Archive for Clayton Richard

Las Vegas seems to think that 2016 might just be the year when Cubs fans finally celebrate a World Series win in the streets of Wrigleyville. Stacked with a potent lineup from top to bottom and arguably the best starting five in baseball, Theo Epstein’s deity status could extend westward some 850 miles come October. But while there’s no position battle in the rotation to speak of, injury concerns, like curses, are real something to write about.

John Lackey joins Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, and Jason Hammel in a formidable rotation that ZiPs projects for nearly 17 WAR. But they also enter 2016 having pitched a combined 6,674.1 career innings. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at who stands to step in should any of the Cubs’, let’s go with, seasoned starters miss some time.

Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 21.

R.A. Dickey – It’s been a great season overall for the 35-year-old Dickey but he has been outstanding in Citi Field, where he has a 5-1 record with a 1.22 ERA. With two home starts this week, Dickey should be in everyone’s lineup.

Jason Hammel – Since July 16th, Hammel is 1-4 with a 4.89 ERA. But six of those seven starts have come on the road. In Coors Field this year, Hammel is 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA. With two home starts this week, look for Hammel to get back in the win column.

Hiroki Kuroda – The past two months, Kuroda is 1-6. Since coming to this country in 2008, Kuroda has posted lower-than-average HR/FB rates. But in his last few starts, he has allowed 3 HR in 25 IP. This week he has road starts in Milwaukee and Colorado, two of the three best HR parks in the National League. Put Kuroda on the bench this week.

Colby Lewis – In his last six starts, Lewis is 0-5 yet his ERA has dropped five points to 3.37 for the season. He gets two home starts this week, where he is 5-3 with a 2.95 ERA for the year. Look for Lewis to pick up at least one win this week and make sure he is in your lineup.

Clayton Richard – He has been piling up victories recently despite not pitching all that well. But his last four starts have all been on the road. Richard gets two home starts this week and the friendly confines of Petco should help out. Richard should be in your active roster.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 21 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Wainwright, J. Johnson, T. Hudson, Hamels, Cain, Liriano, Pavano, Floyd, Lackey, E. Santana, Myers, Morrow, Shields, Volquez, G. Gonzalez, Carmona, L. Hernandez, Kazmir, Blanton, Guthrie, Norris, Porcello, Bonderman, Fister, Harden, Moseley, Ohlendorf, Bush, Lannan, Chen, Rzepczynski, R. Lopez, Lohse, Coleman.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 19 pitchers and how they fared.

Hughes – Advised to start. W, 3.75 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.417 WHIP (2 starts)
Leake – Advised to sit. W, 8.38 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.862 WHIP (2)
Mazzaro – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.308 WHIP (2)
Padilla – Advised to start. W, 11.57 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.929 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to sit. W, 1.93 ERA, 5 Ks, 0.857 WHIP (2)

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Carlos Lee – In his first 44 games, Lee was absolutelIn his first 44 games, Lee was absolutely dreadful. He was hitting for neither AVG (.192) nor power (5 HR in 167 ABs). But in the last two weeks, Lee has broke out of his slump in a big way and is batting .340 with 12 RBIs in 13 games. ZiPS (R) sees a .280 AVG with 15 HR and 62 RBIs the rest of the way and that might be selling him short. There is still a lot of room for growth with his BABIP (.227) and even with the awful start, when he did not hit a HR in April, his HR/FB rate is at 9.2 percent.

Ted Lilly – He got off to a late start to the season and then got knocked around in both his second and third outings of the year. But in his last six starts, Lilly has been as good as ever, even though his 0-3 mark in that frame does not show it. Lilly has recorded a Quality Start in each of those past six outings and has a 2.49 ERA over 43.1 IP. With a 4.62 xFIP, Lilly’s current owner may be in a mood to sell. Most of that number comes about because of a decrease in Ks and an increase in BB. But Lilly has picked up the pace with his strikeouts and in his last outing he did not walk a batter in 8 IP.

Clayton Richard – It is easy to see a Padres pitcher with a low ERA and an xFIP one and a quarter runs higher and make the conclusion that he is succeeding thanks to Petco Park. But Richard has pitched just as well on the road so far this season and his ERA was consistent in both April (3.00) and May (3.00). Richard has shaved nearly a full walk off his BB/9 from a year ago while his K/9 has remained steady. Some will point to his 81.0 LOB% as the main reason for his success. But Richard gets grounders, has a low LD% (16.7) and his O-Swing% is up to 28.5 percent. And he helps himself by having one of the toughest pickoff moves in the game.

SELL

Adam Dunn – One of the three true outcome kings, Dunn is walking less and hitting fewer HR this year. But the most surprising thing is his .280 AVG, which would easily be a career high. Of course, that comes with a .362 BABIP, which eclipses last year’s personal-best .324 mark. The additional base hits have Dunn just as valuable as ever with a .396 wOBA. But his fantasy value will fall when the AVG drops and unlike past years, Dunn will not prop it up with 40-HR power.

Derek Lowe – Great run support, especially early in the year, has helped Lowe to 8 W so far this season. But the rest of his fantasy numbers are underwhelming. His ERA is 5.04, his WHIP of 1.45 is just barely better than last year’s disappointing number and his K/9 of 5.28 is below-average. Lowe did real off wins in three straight outings before getting roughed up in his last start. His FIP and xFIP are three quarters of a run better than his ERA. See if that or his win total or his reputation can get someone to bite on him and take him off your hands. The slider which was such an effective pitch for Lowe while he was with the Dodgers is now a below-average offering.

Jon Rauch – After getting quality fantasy numbers from Rauch for two months, the time has come to try and sell high on Rauch and his 15 Saves. The 6-11 Rauch has done an admirable job filling in for Joe Nathan. But his WHIP is nothing special, he no longer is a big strikeout pitcher and his ERA is being propped up by a 5.9 HR/FB rate. Rauch has yet to give up a HR in 13 road innings and has allowed just 2 HR at home despite a 63.6 FB% in Target Field.

HUNCH

Troy Glaus – In the seven seasons prior to 2010, Glaus played in 115 games or fewer four times, including last year when he appeared in just 14 games and had only 29 ABs. But when healthy, Glaus has delivered consistent numbers, as good or better than the .377 OBP and .480 SLG he holds currently. Playing time is the big concern with Glaus, but he has already exceeded the amount of action he saw in two of his four injured seasons. I like Glaus’ chances to stay healthy and appear in 140 or more games this season and top his ZiPS (U) line of .271-22-92-64-1.

Here on Wednesday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Tuesday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Charlie Morton (5%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Lilly. Morton has lost three of his last four decisions and has a 5.04 ERA in that stretch. This year on the road he is 1-5 with a 7.45 ERA in 38.2 IP. Morton is 0-1 against the Cubs this year and he allowed 10 runs in 1 IP in his only start against Chicago.

Carlos Torres (2%) – Has a road start in Cleveland versus Carmona in a makeup of yesterday’s rainout. See Tuesday’s free agent column for more on Torres.

Tim Redding (4%) – Has road start in Washington versus Lannan. In his last seven starts Redding has a 3.19 ERA and a 1.157 WHIP over 42.1 IP. He is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in road starts this year and in two starts against the Nationals is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA.

John Lannan (36%) – Has home start versus Redding and the Mets. In his last nine starts, Lannan is 1-5 with a 5.51 ERA. He is 5-3 with a 2.62 ERA in home starts this season and is 2-2 with a 2.40 ERA in four games against New York.

Eddie Bonine (1%) – Has a home start against Pavano and the Twins. The 28-year old has appeared in nine games for Detroit this season and made three starts. His last outing he allowed two unearned runs in 6.2 IP versus the White Sox. Bonine throws a fastball, slider and change and rounds out his repertoire with an occasional knuckleball.

Robinson Tejeda (25%) – Has a road start in New York versus Chamberlain. Had been pitching brilliantly since move to the rotation until allowing 5 ER in 4.1 IP in his last start. Still, he is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA in five games as a starter. Tejeda has a great fastball, which has led to a 10.75 K/9 mark. However, he has been done in by lousy control. Tejeda has a 6.16 BB/9 ratio and he allowed seven walks in his last outing.

Brian Moehler (6%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia versus Martinez. Despite a 4.88 ERA in his last six starts, Moehler has pitched well in that span. Only a seven-run outing in less than three innings in his last start has dragged down his numbers in that span. Moehler is 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA in road games this season. He came away with a no-decision in his only outing against the Phillies this year after allowing 3 ER in 5.2 IP.

David Hernandez (5%) – Has a road start in Tampa Bay versus Shields. In his last eight games, Hernandez is 0-5 with a 7.34 ERA. This year he is 2-5 with a 5.11 ERA in road games. In his only game against the Rays, Hernandez allowed 5 ER in 3 IP and took the loss.

Justin Masterson (34%) – Has a home start against Buehrle and the White Sox after getting rained out yesterday. See Tuesday’s free agent pitchers for more on Masterson.

Jeff Karstens (1%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Zambrano. After starting the season in the rotation, Karstens moved to the bullpen for 26 games before making a start in his last outing on 9/25. Overall, he is 2-3 with a 5.19 ERA in 11 starts. Karstens has pitched two innings versus the Cubs this season and has allowed two earned runs.

Jeff Suppan (9%) – Has a road start in Colorado versus Hammel. In his last four starts, Suppan is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and has allowed 4 HR in 23.1 IP. He is 4-3 with a 3.56 ERA in road starts this year. This will be Suppan’s first start against the Rockies this season.

Jason Hammel (41%) – Has a home start versus Suppan and the Brewers. In his last 11 starts, Hammel is 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA with 52 Ks in 67.1 IP. Early in the year Hammel had trouble in Coors Field, but he has notched a Quality Start in three of his last four home games. Overall, Hammel is 2-3 with a 5.63 ERA in home games. He is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA this year versus Milwaukee.

Derek Holland (37%) – Has a road start in Anaheim versus Weaver. Holland snapped a five-start losing streak in his last outing, when he allowed three runs in five innings and picked up a win versus the Rays. He is 2-5 with a 4.91 ERA in road games this year. In four games against the Angels, Holland is 2-1 with a 5.12 ERA. Keep in mind that the Angels have clinched and they may not have all of their regulars in the lineup.

Clayton Richard (29%) – Has a home game versus Garland and the Dodgers. In his last five games, Richard has a 3.90 ERA and a 1-1 record. Since being acquired in a trade from the White Sox, Richard is 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA in Petco Park. He has faced the Dodgers once this year and allowed 4 ER in 4.1 IP.

Clayton Mortensen (1%) – Has a road start in Seattle versus Morrow. Acquired from the Cardinals in the Holliday deal, Mortensen has one Quality Start in five games for Oakland. He has a nice 1.93 GB/FB ratio but has been unable to get many strikeouts (3.94 K/9) and has struggled with the gopher ball, as he has allowed 5 HR in 29.2 IP.

Brandon Morrow (28%) – Has a home game versus Mortensen and the A’s. Morrow has made three starts since being recalled from the minors and is 1-0 with a 4.02 ERA. However, he has allowed 11 BB in 15.2 innings over those three outings.

Kevin Mulvey (1%) – Has a road start in San Francisco against Penny. Mulvey has appeared in five games since being acquired on waivers from Minnesota, and has made three starts. In his last outing, he notched a Quality Start, as he allowed 3 ER in 6 IP in a home loss against the Giants.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 23.

Homer Bailey – The overall numbers this year are underwhelming for Bailey but in his last three starts he is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 19 Ks in 21.1 IP. He is consistently in the mid-90s with his fastball and can dial it up to 98. The gopher ball is still a problem, he gave up two in his last start, and he does have a road start this week in Coors. Still, I like him this week as a two-start pitcher.

Garrett Mock – In the last 24 games of August, the Nationals were 8-16. In that same time span, Mock was 3-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 32 SO in 28.2 IP. Walks have been a problem for Mock, but his FIP is still nearly a run lower than his ERA. Get him into your lineup this week, even with a tough matchup against the Phillies.

Clayton Richard – Fantasy owners have really been hesitant to pick up Richard since his move to the NL, despite a 4-1 record with the Padres. He is 3-0 at home and gets one of his two starts this week at Petco. Since his road start is at San Francisco, I think he is a good two-start pitcher this week.

Ricky Romero – It has been a very successful rookie season for Romero, but the lefty has been hitting the wall lately. In his last six starts, Romero is 1-3 with a 6.32 ERA and a 1.851 WHIP. He catches a break by not going up against any AL East teams this week, still I think it is good to give him a break and not suffer two starts equal to what he has posted recently.

Andy Sonnanstine – One year after pitching in the World Series, it has been a disappointing season for Sonnanstine. He was unimpressive in the beginning of the season and was sent back to the minors. Sonnanstine posted a 4.40 ERA in nine games at Triple-A Durham and then made it back to Tampa Bay after the Kazmir deal. And his first start back was more of the same as he fell to 6-8. This week he has road starts at the New York and at Boston. Keep him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 23 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, F. Hernandez, Carpenter, Vazquez, Jimenez, Beckett, Happ, Lilly, Marquis, Kazmir, E. Santana, Garza, Scherzer, Buehrle, P. Martinez, Buchholz, Porcello, Penny, Richmond, Correia, Duensing, Bannister, Nippert, Lehr, Davies, Bush, Moehler, VandenHurk, Redding, Manship, Misch, Paulino.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 21 and how they did.

Arroyo – Advised to start. 1.88 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.05 WHIP (2 starts)
Buchholz – Advised to start. W, 5.54 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.08 WHIP (2)
Millwood – Advised to sit. W, 5.40 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.71 WHIP (2)
Niemann – Advised to sit. W, 4.72 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.20 WHIP (2)
Rowland-Smith – Advised to start. 3.14 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.05 WHIP (2)

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 22.

Trevor Cahill – In his last four starts, Cahill has a 2.33 ERA and a 1.037 WHIP. He is not a strikeout threat but could help in the other three categories this week. Cahill has two home starts and he has notched five of his seven wins this season at McAfee Coliseum.

Clayton Richard – His ERA is a disappointing 5.22 since being traded to the National League but he has had just one bad outing in five games for the Padres and carries a 3-1 record. Uncharacteristically, it has been poor control doing him in, as he has allowed 20 BB in 29.1 innings for San Diego. Still, I like him this week in a home start against Washington and a road matchup against the Dodgers and Vicente Padilla.

Jonathan Sanchez – There is a lot of pitching talent here, as the strikeouts and the no-hitter will attest. But he is 2-8 with a 4.81 ERA on the road this season and he has starts this week at Philadelphia and at Milwaukee, against two potent offenses. If you have the pitching depth, see if you can bench Sanchez this week.

Tim Wakefield – In his first start back from the disabled list, Wakefield got a no-decision despite a strong outing. He allowed just one run in seven innings against the White Sox. This week, Wakefield has two road starts, including a return engagement against the Chi Sox. I dislike return matchups against a team a pitcher just handled, so I would keep Wakefield on the bench this week.

Jarrod Washburn – In five starts for the Tigers, Washburn has one good outing, one okay performance and has been hit hard the other three times. He has a home-and-home matchup against the Rays and I expect at least one outing for the Rays to have their way with the veteran lefty. Keep Washburn on the bench this week if possible.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 22 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Vazquez, J. Johnson, Burnett, Harden, Hammels, Oswalt, Jackson, Floyd, Wolf, Shields, Pineiro, Wells, Danks, Pettitte, Holland, Pelfrey, Saudners, D. Davis, A. Sanchez, G. Gonzalez, Maholm, Looper, Hochevar, Guthrie, Padilla, Rzepczynski, Fister, Hudson, L. Hernandez, Nippert, Petit, French, Cecil, Tallet, Lehr, Stauffer, Huff, Fogg, Gabino, Wells.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 20 and how they did.

Carmona – Advised to sit. W, 3.00 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.50 WHIP (2 starts)
Parra – Advised to sit. 7.71 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.93 WHIP (2)
Perez – Advised to start. W, 15.88 ERA, 4 Ks, 2.12 WHIP (2)
Price – Advised to start. W, 3.75 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (2 starts)
Richmond – Advised to start. 5.14 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.29 WHIP (1)

Here is the latest update to Week 19 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

LAD – Wolf
LAD – Kuroda
OAK – G. Gonzalez
SD – Richard
OAK – Cahill
BOS – Tazawa
TEX – Nippert

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

COL – Cook
OAK – Braden
BOS – Smoltz
LAD – Schmidt
SD – Gaudin
TEX – Padilla
SEA – J. Vargas
STL – Boggs

Wolf had a streak of seven consecutive Quality Starts snapped in his last outing, when he allowed four runs in seven innings pitched. Over those last eight games, Wolf has a 3.38 ERA with a 3-to-1 SO/BB ratio and a 1.204 WHIP but he has just a 2-3 record. Wolf has two road starts this week, where he has an ERA a full run lower than he does at Chavez Ravine. His problem in home games is the gopher ball. Wolf has allowed 12 HR in 76 IP at home compared to 6 HR in 71 IP on the road.

Kuroda won his first game in a month his last time out. In his last three outings, Kuroda has 21 Ks in 18 IP. He has been a little unlucky this year with a 62.5 percent strand rate. Kuroda’s FIP checks in at 3.36 compared to a 4.44 ERA.

Gonzalez gave up 11 runs in 2.2 innings on July 20th. In three outings since then he is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and a 1.071 WHIP. Included in those last three games were matchups in New York and Boston.

Richard has a 3.95 BB/9 ratio for the season. But in his last nine starts he has allowed 17 BB in 45.1 innings. Pitch Type Values shows Richard’s fastball being a good pitch but that he gets in trouble with his slider and his cutter.

Cahill has allowed a HR in nine consecutive starts. He has given up 15 homers in that stretch, including two in each of his last two outings. His HR/FB ratio of 16.6 is the fourth highest mark among pitchers who qualify.

Tazawa made his major league debut and took the loss in the 15-inning game last Friday against the Red Sox. Tazawa was 9-5 in Double-A and 0-2 in Triple-A this year, albeit with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.706 WHIP in those two contests.

Nippert has bounced back-and-forth between the bullpen and the rotation this year for the Rangers. In his last outing, a start, he allowed just one hit in five innings and now seems poised for an extended trial as a starter. Nippert averages nearly 93 miles per hour with his fastball and he also throws a change-up and an occasional curve.

The deadline to make fantasy trades either has already happened or is just around the corner, depending upon your league rules. If your league still permits trading, start working the phones and see what you can do. In that regard, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Alex Rodriguez – A lot of owners are worried about Rodriguez’ relative lack of power this season, especially given the way new Yankee Stadium has played. Rodriguez has not hit a HR since July 19th and 13 of his 19 HR this year have come at home. But his HR/FB rate is better than it was last season and Rodriguez is unlikely to maintain a .263 BABIP going forward.

Clayton Richard – In his second season with the White Sox, Richard held his own. He posted an ERA just slightly above league average and his K/9 of 6.67 was good. Now he finds himself pitching in the NL without a designated hitter and he goes from pitching in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field to Petco Park, one of the best pitching parks in baseball. It should add up to make him a valuable fantasy pitcher for the rest of 2009.

Alex Rios – The expectations for Rios always seem to exceed the actual production. Some hoped he would threaten 30-30 while batting close to .300 and it just has not worked out that way. But Rios is on target to exceed last year’s HR and RBI totals while coming close to his career-best steal output. His BABIP is 30 points below his career mark and RoS ZiPS forecasts him to hit .282 for the remainder of the season.

Jeff Niemann – There is nothing in Niemann’s overall profile to recommend acquiring him, while his FIP and HR/FB ratio might even suggest him as a sell candidate. But since the middle of May, Niemann has been a steady and consistent fantasy hurler. In his last 14 games, Niemann is 8-2 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.197 WHIP. Niemann has started throwing more curveballs, giving batters another pitch to consider.

Lastings Milledge – Many fantasy owners expected Milledge to have a breakout season in 2009 and that just has not happened. But the trade to Pittsburgh offers him a new start and he has two things in his favor now that he did not have earlier in Washington. First, Milledge is not a leadoff hitter and with Andrew McCutchen around to fill that bill for the Pirates, it frees Milledge to bat lower in the order. And while it does not appear on the surface to matter in fantasy, McCutchen also allows Milledge to play an outfield corner in Pittsburgh, where he is much more suited defensively. Milledge is only owned in 23 percent of CBS Sports leagues and is worth a flier if he is available on your waiver wire.

Exchange

Aramis Ramirez – Fantasy owners have been without Ramirez for most of the year, so it seems an odd time to be shopping him now. Since returning from the DL, Ramirez has posted a .321-5-17-15-0 fantasy line in 21 games. But Ramirez also has a .353 BA BIP, 58 points above his career average. And his HR/FB rate of 16.4 percent is his highest since 2005.

Joba Chamberlain – He has been lights out in his last three starts, offering fantasy owners the production they dreamed about when they selected him in the top half of their draft. But while he is doing his best pitching of the season, word is that the Yankees are going to cap his innings somewhere around 160 innings this season. Now, when push comes to shove, New York may not go through with that plan but Chamberlain owners owe it to themselves to see if they can trade him for equivalent value and minimize their risk going forward.

Alex Gordon – After spending most of the season on the DL with a hip injury, Gordon is back for the Royals. His first two weeks back have been nothing special. Like Rios, expectations for Gordon always seem to outstrip his production but Gordon is unlikely to offer the upside of Rios in any single fantasy category for the rest of the season.

Jarrod Washburn – He was exceeding all expectations this season in Seattle and now he has to keep that performance up in the heat of a pennant race in Detroit. Washburn has been through the playoff chase numerous times before while with the Angels but owners should be wary of how he will do moving away from Safeco Park and the vaunted Mariners defense. And for what it is worth, Washburn has a lifetime 5.33 ERA in eight starts in Comerica Park.

James Loney – In his last 14 games, Loney is batting .397 with 14 RBIs. But even in this hot streak, Loney has zero HR. Loney’s HR/FB rate checks in at a dismal 5.4 percent and in order to be a valuable corner infielder in fantasy, Loney will need a much higher AVG than his .293 mark this season with such puny HR production.

With Javier Vazquez now residing in Atlanta and Jose Contreras (achilles) likely on the shelf for at least the first half of the season, the Chicago White Sox entered the winter looking to fill two spots in the club’s rotation. One of those openings will at least temporarily be occupied by oft-injured Bartolo Colon, but the competition for the fifth slot remains wide open. Over the next few days, I am going to take a look at the candidates for the job: Clayton Richard, Jeffrey Marquez, Lance Broadway and Aaron Poreda.

Clayton Richard, LHP
Age: 25
2009 CHONE Projection: 140 IP, 4.86 FIP, 4.95 K/9, 2.96 BB/9
2009 PECOTA Projection: 110 IP, 6.13 ERA, 4.33 K/9, 3.27 BB/9

An 8th-round pick out of Michigan in the 2005 amateur draft, Richard was a relative unknown entering the 2008 season. The 6-5, 240 pounder was coming off of a fairly mundane 2007 campaign at High-A Winston-Salem, striking out just 5.52 batters per nine innings and allowing 3.29 BB/9 in 161.1 IP. His FIP was a shrug-inducing 4.05, though he did at least keep the ball in the dirt with a 57.3 GB%. That performance did not earn Richard a spot in Baseball America’s top 30 White Sox prospects, as BA likely viewed him as an aged college prospect who merely held his head above water in A-Ball.

In 2008, however, Richard passed through AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte on his way to the majors. In 83.2 frames at Birmingham, Richard compiled a 2.96 FIP, with 5.7 K’s per nine, an improved walk rate (1.72 BB/9) and just 0.22 HR/9 surrendered. Bumped up to Charlotte, the southpaw posted rates of 6.75 K/9 and 0.82 BB/9 in 44 innings, good for a 2.93 FIP.

Richard made his debut with the South Siders in late July, and while his ERA (6.04) looks pretty grisly, the underlying numbers weren’t too shabby. In 47.2 IP, Richard posted a 4.10 FIP, punching out 5.48 batters per nine innings and walking 2.45 per nine. The former Wolverine used his 90 MPH sinker, 80 MPH slider and 81 MPH changeup to burn some worms, posting a 49.7 GB%. For his work, Richard was dubbed by BA as the 5th-best Pale Hose Prospect this offseason.

It’s difficult to get too awfully excited about a hurler like Richard, who misses few bats but attempts to off-set that tendency with above-average control and groundball tendencies. There are many pitchers of this ilk floating around major league baseball, some of whom will become successful starters while others will never quite translate their minor league success to the highest level.

Owners in most leagues will probably want to avoid drafting Richard, as his upside is fairly modest. CHONE’s projection suggests that Richard will at least hold his head above water in ’09, while PECOTA’s translation has “KEEP AWAY” written in bold, red ink. It remains to be seen whether the lefty’s sinker and savvy will be enough to stave off big league hitters every fifth day, but Richard has at least improved his standing in the organization enough to possibly get the chance.