Archive for Carlos Silva

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 17. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Jorge de la Rosa – After being lit up in his first two outings since missing two-and-a-half months with a finger injury, de la Rosa had a strong outing his last start, going 6 IP with 8 Ks in a no-decision. With home starts against the Pirates and Cubs, look for de la Rosa to bounce back into the win column this week.

Jon Garland – Regression has hit for Garland, as the early-season ERA which hovered around 2.00 is now up to 3.61, thanks to back-to-back month of ERAs over 5. But Garland still enjoys a big home/road split. He is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA at Petco, where has both of his starts this week. Get Garland off the bench and into your lineup.

Jonathon Niese – In his last three starts, Niese has a 3.20 ERA with 18 Ks in 19.2 IP but is 0-2. He has had some gopher ball troubles in that span, allowing 5 HR during that stretch. But he has two home outings, where he has allowed just 4 HR in 55.2 IP. Niese has been pitching very well, and if he can avoid serving up homers, he should be able to come away with a Win this week to support his strong showing in the other categories.

Max Scherzer – Since returning to the majors on May 30th, Scherzer is 6-3 with a 2.54 ERA with 74 Ks in 63.2 IP. However, all three of his losses in that span have come on the road, where he has both starts this week. With visits to Tampa Bay and Boston on tap for Scherzer, you may want to remove him from your lineup if you have a reasonable alternative.

Carlos Silva – On July 6th, Silva picked up the win to up his record to 9-2 with a 2.96 ERA. But in his last two starts (one home, one road) he has allowed 11 ER in 2.1 IP, raising his ERA nearly a full run, no easy feat in the middle of July. Silva has had trouble with the gopher ball this year on the road, where he has allowed 5 HR in 42.2 IP, which has led to a 4.22 ERA away from Wrigley. This week he goes to Colorado and Houston. It does not seem like the week for Silva to get back on track, so keep him on the bench this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.
F. Hernandez, J. Johnson, Sabathia, Greinke, Liriano, Danks, Lee, Cain, Strasburg, Hamels, Nolasco, Weaver, Hanson, Garza, Vazquez, Floyd, Zito, Billingsley, Buchholz, J. Garica, Shields, Pineiro, Arroyo, Hammel, Wolf, G. Gonzalez, Blanton, Westbrook, Millwood, Duke, Chen, R. Lopez, Bergesen, Rowland-Smith, Wright.

Because of the All-Star break and no two-start pitchers, there is no update on how my picks went two weeks ago.

Here is the latest update to Week 10 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

KCR – Zack Greinke
CHC – Carlos Silva
WAS – Stephen Strasburg
LAD – Hiroki Kuroda
BAL – Kevin Millwood
TOR – Brian Tallet
HOU – Brian Moehler
OAK – Vin Mazzaro
PIT – Jeff Karstens

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TOR – Shaun Marcum
OAK – Brett Anderson
CHC – Randy Wells
KCR – Kyle Davies
BAL – Brad Bergesen
LAD – Carlos Monasterios

Greinke is not pitching bad but has only a 1-7 record to show for it. While few expected him to match 2009’s output, neither did they expect a 3.60 ERA or a 4.27 xFIP. Still he has eight Quality Starts and a 1-3 record in those games.

Silva has more wins (7) this year than he had the past two years combined (5) with the Mariners. He is enjoying a career-high 6.29 K/9 and a career-low 1.10 WHIP. A 77.7 strand rate has led to a higher FIP but even that is a very nice 3.86, which is nearly identical to his xFIP.

Strasburg makes his long-awaited major league debut versus the Pirates and he already finds himself active in 61 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Strasburg went 7-2 with a 1.30 ERA in 11 minor league starts split between Double and Triple-A. He allowed 13 BB and notched 65 Ks in 55.1 IP.

Kuroda has allowed 11 R (8 ER) in his last 10 IP. Yet his ERA is virtually the same as it was his first two seasons in the U.S. The big difference is his WHIP. In 2010 Kuroda sports a 1.40 WHIP compared to 1.22 and 1.14 his first two seasons with the Dodgers.

Millwood has pitched better than his 0-6 record might lead you to believe. He has struggled with the gopher ball in his new home park in Camden Yards. Millwood has surrendered 9 HR at home compared to 5 HR on the road. But his home ERA is 3.28 and on the road he has a 5.11 ERA. This week he has home starts against the Yankees and Mets.

Tallet is back after missing six weeks with an injured forearm. His first start back he pitched 5.2 scoreless innings after posting a 6.11 ERA in his first three starts before hitting the DL.

Moehler is in his 14th season in the majors. He has appeared in 14 games this year with the Astros but has made just two starts. After getting roughed up in his first outing, in which he allowed 3 HR in 2.2 IP, Moehler allowed 2 ER in 5.1 IP last time out against the Nationals. This week he gets road starts against the Rockies and the Yankees.

Mazzaro has pitched out of the bullpen in his last three games but gets the call to start after picking up a win in his last relief outing. He has been homer prone, with a 19.0 HR/FB ratio in 2010. He faces the Angels and Giants, with the Angels being a good HR hitting team.

Karstens has appeared in 10 games and made four starts for the Pirates this year. He is 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA as a starter compared to 0-0 with a 5.65 ERA pitching out of the pen. His K/9 rate is similar in both roles but Karstens has displayed much better control as a reliever. He has a 1.40 K/BB ratio as a starter and a 2.67 ratio as a reliever.

With the departure of delicate-yet-dominant righty Rich Harden via free agency, the Chicago Cubs have an open competition at the back end of the rotation. The candidates range from toxic (Carlos Silva) to infuriating (Jeff Samardzija) to intriguing (Tom Gorzelanny). Here’s a brief run-down of the hurlers vying to take the ball every fifth day for the Cubbies.

Picked up in the Milton Bradley deal with the Mariners, Silva should come with a Mr. Yuck sticker attached to him. The sinker-centric right-hander, 31 in April, was formerly a serviceable starter with the Twins, using pinpoint control (career 1.71 BB/9) to overcome an inability to make batters whiff (3.78 K/9).

The M’s inked Silva to a four-year, $48 million contract prior to the 2008 season, and he’s been beaten like he stole something ever since. An incredibly high BABIP and low strand rate masked what was another Silva-esque performance in ’08 (6.46 ERA, 4.64 xFIP), but he went on the DL with right biceps tendinitis in August. In 2009, he threw 30.1 grisly innings (5.53 xFIP) before succumbing to a right rotator cuff injury that limited him to just two more major league appearances. CHONE projects a 4.67 FIP next year. Even if he returns to form, he’s not a fantasy option.

Like Silva, Samardzija has come to be defined by the big bucks handed out for his services. The Cubs gave the former Notre Dame wide receiver a $10 million big league contract to eschew the NFL. Several years later, Chicago still isn’t sure what it has in the 25 year-old righty.

Samardzija had an underwhelming full-season debut in 2007, punching out 4.1 batters per nine innings, walking 2.8 per nine and posting a 4.73 FIP in 141.2 IP between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Southern League. Baseball America liked his heater for its combination of velocity and sink, but panned his inconsistent slider and changeup/splitter. “Samardzija,” BA said, is “still capable of becoming a frontline starter, a closer or a bust.”

In 2008, Samardzija missed more bats, but at the expense of control. Tossing 113.1 innings split between Double-A and the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, he had 6.7 K/9, 4.6 BB/9 and a 4.60 FIP. The Golden Domer also logged 27.1 major league innings out of the Cubs’ bullpen, with 8.13 K/9, 4.88 BB/9 and a 4.34 xFIP.

This past year, Samardzija shuttled between Iowa and Chicago. In 89 frames at Triple-A, he struck out 7.18 hitters per nine innings, issuing 2.73 BB/9 and compiling a 4.37 FIP. His major league stints didn’t go nearly as well. Samardzija was smacked for a 5.16 xFIP in 34.2 IP, with 5.45 K/9 and 3.89 BB/9.

Samardzija’s low-80’s slider (+0.17 runs per 100 pitches in the majors) and mid-80’s splitter (+0.95) have been effective, but his 93-94 MPH fastball (-1.09) hasn’t been as advertised. CHONE’s projection for Samardzija comes in relief, and it’s not especially sunny: a 4.74 FIP, with 6.92 K/9 and 3.88 BB/9. If you tack something like 0.75 to one run on to that to account for a shift in roles (The Book found that relievers shifting into starting roles generally perform about one run worse per nine innings), then things start getting ugly. Samardzija might be best off pitching in short stints.

Gorzelanny, meanwhile, was once a prized prospect in the Pirates organization. Armed with low-90’s velocity and a sharp slider, the left-hander displayed an exciting combo of force and finesse as he climbed the minor league ladder.

He pitched adequately in the bigs in 2006 and 2007 (with xFIPs of 4.88 and 4.82, respectively). However, a hefty workload in ’07 seemed to sap Gorzelanny of his former stuff: his fastball fell to the 88 MPH range and he walked nearly six batters per nine innings in 2008, posting a 5.84 xFIP in the process. He was booted to Triple-A in July (where he showed a pulse: 35 IP, 33/4 K/BB, 2.11 FIP) and suffered a left middle finger injury that sidelined him in September.

This past season, Gorzelanny started games at Triple-A Indianapolis, mopped up and got spot-starts for the Bucs in the majors, and was shipped to Chicago (along with LHP John Grabow) for righties Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio, plus minor league INF Josh Harrison. The Cubs also split Gorzo’s appearances between the bullpen and the rotation.

The 27 year-old performed admirably at the Triple-A level, whiffing 8.79 per nine innings, walking 3.1 and compiling a 2.87 FIP in 87 innings. In 47 major league innings (seven starts, 15 relief appearances), Gorzelanny pleasantly punched out a batter per inning, while handing out 3.26 walks per nine with a 3.73 xFIP. His fastball velocity crept back up to 91 MPH. For 2010, CHONE forecasts a 4.43 FIP for Gorzelanny as a starter, with 7.39 K/9 and 3.61 BB/9.

It’s worth nothing that while “who’s the fifth guy?” makes for good spring training copy, every team ends up relying on those sixth, seventh and even eighth starters at some point. With Big Z becoming familiar with the DL (shoulder in ’08, hamstring and back in ’09) and Ted Lilly working his way back from knee and shoulder ailments, odds are that Chicago’s starting depth will be tested. Gorzelanny’s revived repertoire makes him the best best of those back-end options.

The Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs swapped undesired contracts on Friday, as the M’s acquired OF/DH Milton Bradley for RHP Carlos Silva. Bradley is owed a combined $21M for the 2010-2011 seasons, while Silva is set to rake in $25M ($11.5M each in 2010 and 2011, plus a $2M buyout on a $12M mutual option for 2012). Apparently, Seattle will kick in $9M, saving Chicago $5M in the transaction.

(salary figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.)

Silva (he of a career 4.48 xFIP and a recent rotator cuff injury) isn’t of much concern to fantasy owners. But what’s left of Milton Bradley’s game? Let’s try to find out.

Bradley, of course, had a turbulent tenure on the North Side. He didn’t perform up to expectations in 2009, though he’s probably not responsible for global warming, swine flu and the financial collapse, as some Chicago columnists would have you believe.

The switch-hitter has long been a quality offensive player. His career wRC+ is 120, meaning Bradley’s wOBA in the majors is 20 percent better than average, once we account for park and league factors. Milton was an absolute machine in 2007 and 2008, posting wRC+ figures of 155 and 160, respectively. 2008 was the best year of his career, as Bradley set personal bests in home runs (22), Isolated Power (.242) and walk rate (16.2%). It was also just the second time in his career that he topped the 500 PA mark.

While Bradley annihilated pitchers in Arlington, we shouldn’t have expected a repeat of his monstrous ’08 campaign. His BABIP was an absurd .396, highest among all hitters. Milton’s Expected BABIP, by contrast, was .334. Bradley’s 2007-2008 power outburst was also well above his established level: his combined ISO over those two seasons was .241, compared to .170 from 2004-2006.

In a “down” 2009 season, Bradley was still above average with the bat (108 wRC+). He remained extremely patient at the plate (14.4 BB%). His pop, however, got lost at the airport terminal:

Milton’s ISO dipped to .140, his lowest mark since a 2001 season split between Les Expos and the Indians. During his 2007-2008 power surge, Bradley hit ground balls 40.4% of the time, while putting the ball in the air 37 percent. In ’09, his groundball rate rose to about 47 percent, while his fly ball rate fell to 33.3 percent.

During his banner ’08 season, Bradley had a humongous batting average on ground balls (remember that MLB-leading BABIP?) In ’09, not so much:

Bradley’s Batting Average on Ground Balls

2008: .323 BAVG (.242 AL AVG)
2009: .200 BAVG (.240 AL AVG)
Bradley’s Career Average: .228

Though Bradley was able-bodied enough to take 473 trips to the plate in 2009, he was rarely healthy. He battled quad, groin, hamstring, hip and knee ailments. Milton’s propensity to get dinged up was exacerbated by the lack of the DH. All of those bumps and bruises have taken a toll on Bradley’s wheels:

Bradley’s Speed Score, 2005-2009
2005: 5.1
2006: 4.9
2007: 4.5
2008: 3.2
2009: 2.6

Back in the AL, Bradley will likely patrol left field, while getting to rest his achy knees at least occasionally at DH. What can we expect out of Milton in 2010? CHONE projects a .369 wOBA, while Bill James forecasts a .365 wOBA. Thus far, the Fans call for a .373 wOBA.

Granted, Safeco Field is not a hitter’s haven by any means. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Safeco depressed run scoring by 6 percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2007-2009. He’s not going to a great environment to get his power stroke back (95 HR park factor for lefty batters, 91 for righty hitters).

Still, Bradley (32 in April) has superb on-base skills. With a mild bounce back in the power category (not to his ’07-08 glory days, but around his career .172 ISO), he could be a pretty nice pickup for the Mariners and fantasy players.