Archive for chad qualls

First, the ?’s.

Second, the historical K%’s.

And of course, the Grid…

1) The ?’s

Angels at Twins: Glen Perkins has a sore neck (received a MRI after tingling, but there was no structural damage). Ron Gardy said he should be back within a few a days so I wouldn’t jump to the waiver wire for anyone. We didn’t get a chance to see who would have had the opportunity to close out the games for the Twins tonight. While it was presumably Jared Burton, he received the loss, getting beat by a Albert Pujols double after a single (Cron) and walk (Trout) and then Anthony Swarzak let in the inherited runner.  Huston Street earned save #37. That’s 3 straight appearances for Street and he could potentially use the day off tomorrow. He only has 2 k’s in through his last 5 appearances, and his win yesterday came from a blown save. He induced only 1 whiff from 6 swings tonight.

Astros at Athletics: Sean Doolittle had a successful bullpen session today and should be activated next week. Until then, it’s still Eric O’Flaherty closing out games. David Wiers called O’Flaherty a wild-card for the closing role prior to the season and the ground ball rate (58+%) and weak contact (.213 BABIP) holds true. Tonight, Luke Gregerson pitched a scoreless 9th for the win. Heck, if you’re own a hold league, why not own the entire Oakland bullpen next year?

Chad Qualls remains under the weather with a case of the shaky qualls. He let both of Scott Feldman’s inherited runners score and then gave up the winning single to blow a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the 9th. I would think and hope that Tony Sipp is next up  for the closing role. Other than a shellacking on 8/25 (4BB and 4 ER without recording an out), he’s been lights out since 8/12 (12 K’s, 0 BB’s and only 1 hit). Yesterday, he struck out 4 of 7 batters. I’d like to see him with the gig.

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In lieu of a Waiver Wire piece today, we’ll take a look at the worst bullpen in the major leagues. Because saves are saves, that’s why. And no fantasy owner is looking for All-Stars on the waiver wire (or no sane fantasy owner).

In the second-to-last game before the break, interim manager Kirk Gibson, who has not yet named a closer, was finally faced with a save situation. Who would he pick? Let’s run down the list of his available ‘talent:’

Aaron Heilman
With a strikeout-to-walk ratio that’s been under two for three years in a row, and an FIP that’s been closer to five than four over that same stretch, Heilman has shown us who he is, and it’s not good. It’s hard not to go over the top here, but this is the bare truth: under no circumstances should a decent team consider Heilman as their closer. Of course, this is not a decent team. But even a rebuilding team shouldn’t really consider for their closer position a pitcher with a 4.94 xFIP and 31 years in his rear view mirror. So let’s hope that Gibson had sense enough to move on… which he did, sort of.

Esmerling Vazquez
Vazquez is striking people out (9.79 K/9), and has a decent-enough xFIP (4.11), and is also young (27). But Vazquez also walks too many (4.75 BB/9), has a poor groundball percentage (34.2% this year, 40% career), and isn’t being used in high-leverage situations (0.94 gmLI). Of course, maybe this team isn’t creating enough high-leverage situations, so Vazquez actually looks like a decent option given the putridity of this bullpen. But no, in this game, on July 10th, Vazquez actually recorded his first hold since May 22nd by pitching his seventh-straight scoreless and fifth-straight walk-less appearance in the eighth inning. Vazquez is moving up the depth chart, but he’s not there yet. He’s worth watching, though.

Chad Qualls
The veteran had been pitching better since losing the closer title earlier in the month. That is to say, he had put together a string of four scoreless appearances from June 29th to July 5th. He had only walked two batters since June 9th. He had given up one home run since May. Of course, Qualls also had given up 13 earned runs since the beginning of June, so the record was spotty. Then there’s also the fact that he’s in the last year of his contract on a team going nowhere. There’s no real reason to play him for the future, especially when the luck is really not going his way (.468 BABIP! 50.5% LOB%!). Qualls is still a good pitcher, but does Arizona care?

Sam Demel
Demel is the dark horse. He came over in the Conor Jackson trade, and has been dealing ever since, on a level that seems commensurate with his minor league performances. He was the Triple-A closer in the A’s organization, and had been sporting an 8.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in Sacramento. Well, now in Arizona, he’s got a 8.25 K/9 and 1.50 BB/9 (and therefore a nice 3.03 xFIP). If he can continue exhibiting that control, he could be a great closer, but that’s no given, as you can see from his 4.5 BB/9 in the minors. On the other hand, he’s the only reliever in Arizona with a good groundball rate (52.9%). The problem is, he’s being rewarded with mop-up time in bad games (0.69 gmLI, and his past six appearances have come in games decided by an average of 6.33 runs). This meat is grabbing pine. Maybe Gibson will notice him eventually, but he didn’t on July 10th.

Juan Gutierrez
Not to ruin the ‘surprise,’ but Gutierrez was the winner, after Heilman came on in the top of the ninth and got two outs but left two on for Qualls, who came in and gave up two runs without recording an out. So Gibson actually reached for two guys before he got to Gutierrez, and not without reason. Gutierrez is not striking out a ton of batters this year (7.52 K/9) or career (7.87 K/9), walks a bit too much (3.62 BB/9), and has a major Achilles’ heal when it comes to groundballs (29% this year, 36% career). If the team goes young, Vazquez and Demel are better options. If the team goes with ‘experience,’ Qualls is a better option (if they can see past the bloated ERA).

In the end, the problem is that Gibson has no real solid options to go to. That makes it hard to predict what will happen. If a dynasty-leaguer is looking at the situation, it has to be Demel as the pickup, and he does look like the best pitcher in the pen right now. If a redraft manager thinks that Gibson will be forward-looking and can see past a bad ERA, it’s Qualls. If they want to go by Gibson’s first attempt, it’s Heilman. IF it’s who succeeded last, it’s Gutierrez. Good luck hunting!

It’s terrible to be inside on a Tuesday in the summer, but here are a couple players that will set your mind right by virtually putting you on the pitch to use a world cup metaphor. Either that, or they will help you win your league.

Aaron Heilman, Arizona (9% owned)
The worst bullpen in the majors is moving their closer out of the role according to AJ Hinch today. This, despite Chad Qualls being the only pitcher in the pen with an xFIP under four. Well, no matter, it looks like the team will be giving interim save chances to Heilman, the only pitcher in the bullpen with an FIP under four. Seriously, this pen is terrible – their league-worst ERA (7.33) is almost two runs worse than second-to-last place (Milwaukee, 5.88). The only other option is possibly Esmerling Vazquez, who has the best strikeout rate in the pen (9.53 K/9) but has a correspondingly high walk rate (4.76 BB/9) and a mediocre-to-poor groundball rate (37.3%). At least he doesn’t have Juan Gutierrez problems with the fly ball (27.5%). Last but not least is newcomer Sam Demel, fresh off his trade from Oakland – but let Joe Pawlikowski and David Golebiewski run you through the Arizona ramifications for the big trade today. It seems Demel has some hurdles to clear first, like actually pitching well in the major leagues. In the meantime, there’s Nick Pieocoro, the Arizona Republic beat writer, saying that AJ Hinch announced that Heilman gets the save chances for now, and my more lengthy run-down over at Bloomberg Sports.

James McDonald, Los Angeles (0% owned)
This is pure speculation that is most useful to those in the deepest of leagues. But let me lay out the reasons McDonald might be up soon. First, Chad Billingsley went on the 15-day DL today with a groin strain. Second, the replacement for the injured Vincente Padilla, Ronald Belisario, has started two games since 2007. Third, Vincente Padilla himself just got rocked in his first rehab start and may miss another start to extended rehab. Fourth, McDonald is on the 40-man roster and is currently starting. Sure, he has a 5.05 ERA and 1.51 WHIP right now, but he’s playing in a tough league and and still has 47 strikeout in 46.1 innings so far this year. The only other pitcher at AAA that’s showing anything is Seth Etherton, who is not on the 40-man roster. Etherton is a name to remember, though, because he does have a non-adjusted 3.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts in 36 innings. I don’t see the team wanting to drop an actual prospect from the 40-man to make room for the 33-year-old journeyman Etherton (6.18 major league career FIP). And for those that think that McDonald has no upside, there are two simple numbers that say he should be given another shot: he owns a 9.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 career in the minor leagues. THIS might finally be the year, when they turn to him with no other options and he wasn’t even pitching well in the minors. Stranger things have happened.

To give credit were credit may or may not be due, I stole this headline from the New York Daily News’ Jesse Spector. What is twitter good for if not for some good ole’ fashioned idea-stealing, even if Paul Bourdett and I have been arguing about Chad Qualls since spring training. In fact, Spector, Amanda Rykoff, Jay Jaffe and Dan Wade all created the somewhat-facetious hash tag #ChadQuallsSupportGroup after last night’s implosion by the Arizona closer.

With the “Follow Friday” portion of the article complete (way to mix formats!), it’s time to wonder out loud if last night’s work really was an implosion, if Qualls is suited for the closer role long-term, if he may be the next to lose his role, and who might take the mantle from him. In order.

First, it’s important to realize that this may be much ado about nothing. Yes, Qualls had a bad night. Here’s the play by play:

– R. Furcal walked
– R. Furcal to second on wild pitch
– M. Kemp flied out to center
– A. Ethier grounded out to second, R. Furcal to third
– M. Ramirez singled to shallow left, R. Furcal scored
– J. Loney singled to center, M. Ramirez to second
– C. Blake singled to shortstop, M. Ramirez to third, J. Loney to second, M. Ramirez scored, J. Loney to third, C. Blake to second on shortstop S. Drew’s fielding error
– R. Martin intentionally walked
– R. Johnson hit for R. Ortiz
– R. Johnson grounded out to shortstop

That Casey Blake ‘single’ was actually, by many accounts, an error by Stephen Drew. If Drew doesn’t sail the ball over first base on that play, the inning is over and Qualls has two saves in three chances and fewer backbiters. Otherwise, he was mostly just guilty of a little wildness.

The fact remains that Qualls is walking over six per nine, only striking out four per nine, and has struggled now through spring training and the opening weeks of the season. In fact, if you extend this period back to June of last year and include spring training, Qualls has had a stretch in which he’s put up a 5.00 ERA, 1.27 WHIP with 5.8 K/9 and 1.4 B/9 rates. He’s also blown six saves in 19 chances over that time. It’s not a great record in what amounts to a significant amount of time for a closer. Because his control is usually so spectacular, and has been even over this mediocre stretch, it’s tempting to say that the control will return and that the low strikeout rate is not an issue (especially considering his better 7.3 K/9 career rate). However, he also has 10 hits per nine innings over this time, so he’s been very hittable. Can you afford to have a closer that only punches out a half a guy per inning and gives up a hit per inning? Since the time period includes more than half of last year, we can’t just blame this on his offseason knee surgery either. Perhaps it has more to do with the drop in velocity and effectiveness of his slider.

In any case it’s an open question that will ultimately be decided by the Arizona management. But blowing six saves in 19 chances is not going to keep you your job very long. Fantasy owners are right to go looking for his possible replacement, Juan Gutierrez, on the waiver wires today. Since he figured things out at the beginning of July last year, the Arizona youngster has put up a 2.33 ERA, 0.99 WHIP with 6.8 K/9 and 3.49 B/9 rates. He’s got great stuff and has been proving himself, and he has been making good progress defeating his main weakness (walks). It may not be long until we see him take the mantle from Qualls. Don’t drop an established closer, but if you can make room for Gutierrez, now is the time to do so.

Three day games have already gotten underway and there are seven more contests on deck. Let’s get to some fantasy links as the season marches on…

Dustin Hockensmith of Imaginary Diamond lists 10 young players who could prove to be fantasy sleepers in 2010. As Hockensmith notes, “Some of these guys — Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Hanson, Neftali Feliz and Rick Porcello — are making an impact right now.”

The boys over at Fake Teams work through a discussion-inducing question: “Who would you rather have, Justin Upton or Matt Kemp?” Both have shot up in fantasy value this season and will be taken among the top tier of outfielders in drafts next season.

Not ready to begin thinking about 2010? Fantasy Baseball Junkie has you covered with a look at “vulture win opportunities” for the month of September. The blog post suggests adding guys like Jamie Moyer and Alfredo Aceves, who leach off starters like Pedro Martinez and Joba Chamberlain, respectively, for wins. The strategy may come off as odd, but it does make some sense.

With Chad Qualls, Mariano Rivera and Huston Street hitting the bench recently with injuries, there are an awful lot of saves up for grabs. Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse runs us around some of those situations.

Troy Patterson of Roto Savants previews Buster Posey’s September fantasy value. For those who didn’t catch the news, the elite prospect was called up to the majors on Wednesday to aid the Giants in their push toward the playoffs. Bengie Molina is hurting and reportedly disgruntled, so there may be some playing time available.

Rotoworld’s Matt Stroup spins us around the league with a group of recommended waiver adds. Brian Joura handles that duty wonderfully for RotoGraphs, but it’s always nice to have multiple perspectives.

Have a link, comment, question or fantasy blog you think I should be reading? Send me an e-mail and tell me about it. Or find me on Twitter.

There are a couple of day games set to get underway around the baseball world. Let’s dive into some fantasy links before the action starts.

Matt Stroup of Rotoworld likes the Rangers’ Chris Davis, the Cardinals’ John Smoltz and, surprisingly, the Rays’ Pat Burrell in this week’s version of “Waiver Wired.” Burrell, as Stroup notes, is 14-for-35 (.400) since receiving two days off in mid-August with a sore neck. He has mashed two homers and seven RBI in that span, and is available in most fantasy leagues.

Charlie Saponara of Fantasy Baseball 365 takes note of the possible fill-ins if closers Chad Qualls and Trevor Hoffman are moved before the August 31 waiver trade deadline. “Though there is a better chance that nothing happens than a trade actually being made (both GM’s would expect a decent return), we should be prepared to add replacement closers should something go down,” writes Saponara.

Eric Cunningham of RotoTimes.com is still monitoring platoon situations throughout the league, including the Rangers’ catching depth and the Cardinals’ interchangeable outfield.

R.J. White of AOL Fanhouse thinks Cole Hamels may be righting the ship, using the left-hander’s impressive outing against the Pirates Wednesday night as evidence. “Hamels actually has been better than his ERA and WHIP indicate, as he now has 126 Ks versus just 33 BBs this season,” writes White. “I’ll take that K/BB ratio from my pitcher any day, as nine times out of ten, the ERA and WHIP will be sparkling.”

Alex Geshwind of Fantasy Bullpen is ready to discuss the 2010 fantasy baseball season (must be a Cubs fan), and begins with a look at the catching position. Here’s an interesting question he poses: “Is Joe Mauer a first-rounder?”

Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! Sports reviews the status of closers around the league, including the frustrating developments in Philadelphia. In case you’ve lost track, Brad Lidge now has nine blown saves and Ryan Madson, his likely backup, has blown five. “Madson is in the middle of a strong campaign (3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) so there’s no need to pile on with him,” writes Pianowski, “but you have to wonder if the Phillies will try to get creative as they angle for the playoffs.”

Have an article or column you think others would like to see? Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter.

Perhaps lost in the hoopla of recent, more highly-anticipated, promotions such as Matt Wieters and David Price, the Arizona Diamondbacks organization called up one of the key players in its future.

Reliever Daniel Schlereth was promoted from double-A on May 29. The hard-throwing left-hander was the club’s first round draft pick (26th overall) out of the University of Arizona in the 2008 MLB amateur draft. It took the 23-year-old hurler just 25 minor league games to prove his MLB-readiness in the Diamondbacks’ eyes. During that span, he posted a 1.45 ERA and rates of 5.5 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9. Obviously, the walk rate is a concern at this point, especially with it sitting at 6.2 BB/9 in 2009 at double-A.

There are definitely some other key statistics with Schlereth’s 2009 minor league performance to date, including the nine hits allowed in 19 innings (4.3 H/9). He’s tough to hit when he gets the ball over the plate. As well, his fastball sits in the low 90s (He’s averaging 93 mph in his two MLB games) and it can touch the mid-to-upper 90s. His curveball is also very good and he’s quite confident in it, as witnessed by his willingness to throw it 43% of the time in his brief MLB career (two appearances, and innings).

In those two big league innings, Schlereth has yet to allow a run and he’s walked one while also striking out a batter. Of the outs made in play, four have come via the groundball and just one was in the air. In his pro career, Schlereth has a 55.4% groundball rate. His line-drive rate is even better at just 9.2% (His BABIP-allowed is .254).

The southpaw reliever is not going to inherit the Diamondbacks’ closer role right away, but he is definitely the odds-on-favorite to claim the job in the not-too-distant future. Current closer Chad Qualls is just 30 years old, but he’ll be a free agent after the 2010 season and the Arizona organization is one of the more cost-conscious clubs around. Qualls is also just 27-for-49 in career save opportunities, so he is not amongst the elite closers in the game (although he is 12-for-14 this season).

Schlereth is a player that deserves to be monitored over the next year or two as he should eventually begin to earn save opportunities. If Arizona wanted to be proactive, the club could start mixing in the save opportunities now, with the season already looking bleak in terms of playoff opportunities. Schlereth and Qualls could make a nice lefty-righty closer combo, with lefties hitting .325 off the latter in 2009.