Archive for Cliff Pennington

What I love about this series, this look at each team’s depth chart, is that we unearth a number of position battles that might not be on the radar of the casual fantasy player. In this case, the Arizona Diamondbacks, the infield appears to be well set heading into spring training. First, second and third base are locked down; as is behind the plate. But a deeper look brings us to a report on the team’s website that informs us that the starting shortstop job is actually up for grabs. The casual fantasy player will look at the depth chart and assume that Didi Gregorius owns the gig. After all, he’s the big name and didn’t Arizona trade a highly-touted Trevor Bauer to get him? That they did, but according to GM Kevin Towers, spring time for the Diamondbacks will feature an open competition between Gregorius and Chris Owings and the winner gets a place on the field come Opening Day. Read the rest of this entry »

I think everyone is in agreement that shortstop is the [insert name of favorite anorexic celebrity] of positions in fantasy baseball.  Once you get past that 2nd tier, it can really turn into a crapshoot.  So if you’re not going to grab one of the big names out there, then why not do some bargain shopping and bulk up elsewhere.  Here’s a pair of $1 options that may draw some interest… Read the rest of this entry »

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some shortstops.

Derek Jeter
The Captain was drafted pretty high this year, and his production was lacking. He’s going to be 37 next June, so this isn’t the time to own Jeter if you haven’t already.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.340, 10 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Cut. He’s still worthy of a roster spot, but not at his keeper price.

Jimmy Rollins
Rollins is another aging shortstop who has had a bad year, but he’s not as old as Jeter. Rollins will be 32 by the time the 2011 season rolls around, so he’s not at the bottom of the hill quite yet. For the first time in his career, Rollins did not step to the plate at least 625 times due to injury. However, he walked more than he struck out for the first time in his career, and was only thrown out once on the basepaths.
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.335, 12 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Cut. His value will not equal his price.

Starlin Castro
While Castro was a solid performer in real life, his fantasy value was limited by his lack of counting stats. Castro did steal ten bags, but he did that in 18 tries. Plus, his average is going to be a product of his BABIP, which sat around .350 this year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .300/.355, 5 HR, 12 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’s got the ability to rack up counting stats at some point, and he won’t hurt you in the meantime.

Alcides Escobar
Escobar came into 2010 with huge expectations, and fulfilled none of them. But, for the most part, his lack of production wasn’t his fault. The Brewers didn’t give him many chances to run, and his BABIP was absurdly low.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 5 HR, 20 SB
Verdict: Keep. If you reached for him based on upside, you should cut him. But, his market value should be fair enough.

Cliff Pennington
Pennington is a typical Billy Beane player. He keeps the strikeouts to a minimum, plays solid defense, and walks at an average rate. While I thought he’d be a valuable player in real life, I never suspected fantasy success so soon.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.350, 7 HR, 30 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’s been undervalued because of his average, which should change next season.

If you have a shortstop you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

Some people are still fighting in their finals, or trying to squeeze some life out of their last few at-bats, so we’ll do a few last waiver wires. This one is themed by statistical profiles!

Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / Stolen Bases / Runs
There’s no way we can talk about batting average right now and not talk about Mike Aviles (38% owned). Yes, we profiled him just last week, but he’s found that patented Aviles magic once again – his .358 batting average in September is nice. In stretches like this, his low walk rate is a boon: he’s had more at-bats in which to put up those hits, and four multi-hit games in the past week shows it’s working right now. He doesn’t steal many bases, though, so you could also give Cliff Pennington (10% owned) a look in Oakland – he’s getting on base right now and stealing bases to boot. He’s had a nice year, and if he could cut that strikeout rate just a smidgen (19.3% this year, 19.9% career), he might be able to push that batting average up a few points. Franklin Gutierrez is walking a little more in September (5 walks) than he has since his freakish May (20 walks), is playing in a nice park in Texas the next few weeks (against a catcher core that gives up a 67% success rate on stolen bases), and has five stolen bases in his past two weeks. He’s a good shallow league option (26% owned). Ryan Kalish (3% owned) also deserves a mention as the Red Sox fall out of contention, but he’s not quite playing every day, isn’t walking enough just yet (5.6%) and is also batting low in the lineup when he’s in. Finally, deeper leaguers have to look the way of Peter Bourjos (1% owned) for speed and speed alone. He’s still playing most days and he’s swiped four bags in the past two weeks. Beyond improving poor plate discipline stats (3.6% walk rate, 22.4% strikeout rate), Bourjos could also use some regression to the mean in his BABIP (.231). At least he’s gotten on base in five of his last 13 plate appearances and his excellent defense (+36.1 UZR/150!).

Slugging Percentage / Home Runs / RBI
Now we’re looking for boppers. Ty Wigginton (54% owned) is a nice power pickup because he’s playing well and is eligible all over the diamond. The Orioles’ infielder has been wiggin’ out a little at the plate – his strikeout rate climbed almost 7% from last year – but his power is back in line with career norms (.173 ISO, .180 career) and he finishes the year at home, where he has a decent .269/.318/.455 line. He has struggled a little out of the gate, but Pedro Alvarez (19% owned) has been much better in September (.292/.354/.562) and could be your lightning in a bottle – which is, let’s face it, what you are looking for in the final week. The reason we can be excited about this final stretch is that Alvarez has been struggling with the whiff all year (34.9%) but has really cut down on those Ks this month (24.7%), and with nice power already (.200 ISO) and more on the way (.251 ISO in minor leagues), that lower strikeout rate will play just fine. We’ve given Michael Morse (9% owned) a lot of love recently for his power, but he deserves another shout-out here. John Bowker (1% owned) and Lucas Duda (0% owned) are both available in most leagues and could run into some home runs this week as their teams look to next year. Bowker might be the better bet – he’s in his peak years at 27 years old, and has all that minor league promise yet to be tapped into (.198 career minor league ISO, up to .264 over his final two stops). On the other hand, the Bucs draw decent pitching staffs in Florida and St. Louis while the Mets face Milwaukee and Washington over the final week.

Aaron Cunningham, Padres (Owned in 1% of Yahoo leagues)

Cunningham, 24, has been traded as many times (three) as he has gone deep in the major leagues. The Chicago White Sox originally picked the righty batter in the 6th round of the 2005 draft, but swapped him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for INF Danny Richar in June of 2007. The D-Backs then traded Cunningham to the Oakland A’s (along with LHPs Brett Anderson, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland, OF Carlos Gonzalez and 1B/DH Chris Carter) for RHPs Dan Haren and Connor Robertson in December of ’07. This past winter, Oakland sent him to San Diego (with OF Scott Hairston) for 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and INF Eric Sogard.

That lengthy transaction history tells you two things about Cunningham — he’s a potentially useful player, but his talents aren’t so great as to make parting with him unbearable. His career minor league line is .304/.376/.484 in 2,300+ PA, including .296/.366/.475 in 667 PA at the Triple-A level. In the PCL, Cunningham has shown decent power (.179 ISO), but his strike-zone control hasn’t been especially sharp (8.8 BB%, 23.1 K%). Hot start with the Padres aside, his major league projections are tepid — .240/.298/.371 for the rest of 2010 according to ZiPS, and .257/.322/.413 per CHONE. Cunningham has been filling in for Will Venable (on the DL with a back injury), and his strong showing in a few weeks’ worth of games might excite some. But he looks like a fringe starter — the sort of player with whom teams play roster hot potato.

Cliff Pennington, Athletics (17%)

The 2010 season is Pennington’s chance to prove he’s capable of more than merely keeping the shortstop spot warm until Grant Green’s big league-ready. A first-round pick out of Texas A&M in 2005, Pennington pieced together a .263/.362/.358 line in nearly 2,200 minor league plate appearances. The switch-hitter displayed superb plate discipline (13.2 BB%) and he stole bases at a high-percentage clip (83.6%), but his lack of thump (.095 ISO) led to fears that he’d get the bat knocked out of his hands at the highest level.

So far, that hasn’t happened — Pennington’s got a career .325 wOBA and a 101 wRC+ in 672 big league PA. This season, the 26-year-old’s batting .264/.333/.392 and walking 9.4% of the time. Pennington will never be a power threat, but his .128 ISO is respectable. He has also nabbed 13 bags in 15 attempts, so he’s adding value once he reaches base. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .260/.331/.362 line. CHONE is less optimistic, at .246/.328/.344.

It’s probably too early to comment on Pennington’s defensive prowess, as he rates poorly by UZR (-7.5 runs per 150 defensive games during his career) and about average according to Total Zone. He might slide over to second long-term, where he’d still have to compete with Jemile Weeks (if Weeks can stay healthy), among others. But for now, Pennington’s good eye and speed make him an option in AL-only leagues.

It’s now summer by the American social clock (if not by the solstice calendar), and so you should be furiously checking your wire for injury replacements. It’s even time to start considering if a struggling player is ready to be dropped. We’re here to help.

Brett Myers, Astros (10% owned)
Myers is a flawed pitcher. He may never again reach the strikeout-per-inning numbers of his early career, and he’s lost some velocity off of those days as well. The good news is that the fastball was never his best pitch – in fact, it’s never even been a good pitch (-89.6 runs career, and never once positive by linear weights). He’s still got his nice curveball and slider, and he’s actually snapping that slider at a career pace (32% this year, 9.6% career). This will count as good news because not only is the pitch his best this year (+6.6 runs), but it’s also been his best non-curveball pitch in his career. If this ‘new’ Myers can stay healthy, he seems likely to continue to pitch to the talent level indicated by his 3.89 FIP. Flawed, but helpful in deep leagues. When his .324 BABIP comes down a little bit, his poor WHIP might even improve.

Cliff Pennington, Athletics (11% owned)
Here’s another flawed player for your pleasure. In fact, it’s possible he’s over-owned for a shortstop with an underwhelming .209/.291/.322 line. Of course, his BABIP is .245 and should rise, especially since he’s relatively fleet of foot (5.6 career speed score, six stolen bases this year). In other good news, his contact rates are all up across the board, and his zone contact rate (93.4%) is actually okay. His good line drive rate (21.4%) suggests that he may even be able to better his ZiPs RoS (.250/.324/.348) and break 20 steals overall. If someone in your AL-only league dropped him, he can give you a little something from here on out. Just a little.

Jerry Hairston Jr, Padres (5% owned)
Boy, hit one grand slam and suddenly you’re on waiver lists, eh? Of all the numbers that we may cite about Hairston, however, there is one that is the most important once you get into deep enough leagues: seven. As in, Hairston has started seven straight games for the Padres. This, despite Everth Cabrera’s return from the disabled list. Hairston’s defense is scratch at best (-7.9 UZR/150 in 109 career games at the position), but right now his offense is perculating (10 for his last 26) and the team is winning. And anyway, it’s not like Cabrera was a whiz with the glove anyway (-11 UZR/150 in 127 games at the position). The Padres might best be served being honest about the talent level on their team, and going with the guy that could provide more value for longer in Cabrera, but that’s an argument for another space.

All ownership numbers courtesy of Yahoo Fantasy Sports