Archive for Carlos Zambrano

Here is the latest update to Week 12 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: LeBlanc, A. Miller

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Beckett, Godfrey

Dillon Gee – How much money do you think you could have made in Vegas at the beginning of the year by placing a wager for Gee to make the All-Star team? He couldn’t even make the starting rotation for the Mets, who spent the offseason signing every injury reclamation pitcher they could. But Gee is 7-0 and in his last six starts, he’s 5-0 with a 1.82 ERA with a 3.0 K/BB ratio. And the only reason he’s not 6-0 is because he had to leave his last start after four innings (no runs, one hit) due to a rain delay.

Gee’s stuff is frequently described as underwhelming yet he has a double-digit SwStr%, which would be a top-20 mark in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. He’s added over two full strikeouts per nine to his mark from last year, he keeps his walks to an acceptable rate (3.0 BB/9) and doesn’t give up many home runs (0.55 HR/9).

His matchups this week are mixed, with a home start against the A’s and a road start in Texas. But at this point, Gee should be owned in every league and starting in all but the shallowest of mixed leagues. Get him into your lineup.

Derek Holland – In his last five games, Holland has pitched 31 innings and allowed eight home runs. Not surprisingly, he has a 5.52 ERA in this span. But he also has 27 Ks and a 2-1 record, which basically sums up Holland – he’s going to get you strikeouts and there’s a good chance he can get you wins, too. This week he has home starts against the Astros and the Mets. He has a 6.68 ERA at home this year and a 1.742 WHIP.

It seems like these would be good matchups for Holland, as Houston and New York are both near the bottom of the NL in HR. But Holland has been knocked around at home despite allowing just 3 HR in 31 IP. So he has just been hit unlucky. But the Mets and Astros are both above average in the NL in hits and New York is also above average in walks.

In making the decision with Holland it feels a little like going around in circles and that you can come up with a justification for whichever side for which you are predisposed. But ultimately if you have the depth, I would think this would be a good week to leave Holland on the bench.

Chris Narveson – Like Holland, Narveson is another SP option who may not be top tier, but who is worthwhile because he has a nice K-rate (8.04 K/9). But he is maddeningly inconsistent. In his last seven starts, Narveson has three where he’s given up 0 or 1 ER and four where he’s allowed four or more ER. One thing where Narveson has been a little more dependable is his home/road split. His ERA at home (3.86) is a full run lower than his road number (4.93). And while we usually think of Miller Park as a HR-friendly venue, Narveson has only allowed 2 HR in 32.2 IP at home compared to 5 in 45.2 IP on the road. This week Narveson has two home starts against AL clubs who will have to forfeit their DH. Make sure he is in your lineup this week to enjoy the Ks and hopefully pick up a win or two.

Carl Pavano – A rough start still has Pavano’s overall numbers looking pedestrian but he has a 2.24 ERA and a 1.228 WHIP in his last seven starts, with Quality Starts in his last three outings. But the Twins have not given Pavano much run support this year (3.40 per nine) and the veteran has displayed a big home/road split. At Target Field, Pavano is 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA. But on the road he is 1-4 with a 5.58 ERA. This week he has road starts in San Francisco and Milwaukee. So while he has been pitching better recently, give him the week off if you can.

Carlos Zambrano – Those who believe in karma can look at Zambrano and nod with approval. After having the bullpen blow a win in his first start in June, Zambrano ripped his teammates. And while he apologized, the gods were not appeased, as in his two starts since the outburst, Zambrano has allowed 12 ER in 12.1 IP. So, will his penance be over after two starts or is he in for more payback?

This year, Zambrano has a 5.22 ERA on the road and has allowed 25 BB in 50 IP. It’s tough to win with that walk rate and Zambrano compounds the issue by permitting 6 HR away from Wrigley this year. This week he has two road starts in AL parks, meaning he faces an additional hitter. Keep Zambrano on the bench this week and hope that this will be the end of the repercussions for his remarks.

In today’s edition of NL Starting Pitchers, we look at three starters who aren’t as good as they seem to be.

Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 3.

Brandon Beachy – With 17 Ks in 17.1 IP, you could make a case for starting Beachy on strikeouts alone. Unfortunately, the other categories come into play. Beachy has yet to break into the win column and his ERA and WHIP took it on the chin Thursday night against the Marlins. This week Beachy has two tough road matchups against Kuroda and Lincecum and all signs point to leaving him on the bench this week.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – The good news is that Matsuzaka’s xFIP is half of what his ERA is. The bad news is he has a 6.56 xFIP. This week he gets to face the slugging Blue Jays and then a cross country road trip to take on the Angels. It may be worthwhile to hang onto him for a few more starts to see if he can put it back together, but by all means let him figure things out while he sits on your bench.

Carl Pavano – After getting rocked in his first start, Pavano has put up back-to-back strong outings, allowing just 1 ER and 8 H over 16 IP. He surrendered three gopher balls in his first game but has kept the ball in the park since then. Pavano’s peripherals are worse than his ERA, due mainly to that first outing. A 17-game winner last year, make sure he is in your lineup this week

Jason Vargas – Last year Vargas shocked everyone by winning nine games and putting up a sub-4.00 ERA. Seven of his nine wins came at home, where his ERA was a full two runs lower than his road mark. Vargas got knocked around in his first home start this year, but last time out in Safeco he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 IP. He has two home starts this week and as he’s likely on the waiver wire in your league, he makes an excellent streaming option.

Carlos Zambrano – Another pitcher with two home starts is Zambrano. But unlike Vargas, Zambrano has not shown an extreme preference for pitching in his home park. In fact, Zambrano has a much higher road winning percentage in his career (.676 vs .544). But the reason to start Zambrano this week is his opponents. He faces off against the Padres and Dodgers, two of the weaker offensive teams in the National League. While Zambrano has not pitched particularly well this year, the Cubs offense has provided him with lots of support, as he has two wins despite a 6.11 ERA.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 3 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Johnson, Lincecum, Marcum, Price, T. Hudson, Danks, B. Anderson, Romero, E. Jackson, Liriano, Scherzer, Kuroda, E. Santana, Shields, Lilly, Lewis, T. Wood, Pavano, Lackey, Carmona, Niese, Stauffer, Correia, Jimenez, Tillman, Chen, Fister, Lannan, Arrieta, LeCure, Galarraga, Moseley, Davies, Palmer.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 26. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Mark Buehrle – He has lost back-to-back starts and in his last six games Buehrle is 0-3 with a 5.92 ERA. He has two home starts this week but Buehrle has not been very good at the Cell, with a 4.95 ERA. Put the veteran on your bench this week.

Mike Pelfrey – Citi Field has been very, very good to Pelfrey this season. In road parks, he is 5-6 with a 4.95 ERA. But in his home park, Pelfrey is 10-3 with a 2.87 ERA. In his last five home starts he is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA. In his last five road starts Pelfrey is 1-3 with a 4.76 ERA. He has two home starts this week so get him in your lineup.

Jonathan Sanchez – In his last seven games, Sanchez is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA. During that stretch, he has allowed 17 BB in 45 IP, compared to a 4.29 BB/9 ratio for the entire season. Sanchez faces division opponents Arizona and San Diego this week. He has pitched well against those two teams, with a combined 2.40 ERA in seven games. Get Sanchez in your lineup this week.

C.J. Wilson – Although he has lost his last two decisions, Wilson has been pitching just as well down the stretch as he has most of the season. In his last eight games he is 6-2 with a 2.75 ERA, with 53 Ks in 52.1 IP. Wilson has two home starts this season and while he has a slightly higher ERA in Arlington, he has a 10-2 record in his home park. Make sure Wilson is in your lineup.

Carlos Zambrano – In his last start, Zambrano pitched six shutout innings but came away with a no-decision, which ended a five-start winning streak. Since returning to the rotation, Zambrano is 6-0 with a 1.42 ERA in nine games. His walk rate in this stretch (33 BB in 57 IP) is troubling, but Zambrano has survived thanks to allowing just 1 HR in 57 IP. This week he faces San Diego and Houston. The Astros are last in the NL with 405 walks, nearly 200 behind the league-leading Braves. Houston is also last in the league in HR (105), while San Diego ranks 12th in the 16-team league. Look for Zambrano’s strong pitching to continue and get him active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 26 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Halladay, Jimenez, F. Hernandez, Price, Lee, Buchholz, Haren, E. Santana, Scherzer, Latos, Hanson, W. Rodriguez, E. Jackson, Lackey, B. Anderson, Lilly, Burnett, A. Sanchez, Davis, Slowey, Niese, Volquez, Braden, Matusz, Minor, Galarraga, Stauffer, Carrasco, Sanabia, Francis, Bush, Lohse, Millwood, Drabek, Davies, R. Lopez, Rzepczynski, Pauley, O’Sullivan, Burres, Morton.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 24 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. W, 3.00 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (2 starts)
Enright – Advised to start. 14.85 ERA, K, 2.855 WHIP (2)
Garland – Advised to sit. W, 3.86 ERA, 10 Ks, 0.857 WHIP (2)
Hudson – Advised to start. W, 0.63 ERA, 14 Ks, 0.698 WHIP (2)
Narveson – Advised to start. 5.91 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.500 WHIP (2)

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 22.

Jorge de la Rosa – Last time out against the Braves, de la Rosa allowed just 1 BB in 7 IP. He’s allowed 11 BB in 30.2 IP in his 5 W and 16 BB in 23.1 IP in his 4 L. The key to de la Rosa is his control. This year he has allowed 20 BB in 26.2 road innings and he has road starts this week against the Giants and Padres. So, while de la Rosa has pitched well recently, the matchups do not favor him, especially as the Padres have the fourth-highest walk total in the National League. So, put him on the bench if you can.

Brian Duensing – After starting the season in the bullpen, Duensing moved into the rotation the third week of July. In seven starts this year, Duensing is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA. Additionally, he has allowed just 8 BB in 47.1 IP. With two home starts this week, get Duensing into your lineup.

J.A. Happ – Since arriving in Houston, Happ has posted a 3-2 record with a strong 7.96 K/9. But that strikeout rate is over a full K higher than his career average. Happ has also been lucky with his HR rate, which is 4.7 percent for the season and 4.9 with the Astros. It adds up to an xFIP of 4.90 for Happ. With starts against the Cardinals and in Arizona, give Happ a seat on the bench this week.

Randy Wolf – In his first 21 games, Wolf was 7-9 with a 5.20 ERA. But since then he’s gone 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA in 39 IP. In that span, he has 29 Ks and 10 BB and only 2 HR allowed. That ability to limit the long ball will be tested this week with road games against the Reds and Phillies. If Wolf can keep the ball in the park, look for him to come away with a win this week.

Carlos Zambrano – It has been a roller coaster ride for Zambrano this season but he has been pitching well since moving back into the rotation August 9th. In four starts he is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA. Zambrano had trouble with his control (15 BB in 24 IP) but in his last outing allowed just 1 BB in 8 IP. With home starts against the Pirates and Mets, make sure Zambrano is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 22 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, F. Hernandez, Carpenter, E. Santana, Hughes, Wilson, Cahill, Beckett, Jurrjens, Kuroda, Buehrle, J. Sanchez, Niese, Minor, Cecil, LeBlanc, Saunders, Davis, Matusz, Mazzaro, Bailey, Kendrick, Masterson, Galarraga, Moseley, Maholm, Talbot, Sanabia, Davies, Marquis, Pauley, Misch.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 20 pitchers and how they fared.

Arroyo – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.51 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.047 WHIP (2 starts)
Braden – Advised to start. W, 2.77 ERA, 8 Ks, 0.846 WHIP (2)
Niese – Advised to start. W, 1.50 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.083 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. 2.08 ERA, 16 Ks, 1.154 WHIP (2)
Zito – Advised to sit. 9.35 ERA, 3 Ks, 2.077 WHIP (2)

“Don’t Give Up On…” will be a weekly feature this season, highlighting players who have proven that they’re better than their current slumps would suggest.

No, Chicago Cubs righty Carlos Zambrano is not an ace. And yes, the Atlanta Braves chewed Big Z up and spit him out like a piece of Juicy Fruit that lost its flavor. The 28 year-old surrendered six hits, two walks and eight runs while retiring just four Braves on opening day. But that doesn’t mean that you should make him a scape(billy)goat, trading him for fifty cents on the dollar or outright releasing him.

Granted, there were reasons to expect Zambrano to regress in 2010 even prior to his grisly outing. There was a half-run difference between his 2009 ERA (3.77) and his expected FIP (4.27). His punch out rate climbed back to over eight batters per nine frames after a couple years of decline, but he issued 4.15 BB/9 and benefitted from a low 5.6 home run per fly ball rate (Zambrano’s career rate is 9.1 percent, and the average for pitchers is around 10-12 percent). With more fly balls finding the seats, Zambrano looks like a low-four’s ERA pitcher.

But, owners might be making knee-jerk reactions in giving Z the boot. According to his ESPN player page, Zambrano is owned in 69 percent of fantasy leagues. Following Z’s F-caliber performance against Atlanta, 8.9 percent of his owners let him loose.

Coming into the season, Zambrano was projected for 4.08 FIP by CHONE. Using the CHONE projections available here on the site, I calculated the FIP of all starters to see who matched up with Zambrano. Here are some starters projected for similar FIPs, as well as their ownership percentage in fantasy leagues (from ESPN):

As you can see, six of these starters are owned in all leagues, and Lilly and Blanton (both on the DL) are owned in the vast majority of leagues. When they return to action, their ownership percentages will likely creep up a bit. In “real life” baseball, Big Z is a burden on Chicago’s payroll. Compared to his peers in fantasy, however, Zambrano actually seems undervalued.

If Carlos Zambrano is the best starter on your team in a shallow league, you’re in trouble. But he’s still plenty useful in all formats. One start, no matter how ugly, shouldn’t weigh too heavily in the minds of fantasy owners. There’s a tendency to over-analyze this time of year, trying to infer too much from too small a sample size. Getting caught up in the hyperbole and making a snap decision is a good way to hurt your team in the long run.

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 34 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Zack Greinke – His xFIP was 101 points higher than his ERA, making Greinke a sell high guy. This was a big win for FIP.

Joel Pineiro – After allowing just three home runs in 17 first half games, Pineiro served up eight home runs in 15 games after the break. This was a big win for xFIP.

Tim Lincecum – It was a very good second half of the season for Lincecum, just not as good as the first half. He did have a slightly higher HR/FB rate in the second half, and xFIP did a better job predicting his post-break ERA. Still, those fantasy owners who kept him based on his FIP did not end up disappointed.

Dallas Braden – Made just four starts after the break due to a foot infection. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

Paul Maholm – His second half ERA was lower than his first half one, despite more HR allowed. Still, this was a pitcher that FIP would have identified as a potential buy candidate at the break, so a win for xFIP.

Tim Wakefield – Made just four starts in the second half due to leg and back injuries. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to the lack of playing time.

Clayton Kershaw – He had a 5.0 HR/FB rate at the break and was even better in the second half, as he finished the year with a 4.1 mark. His ERA finished two full runs below what xFIP predicted. This was a big win for FIP.

Derek Lowe – Opponents posted an .888 OPS versus Lowe in the second half of the season, including 10 HR in 331 ABs. This was a big win for xFIP.

Cliff Lee – Everyone thinks the move to the NL turned things around for Lee but he was 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in his first three games with Cleveland after the break. His HR/FB rate has been below 11 percent the past five seasons. This was a big win for FIP.

Carlos Zambrano – This was the closest one, as Zambrano’s second half ERA of 4.14 was just barely closer to his first-half FIP than his xFIP. Zambrano pitched worse in the second half than in the first, but it had nothing to do with his HR rate, which declined slightly from the 5.8 he posted in the first half. This was a slight win for FIP.

Jair Jurrjens – Both FIP and xFIP predicted Jurrjens’ ERA to rise in the second half and instead he pitched even better after the break. If you went strictly by FIP at the break, you would have listened to offers for Jurrjens. If you went by xFIP you were in the sell/cut area. This was a win for FIP.

Jeff Niemann – As with Jurrjens, both of our metrics predicted an ERA rise from Niemann in the second half. FIP had him as a sell while xFIP had him as a sell or cut guy. This was a slight win for FIP.

Nick Blackburn – Yet another pitcher that both metrics forecasted a rise in ERA. Except this time, the actual rise was more drastic than even the more pessimistic xFIP predicted. Since you might have kept him if you used FIP, this was a big win for xFIP.

Edwin Jackson – Pretty much the same thing as with Blackburn above, except you were even more likely to keep Jackson if you used FIP. This was a big win for xFIP.

Mike Pelfrey – The spread with our two metrics was not nearly as great with Pelfrey as it was for Blackburn and Jackson, but the end results were the same. This was a big win for xFIP.

Jon Garland – FIP projected Garland to be virtually the same in the second half as he was in the first half while xFIP had him being noticeably worse. The trade to Los Angeles invigorated Garland, or perhaps it was simply leaving a bad home park, as he finished the year with a 5.29 ERA at Chase Field and a 1.67 ERA at Dodger Stadium. This was a win for FIP, but probably not a pitcher anyone was targeting at the break.

Felix Hernandez – Again, both metrics predicted an ERA rise in the second half, although xFIP was more pessimistic, making him a sell high guy with a difference of 94 points. Hernandez pitched even better after the break, making this a big win for FIP.

Justin Verlander – Both metrics predicted an ERA drop in the second half for Verlander, with FIP being the most optimistic. Verlander pitched well, but saw his ERA go up, making this a win for xFIP.

Brian Bannister – A 3.66 ERA in the first half made Bannister look like a useful pitcher. Both metrics saw an ERA increase, but xFIP was the most pessimistic. This was a big win for xFIP.

C.C. Sabathia – Our two metrics were split on how Sabathia would fare in the second half. With a predicted decrease from his first half ERA, this was a big win for FIP.

Brad Penny – Our two metrics were split again. But Penny’s ERA went up in the second half. This was a win for xFIP, but not many people who used FIP were angling to acquire Penny.

Vicente Padilla – His HR/FB rate went up significantly in the second half, yet Padilla produced a lower ERA after the break, thanks to a move to the NL. Neither metric identified Padilla as a pitcher to target, although FIP came very close to hitting his actual mark.

Jarrod Washburn – Both metrics identified Washburn as a sell candidate as his ERA was 92 points lower than his FIP and 150 points lower than his xFIP. Officially a win for xFIP, although you likely would have made the same decision regardless of which metric you used.

Jered Weaver – A win for xFIP, which had him as a sell, while FIP had him as a listen. There are also extra points for xFIP for exactly predicting his second half ERA.

Joe Blanton – The metrics were split on how Blanton would fare in the second half. This was a big win for xFIP, which forecasted him to be a useful pitcher and he ended up better than that.

Bronson Arroyo – Technically a win for xFIP but not many fantasy players were running out to acquire Arroyo based on his 4.99 first half xFIP.

Jamie Moyer – Repeat the comment from Arroyo, except sub in 5.06 xFIP.

Trevor Cahill – Same as the above two, except with a 5.18 FIP.

Chris Volstad – Our two metrics were split on Volstad. FIP saw him continuing to be a sell/cut guy while xFIP saw him being a useful pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA. This was a win for FIP.

Rick Porcello – Both systems predicted a rise in ERA but FIP elevated him to cut status. This was a win for xFIP.

Braden Looper – The two metrics were split on Looper, with xFIP predicting a drop in ERA. Looper actually pitched worse in the second half but neither system would have advocated acquiring him at the break.

Josh Geer – Made just three starts after the break due to lousy pitching. Not one that either system would have suggested to add.

Rich Harden – While most of the players with above average HR/FB rates have been of little or no value in regards to fantasy, Harden is the exception. Both systems saw him improving on his first half ERA but xFIP was much more bullish. And Harden exceeded those expectations. This was a big win for xFIP.

Randy Johnson – Appeared in just four games after the break due to a rotator cuff strain. Officially a win for FIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

*****

If you made your fantasy decisions this year based on xFIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Pineiro, Lowe, Blackburn, Jackson, Pelfrey, Bannister, Blanton, Harden and to a lesser extent Maholm, Verlander, Weaver and Porcello.

If you made your fantasy decisions based this year based on FIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Greinke, Kershaw, Lee, Hernandez, Sabathia and to a lesser extent Jurrjens and Volstad.

From a pure bulk standpoint, you were better off in 2009 using xFIP at the break. But those who relied on FIP were more likely to make the right call on four of the five pitchers with the lowest ERA in the second half among the 34 pitchers in our sample.

We really cannot make any inferences for the future based on this one small sample. What we can say is that judging strictly from results in 2009 it would be a mistake to ignore FIP completely and absolutely while making fantasy decisions at the All-Star break. This year if you used xFIP you would have made the wrong decisions on some of the best pitchers in the game.

Here is the latest update to Week 21 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

HOU – Rodriguez
STL – Pineiro
CHC – Zambrano

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CHC – Harden

Rodriguez has won seven of his last eight decisions. In that span he has a 2.38 ERA with 23 BB and 63 SO in 72 IP. For the season, Rodriguez’ FIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA due to an 81 percent strand rate. One thing to keep in mind about Rodriguez is that he pitches much better at home despite Minute Maid Park being a hitter-friendly place. Rodriguez is 7-2 with a 1.73 ERA at home compared to a 5-5, 4.21 road mark. Both of the starts for Rodriguez are on the road.

Pineiro and his major league leading 61.1 percent ground ball rate have two home starts this week. After opening the season 6-9, Pineiro is 6-0 over his last nine starts and he pitched well enough to win two other times in that span. Even with his puny SO rate, Pineiro is a must-start now in all leagues, and the two starts this week is a nice bonus.

Zambrano has been on the disabled list with an injured back but is slated to be activated Tuesday following a minor league rehab start where he pitched five scoreless innings and notched five strikeouts. Before landing on the DL, Zambrano was 3-0 in his last five starts with a 2.93 ERA and 26 SO in 27.2 IP. Zambrano has home starts this week against the Nationals and Mets, the two bottom teams in the National League East.

When Carlos Zambrano broke into the major leagues in 2001, he was the epitome of power pitching. The burly 6-5, 255 pounder pumped mid-90’s gas, and though he didn’t always know where it was headed, he racked up big strikeout totals. Zambrano punched out over 7 batters per nine innings between 2002 and 2003, before graduating into 8 K/9 territory. He whiffed 8.07 per nine in 2004 and 8.14/9 in 2006, before culminating at 8.83 K/9 in 2006.

However, as Big Z was racking up the K’s, his control was suffering. After walking about three-and-a-half batters per nine innings in ’04 and ’05, his BB/9 rocketed to 4.84 in 2006. Despite the higher strikeout rates, Zambrano’s controllable skills were headed in the wrong direction:

Zambrano’s Fielding Independent ERA’s, 2003-2006:

2003: 3.47
2004: 3.57
2005: 3.70
2006: 4.14

In 2007, Zambrano’s control took a (relative) step in the right direction, as he cut his walk rate to 4.20 batters per nine innings. However, that improvement seemed to come with a cost, as Zambrano’s K rate fell to 7.36/9. That shift produced further slippage in his FIP, as Big Z posted a career-high 4.58 mark.

Zambrano’s halted his rapidly ascending FIP in 2008, posting a 4.23 figure. He showed further improvement with the free passes (his 3.43 BB/9 was the lowest mark of his career), but Zambrano’s refined control came at the further expense of his strikeout rate. Big Z struck out a downright pedestrian 6.2 batters per nine innings, a far cry from his work just a few seasons prior.

While some might still categorize Zambrano as a power arm, he doesn’t really seem to fit the description anymore. Big Z once lit up the radar guns, but his fastball velocity has dipped in each of the past four seasons:

Zambrano’s fastball velocity, 2005-2008:

2005: 92.8 MPH
2006: 92.2 MPH
2007: 91.6 MPH
2008: 91.3 MPH

The 2008 version of Zambrano was at least more economical with his pitches. He posted his lowest pitches per plate appearance (3.80) and pitches/IP (16.0) since 2003. Big Z has also become more adept at getting batters to chase his offerings outside of the strike zone. His O-Swing% during his high-K 2006 season was 19.8%, but that figure climbed to 25.3% in 2007 and 25.7% this past season. With more pitches being thrown around the strike zone, batters seem less apt to lay off in hopes of coaxing a walk.

The combination of decreased velocity, K’s and walks leads one to believe that Zambrano is making an effort to show better control and put the ball around the plate more often. However, that improved command has significantly cut into his number of swings and misses generated. Once one of the more difficult starting pitchers to make contact with, Zambrano now ranks in the middle of the pack:

Zambrano’s Contact%, 2005-2008

2005: 77.9%
2006: 78.1%
2007: 78.8%
2008: 82.5%

It’s difficult to be very enthusiastic about the new, lower-octane Zambrano. Sure, his control is better. But he’s not going to be confused with Curt Schilling or Mike Mussina any time soon, and his whiff rate has dipped to the point where he’s actually below the NL league average of 6.99 in that department.

A pitcher can certainly be successful with a moderate K rate and worm-burning skills, but typically that sort of profile also requires the ability to paint the corners. Zambrano has improved in that regard, but his gains in the walk department still leave his control rating as just ordinary. When you combine a league-average K rate with a league-average walk rate, you get…a league average pitcher.

Still just 27, Zambrano has already accumulated nearly 1,400 innings on his right arm. That’s a Herculean workload, one that appears to be taken some bite off of his pitches. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference, we find that Zambrano’s most comparable player through age 27 is Ramon Martinez.

Like Zambrano, Martinez routinely crossed the 200-inning mark in his early 20’s, compiling plenty of strikeouts and walks along the way. However, such a massive workload at such a young age cut Martinez’s career short. Martinez’s major league career was effectively over by the age of 30 when his shoulder gave out, though he trudged on a little longer before calling it quits at 33. Perhaps Big Z finds his fastball zip this offseason, but all signs point to his days as a certifiable ace being over. As Martinez can attest, few youthful pitchers overcome such arduous innings totals to enjoy a lengthy career.