to the .350-.360 wOBA range. Given that he has rated as about average in an outfield corner to this point, that would make Jackson a decent starting option for the A’s.

Mixed-leaguers probably want a player with higher upside and greater certainty, though. It’s also worth noting that Jackson will be moving from Chase Field, which (per the Bill James Handbook) increased run-scoring 15 percent and homers seven percent compared to a neutral park over the 2007-2009 seasons, to the Coliseum, which depressed runs nine percent and dingers 10 percent over the same time frame. That won’t help his chances of regaining fantasy relevance.

With Jackson no longer in the desert, Gerardo Parra will presumably get the majority of PT in left for the Diamondbacks. The 23-year-old lefty batter, rated as the 88th-best prospect in the game by Baseball America prior to 2009, has a .281/.319/.400 major league line in 609 PA over the past two seasons. The Venezuelan native has a .309 wOBA and a 82 wRC+, as he has rarely walked (5.4 BB%) or laced the ball into the gaps (.119 ISO).

Swinging early and often getting behind in the count (career 64.4 first pitch strike percentage, compared to the 58% MLB average), Parra has hit grounders at a 53.5% clip. He’s a good defender in an outfielder corner, but his offensive ceiling is subject to debate –Parra’s not uber-projectable at 5-11 and 195 pounds, and he didn’t display much thump in the minors (career .126 ISO). He was generally young for the levels at which he played, but Baseball America capped his home run power at the low-to-mid-teens, remarking that “if he has to move to an outfield corner he starts to look like a tweener.”

Demel, meanwhile, is expected to join a wretched D-Backs pen that ranks dead last in xFIP (5.16) and Win Probability Added (-6.88). A third-round pick in the 2007 draft out of TCU, Demel has missed lots of lumber as a pro (10 K/9) but has usually struggled to locate (4.5 BB/9). While the righty didn’t crack BA’s list of top 30 A’s prospects heading into 2010, Demel has added a cut fastball to his low-90’s fastball, changeup and erratic slider. In 28.2 IP with Triple-A Sacramento, the 24-year-old had 8.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a characteristically strong ground ball rate (49.4%; his overall GB% in the minors is 54.5). Demel’s worth monitoring, particularly if Arizona shops Chad Qualls to a team that focuses more on his very good track record and 3.56 xFIP this season instead of his bloated ERA.

The Arizona Diamondbacks apparently know how to clean out their veterans in order to take a look at the future. Or maybe things just fell that way. In any case, whether by injury (Chris Snyder, Conor Jackson and Eric Byrnes), trade (Felipe Lopez), or release (Tony Clark), the Diamondbacks have opened up four positions for auditions.

We have already taken a look at Josh Whitesell and his chances of proving himself worthy of the first base job. But will these other young D-Backs have lasting power? Let’s take a look at a trio of possibly under-appreciated D-Backs.

Ryan Roberts – Roberts was a fringe option a while back, but now he’s shown a little bit of power (three home runs) and a little bit of speed (five stolen bases) without a glaringly bad batting average. Is it possible that Roberts will claim the job and keep it despite being a minor league journeyman that has suffered from a bad strikeout rate in the majors so far? In a word, yes. Mostly because of his defense (+18.5 UZR/150 at 2B) and the lack of a potential second baseman in the system (although Rusty Ryal is showing good power in AAA right now, he’s old at 26 and has an inconsistent career), Roberts looks like a strong bet to keep the job. With the fact that his strikeout rates have consistently declined in both the major leagues and minor leagues, Roberts could actually find himself starting for many NL-only leagues next year, but he won’t be the kind of player that wins or loses your league for you. There’s just not enough power or speed here.

Gerardo Parra – Parra is another player that didn’t elicit much excitement in the minor leagues, albeit without all the bouncing around that Roberts had to go through. It just was clear from his .311/.373/.436 minor league line that he didn’t have much power, and though he had 84 stolen bases in the minors, his 71% success rate and declining steals totals weren’t very exciting either. Add in the fact that it was clear from his usage in the minors that the team didn’t think he was a center fielder, and you have your typical fourth outfielder. So far his .281/.321/.427 major league line this year is borderline, and good enough for fantasy owners in deep leagues. But with Byrnes coming back with his big contract and better defense (0.2 UZR/150 for Parra, 6.2 for Byrnes), the guess here is that Parra will be a bench bat next year.

Miguel Montero – Montero is actually in a different category. He’s more of a post-hype sleeper, because he came up with nice numbers in the minors (.291/.360/.467) and the designation of Future Catcher for the DBacks. Then a funny thing happened on the way to his first 500+ plate appearances. He struck out more than he ever did in the minor leagues and just couldn’t put enough wood on the bat to keep his batting average north of .250 for very long. Guess what. He’s got his strikeout rate down to his minor league levels (around 15%), and suddenly he looks like he did in the minor leagues: a catcher that can discern pitches and whallop the right ones. Montero is a stud again, and should be owned in all keeper leagues regardless of size. Like Roberts, sometimes it just takes a little time to get back to the player you were in the minors.

Maybe I’ve been surfing the web a little too much. Maybe becoming Stewart Cink’s 559,250th follower on Twitter has addled my brain. But today I thought I would take a look at three players whose last names begin with W, and do so for the win, or not, as the case may be. Hey, at least this intro was a little better than my last one, eh?

Josh Willingham – The offense around him is not good. Eric Seidman pointed out at the beginning of June that all of his nine home runs were solo home runs – threatening the ‘record’ for solo home run percentage set by Curtis Granderson in 2007 (21 out of 23). Well, Willingham has finally hit a non-solo home run – but only one. So you probably don’t pick Willingham up for RBI, but it’s also starting to look like his mini power breakout is for real. He’s shown the on-base skills before (12.9% BB% this year, 11.2% career), and his .317 BABIP (.306 career) does not portend a quick and painful slump in the future. Could the new power be as simple as the fact that his new park is helping him out? Park factors are not always stable from year to year, so this year’s half season, in which Florida’s stadium is giving up more home runs than Washington’s, is less relevant when put against that same stadium’s consistent pitcher-friendly park factors. Take last year, for instance, and Washington’s stadium gave up 10% more home runs and doubles as Willingham’s old park. Of course, his .545 slugging percentage is over 10% better than his career slugging percentage in Florida (.432), but Willingham is 30 and could easily be peaking this year. Wonky math aside, Willingham will get his chance to prove that he is who he thinks he is – in Washington or elsewhere.

Josh Whitesell – The Diamondbacks finally got savvy to their lost season and began to look to the future at first base. With Conor Jackson still laid low by his mysterious illness, and with Tony Clark shown the door (and over to the Mets perhaps?), Whitesell gets his chance. His consistently high strikeout rates in the minors (ranging from 22% to 26% before this year) have led to inconsistent batting averages (ranging from .264 to .328). But this year he finally cut the rate down below 20% and had a good followup to last year’s career best .328/.425/.568 AAA debut. He’s only two years younger than incumbent Chad Tracy, but Tracy’s declining OPS and difficulty staying on the field are both reasons that Whitesell may have a window to take over the position if he starts out hot. His 23% strikeout rate in his 62 major-league at-bats this year bodes well, even if he hasn’t shown the power yet.

Cory Wade – Wade’s story is a sad story that we’ve all heard before: Young, promising reliever debuts on a veteran team led by Joe Torre, who goes on to ride that young arm to the postseason without a look at the usage stats and patterns or a care for the reliever’s future. Call Scott Proctor for details, but Wade is on the DL with a sore shoulder and it all sounds too familiar. With all the research about starters’ usage and their development, perhaps a little more attention could go to the blue-collar workers out in the pen. Torre is, once again, using his relievers more than any other manager in the league, and Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario are the new Cory Wades. They, like Wade, are among league leaders in relief appearances. Like Wade (71.1 IP), Torre’s new toys are on pace to rack up big innings totals (Troncoso – 102 IP pace, Belisario – 86 IP pace). Like he did with Wade and Proctor before, will Torre break his newest toys?

Stock Up

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto displayed his superb talent last season, though his tendency to cough up homers and occasionally lose the strike zone dragged down his overall line. In 2009, he’s made progress on both fronts. In 39.2 frames, Cueto has a 3.13 FIP, the product of a 2.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.32 in ’08) and 0.45 HR/9. There’s certainly been some lucky bounces here to produce that 1.59 ERA: Cueto’s BABIP is .260, his strand rate is near 90% and his 4.2 HR/FB% is extremely low.

On the bright side, he’s shaved a little more than one walk per nine innings off his 2008 total (2.50 BB/9 this year, 3.52 in ’08). While his K rate (7.26 K/9) is down from last season (8.17), the overall net effect is positive (as Justin pointed out in the comments section, Cueto’s K/PA figure is slightly higher this year due to his efficiency). Cueto’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, checks in at 4.34 (4.62 last season).

Jay Bruce, Reds

It’s the all-Reds edition of Stock Watch! A 22 year-old lefty with immense power, Bruce has adapted to major league pitching faster than most anticipated. With a .391 wOBA, 10 big flys and a sweet .262/.342/.570 line, Bruce has certainly been The Boss in 2009. Happily, his control of the strike zone (his biggest hurdle) has improved. Bruce has drawn a walk 10.1% of the time in 2009 (7.4% last year), whiffed less often (20.6% in ’09, 26.6% in ’08), and has cut his Outside-Swing percentage from 30.4% to 25.7%. In other words, he’s already among the best outfielders in the game, and he’ll only get better from here.

Carl Crawford, Rays

Crawford has probably stolen about six bases since I started typing this sentence. Tampa’s swift left fielder has been an absolute terror on the base paths in 2009, going a perfect 22-for-22 on stolen base attempts. With 3 more thefts, Crawford will match his total from an injury-marred 2008 season. If we use Tom Tango’s SB run value of +.19, then Crawford is closing in on half a win added in the stolen base department already.

Fortunately, Crawford is showing progress in other facets of his game as well. His Outside Swing% is down to 24.8%, from last year’s hacktastic 31.5% mark (24.4% MLB average). His 8.8% walk rate isn’t awe-inspiring, but it is the highest mark of his career. With 1.7 Wins Above Replacement, Crawford has been one of the ten most productive position players in the game.

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

Let’s give credit where it’s due: Jackson has been pretty darned effective in 2009. He came to Detroit with a reputation as a radar-gun curiosity who didn’t miss many bats or control the zone particularly well, but he’s making strides. Jackson isn’t a 2.60 ERA pitcher (duh), but his K/BB ratio is an impressive 3.18. With 7 K’s per nine and 2.20 BB/9, Jackson holds a 3.51 FIP. He’s looking more legitimate by the start.

David Wright, Mets

Wright’s early-season scuffle raised both panic and ire, but he’s just fine now. His wOBA is back up to .367, and he’s popped enough extra-base hits of late to raise his Isolated Power to .174. Wright is batting .364/.436/.697 in May. Hopefully, you didn’t sell low. One aspect of Wright’s game that is curiously diminishing is his stolen base ability. He was 34-for-39 in 2007, 15-for-20 in 2008 and just 5-for-10 in 2009.

Stock Down

Scott Kazmir, Rays

What happens to a control-challenged southpaw when he loses his ability to dominate hitters? Take a gander at Kazmir to find out. The 25 year-old’s walk rate has increased for a fourth straight season (4.97 BB/9), but he’s just not fooling batters the way he used to (7.11 K/9). Kazmir’s fastball velocity has dipped from 91.7 MPH in 2008 to just 89.9 MPH in 2009, and his hard, mid-80’s power slider is now more of a low-octane frisbee (80.4 MPH). With just 46.4% of his offerings crossing home plate (48.9% MLB average) and opponents making contact 84.3% of the time (75.1% career average), something is wrong with the Rays’ former ace.

Mike Aviles, Royals

Tony Pena Jr. might be on the DL, but Aviles has compensated by doing his best impression. After an unexpectedly productive rookie season, Aviles’ bat has flat lined in 2009. Impatient to a fault (2.9 BB%), the 28 year-old isn’t getting any favorable bounces on balls put in play (.247 BABIP). His nefarious .226 wOBA is fifth-worst among all batters, and he’s been nearly a win below replacement level with the lumber already. With lackluster play in the field as well (-12.6 UZR/150), Aviles has been an anchor on Kansas City’s hopes of staying competitive.

Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks

Never exactly known for his feats of strength (career .150 ISO and .431 SLG%), Jackson has been downright punchless this season. His microscopic .071 ISO ranks among the worst in the game. Jackson is not this bad, mind you: his .210 BABIP is incredibly low, so he should revert back more toward his usual level of production as the season goes on. The question is: is that enough? Underpowered as a first baseman, Jackson’s work in left field is still under review. Singles-hitting corner players aren’t exactly in vogue, so the 27 year-old is going to have to show some thump to do more good than harm to Arizona’s dwindling playoff chances.

Jeff Francoeur, Braves

Francoeur is this generation’s Joe Carter, compiling counting stats that mask the fact that he’s sort of a drag on his team’s offense. Frenchy continues to show next to no progress in terms of plate discipline, wildly hacking at 34.6% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Not coincidentally, his First-Pitch Strike% is a career-high 71 percent (57.6% MLB average). Francoeur has gotten behind 0-1 or put the ball in play on the first pitch more than any other batter in the majors. With a wretched .290 OBP and little pop (.136 ISO), he’s produced a .299 wOBA. Showing apparent apathy toward working the count, Francoeur is an absolute mess at the plate right now.

Ian Snell, Pirates

Snell scarcely resembles the guy who posted a 4.01 FIP during the 2007 campaign. After walking 2.94 batters per nine innings during that year, Snell’s control took a giant leap back in ’08 (4.87 BB/9) and continues to go south in 2009 (5.4 BB/9). His K rate, 8.18 during his first full season in the big in 2006, checks in at just 6.08 this year (the continuation of a four-year decline). He’s not fooling much of anyone, and has put just 44.3% of his pitches within the strike zone (48.9% MLB average). Snell will continue to take his turns on a pitching-starved staff, but he hasn’t pitched like an above-average starter in quite some time. His FIP is 5.33.