Archive for Chris Davis

The idea of a Fantasy Baseball MVP has been fascinating to me. In baseball’s true award season, many of us (including myself) lament the invocation of the term “value” because the MVP should rightfully be given to each league’s best player.

In fantasy baseball, though, value is paramount. If you drafted Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout with the first-overall pick, you clearly acquired a stud. However, it didn’t take much skill to determine Cabrera and Trout would be elite fantasy players, and with the first-overall pick, you’re expected to choose the best player in the game. That’s one of the perks of drafting first.

Furthermore, we can objectively determine in fantasy baseball which player performed at the highest level throughout the season. We know Miguel Cabrera accumulated the most points in ESPN leagues. Chris Davis was the best, according to Zach Sanders’ rankings from earlier today.

So, the notion of best isn’t relevant when it comes to the Fantasy Baseball MVP. It truly boils down to value. Which player provided elite production without costing a high-round draft pick in snake drafts or a large stack of cash in auction leagues? Because that’s how championships are won.

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Recently I’ve taken a look at early season changes in contact rate and fly ball rate because of Russell Carleton’s research showing we’ve reached the point in the season where the sample for those statistics has become ‘reliable.’ There has been some debate in the comments about what reliable means and how much the small season sample can help us in predicting what a player will do the rest of the season.

I look at it like this. For the statistics that have crossed that reliability threshold,  we can look at the players who have seen the biggest changes in either direction and feel safe that their skill has improved or decreased to some degree. That doesn’t mean regression isn’t coming. It just means that at the end of the year it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a player with an improvement or decline from their career mark in a particular category. Although the improvement or decline at the end of the year is not likely to be as extreme as it is at this point in the season.

Today I want to look at the hitters who have seen the biggest changes in ISO because a fair number of players have now crossed the 160 AB threshhold shown in Carleton’s research. Below are the guys who have seen the biggest increase in ISO. After that, we’ll examine whether some other statistics back up the power surge. And a little bit later we’ll see if we can’t figure out how much regression to expect. Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t know if anyone has told you people yet, but it’s only April and the data we are looking at right now comes from what is known around these parts as a very small sample size. What that means is that there are still five more months….yes, months….of baseball still and numerous players will receive anywhere from 400 to 500 more plate appearances between now and the end of the season. Take a moment. Drink that in. Think about it for a few seconds. And while you do, remember this: a bad trade reputation spreads a lot faster around your league than a good reputation. Unless your league is filled with complete idiots (and that may very well be the case for some of you), your testing of the waters with ludicrous trade offers that you yourself would never accept in a million years is going to potentially come back and bite you in the ass. Read the rest of this entry »

When he slid into second and immediately grabbed his knee, my heart dropped.  The sickening taste of bile crept up my throat and into my mouth as I anxiously awaited for him to stand up, dust himself off and signal to the trainers that he was fine.  When that didn’t happen and he gingerly limped off the field, immediate thoughts of a torn ACL raced through my head.  In three different leagues I grabbed Evan Longoria at the tail end of the first round and until that moment, I wasn’t giving third base another thought.  Now, with news of a partially torn hamstring and a six to eight week recovery period, I’m left here staring at my computer screen, feeling like Kramer when the Kenny Rogers Roasters sign was finally turned off. Read the rest of this entry »

Between all of the injuries and slow starts, it’s expected that everyone in your league is scouring the waiver wire and looking for players to fill in the gaps.  The trick though, is to do it on the cheap this early in the season.  There are far too many people blowing their FAAB budget too soon or wasting a decent waiver priority on a quick-fix band-aid that won’t be playing in a month’s time, so while you need to stay active, you need to be smarter than the next guy in the way you do it. Read the rest of this entry »

By the time you reach the last few rounds of your draft, your remaining options can look pretty scary.  Some people are grabbing middle relievers and potential save vultures, some people are picking up middle infield depth, and some are just stockpiling minor league players hoping that if you throw enough against the wall, something’s bound to stick.  For you, there can be another option and given the fact that we’re so far into the draft, the risk is minimal with a potentially enormous upside.  Laugh if you will, but Baltimore’s Chris Davis can make for an outstanding late round sleeper pick this year.

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As the winter draws to an end and we get closer to pitchers and catchers reporting, the Baltimore Orioles have yet to fill the role of their designated hitter, a spot left vacant when the club opted not to offer Vladimir Guerrero arbitration. 

Obviously there’s still the ability to sign a DH-type player such as Hideki Matsui, Carlos Pena or Johnny Damon, but according to Buster Olney and MLB Trade Rumors, they don’t seem too high on the idea. If that’s really the case and the Orioles fill the job in-house by using the DH-by-committee approach, then that fact coupled with the recent Nick Markakis abdominal surgery opens the door for a very interesting late round sleeper pick — Matt Angle.

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Some notes on two rarely owned first baseman, coming atcha.

Chris Davis | Rangers | 6% Owned

Picture this: One year ago, coming into draft day, I told you that Chris Davis would only be owned in 6% of leagues by the end of the next July. You would have slapped me silly, right? Since he was recalled after the Cliff Lee trade, Davis has brought his MLB K-rate down to the 25% mark, but despite an impressive LD rate, he hasn’t hit a single dinger for Texas this year. His contact% is up 10%+ this year, so he is showing some good signs. However, there is the possibility that he is consumed with not striking out and can’t focus on making hard, solid contact. He was crushing the ball in AAA, so I’d like to give him some time to put all of the pieces together. He still has a ton of power potential, but he may never get the chance to reach it. If he has a low dollar or round value in keeper leagues, he’s worth the roster spot. Otherwise, cut him loose.

Mike Morse | Nationals | 0% Owned

We talked about Morse briefly on the pod a while back, but he deserves a couple of sentences. Morse has shown power potential in the past, thanks to his 6-4 frame, and he looks to be staying healthy long enough to show off his skills. Granted, he’s in his age-28 season, so he’s supposed to be reaching his peak right about now. His sample size is very small, but that doesn’t make the numbers he’s already put up any less impressive. Morse is the right-handed half of a RF platoon in Washington, so his playing time won’t stand to increase without a move. However, if Adam Dunn gets dealt, the Nats might be willing to give Morse a shot at a full time gig. He’s worth a buy in NL-only leagues if you need some help at first base or in the outfield.

Chris Davis, Rangers (Owned in seven percent of Yahoo leagues)

Justin Smoak’s Seattle-bound, as the 2008 first-round pick is the prime player acquired by the M’s in the six-player deal sending Cliff Lee to Arlington. That clears the path to big league playing time for Davis, who’ll take over first base duties for the first-place Rangers. Is the third time a charm for Davis, or will his bat fall flat again?

Texas’ fifth-round pick in the ’06 draft has bounced back and forth between the majors and Triple-A Oklahoma City over the past two seasons. The Rangers handed him an everyday spot both years, but Davis’ hacking and contact issues led to demotions in July of ’09 and April of 2010. In the majors, the 6-4, 235 pound lefty batter has crushed the ball when he has gotten a hold of it — he’s got a .221 ISO in 792 career plate appearances, with 18.6% of his fly balls ending up in the cheap seats. His plate discipline, by contrast, has been putrid.

Davis has walked in just 6.2% of his PA, while whiffing 34.6%. His strike zone is huge — here are Davis’ outside swing percentages over the 2008-2010 seasons, divided by the MLB average that season:

2008: 1.47
2009: 1.35
2010: 1.15

Keep in mind that the 2010 figure is based on just 56 PA. Chasing so many pitches off the plate, Davis has often gotten behind in the count. His career first pitch strike percentage is 62.9, while the MLB average is 58-59%.

Contact has also been a big issue — Davis has connected 65.5% of the time that he pulls the trigger overall (81% MLB average), including 74.7% of the time he swings at an in-zone offering (88% MLB average). Over the past three calendar years, he’s got the third-lowest total contact rate and the second-lowest Z-contact rate in the majors (minimum 500 PA).

With plus pop but also a tendency to swing at anything from Lubbock to Houston, Davis has been a Mike Jacobs doppelganger to this point — his big league career triple-slash is .253/.301/.474, with a .330 wOBA and a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA that’s two percent below average (98 wRC+). Happily, the 24-year-old has thumped pitchers with the RedHawks. In 293 PCL PA, Davis batted .354/.403/.555 (his career line in Triple-A is .341/.407/.571 in 614 PA). On the positive side, he hit for power (.201 ISO with Oklahoma City in 2010) and whiffed less than a quarter of the time (24.3 K%). However, that line was boosted by .434 BABIP, and he still wasn’t working many walks (7.8 BB%).

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects Davis to bat .244/.297/.461. CHONE anticipates a .269/.319/.470 line. Davis’ ability to drive the ball makes him an intriguing add in AL-only leagues, but he’s going to have to tighten his strike zone to finally stick at the highest level.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants (16%)

The 20-year-old lefty might not garner quite the same prospect praise these days — where once he cracked the mid-90’s with his fastball, Bumgarner now sits around 90 MPH. His secondary stuff (a low-80’s slider and changeup, as well as a low-70’s curve) remains a work in progress, too. That being said, he’s still worthy of consideration in NL-only formats.

Bumgarner burst on to the scene in 2008, using his high-octane heat to post rates of 10.4 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 and a 1.71 FIP in 141.2 IP. According to Minor League Splits, Bumgarner’s park-and-lucked adjusted FIP in the Low-A South Atlantic League was 2.99. With his velocity on the wane in 2009, the North Carolina prep product’s K rate took a tumble — in 131.1 innings spent mostly in the Double-A Eastern League (he opened the year in the High-A Cal League), Bumgarner had 6.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a park-and-luck-adjusted 4.42 FIP.

He got a late-season cameo with the Giants, but Bumgarner opened 2010 in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. Logging 82.2 innings, the 6-4, 215 pound southpaw punched out 6.4 batters per nine innings, walked 2.4 per nine and had a 4.31 park-and-luck adjusted FIP. Madison has made three starts for San Fran so far, with a 15/5 K/BB ratio and a 4.19 xFIP in 22 IP.

Any owner considering a Bumgarner pick up will need to keep his workload in mind — he has thrown 104.2 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2010, just 37 frames away from his previous career high established in the Sally League in ’08. The Giants could occasionally skip him or push his starts back. ZiPS thinks he’ll be useful when he does take the mound (5.94 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 4.01 FIP). CHONE is less sanguine — a 4.98 neutralized ERA, with 6.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. Perhaps Bumgarner isn’t, at least at the moment, the power pitcher we anticipated. But he still could be an above-average MLB starter.

Once again it’s time for the companion piece to the rankings post from Thursdays. We broke down the first basemen this week, and it seemed that the position was deep, with players like Billy Butler, ranked fourteenth on our list, still capable of putting up .280/30/100 years. There’s a lot of value to be found after the top first basemen are off the board.

But are there great options once the first 15 first basemen are gone? There’s definitely a steep increase in risk. Zach Sanders did a good job breaking down the risk versus reward for Chris Davis this week, and Davis’ power potential is definitely worth the lower draft cost in 2010. Russell Branyan offers a similar power upside, but with his career strikeout rate at almost 40% (38.9% career) he’s actually even riskier in the batting average department. It is worth noting that he’s significantly improved his strikeout rate in the past two years (31.8% and 34.6% in 2008 and 2009 respectively), and if he holds on to that improvement, he could repeat his numbers from 2009.

Once you pass the whiff-or-bomb section of the rankings, it starts to look meager. People will be tempted to take James Loney earlier than they should, but he is a player that embodies the fallacy that all young players get better. Almost 1800 plate appearances into his career, though, we know what Loney is. He’s a line-drive-hitting (21.4% career) worm-burner (43.4% ground ball, 35.3% fly ball career) with below-average power (9% HR/FB career). Unless he gets lucky and has his career year, there’s no reason to think that Loney will do any better than hit .280+ with 15 or so home runs, and there are plenty of players that can do that and cost less in the draft.

Consider that you can probably get Lyle Overbay many rounds later, and Overbay is just as likely to hit .270 with 16 or so home runs. Don’t overpay for the ten points of batting average in this case, especially since Overbay’s declining batting average is actually easily managed – it is the result of declining splits. While Overbay used to be okay against lefties (.711 OPS career) he’s been terrible the last couple of years (.534 and .540 OPS versus southpaws the last two years). If you can manage Overbay daily, you can take advantage of his good split against right-handers (.847 OPS career) which was still strong the last two years (.905 in 2009, .865 in 2008). Provided that he ends up in a good position in real-life baseball, and that his fantasy owner finds a caddy for those days against lefties, Overbay makes a great late value pick.

Jorge Cantu is also an intriguing later-round value. Cantu proved that he is consistently inconsistent from year to year by following up a strong 2008 (.277, 29 home runs) with a year that looked completely different (.289, 16 home runs) in 2009. One thing that pops out in the numbers is that when his strikeout rate is high, his power his greater and his batting average is weaker. So, while it is great that he is walking more and striking out less as he ages, it makes predicting his power and batting average in 2010 difficult. Complicating the prediction process further is the fact that his team is unsettled and he is a candidate for a trade as he becomes more expensive. Bill James likes Cantu for .277 and 18 home runs next year (but with a few more strikeouts than in 2009), and, though seemingly rare with James’ projections, there is a chance for the player to outproduce those power numbers.