Archive for Cincinnati

Trevor Bauer, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship’s No.-9 starting pitcher and No.-31 player overall, has pitched to the tune of a 4.12 ERA this year. All things considered (“things” being, primarily, the juiced ball), Bauer hasn’t been awful. But after compiling a pristine 2.21 ERA in last year’s breakout with equally pristine ERA estimators to boot (3.14 xFIP, 3.21 SIERA), this year’s peripherals (4.35 xFIP, 4.21 SIERA) are far less inspiring, even when adjusted for context.

The easiest way to write off Bauer’s 2018 season as an aberration is, well, to look at everything else he has ever done. He sports a career 3.97 ERA, with just one season (2018) with an ERA under 4.00. The blind squirrel who took an approach as simplistic as this in 2019 would have invariably found a nut.

Such an approach, however, would grossly undersell Bauer’s gains in 2018, which were quite legitimate. Using the most basic of peripherals, Bauer’s swinging strike rate (SwStr%) took the best 3rd-biggest step forward in nominal terms, behind only Patrick Corbin (and his slider) and Gerrit Cole (and his fastball).

Yet 2018 gains do not necessarily beget sustained excellence. Bauer’s narrative is a fairly complex one, so let’s give it proper attention.

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At a time when many players trade contact for fly ball rates to generate power, Jesse Winker could be emerging as a fantasy asset with a skill set rooted in plate discipline with power on the rise. Winker appeared in 89 games last year scoring 38 runs with seven home runs, 48 RBI and a .299/.405/.431 slash line. Unfortunately, his season ended abruptly due to a subluxation of his right shoulder, covered in detail by Mark Sheldon. While many questioned Winker’s power as a prospect, the article suggests he’s been dealing with the balky shoulder for 2-to-3 seasons. In spite of this, Winker flashed his upside for fantasy in this limited sample, making him an intriguing target for upcoming drafts.

Before delving into the potential growth of his power, ignoring Winker’s prowess at the plate would be a mistake. He’s one of five players with at least 300 plate appearances last year to record more walks than strikeouts. This puts him in rare air joining only Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Alex Bregman and teammate Joey Votto in doing so. Some guy named Mike Trout just missed the list with a 0.98 walk to strikeout rate. In terms of plate discipline, Winker finished with a 5.9 swinging strike percentage and made contact over 85 percent of the time. Winker also swung at pitches in the strike zone (Z-swing percentage) at a 65.3 rate punctuating his upside in terms of discipline.

Transitioning to his batted ball data, Winker increased his line drive percentage by over seven percent, reduced his ground ball rate by over 10 while hitting more fly balls compared to his statistics from 2017 in Cincinnati, in spite of a nagging shoulder injury. More important, Winker raised his hard hit percentage to 43.9 percent last year which overshadows the drop in home run per fly ball data. A hitter who just fell short of hitting .300 with more walks than strikeouts and improved batted ball data seems like an interesting fantasy commodity. Here’s a look at a rolling chart of these statistics from the last two seasons:

If Winker’s shoulder returns to full strength and he can carry over the hard hit percentage, his latent power could surface in 2019. Looking at his xSTATS, Winker’s exit velocity grew from 86.7 MPH in 2017 to 89.1 MPH last season. His expected home runs from the last two years add up to 14.8 in only 402 at-bats, almost in direct line with his 14 in this time frame. Unlike many batters, Winker does not need to pull the ball to increase his home run total, it lies within his ability to hit to all fields. Here’s his spray chart from the last seasons using all of his line drives and fly balls according to Statcast:

Steamer projects a very solid season for Winker with 75 runs, 17 home runs, 66 RBI, three stolen bases and a .284/.376/.437 slash line in 525 at-bats. Once again, using his xSTATS, Winker’s expected average from the last two years sits at a very respectable .288, and well within his outcomes for 2019, with owners hoping for a repeat of last year. This also applies to his home run projection as long as he can accrue at least 500 at-bats. News on his shoulder this spring will provide more clarity as to his health. With some luck, Winker could exceed his Steamer home run projection and reach 20, but it’s speculation not an expectation. However, 17-to-20 home runs with a .288 average could be more appealing than how people may perceive Winker. Especially considering only 20 hitters finished with a higher average than Winkler while accruing at least 300 plate appearances.

Winker’s #2EarlyToMock average draft position finished at 211.1 over the course of nine drafts. His highest draft spot of 180 still leaves room for profit due to his potential upside. Discipline with an uptick in power and a strong supporting cast in Cincinnati not only make Jesse Winker a half season hero, but he’s a worthy target in the upcoming draft season.

A few weeks ago, we introduced depth chart discussions in the form of playing time battles. RotoGraphs staff have discussed and assessed noteworthy battles for playing time and/or starting gigs for position players and, separately, pitchers, and such analysis will continue until the season’s commencement. Here, specifically, this author will investigate the Cincinnati Reds‘ position player situations.

The Reds don’t expect to contend, but it doesn’t mean you can’t! Actually, the Reds aren’t that bad. They have a sneaky-good, or at least a sneaky-upside, rotation alongside some interesting bounce-back candidates and buried prospects.

Catcher

The Reds expect Devin Mesoraco back for opening day, but reports indicate he’ll be eased into spring training. The former is a big deal, given Mesoraco missed almost the entire 2015 season due to a hip injury that eventually required surgery. He had a monster 2014 season, making him one of said bounce-back candidates.

Should he come close to 2014’s production — a 40% fly ball rate (FB%), a 15% HR/FB, a 35% hard-hit rate (Hard%) — puts him right at Steamer’s projection of 16 home runs in 400 plate appearances. And I wouldn’t be surprised if he pushed his playing time closer to 500 PAs given a clean bill of health and solid production, and robust playing time ain’t easy to come by from a signal-caller.

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