Archive for chris heisey

Billy Hamilton is fast. We get it. He swiped 103 bases at Low-A Dayton in 2011. In 2012, he stole 155 bases between High-A Bakersfield and Double-A Pensacola and then kicked in another 10 during a 17-game stint at the Arizona Fall League. Last season, he put another 75 notches in his belt at Triple-A Louisville, and when he was given his cup of coffee in the bigs, he swiped another 13 bases over the team’s final 13 games. Yeah, he’s pretty darn fast. But while he’s bathing in quickness rivaled only by the Flash, the Roman god Mercury and that little kid from The Incredibles, Hamilton may not be the 2014 fantasy goldmine that everybody seems to think. Read the rest of this entry »

While the corners remain the same, the Cincinnati Reds made a big change in center field with a major three-team trade with the Diamondbacks and Indians during the offseason. They gave up a fine, defensive shortstop prospect, but obtained an outstanding 20-20 outfielder to cover center and possibly opened the door a little wider for one of their most-hyped prospects down the road. There’s some interesting flexibility that the team has right now, so let’s take a quick look… Read the rest of this entry »

It wasn’t as if Shin-Soo Choo was really tearing it up for fantasy owners this season anyway, was he?  After back to back 20-20 seasons with a .300 average, the 28 year old Korean-born outfielder ran into a little trouble this year.  He struggled out of the gate in April and was then arrested on DUI charges at the beginning of May.  The apparent shame perpetuated the sub par play and now here in June, after being hit on the hand  by Giants’ starter Jonathan Sanchez, is on the DL with a broken thumb that will require surgery and will be sidelined for a minimum of six weeks. Read the rest of this entry »

In honor of the outfield post that I should have done yesterday, here are a couple of deep league outfielders worth talking about today, this fine day.

Mitch Maier, Kansas City (1% owned)
Maier is really most interesting because, with the dearth of options on the deep league waiver wire, he’s an everyday layer that doesn’t completely suck. He really doesn’t have any power, though, as his .092 career ISO suggests. Oh, it might find its way to league average (.147 this year), if only because his minor league slugging numbers were a little better, but it won’t ever be on the level that you’d expect from an outfielder. If you’re owning him for steals, he did steal 99 in the minor leagues… in 687 games. Since 2005, his full-season high was 16 steals, and his speed scores haven’t topped 6.0 at any level since 2006. Maier should be able to put up a decent batting average to pair with his OBP, though. He’s walking 10.3% of the time and only striking out 17.9% of the time. His batting average right now is neutral when it comes to batted ball luck (.314 BABIP), and there’s a chance he betters that number.

Chris Heisey, Cincinnati (1% owned)
Of these two players, Heisey is the riskier one, yet he also owns the better upside. He’s got a tougher playing time situation, since Drew Stubbs was the former center fielder of the future, and Chris Dickerson is finally healthy and played regularly at the end of last year. On the other hand, Stubbs can’t stop whiffing, and Dickerson has some problems against left-handers – there is daylight here, and Heisey has started six straight. Heisey has been the beneficiary of some luck (.354 BABIP) and a strikeout rate (27.6%) that could portend a dropping batting average in the future. He had nice batting averages in the minors (.296 career), and his strikeout rates hovered around 15%, so maybe he’ll whiff a little bit less in the future to offset the dropping BABIP. The power looks like it will be above-average, as his ISO was close to .200 over the last two years at Double-A and Triple-A. He adds speed to the package, with 88 steals in 476 career minor league games, and a nice 20/20 season on his resume. The riskier pick here will give you better dividends if he can hold on to the job. Total Zone had him as an above-average center fielder in the minor leagues, though – he shouldn’t lose the job because of the defense, it seems.

In 2009, Cincinnati’s outfielders featured lackluster lumber. George Foster, Cesar Geronimo and Ken Griffey Sr. they were not. Collectively, Reds fly catchers posted a .318 wOBA, second-worst in the N.L. Considering that the Padres (.317 wOBA) play in a park that’s anathema to offense, it’s safe to say that Cincy’s outfielders were the least potent in the Senior Circuit.

However, better days are on the horizon. The Reds have a plethora of intriguing outfield options, some already in the majors and others just around the corner in the minors. Here’s a rundown of who may be guarding the gaps at the GAP in 2010 and beyond.

In the majors

Jay Bruce

The Boss entered 2009 with plenty of fantasy hoopla, but his final .223/.303/.470 triple-slash looks disappointing. Or does it? At age 22, Bruce walked more, struck out less and hit for a near-.250 ISO. The potent lefty batter swung at fewer pitches out of the zone, took at cut at more in-zone offerings and made more contact. In other words, Bruce matured at the dish.

His BABIP was shockingly low, at .222. Yes, his line drive rate (13 percent) was also down considerably. But even so, Bruce’s Expected BABIP, based on HR, strikeouts, SB, line drive rate, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls, was .294. Bruce turns 23 in April. With his wrist healed, he’s poised to wreak havoc on pitchers in 2010. The fans seem well aware of Bruce’s talents, projecting a .271/.343/.497 line for Cincy’s right fielder.

Drew Stubbs

The 8th overall pick in the 2006 draft, Stubbs made a favorable first impression in Cincinnati following his call-up last August. The University of Texas alumnus turned in a .267/.323/.439 line in 196 plate appearances (101 wRC+), swiping 10 bags in 14 attempts. Stubbs displayed a surprising amount of pop in the majors, with 8 HR and a .172 ISO.

A 6-4, 200 pound righty batter, Stubbs has long been adored by scouts for his range in center field. His TotalZone defensive numbers are glowing, too. Stubbs’ bat, however, has been subject to much debate.

While displaying a keen eye at the plate, Stubbs had issues making contact with the Long Horns. Those swing-and-miss tendencies have manifested in pro ball, with the gifted defender whiffing in 23.4% of his PA in the minors. His big frame hasn’t translated to a lot extra-base thump (career .132 ISO).

However, Stubbs continues to work the count well (11.9 BB%), and his base stealing has gone from haphazard (23 SB, 15 CS in Low-A in 2007) to fantastic (46 SB, 8 CS in AAA in 2009). As a plus CF with plate discipline and quick feet, the 25 year-old looks like a quality starter for the Reds. His base thievery makes him relevant in fantasy circles.

Chris Dickerson

Dickerson’s 2009 season was cut short by shoulder and ankle injuries. In between the ailments, the 28 year-old performed up to expectations: he worked the count (13.3 BB%), punched out often (25.9 K%) and nabbed some bases (11 SB, 3 CS). Dickerson didn’t put a charge in the ball in the lower minors, but his work at AAA (.180 ISO) and with the Reds in 2008 gave some hope that the 6-3, 225 pound batter had found his power stroke. Alas, a near-fifty percent GB rate in 2009 produced a .098 ISO.

Dickerson straddles the line between highly useful 4th outfielder and acceptable starter (Chris helps himself with quality outfield D). Given his issues with lefty pitching in the minors (career .223/.328/.319 line), he figures to take on righties in a platoon role in 2010. If you’re in a deep NL-only league, you could do worse.

Wladimir Balentien

Acquired from Seattle last July for RHP Robert Manuel, Wlad has failed to translate his minor league feats of strength to the big leagues.

Balentien was Curacao’s version of Jeff Francoeur in the low minors, swinging at anything within a five mile radius of home plate. However, the big righty batter cleaned up his plate approach in AAA (10.5 BB%, 18.8 K%, .283/.359/.534 line).

Unfortunately, Balentien has been carved up in the majors. In 559 career PA, Wlad has a weak .221/.281/.374 line, with a 72 wRC+. He has been merely below-average against fastballs and changeups. But breaking stuff has baffled him entirely (-3.12 runs/100 against sliders, -1.5 vs. curveballs). As a result, Balentien’s 70% MLB contact rate is miles away from the 80-81% average.

You might think Wlad would be a decent platoon mate for Dickerson, but Balentien has a reverse platoon split. At 25, Balentien is entering a critical point in his career. He needs to tighten his strike zone and avoid looking like Pedro Cerrano against stuff that bends and breaks.

Laynce Nix

Outrighted by the Reds during the fall, Laynce was recently brought back to Cincy on a minor league deal. The 30 year-old lefty hitter is coming off of a season in which he popped 15 HR and posted a .236 ISO.

Once you factor in Nix’s hack-tastic approach (6.6 BB%) and favorable home ballpark, though, his offense was eight percent below the league average (92 wRC+; his career mark is a paltry 74). As a good defender who occasionally makes some loud contact against righties, Nix is a decent extra outfielder. But he’s not a fantasy option. If you’re stuck playing a guy with a career .277 OBP, you’re screwed.

Willy Taveras

What happens when a batting average-dependent player, with zero power or patience, doesn’t have those bloops and ducksnorts fall in? Ask Taveras. The 28 year-old was merely very bad at the plate in 2008 (74 wRC+). But in 2009, horror ensued.

Taveras’ bat was 51 percent worse than the league average (49 wRC+) as he battled a quad strain. Sure, he stole some bases (25 SB, 6 CS). But Taveras is the exact type of player that fantasy players should avoid. He gives production in one category, at the expense of severely hampering you in many others. Stubbs has Taveras’ speed and actually has a clue in the batter’s box. Willy figures to be either glued to the bench or in another city come spring.

Coming soon

Chris Heisey

A 17th round pick out of Division III Messiah (PA), Heisey vaulted up Cincinnati’s prospect list with an impressive 2009 season.

A career .298/.369/.460 hitter in the minors, Heisey possesses a broad, if short of star-caliber skill-set. He hits for some power (.162 ISO career, and a .214 ISO at AA in 2009), but he’s not a hulking over-the-fence threat. The right batter picks his SB spots well (career 84.3 SB%), though he wouldn’t be described as a burner. Heisey gets positive reviews for his outfield defense, but he’s likely a corner outfielder in the majors. The well-rounded prospect could be more selective at the dish: his career walk rate is a little over eight percent.

Baseball America said it best in its 2010 Reds Top 10 Prospects list: “Heisey could be termed a ‘cheap five-tool player.'” The 25 year-old isn’t far away from making his big league debut. He’s no star, but Heisey and his blend of talents could figure into Cincy’s left field picture.

Todd Frazier

At this point, few doubt that the former Rutgers star is going to pack a punch with his bat. The question is, where will his name be penciled in on the diamond? A 6-3, 215 pound righty hitter, Frazier has trekked all over the field.

He’s not going to stick at shortstop. The Reds had him pinballing from left field to first base to second base in 2009, with a couple appearances at the hot corner for good measure. Brandon Phillips, a plus defender at 2B who’s signed for two more years (with a club option for 2012), doesn’t figure to be moving. Scott Rolen is Reds property through 2012 following his restructured deal with the club.

As such, LF appears to be the place where Frazier (a career .296/.367/.491 minor league hitter) breaks into the majors. “Arm bar” or not, his bat figures to be potent.

Position switch?

Juan Francisco

The 6-2 lefty hitter made his major league debut last season, and has played almost exclusively at 3B in the minors. However, Francisco is tipping the scales at 210+ pounds already. His long-term viability at the position is in question. The 22 year-old has ample pop (.201 minor league ISO), but he has to do a better job of laying off junk balls. He has taken a free pass in just 3.8% of his PA, with a 23.4% K rate. Francisco would be best served spending a full season in AAA, lest big league pitchers take advantage of his eyes-to-ankles strike zone.

Yonder Alonso

A first-round pick in the 2008 draft out of Miami, Alonso has a sweet lefty swing and has batted .293/.378/.459 on the farm. His ’09 season was slowed by a broken hamate bone, but Alonso still reached AA. While Yonder is not far away, there’s a sizeable road block at first base in Joey Votto. Sadly, the 6-2, 215 pound Alonso runs like tree sap in winter. Baseball America said “Cincinnati has toyed with playing him at third base, but his limited range would be a liability.” Perhaps the Reds will put him in left field, stomaching his defensive mishaps in exchange for his quality lumber.

Let’s have a look around the Arizona Fall League, a developmental league for prospects that either A) Need a bit of fine-tuning before reaching the Majors, B) Need extra work after missing a chunk of the ’09 season due to injury, and/or C) Are being considered for inclusion on the 40-man roster this winter.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
As you’ve probably already heard, Strasburg (The No. 1 overall pick in June’s amateur draft) won his first official pro appearance last week. The right-hander pitched 3.1 scoreless innings and allowed just two hits and one walk. He struck out two batters but, more importantly, he recorded all eight of his in-play outs via the ground ball. A pitcher with a dominating repertoire and a significant ground-ball rate will have a lot of success. ETA: Mid-2010

Chia-Jen Lo, RHP, Houston
The 23-year-old reliever rose to double-A in his first pro season. Lo, a Taiwan native, is leading the AFL in strikeouts with six in four innings of work spread over two outings. He is also inducing a solid number of ground balls. Lo has a fastball that can touch 95 mph, as well as a splitter, slider and changeup. He should be on your watch list and a sleeper candidate for drafting in keeper leagues. He has the potential to be a future closer or set-up man. ETA: Mid-2010

Mike Stanton, OF, Florida
Stanton is swinging a hot bat despite ending the year with modest contact rates in double-A. The outfielder is currently hitting .533 (tied for third in the league) through four games. He has eight hits in 15 at-bats, including a homer. He’s struck out six times and has stolen three bases in as many attempts. If Stanton can improve his base running to the point where he can provide 10-15 steals a season, it will increase his fantasy value. ETA: Mid-2011

Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati
Heisey just won’t stop improving. The Cincinnati Reds’ outfield prospect is tied with Stanton in batting average through 15 at-bats. He also has four extra base hits, two walks and a stolen base. Heisey could join fellow youngsters Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce in the Reds 2010 opening day outfield. ETA: Early 2010

Dustin Ackley, OF, Seattle
The second-overall pick in the ’09 draft, like Strasburg, is making his pro debut in the AFL. Ackley has five hits in 10 at-bats (.500) with one double. He has also stolen a base and has yet to strike out. ETA: Early 2011

Struggling: Some of the big names that are scuffling early on, include: Chris Parmelee (.000 in 10 at-bats), Brandon Allen (.118), Matt Dominguez (.154), Jason Castro (.167), Yonder Alonso (.167) and Buster Posey (.167).

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Tim Alderson: We hear a lot about Madison Bumgarner and deservedly so, but Alderson could very well beat the big left-hander to the Majors. Like Bumgarner, Alderson was drafted out of high school in the 2007 draft. Although his stuff is not as electric, he has better overall command and control. In fact, Alderson, 20, has walked just five batters all season (58.2 innings), including two in six double-A starts. If a spot is not open in the starting rotation for the right-hander, he could initially slide into the bullpen to offer some long relief.

Blake Parker: It’s been an interesting ride through the minors for the Cubs prospects, but he’s finally nearing his shot. Originally a 16th round selection in 2006 out of the University of Arkansas, Parker started out his pro career as a third base, but did not hit very well. With a strong arm, the club moved him to the mound and his career took off. The right-hander features a good sinker that can touch 95 mph and his secondary stuff, a slider and changeup, is improving rapidly. So far this season, he has yet to allow a home run in 24.1 innings and he’s striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings. His control (13 walks) still needs a little work.

Luis Perez: The Jays took a gamble on aggressively promoting Perez from low-A to double-A to begin the 2009 season. The southpaw was older (22) than the traditional Latin player when he came over to North America in 2007. He throws harder than most left-handers and he gets an incredible amount of ground balls to go along with a healthy dose of strikeouts. He has a ground-ball rate of 57.2% in 2009 despite the two-level jump and it was 60.6% in 2008. If he can sharpen his command just a bit more, he has the makings of a No. 3 or 4 starter. Worst case scenario, he could be a loogy, with left-handed batters hitting just .188 against him at double-A.

Chris Heisey: Everyone just keeps waiting for Heisey’s hot streak to come to an end. Cincinnati’s double-A outfielder, though, just keeps getting stronger with a line of .370/.446/.621 in 219 at-bats. He also has 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases and has walked more than he’s struck out (1.17 BB/K). Heisey hit .338 in April, .404 in May, and he’s well above .300 in June so far. It’s about time for Cincinnati to find room in triple-A for the 24-year-old prospect.

Michael Brantley: One of the pieces that Cleveland acquired for C.C. Sabathia, Brantley just keeps doing what he does best: Hit. Only 22, he’s already playing in triple-A and has a line of .275/.354/.381 with 19 steals in 218 at-bats. The left-handed hitter has a career .306 average and he has stolen 123 bases in 154 attempts (80%). He’s also walked 50 times more than he’s struck out in his career, which bodes extremely well for a top-of-the-order hitter. Brantley’s biggest weakness is his below-average defense in the outfield.

Scott Sizemore: Detroit desperately needs depth in the minor league system, so it’s nice to see a prospect improving his value in the upper levels of the minor league system. Sizemore has advanced through the system rather slowly for a college-drafted player but he’s almost MLB ready now. The second baseman has shown improved numbers in 2009 with a line of .306/.403/.532 and nine homers in 216 at-bats. The 24-year-old infielder has the potential to produce at least a few above-average offensive seasons, especially with his increased power numbers (perhaps stemming from being healthy after a hand injury in 2008).

Gaby Sanchez: The Florida Marlins team has had a tough year and the club has quickly slid down the standings in the National League East. If the team continues to struggle, current first baseman Jorge Cantu could find himself on the way out of town in return for some cheaper talent. If that happens, Sanchez could earn a shot as the everyday first baseman. He almost earned the opening day assignment (with Cantu manning third), but a poor spring doomed him to triple-A and then he was sidelined with an injury. Now healthy, he’s hitting .337/.409/.515 in 21 games.

After a week’s hiatus due to a busy schedule, we’re back with the weekly Minor Impacts, which is a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have an impact at the Major League Level in 2009.

Nolan Reimold: This talented player is absolutely killing the ball in Triple-A with a triple-slash line of .396/.484/.755 in 106 at-bats. Left field has been a black hole for the big-league club in 2009. However, 1+1 does not always equal 2 in Baltimore, no doubt much to Reimold’s chagrin. Felix Pie is hitting .180 and Lou Montanez is a bench player. It’s time to see what the former second-round pick (2005) can do – and at 25 years old Reimold’s not getting any younger.

Gorkys Hernandez: This 21-year-old outfielder is also having a nice showing in the minors, although he’s currently playing in double-A. Hernandez is hitting .331/.391/.421 with seven steals in 31 games. He plays good defense, as well. Unfortunately, he still strikes out too much for a player with his skill set, but he can’t do much worse than current Braves center-fielder and rookie Jordan Schafer, who is striking out almost 40% of the time.

Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, and Todd Frazier: The Reds organization is about to have another glut of outfielders. No fewer than three outfielders are currently knocking on the big league door but there isn’t room for everyone. Perhaps the club should look to cash in on some of this depth to help out in the pitching department. Stubbs, 24, is hitting .333/.412/.467 in triple-A and has made strides in his strikeout rate. Chris Heisey, 24, has long been an underdog, but he just keeps hitting and is currently at .374/.471/.626 with a BB/K rate of 1.90 in double-A. Frazier, who converted to the outfield from third base this season, is batting .281/.314/.422 but has as much – or more – potential as the other two hotter hitters.

Chris Tillman: The Baltimore starting rotation is an ugly, ugly place to be these days, but Tillman could make things a lot more bearable in the near future. Only 21, the right-hander is dominating triple-A hitters and currently has a 2.03 ERA after allowing just 24 hits in 31 innings of work. His walk rate is a respectable 3.48 BB/9 and his strikeout rate is excellent at 10.74 K/9. Tillman has also not allowed a home run despite allowing more flyball outs than ground outs.

Vince Mazzaro: With so many young pitchers already having surfaced in Oakland this season, it’s hard to believe there are more on the horizon but there are and Mazzaro is leading the charge. He’s flown under the radar so far in his pro career despite the fact he was selected out of high school in the third round of the 2005 draft. Mazzaro is not flashy and he’s not a strikeout pitcher (6.81 K/9 in triple-A) but he gets a ton of groundball outs.

Honorable Mention: Jake Fox, a converted catcher, is not really a prospect anymore. He’s 26 years old and he can’t really play a position – not even first base. With that said, though, he can absolutely crush the ball and he’s hitting an unbelievable .402/.483/.941 with 14 homers in 102 at-bats. The Cubs should do him a favor and either release him or trade him to a needy American League club so he can at least prove that he’s nothing more than a future Japanese export or a quad-A slugger. In the last article we plugged Josh Whitesell as a player who needed a break and he was called up by Arizona, so here’s hoping lightning strikes twice.