Archive for clint barmes

With the news that Jose Reyes is being activated from the disabled list here on Wednesday, there’s a fairly good chance that whoever owns him in your league might have a shortstop  to send back to the player pool. Of course, if your Reyes owner is like me and landed Jean Segura early on, then chances are, you won’t be seeing the extra help on your waiver wire. If that’s the case, then perhaps there’s someone else out there whom you haven’t investigated just yet, so here are a couple of suggestions. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the biggest criticisms of saber-enthusiasts is their tendency to ignore the human element of the game.  Their breakdown and analysis of the game is all about the numbers, statistical trends, replacement values, etc.  These aren’t robots here on the field playing the game, yet often during a study of it, they are, in a way, treated as such.  And for me, I have to agree with the critics.  You simply can’t ignore the human element.  It must be accounted for in some way.  Why?  Because humans are inherently stupid and common sense is the least common thing in this world. Read the rest of this entry »

During the week, Paul Swydan covered the marquee move of Dan Uggla in his Top 5 Targets, but there are a few more guys who filled out a change of address form at their local post office this off season.  These guys are definitely more low budget, but perhaps, in their new digs, they’ll be able to provide you with some worthwhile fantasy totals.  Sometimes, all a guy needs is a little change of scenery. Read the rest of this entry »

A while back, we checked the position at second base and outlined some tiers that should help you choose between options in your draft. Unfortunately, this position doesn’t produce ADP values as cleanly as some other positions (and we like our values clean).

Take the first two tiers, for example. It would be nice to pick the lowest-drafted second baseman in the first two tiers, Brian Roberts (40.69 ADP), and just declare him the value of the two tiers. The problem is that Roberts has too many question marks to get the (grade A) stamp of approval as a value. For instance, though his ISO was a second-best last year (.168), and it seems to have grown organically (three straight increases), that ISO has famously peaked before (.201 in his 18-home-run 2005 season) and then returned back towards the baseline (.137). He’s 32 and his stolen bases have declined for two straight seasons. Then again, 2008 produced his career-best full-season speed score (7.3), and that wasn’t so long ago. The point is, counting on his for anything more than 12 or so home runs and 30 or so stolen bases probably isn’t a good idea, and those numbers seem a little light for the third round. On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia (37.48 ADP) goes three picks earlier and isn’t going to hit that stolen base number and may only out-homer Roberts by a handful. Maybe Roberts is the actual value here.

There is a lot of questionable power in the next tier. Aaron Hill (46.87 ADP), Robinson Cano (45.83 ADP) and Jose Lopez (123.97 ADP) all had power spikes last year, and their draft positions show the confidence the general public has that the different players will return with good power in 2010. Once again, it’s tempting to take Lopez with the lowest ADP and call him the value – and there are some reasons to believe the power will stick. His ISO, fly ball, and HR/FB rates have all steadily risen over the last three years. The problem is that, with his walk rate (3.7% career), his value is tied up in that power, and his career ISO (.141) is still low enough that it is hard to count on. Why not take Dan Uggla (85.10) a couple rounds earlier so that you can depend on his power (.225 career ISO)? Here it seems that Uggla is the real value in the tier.

The final tier is a rag-tag group, as Asdrubal Cabrera (158.18) and Howie Kendrick (146.64) leading the way, though neither is a lock to hit 15 home runs or stolen bases next year. They’ll have to hit a lot of singles to make up for their shortcomings in those two important fantasy categories. Again here, Clint Barmes (307.61) and Adam Kennedy (327.96) bring up the rear but have too many questions to tout as the values of the tier. Barmes doesn’t walk (4.3%), strikes out a fair amount (22% last year), and though he showed power last year (.195 ISO), his career power is less exciting (.157). He’s also done a lot of jumping around in the power department, and last year may have just defined his upside anyway. Kennedy had a nice year, but despite his 20 stolen bases last year, his speed score was actually below-average. He doesn’t really have a single skill you can count on.

If you’re going to take a plunge, why not take one on Rickie Weeks (212.37 ADP)? Yes, it will cost a healthier pick than Barmes, but we’re still talking about a 19th-round pick in mixed league drafts. His ISO has jumped around some too (.125 – .245), but it’s been trending upwards in a general way. There’s still the upside that he might finally put together one of his better strikeout rates (say, 2008’s 24.2%) with one of his better walk rates (11.8% in 2008) and BABIPs (.313 last year) and get his batting average up past the .250s. We know he has power and speed, and an okay batting average would make him a valuable second baseman, especially in head-to-head leagues. That he might be the value of the final tier should serve as a positional scarcity warning for the position, too.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops and catchers.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

Chase Utley is in a tier of his own. No other second baseman has been able to combine the power and speed and batting average year-in and year-out like the pomade Phillie infielder. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips are missing the batting average and the health, Dustin Pedroia and Brian Roberts are missing the power. That said, these top five second basemen are all reasonably stable players that boast good speed along with varying degrees of power. They just don’t all have the total package like Utley.

The next tier should be the controversial one. While Aaron Hill’s season was one for the ages, there are understandably some doubts about his ability to repeat. He more than doubled his previous career-high HR/FB percentage without really showing a corresponding change in his approach. The most likely scenario is that Hill settles in with similar power to fellow tier-member Robinson Cano. Cano would be higher but since he’s shown that his batting average seems so tied to his BABIP, there’s some rightful nervousness about his ability to repeat his own career year. Dan Uggla and Jose Lopez have similar power and similar batting average issues. Pick the right player during a good BABIP year, and you’ll have a great second baseman with a decent batting average and lots of power. Get the guy in a bad year, and you’ve seen what can happen.

The last tier holds the most risk, as it should be. There are many Asdrubal Cabrera fans, and his double eligibility will get him drafted at one of the keystone positions. The problem is that the speed is somewhat borderline (21/29 in 1000+ at bats) and the power is negligible. Clint Barmes may not succeed on a good percentage of his attempts, and he’s a much more flawed real-life player, but he’s reached heights in power and speed that Cabrera may never. Adam Kennedy had a great year and ended up right around where he was five years ago, a second basemen that can hit double-digit home runs, steal about 20 bags, and hit close to .300. It’s not the same upside as the rest of the guys in the tier, but it seems repeatable. Howie Kendrick and Rickie Weeks probably have the most upside of the tier, but they are quickly running out chances in the minds of fantasy managers. Both made strides in their limited time last year and make for good bench plays in mixed league drafts for managers that got a third- or fourth-tier second baseman as their starter.

Overall, the position seems pretty deep, with empty-batting-average guys numbering #15-18 as backup plans. Once Utley goes, managers might be best served waiting for a second baseman to drop, knowing that they can probably take a shot on a young guy with some upside once the top 12 are gone.

As you’ve probably already heard from some of the other great sites covering minor league baseball around The Net, the annual Futures Game rosters have been announced. And, as usually, both the U.S. roster and the World roster are stuffed with talented prospects.

One interesting name of the U.S roster is second baseman Eric Young Jr. of the Colorado Rockies. For whatever reason, though, the Rockies organization is not nearly as enamored with the infielder as I am… which is odd given the marketing angle with Young Jr.’s father Eric Sr. having been the Rockies’ first ever second baseman back in 1993. The younger Young also has a proven minor league track record of success at the plate and on the base paths, which should make this a match made in heaven.

The 24-year-old speedster is still plugging away in triple-A midway through the 2009 season, despite the fact that be performed very well in double-A last year, as well as in the Arizona Fall League. This season, Young has a triple-slash line of .292/.383/.413 in 264 at-bats, along with 43 stolen bases in 51 attempts. The switch-hitter also has a respectable walk rate of 11.1% and has decreased his strikeout rate by three percent over last year to 16.3%.

Currently, the Rockies’ MLB roster boasts three players who are capable of playing second base: Clint Barmes (.275/.322/.470), Omar Quintanilla (.222/.344/.259), and Ian Stewart (.218/.300/.479). Not one member of the trio has played well enough this season to warrant a regular gig. Obviously, Quintanilla would be the easiest player to jettison, while leaving Barmes to back-up the middle infield and Stewart to back-up the infield corners.

Barmes has seen the most playing time at second base this season and he has an OK batting average, but he’s not really providing much else – just slightly above-average power and limited base-stealing skills. Young, on the other hand, could provide some much-needed speed to the Rockies lineup with his ability to steal 40-60 bases over the course of a full season. He also has surprising pop, which could be aided by the Colorado air.

Looking ahead, Barmes will be entering his second year of arbitration eligibility this winter and is already making $1.6 million. Perhaps the Rockies could save some money by flipping Barmes to a contender (like the Mets? Or Cincinnati?) before the trading deadline and receive back a B-level prospect. The worst case scenario would have Young falling flat on his face, which would mean that the club would have to toss $1.5 to $3 million at a veteran second base in the off-season, which be about the same amount it would cost to keep Barmes in the fold for the 2010 season.