Archive for chris carter

In 2015, just 41 players hit 25 homers or more. Lowering the cut line to 20 homers bumps the total of players to reach that threshold up to 64. As one of the standard scoring categories, homers are desired, but there are only so many dingers to go around. Getting top-shelf power is usually attached to a premium draft selection, but the following three players hit 24 or more homers in 2015 and are being selected after pick 265 on average in NFBC drafts as of March 24th.

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The days of highway robbery early-season trades are a thing of the past, but it’s rarely too early to kick the tires on making trades. I’ve identified a five players who make for strong trade targets — depending on league type and settings, obviously. A pair of sluggers who could be had at a discount are joined by a white-hot hitting veteran and a couple of right-handed pitchers with varying degrees of success thus far. Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Carter is off to a bad start. This is an unambiguously true fact. Jeff Sullivan, among other Twitterers (Tweeters?), have succinctly illuminated this unambiguously true fact:

selection of players with ISO of .000 Curtis Granderson Brandon Phillips Desmond Jennings Logan Morrison Chris Carter

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) April 21, 2015

Carter has supplemented the zero extra-base hits with four singles, 21 strikeouts and nary a run batted in to speak of through 51 plate appearances. (FYI, that’s a 41.2-percent strikeout rate.) His atrociously bad start is the talk of the Twitter town, and it has Astros Manager A.J. Hinch dropping him in the batting order. As of last night, Carter’s ownership had dropped to 67.7 and 73 percent in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues, respectively, as owners have jumped ship.
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Mike Podhorzer and Chad Young embarked on a journey–quest to find an offensive expected (x)HR/FB rate.

Based on batted ball distance and angle, you can go to Baseball Heatmaps (BHM) and find expected versus actual homers or verify HR/FB ratios through HR+FB average distance.

Here’s an uber simple descriptive balls-in-play (BIP) expected homer (xHR) formula:

xHR = PA*Contact%*OFFB%*HR/FB. Looking at the outcomes from last year we have the following list first ordered by the most likely regressions:

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Just in case you didn’t know, Chris Carter finished the season tied for second in home runs with Giancarlo Stanton. Also in the top five were Nelson Cruz, Mike Trout and Jose Abreu. One of these is obviously not like the others, although Cruz is a cut below Stanton, Trout and Abreu yet still a cut above Carter. We all know that Carter is a one-trick pony (or a three-true outcome pony), but it’s amusing how different he is from the rest of this group when you look at something other than home runs. For example, the three studs in the top five all had a wOBA over .400 for the year while Carter’s was .346. And those three studs all contributed at least 40 offensive runs more than average while Carter contributed just shy of 13 more than average.

For the purposes of this column, it’s more important to note that the production of all four other guys in the top five of home runs was essentially worth $30 or more. Carter’s production was worth about $15. To be fair, Carter vastly out-earned the $1 at which I had him valued in the preseason, but this just illustrates how truly limiting the batting average is even when the power production is as good as you can expect it to be. Read the rest of this entry »

Unless you live under a rock, you’re likely aware that DraftStreet was recently bought out by DraftKings. Given that this time slot was previously designated for the discussion of daily strategy for Draftstreet contests, I’ve got to come up with some new material. But I’m going to milk the DraftStreet cow for all it’s worth and draw on it as a source of material for one more week. Because you can no longer play on Draftstreet, I want to take a look at how the scoring systems differ on the two sites you most likely transferred your money to, DraftKings and FanDuel. Today we’ll look at how the differing scoring systems affect hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

I hope that I’ve been giving it to you straight. On that note, these recommendations aren’t the most inspired. Oh, look: a guy who hit two bombs yesterday. Check it out: a recent call-up who was raking while in the minors.

Which kind of brings me to a larger point: It’s not often that I find players inspiring enough to recommend. Obviously, I’ve done it. I’ve been doing it for years … sometimes well, sometimes not so much. As far as the players go, I mean. Perhaps I’m just feeling particularly cynical or depressed.

What kind of recommendations do you want to see? I second-guess just about any name I come up with because of the multitude of league formats out there and, as a result, the usefulness of a rec. To me, there’s never enough context. I’d love to see what kinds of things readers want in a list of recommendations.

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In last year’s Bold Predictions, I strongly advocated Jean Segura and Jarrod Parker, while steering people away from Starlin Castro. Those surely helped fantasy owners to various extents. However, we’ll ignore the fact that I predicted Brett Anderson to be a top-30 starter. Sorry about that.

Let’s get to the bold predictions for 2014.

(1) Chris Carter will hit at least 40 home runs and be a top-25 outfielder.

Earlier this offseason, I noted how Chris Carter’s hitting profile compared favorably to that of Chris Davis from a year ago, leading one to believe the power spike could be possible. Carter has also hit 39 homers in a single season before in the minors, so it’s not as if we’re worried about the requisite power being present. Furthermore, the 27-year-old slugger didn’t do the one thing everyone thought he would do last season: mash the baseball in Minute Maid Park.

Minute Maid Park is extremely friendly to right-handed hitters, largely due to the Crawford Boxes, and Carter did little damage there. If his numbers bounce back at home and he’s able to continue his power-hitting ways on the road, we could be looking at one of the biggest power breakout seasons of the year. Considering he’s currently going 193 overall in drafts — behind the likes of Jed Lowrie, Kendrys Morales, and Alejandro De Aza — I’m buying hard on Chris Carter as we head into the 2014 regular season.

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This is a subject I tackled last year, but the basic idea for this article is that people playing in leagues that use non-traditional roto categories may not be equipped with proper draft materials. Almost any set of rankings you can find online are compiled with the standard 5×5 roto categories in mind. Some sites may have rankings published specifically for leagues that replace batting average with OBP, but the vast majority assume standard categories. If you’re using a set of rankings from a site or magazine, you’re doing yourself a disservice unless those rankings were designed for OBP leagues.

I’ve compiled my own projections for 242 hitters to generate my own rankings, and I’ve generated rankings specifically for standard 5×5 leagues and leagues that have replaced batting average with OBP. I want to highlight the players who gain the most in OBP leagues and the players who are hurt the most when OBP replaces average. I base my rankings off a number Zach Sanders calls Fantasy Value Above Replacement (FVARz). Essentially I assign each player a value for each category and add them all up while adjusting for positional scarcity.

Below I’ve included two lists; one shows the players whose FVARz increases the most when OBP replaces average, and the other shows the players whose FVARz decreases the most. I’ve also included their ranking among hitters and auction values for both batting average and OBP leagues. Over on a site of which I’m the managing editor, TheFantasyFix.com, I’ve posted how the rankings and auction values change for all 242 hitters I have projections for when the switch is made to OBP. You can find that here. All values are based on 10-team leagues with 25-man rosters, 13 starting hitter slots and three bench slots. If you have questions about the methodology, the charts or anything else, hit me up in the comments. Read the rest of this entry »

For a team that is in full on rebuilding mode, it’s a little strange that the Astros infield is likely to be populated by the same players that were there last year. It’s a good thing to some degree because it means they’ve found a few guys who can stick at their position. The only bad news is that the guys they hope will stick at the remaining positions aren’t quite ready for the show yet.

The strength of the current infield is most definitely up the middle. Jose Altuve and Jason Castro had the most fantasy value on the team last year according to both our valuations and ESPN’s player rater. Despite the infield being stagnant, the outfield is going to look a bit different with Dexter Fowler now on the squad and George Springer on the way. That’s going to help the fantasy value of Altuve and Castro. Steamer projects Altuve to score 21 more runs than he did last year and projects Castro for 13 more RBI. Steamer is actually the most conservative of the projection models on Castro’s RBI total. Oliver has him at 78 RBI, and the fan projections have him at 74.

Aside from the shared benefit that will be the improved lineup around them, Altuve and Castro could actually be headed in different directions this year. Read the rest of this entry »