Archive for Clay Buchholz

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Eight.

Scott Baker – Despite recently touting Baker as an acquisition target, I think he is someone to keep on the bench this week if at all possible. Baker’s struggles are partly due to a high BABIP and this week he faces the Yankees and the Rangers, two of the three best average-hitting teams in the league. I expect regression to take place eventually, just not this week.

Clay Buchholz – He has won four of his past five decisions. Buchholz is outpitching his peripherals, mainly due to a 4.5 HR/FB rate. He squares off this week against the Rays and the Royals, two teams that are below average in the AL in HR. So, ride the hot hand in Buchholz and make sure he is active this week.

Aaron Harang – After getting off to an 0-3 start with an 8.31 ERA, Harang has pitched much better in his past five games. In that time span he has 5 BB and 30 Ks in 30.2 IP. But his ERA is 4.40, due to 4 HR and a .311 average-against. This week Harang faces the Pirates and Astros, who are the bottom two teams in both AVG and HR. Look for Harang to put up Quality Starts and make sure he is in your lineup.

Livan Hernandez – Dave Cameron called him the luckiest man alive earlier this week but the clock is ready to strike midnight for Hernandez. He allowed 11 hits and 8 line drives in his past 12.1 IP, compared to 20 H and 12 LD in his previous 27.1 IP. While he faces two teams that will not be confused for offensive powerhouses in San Francisco and San Diego, Hernandez has to make both of them on the road. We all know the crash is coming and I say it happens this week. Sell him if you can, bench him if you cannot.

Mike Leake – Like Harang, Leake gets home starts against PIT and HOU this week. He has hurled five straight Quality Starts and has gotten his BB trouble from earlier in the season under control. After allowing 12 BB in his first 13.2 IP, Leake has given up just 9 BB in his last 39 IP. He has outpitched his peripherals this year, but if Leake can keep the ball in the park, he has a good shot to keep his QS streak intact.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Eight are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lester, Danks, Peavy, Shields, Burnett, J. Garcia, Braden, I. Kennedy, Wolf, Davis, Garland, Saunders, A. Sanchez, Chacin, Cecil, Moyer, Gorzelanny, Masterson, Guthrie, Maholm, Meche, Wellemeyer, Paulino, Kawakami, Ortiz, Burress, Dickey.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Six pitchers and how they fared.

Cook – Advised to sit. 3 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.667 WHIP (1 start)
LeBlanc – Advised to sit. 7 Ks, 2.31 ERA, 1.286 WHIP (2)
Maine – Advised to start. 10 Ks, 6.55 ERA, 2.091 WHIP (2)
Olsen – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 2.25 ERA, 1.333 WHIP (2)
Westbrook – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.20 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.133 WHIP (2)

A few days ago, I highlighted some former top position prospects who once graced magazine covers and had fantasy players’ hearts aflutter, but have since fallen out of favor. Today, let’s do the same with starting pitchers. Here’s the Fallen Prospect Starting Rotation.

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox

CHONE: 151 IP, 7.33 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 1.07 HR/9, 4.27 FIP

When a much-discussed hurler gets the big league call and chucks a no-hitter in his second start, expectations can become so enormous that anything short of that pitcher becoming a Roger Clemens/Nolan Ryan love child seems like a let-down.

Buchholz, who turned 25 last August, has logged 190.2 innings in the majors from 2007-2009, with a 4.91 ERA. That screams mediocrity. But his peripherals are more promising. The 6-3 right-hander has struck out 7.65 batters per nine innings, while posting a 49.9 percent groundball rate. His control hasn’t been precise (4.11 BB/9), but Buchholz has a more palatable 4.13 expected fielding independent ERA (xFIP). Buchholz has performed like an above-average starter, but a .317 BABIP and a near 14 percent home run per fly ball rate have obscured his quality work.

Known for his diverse arsenal of pitches, Buchholz has succeeded in the majors with his slider (+2.30 runs per 100 pitches), curveball (+0.52) and changeup (+0.42). His fastball, on the other hand, has been more than a run below average (-1.04).

However, his heater velocity did perk up in 2009. In 2008, Buchholz threw his fastball for a strike 61.8 percent of the time. In ‘09, his fastball was thrown for a strike 65.9 percent. His ceiling is still wicked high.

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds

CHONE: 158 IP, 7.35 K/9, 3.87 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 4.66 FIP

The seventh pick in the 2004 draft won’t turn 24 until May, but his odyssey in pro ball has taken him from uber-prospect to perceived bust to promising, if unpolished starter. Bailey was beaten badly during his first two stints in the big leagues (5.59 xFIP in 2007 and a 5.16 xFIP in 2008). But in 2009, he turned in a quality season at the Triple-A level (89.2 IP, 8.23 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 3.86 FIP) and pitched at a league-average level (4.58 xFIP) in the majors.

Bailey has a four-pitch mix, including a mid-80’s slider/cutter, high-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup, but he chooses to fire his fastball well over 70 percent of the time. Like Buchholz, Bailey got some extra oomph on his fastball this past year, sitting 94-95 MPH instead of 91-92 MPH like in ’07 and ’08. He’s basically an average starter right now, with the upside for more than that if he makes gains with his control and secondary stuff.

Sean Gallagher, San Diego Padres

CHONE: 102 IP, 8.12 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9, 3.91 FIP

A former Cub and Athletic picked up by the Padres last July, Gallagher scarcely pitched in 2009 after suffering a left knee injury. In 2008, though, the right-hander used his low-90’s gas, hard slider and slow curve to punch out 8.04 batters per nine innings in 115.1 IP with Chicago and Oakland. He does lose the strike zone often (career 4.93 BB/9), and lets hitters loft the ball frequently (35.8 GB%).

Gallagher will need to stop being so generous with the walks, but Petco Park should help mitigate those extreme fly ball proclivities, should they persist (his near-50 percent groundball rate in the minors suggests that his GB/FB split might not be that pronounced moving forward).

The 24 year-old is not currently penciled in to San Diego’s rotation. However, with Chris Young’s recent ailments, concerns over Mat Latos‘ workload and the checkered health history of Tim Stauffer, the out-of-options Gallagher figures to get a shot at some point.

Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays

Bill James (CHONE’s projection for Morrow comes in relief): 135 IP, 8.73 K/9, 5.27 BB/9, 0.87 HR/9, 4.34 FIP

Swapped from the Mariners to the Jays over the winter, Morrow has seen his development derailed by injuries, being shoved into the major league bullpen and indecision over his role: starter or closer, that is the question.

Toronto has spared us from any more rumination: Morrow, 25, will be a starter with his new organization. His ability to miss bats is unquestioned, but the former Cal star has to hone his control and prove durable (forearm and shoulder injuries have plagued him) if he hopes to become more than a hard-throwing curiosity.

Don’t be surprised if there are bumps along the way. Because Seattle’s former regime allowed Morrow to throw reallyrealyreally hard in the general direction of home plate out of the ‘pen, instead of building stamina and improving his breaking stuff as a minor league starter, the 6-3 righty remains green as grass.

Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks

CHONE: 94 IP, 8.33 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, 4.20 FIP

A USC Trojan who terrorized minor league batters (9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9), Kennedy scuffled in limited time with the Yankees (5.84 xFIP in 59.2 IP) and was sent to Arizona as part of a three-team deal during the offseason. Kennedy’s ’09 season was quashed by surgery to repair an aneurysm under his right armpit.

A 6-0, 195 pound righty who relies far more on command than sizzling stuff, Kennedy sits 89-91 with his fastball and backs it up with a slider, curve and changeup. His Major League Equivalencies in 2007 (4.34 FIP) and 2008 (3.34 FIP) suggest that he could be a nifty back-end starter.

But, Kennedy faces a daunting task with the D-Backs. He’s a fly ball pitcher (career 39.7 GB% in the minors) headed to a park that, according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, has increased run production by 15 percent and homers by seven percent compared to a neutral park over the past three years.

Stock Up

Chris Coghlan, Marlins

Talk about a seamless transition to the majors. Often lost in the imposing shadows of top-tier prospects like Cameron Maybin, Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison, Coghlan has posted a robust .365 wOBA with the Fish in 2009.

The 2006 supplemental first-rounder out of Mississippi displayed exceptional control of the strike zone in the minors (11.8 BB%, 11.3 K%), and that firm grasp of the zone has been on display during Coghlan’s rookie year. The 24 year-old has walked 10.5% of the time while whiffing 16.6%, offering at just 20% of pitches thrown off the plate (25% MLB average).

Primarily a second baseman in the minor leagues, Coghlan has not made an especially smooth shift to left field (-13.8 UZR/150). It remains to be seen where he lines up in the long term (will Florida hold on to Dan Uggla?), but his bat is about as polished possible for a rookie.

Brad Penny, Giants

While in Boston, Penny was drubbed for a 5.61 ERA. However, his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) of 4.48 suggested that he was basically a league-average starter. Penny punched out 6.08 batters per nine frames with the Red Sox, while issuing 2.87 BB/9. His BABIP was a lofty .336.

Since signing with San Francisco, the 31 year-old righty has allowed 4 runs in 22 IP, punching out 10 and walking four. Penny is neither the punching bag that his Boston stint would suggest, nor is he suddenly an ace with the Giants. He’s a quality mid-rotation option.

Boston possesses decision-makers far smarter than I. But, it’s hard not to feel as through the normally thorough, pragmatic organization made a couple of knee-jerk reactions in discarding Penny and John Smoltz.

That’s not hindsight bias; there were indicators suggesting that both still possessed the skills to retire hitters at the highest level. While it likely won’t have any consequence on the club’s playoff chances (in excess of 96% at the moment), Boston would probably rather not be left hoping that Paul Byrd can party like it’s 2002 or that Daisuke Matsuzaka can, you know, throw a strike.

Michael Brantley, Indians

Grady Sizemore is done for the season. That’s a downer for any baseball fan, but at least we get to take an extended look at the PTBNL in the 2008 Sabathia Swap.

Brantley, 22 is a patient lefty hitter with serious wheels. His .267/.350/.361 line at AAA Columbus does not jump off the page, but Brantley worked the count well (11.4 BB%, 10.5 K%) while swiping many bags at a high-percentage clip (46 SB in 51 attempts, good for a 90.2% success rate).

Brantley doesn’t any lightning in his lumber (.094 ISO in 2009, .069 ISO in his minor league career), and he’ll have to establish himself in a corner spot with Cleveland. But fantasy owners searching for steals, without wanting to settle on some Willy Taveras-like out-machine, could do worse than Brantley.

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox

For a 25 year-old with a career 4.24 FIP in the major leagues, Buchholz sure has been subject of many “what’s wrong with him?” debates. The lanky 6-3 right-hander boasts a wicked mid-70’s curve (+0.62 runs/100 pitches career) and a low-80’s changeup (+1.03), as well as a nifty mid-80’s slider (+1.50). Buchholz’s 92-94 MPH fastball, however, has often missed the mark (-1.11).

In 2008, Buchholz called upon his heater just 47.4% of the time. He seems to be gaining trust in the offering this season, as he’s throwing it more (over 56%) and with better results (+0.15 runs/100). He’s not blowing hitters away (6.18 K/9), but Buchholz’s walk rate has fallen from 4.86 BB/9 in 2008 to 3.79 in 2009. His transition to the big leagues might not have been immediate, but there’s still plenty of reason to expect Buchholz to be a major asset for the Sox in the years to come.

Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks

Very quietly, Montero has authored a sweet .366 wOBA for the D-Backs in 2009. The Caracas, Venezuela native performed well in admittedly hitter-friendly venues in the minors, and he has gotten progressively better in the big leagues (.296 wOBA in 2007, .330 in ’08). Chase Field certainly helps, but even in a neutral venue, Montero has been impressive. Miguel has posted +10.6 Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive value) this season, 5th among all backstops.

Montero is an awfully liberal swinger, taking a cut at 29.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone and hacking at 75.3% of offerings within the zone (the averages are about 25% and 66%, respectively). However, that aggressive approach has not manifested in a high first-pitch strike percentage (his 55.2 F-Strike% is below the 58% MLB average), and Montero has drawn a walk in 8.6% of his PA.

Stock Down

Alex Rios, White Sox

White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, um, isn’t exactly fond of his newly-acquired outfielder. Picked up from the Blue Jays in a straight waiver claim in August, Rios has compiled a line with the Good Guys that would make DeWayne Wise puff his chest out in comparison (.140/.156/.215 in 97 PA).

The 28 year-old’s wOBA has plummeted from the .350-.360 range from 2006-2008 to a paltry .302 in 2009. Has Rios been the victim of very poor luck, or is there something deeper going on here?

The answer appears to be a bit of both. Punching Alex’s homers, K’s, stolen bases, line drives flyballs, pop ups and grounders into this expected BABIP calculator, we find that Rios’ BABIP “should” be around .306, instead of his actual mark of .274.

Even assuming all of those additional hits would be singles, that takes Rios’ line to .274/.322/.421 instead of .242/.290/.389. That equates to a wOBA of about .334. Clearly a step down from his ’06-’08 lines, though his league-average bat and typically plus defense might make that contract less onerous than it appears to be at first glance.

Of course, that’s not to say there’s no reason to be concerned. Consider the following trends:

-Rios’ walk rate has dipped 7.9% of his PA in 2007, 6.5% in ’08 and just 5.9% in 2009
-His K rate has risen from 16% in ’07, 17.6% in ’08 and 19.1% in ’09
-Rios’ ISO has fallen from .201 in ’07, .170 in ’08 and .147 in ’09
-Alex is getting jammed more often, with his infield/ fly ball rate climbing from 6.6% in ’07, 7.9% in ’08 and 12% in ’09
-Rios’ performance vs. fastballs has fallen off a cliff: +2.30 runs per 100 fastballs seen in ’06, +1.75 in ’07, +0.79 in ’08 and -0.13 in ’09.

Kyle Davies, Royals

Davies’ appearance here might seem like a head-scratcher. After all, the former Braves prospect has surrendered just two runs in 17 September innings. The results are great. The process, however, is not.

Davies has dished out six walks in each of his past two starts. The 26 year-old righty has long struggled to hone his low-90’s heat, high-80’s slider/cutter, mid-70’s curve and low-80’s changeup. Davies has issued 4.49 BB/9 during his major league career, and he is up to 4.83 BB/9 in 2009.

It’s just plain difficult to have any kind of sustained success when you put yourself at the mercy of the batter so frequently. Davies has placed just 43.6% of his pitches within the strike zone this season (49% MLB average). Not surprisingly, that has led to his falling behind the hitter often (52.2% first-pitch strike percentage). Davies’ punitive demotion to AAA Omaha offered promise (46.1 IP, 8.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9), but he hasn’t been able to avoid the free passes with K.C.

Edgar Renteria, Giants

Signed to a 2-year, $18.5M pact during the off-season, Renteria has been little more than replacement-level in 2009 (0.2 WAR). While the 34 year-old plays a passable shortstop, his bat (-19 Batting Runs) has been all kinds of awful, even by Giants standards. Renteria’s pop continues to wane:

ISO, by year

2006: .144
2007: .138
2008: .111
2009: .079

Jermaine Dye, White Sox

Dye (who turns 36 this off-season) may find the free agent waters to be downright frosty this winter. His outfield D is DH-worthy (-17.4 UZR/150 in RF in 2009, and that’s an improvement on his 2006-2008 work). At the plate, Dye has been MIA since the All-Star break (.166/.266/.269; Jermaine, meet Alex. Alex, Jermaine).

It’s probably best not to jump to the conclusion that he’s suddenly “done”, though. Gruesome second half and all, Dye still has a .341 wOBA for the season, with a .204 ISO. His BABIP since the Midsummer Classic is stunningly low at .182.

Chris Volstad, Marlins

Volstad was vaporized for 24 runs in 19.2 IP during August, walking 13 batters and allowing 33 hits. His first September start (3 IP, 5 R, 5 BB) went little better.

Overall, though, Volstad has compiled a decent 4.39 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run/flyball rate). He has rates of 6.1 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9, but a huge 17.3 HR/FB% has put a massive dent in his ERA (now up to 5.17). The average for pitchers tends to be around 11-12%, and Volstad’s rate is the highest among all starters. That number should could down in 2010.

Seen on the face of things, this has not been a great season for Clay Buchholz. Neither his 3.99 ERA nor his 1.70 WHIP is attractive. He’s striking out a minuscule 5.63 batters per nine, which is especially disconcerting given his double-digit minor league strikeout rates. He’s walking 4.7 batters per nine, too. So why the renewed enthusiasm for the young pitcher in some circles?

First, his luck has never been even average in the past two years. Consider that his BABIP allowed for the past two seasons has been .366 and .328 respectively, this despite giving up 20.9% and 17.6% line drive rates in those two seasons. That last line drive rate could even be considered a good one.

To continue the “he’s better than he looks” theme, Clay’s velocity is still on it’s way up, and has increased in all three of his major league seasons. All of his offspeed stuff has rated positively in our linear weight system, and his fastball is improving. Buchholz has also had a good groundball rate that has gotten better progressively.

In fact, Keith Law addressed many of these positives in Buchholz’s game with one question and answer on his August 14 chat on ESPN.com:

Brian (MA)
Is Buchholz’s high gb% this year real? Seems to me his fastball has more sink to it this year, but was wondering your thoughts after seeing him in person.

Keith Law
I only saw one outing but I could believe it. His arm slot was a little lower and his fastball had more life than I’d seen in the past (and it was harder – 92-96).

Reading something like this, and taking into account his last 19 innings, in which he’s given up four earned runs, and had 33 groundballs to 18 flyballs, it seems obvious that we have to consult Pitch F/x to see if something has indeed changed recently.

His arm slot is certainly lower. Compare the release points from this game chart for the August 13 matchup with the Tigers to the same release points from the game chart for his July 22 matchup with the Rangers and you’ll see clearly that his release point is lower.

His usage rate on the fastball has also gone up this year. There might be two schools of thought here. If his offspeed stuff is so good, why use the fastball more? The other is more developmental: if he is to be a good pitcher someday, he’ll have to establish that fastball. At 94 MPH with more horizontal movement this year (up over an inch), Buchholz’ fastball seems to be gaining steam. Perhaps the second school has it correctly.

One thing comes clear if you look at the movement and velocity charts for this pitcher. This is not a complete product. Just look at all the movement changes (every pitch gained or lost around an inch of movement either horizontally or vertically from 2008 to 2009) and the velocity changes (again, every pitch gained almost a mile per hour from 2008 to 2009) and you’ll see that he is still in flux.

Consider his slider. Last year, he showed a 79.8 MPH slider with 0.9 inches of horizontal movement and 5.1 inches of vertical movement. This year that same slider is 84 MPH and has 2.4 inches of horizontal movement and 0.9 inches of vertical movement. Perhaps we are still waiting to see the real Clay Buchholz.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 21

Bronson Arroyo – In his last eight games, Arroyo has seven Quality Starts and a 2.30 ERA. Yet somehow he is only 3-4 in that span. Arroyo has been hurt by the home run ball this year. Overall he has a 1.39 HR/9 and a 13 percent HR/FB rate. But in those last eight games he has allowed just four HR in 58.2 IP. Make sure he is active this week.

Clay Buchholz – In his last three outings, Buchholz has hurled Quality Starts but is only 1-2 in that span. With two home starts this week, look for the strong pitching to continue and expect better luck in the win department for the 25-year old.

Kevin Millwood – On the surface Millwood seems to have a normal, or even below-average HR rate. He has a 1.04 HR/9 mark along with a 9.7 percent HR/FB rate. But he has allowed 11 HR in 69.1 IP in road starts this year. This week he has starts at Yankee Stadium and the Metrodome so keep him on the bench.

Jeff Niemann – It has been a breakout year for Niemann but in the last two months he has started to exhibit some extreme home/road splits. In that span he is 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA and a 0.904 WHIP at Tropicana Field. Meanwhile, on the road he is 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.364 WHIP. With two road starts upcoming put him on the bench if you have other options.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Last year, Rowland-Smith pitched very well down the stretch (2.56 ERA in last eight games) when moved from the bullpen. This year he got caught in a numbers game and spent a lot of time in Triple-A. But he is back in the rotation for the Mariners and has reeled off Quality Starts in three of his last four outings. He is a good candidate to pick up and insert into your lineup for his two starts this week at home versus Oakland and Kansas City.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 21 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Santana, Verlander, Halladay, Lee, Lester, Cain, Wainwright, Gallardo, Haren, Greinke, Weaver, Harden, Kershaw, Jurrjens, Marquis, Blanton, Baker, Chamberlain, Zito, Latos, Meche, Ohlendorf, Masterson, Tillman, Matusz, Hammel, Snell, Parnell, Contreras, West, Mazzaro, Sowers, Suppan, F. Garcia, Balester.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 19 and how they did.

Blackburn – Advised to start. 22.50 ERA, 2 Ks, 3.50 WHIP (2 starts)
de la Rosa – Advised to start. 2 W, 0.68 ERA, 20 Ks, 1.57 WHIP (2)
Lohse – Advised to start. W, 4.76 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.32 WHIP (2)
Rzepczynski – Advised to sit. 4.82 ERA, 1 K, 1.82 WHIP (2)
Sanchez – Advised to start. 4.50 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (2)