Archive for Chris Young

After we checked center field this week, reactions were immediate and in favor of some of the names that didn’t quite make the top 15. These reactions were not without reason, because the position was surprisingly deep, especially if speed is the desired commodity.

The biggest hub-ub was raised in favor of Colby Rasmus, who is most certainly the best real-life player that didn’t make the list. His combination of plus defense in centerfield (+13.4 UZR/150) and developing offense (.311 wOBA) was already worth more than two wins for the Cardinals. But offense is the name of the game in fantasy, and his .251 batting average and modest speed (three stolen bases) last year were not good enough to roster in most mixed leagues.

The fans have rosy expectations for the player (outpacing the Bill James projections for once), and given his minor league stats, there’s reason for the optimism. As a youngster in most levels (he’s 23 now), he put up a nice combined line of .277/.366/.485 with power (.208 ISO) and speed (74 stolen bases, 81% success rate). But his batting averages also dropped with every successive promotion in the minor leagues, and batting average is the main difference between the Jamesian projections and those of the fans.

So will he hit .269 and recover some of the speed he showed in the minors and approximate a young Carlos Beltran next year? or will he hit .253 and make owning him a difficult proposition in 5×5 roto play? The key seems to be BABIP. James has him with a modest number for a man with wheels (.279). His batted ball profile last year (.284 BABIP, 19.6% line drive rate) seems to suggest he was slightly unlucky (.307 xBABIP) and that the fans’ BABIP projection (.314) is more reasonable. Given Rasmus’ pedigree, and his demonstrated power and speed, there are few late-round upside picks that are as exciting. Just draft Rasmus as your fourth outfielder in order to mitigate the batting average risk.

Dexter Fowler is another interesting name that didn’t quite make the list. The concern with Fowler is that Carlos Gonzalez played better defense in center field according to UZR and also outperformed Fowler at the plate in the second half. One thing that Fowler really needs to work on is his strikeout rate (26.8% in 2009) and his minor league numbers (23.7%) seem to suggest he can cut the Ks. If the Rockies don’t trade their outfield surplus, however, Fowler could find himself as the fourth outfielder that starts only against lefties (.850 career OPS vs. lefties). Regardless, Fowler’s pedigree with the scouting community should give him the benefit of the doubt if he finds himself battling with Seth Smith for time. Just realize that as it stands now, depending on Fowler for speed on your roto team is fraught with some risk.

Chris Young is an interesting outfielder, but he deserves a whole post of his own. Instead, let’s give a short shout-out to the new Reds centerfielder, Drew Stubbs. Though he strikes out too much (27.2% last year) to produce a great batting average, he has plus speed (6.1 speed score, 10 stolen bases, 71.4% success rate) that can actually improve. Consider that he’s bettered last year’s speed score in five out of six minor league seasons, and Bill James’ projections (51 stolen bases) don’t seem as outlandish as they might upon first blush. Deep leaguers looking for cheap speed need to remember this name.

Many fantasy leagues break the outfielders up by their respective positions, a quirk that creates a premium outfield position. Consider that, in many formats, the 12th-ranked center fielder going into the season was Chris Young, whose projections were comparable to the 12th-ranked second baseman going into the season (Rickie Weeks).

Defense then becomes a non-fantasy entity that can mean a lot to the fantasy fortunes of the center fielder. Play good defense, and you’ll buy yourself more time to figure out the batting part of the deal. Or at least, that seems to be what’s keeping Carlos Gomez playing in Minnesota. Let’s take a look at two young center fielders, how they are faring, and how defense factors into the decision.

Dexter Fowler – For a 23-year-old getting his first extended burn at the major league level, Fowler is acquitting himself reasonably well. His .264/.354/.405 slash line has a little bit of something for everyone. Walking 12.7% of the time assures that he can take advantage of his prodigious speed (6.5 speed score). He’s stolen 13 bases at a 72% success rate, and he’s hit three homers and 17 doubles in 273 plate appearances.

But it’s not all gravy on this train. He’s striking out 25% of the time after hovering around 20% for the large part of his minor league career. Subsequently, ZiPS RoS has him hitting .271 the rest of the season and continuing his current pace to finish with seven home runs and 25 stolen bases. Until his K-rate falls a little, that’s about the best that can be expected from this young man.

Because his offense is currently adequate, and his team is suddenly playing well, defense may not factor into his playing time too strongly. However, his team is not a strong contender in a crowded division, and things could change quickly. Pack an extended burn of strikeouts into a team-wide slump and a decision by management to focus on next year, and suddenly Fowler’s sub-par defense could become an ‘issue.’

His current 2.1 Range Factor in center field puts him in the Shane Victorino (2.3 RF) – Vernon Wells (2.3 RF) section of center field defenders. That’s the section where the offense helps the poor defense stay on the field. Is Fowler’s bat enough to offset the 5.3 runs he’s giving back on defense? Not if the major league team decides to think about his long-term future and sends him back to the minors to work on his D. That might also allow the team to showcase someone like Ryan Spilborghs for a trade.

Fernando Martinez – While his minor league team had already decided to play him at the corners, his major league team has a major league hole in center field and looks to be plugging it with their highest-ranked prospect. A look at the defense says that this is a short-term solution at best.

If major league defensive stats are still in their infancy, then minor league ones are much worse off. We can see that Martinez had a Range Factor of 2.31 in center field in the minor leagues, and that Carlos Beltran, an elite defender, had a career Range Factor of 2.7 in center field in the major leagues. Using the cruder Range Factor suggests that Martinez, like Fowler, could use some time honing his defense.

The problem in Martinez’ case, though, is that his offense won’t keep him in the position much longer. While his secondary offensive statistics are a little up and down like Fowler’s, Martinez has much more down in his numbers.

The good news is that he’s not striking out a ton (14.5%), and he’s shown improvement in that area over the last two years. His walk rate (6.8%) is in line with his minor league numbers, too.

But he’s not making good contact. He’s reaching outside the zone too much (26.5%) and not squaring the ball well (11.9% line drives). His 55.9% ground-ball percentage is positively Delmon Young-esque. Given that he’s only 20 years old, it’s a lot to ask of him to spell Beltran.

Since the team is in contention, look for Omar Minaya to target a center field platoon partner for Jeremy Reed. Relatively cheap acquisitions like Scott Hairston and Jason Michaels could take the bat out of Reed’s hands against lefties, while also letting young F-Mart work out some more kinks in the minor leagues. Those cheaper veteran outfielders would also still have value once all the injured veterans return.

A fair number of stars, like Chad Billingsley and Dan Haren, are slated for two starts in Week 4. But since you are going to start those guys anyway, let’s take a look at some other pitchers you may be on the fence about who are projected for two starts in those leagues with weeks starting on Monday.

Joe Blanton – Yes, he has yet to win a game and holds an ugly 7.31 ERA. He also has two home starts against soft tossers Shairon Martis and Livan Hernandez, pitchers against whom his teammates should be able to provide him with some runs. And Blanton does have 16 strikeouts in 16 innings this season.

Edwin Jackson – In four games this season, Jackson has a nifty 1.04 WHIP along with a 2.77 ERA. This week he gets two home starts. On Tuesday he is scheduled to go against Chien-Ming Wang, who has not been setting the world on fire, and Sunday he goes up against Cliff Lee, who already has three losses on the year.

Kyle Lohse – In home games this year, Lohse is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA. In his lone road start, he gave up four ER in five IP. In 2008, his road ERA was 1.11 runs higher than his home mark. Lohse has road starts in Atlanta and at Washington this week.

Chris Young – In this week’s Trade Possibilities column, I highlighted Young as a player to move. Some thought that was over the top, given he had just one bad start. This week could be a bad one for Young, as he has road starts in Colorado and at Los Angeles. In the last two years, Young has allowed 11 runs in 18 IP in Coors Field and 16 runs in 16 IP at Dodger Stadium.

Barry Zito – In 2008, Pablo Sandoval caught Zito five times and the lefty had a 3.21 ERA with four quality starts when Sandoval was his catcher. In his last outing, Zito pitched seven scoreless innings with Sandoval behind the dish. Maybe manager Bruce Bochy, a former catcher, can connect the dots and make Sandoval Zito’s personal catcher on a full-time basis. Zito has home starts against the Dodgers and Rockies.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 4 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Billingsley, Sabathia, Zambrano, Haren, Shields, Danks, Oswalt, Lilly, Lee, Meche, Jurrjens, Nolasco, Verlander, Millwood, Cueto, Wolf, Maine, Penny, Baker, Guthrie, Wakefield, Wang, Bush, Webb, Purcey, Pineiro, Looper, Lannan, Anderson, Niemann, Bannister, Martis, Hernandez, Richmond, Loux, Hammel, Jakubauskas, Geer and Harrison.

Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off an Emilio Bonifacio for Gil Meche trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Chris Iannetta – The very limited track record in the majors and his .111 average makes Iannetta someone his current owner may want to move. The .067 BABIP and the .222 ISO are reasons you want to get him.

Justin Verlander – He is averaging over 95 mph with his fastball, the highest rate in his major league career. Verlander’s SO/BB ratio of 2.86 is also a career best. So, how does he have an 0-2 record with a 7.88 ERA? He has a .389 BABIP and a 38.8 LOB%. His FIP checks in at 3.88 this season. The Tigers are sixth in defensive efficiency rating in 2009, so we are looking at a lot of bad luck here.

Curtis Granderson – He is striking out at 17.3 percent, which would be his lowest total in the majors. But the hits are just not falling in yet, as his .220 BABIP will attest. Granderson has a lifetime .335 mark in the category. I am a little surprised at him having just one stolen base attempt (successful) but he has only eight singles and four walks so far, so Granderson has not had a ton of opportunities yet.

Carl Pavano – Sure, at this point Pavano is better known for his DL stints and for dating Alyssa Milano. But there is a pitcher inside trying to get out. If someone took a flier on him on Draft Day, they are no doubt disgusted by his 9.69 ERA. But Pavano has pitched decent in two of his three starts this season, all three of which have come on the road. After getting bombed in his first start at Texas, Pavano has a 3.75 ERA with 12 strikeouts and one walk in 12 IP at Kansas City and at New York. At one point in his life, Pavano was an 18-game winner.

Carlos Lee – With a .244-2-8 line so far this season, Lee is hardly doing awful but it is possible that an owner might be just a tad worried. This is one of the most consistent .300-30-100 guys around and if you can get him at any kind of discount at all, pull the trigger on the deal.

Dump

Carlos Pena – He is second in the majors with six home runs and tied for third with 15 RBIs which should make him very attractive to other owners. But call me crazy, I just do not think he can maintain a .680 SLG. Before the season, Pena was targeted almost exactly alike by all five projection systems, which saw him as a .255-31-77 kind of guy.

Chris Young – This is All-Star Chris Young, the Padres pitcher with the 2-0 record with 14 strikeouts in 16.2 innings. If you cannot trade him, at least take him out of your lineup whenever he makes a road start. Both wins this year have come at home, where he has a 1.38 ERA. Young has a 4.86 ERA on the season.

Orlando Hudson – The O-Dog is riding high, including the first cycle by a home player at Dodger Stadium. Hudson is doing everything you want a fantasy player to do, hitting for average, power and stealing bases. Too bad it cannot last. This is an injury-prone player, one who plays in the middle infield where he is likely to get banged up at some point in the season. But even if he stays healthy, Hudson is not likely to have a .400 BABIP or hit much better than his numbers away from Chase Field the past three seasons, where he batted .274/.339/.392 in 835 plate appearances.

Jarrod Washburn – Since winning 18 games with a 3.15 ERA in 2002, Washburn has pitched six seasons (175 starts), has not won more than 11 in a year and has posted an ERA above 4.32 in five of them. See if someone might be enticed by his 2-0 record with a 1.29 ERA.

Miguel Tejada – That .360 batting average sure looks nice. Too bad it is accompanied by no home runs and only one RBI. The power is gone and that gaudy average will not last.