Archive for Carlos Pena

You might think that being “lucky” enough to write about the potentially dreadful Houston infield might be a source of consternation for me. Not quite! At least I get Jose Altuve, who is potentially the only obvious standard-league draftable player on the entire Astros roster outside of maybe Bud Norris and whomever ends up collecting what few saves there might be. Read the rest of this entry »

And six weeks later, a team was born…

That’s right. After just six short weeks and hundreds of emails, we finally finished the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft — Slow Draft Style. The process was definitely cumbersome, to say the least, but we all made it through relatively unscathed. Our fearless leader and draft overseer, Eno Sarris, published the results five rounds at a time (the links to all can be found in this post) and now it’s time to reveal our teams. Well, I don’t know if everyone is going to do it, but here’s mine: Read the rest of this entry »

When you write a fantasy baseball column that recommends players, your number one priority is accuracy.  You can make all the suggestions you want, but if you’re making bad calls, no one is going to listen to your advice.  And even if you do happen to get one right eventually, there’s always someone out there to tell you that even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut.  You need to know what you’re talking about.

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As the winter draws to an end and we get closer to pitchers and catchers reporting, the Baltimore Orioles have yet to fill the role of their designated hitter, a spot left vacant when the club opted not to offer Vladimir Guerrero arbitration. 

Obviously there’s still the ability to sign a DH-type player such as Hideki Matsui, Carlos Pena or Johnny Damon, but according to Buster Olney and MLB Trade Rumors, they don’t seem too high on the idea. If that’s really the case and the Orioles fill the job in-house by using the DH-by-committee approach, then that fact coupled with the recent Nick Markakis abdominal surgery opens the door for a very interesting late round sleeper pick — Matt Angle.

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One of the primary reasons that people give as to why they opt not to play fantasy baseball but are the first to form a fantasy football league is the sheer length of the season.  Six months is apparently two months too long for them.  However, those of us that are able to cope with the time frame know the real answer; the amount of work it takes to, not only prep for the season, but to stay active and alert all season long can be a testament to one’s patience, work ethic and mental endurance.

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In today’s edition of the Waiver Wire, we take a look at two tigers and a cub. Oh my.

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First baseman Carlos Pena revived his career in Tampa, transforming from a disappointing former top-10 draft pick who passed through Texas, Oakland, Detroit, the Bronx and Boston to an offensive force. From 2007-2009, Pena had a .252/.382/.553 batting line, with a .393 wOBA that tied him with Miguel Cabrera for 14th among qualified MLB hitters over that time frame.

Unfortunately, Pena’s free agent walk year wasn’t near as impressive: the lefty masher hit .196/.325/.407 in 2010, and his wOBA nosedived to a career-low .326. That’s a solid number for a slick-fielding shortstop or center fielder, but hardly sufficient for a player at a power position. The Chicago Cubs recently signed Pena to a one-year, $10 million deal, hoping that the 32-year-old keeps the Bleacher Bums at Wrigley busy with a bounce back performance.

What caused Pena’s quiet year at the plate, and is he primed for a comeback in Chicago? Let’s try to find out.

Pena’s plate patience wasn’t a source of concern, as his 26.6% rate of swinging at pitches tossed out of the strike zone was well below the 29.3% big league average. Not going all Francoeur at the plate leads to hitter’s counts. According to Baseball-Reference, Pena got ahead in the count against pitchers in 42.8% of his plate appearances. For comparison, the 2010 American League average was 35.5%. It’s no surprise, then, that Pena walked in 14.9% of his PA. Among qualified batters, only Daric Barton and Prince Fielder took a leisurely stroll to first base more often.

However, while Pena remained a walk machine, his power declined. A .211 Isolated Power is hardly poor, but that figure was well below Pena’s previous work with the Rays: a .345 ISO in 2007, .247 in 2008 and a .310 mark in 2009.

Pena rarely hit a ground ball during his first three years in Tampa, but that changed this past season. He grounded out just 33% from ’07 to ’09 (44% MLB average). In 2010, he chopped the ball earthward 44.9% of the time. That spike in worm burners certainly didn’t help Pena’s power output. Based on Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s website, here are Pena’s ground ball rates by pitch type since 2008 (the first year for which the site has data). To provide more context, I also included MLB ground ball averages by pitch type from The Hardball Times’ Harry Pavlidis:

Pena saw an across-the-board increase on grounders, hitting more breaking and offspeed stuff into the dirt than the average MLB batter. His grounder rate on fastballs, though still below the big league average, shot up considerably as well.

Pena has long been a dead pull hitter, sizzling many of the balls that he puts in play to the right side…

…and many of those extra grounders came on pulled pitches. Those power-sapping ground balls, coupled with a very low BABIP, made Pena a lousy pull hitter this past year:

From ’07 to ’09, Pena was a prodigious pull hitter. According to our new expanded splits section, his .555 wOBA when pulling over that period was sixth-best among big league batters. But this past year, his wOBA to the right side of the field was a full 40 points worse than the average lefty batter.

Pena’s performance when hitting to center also suffered compared to past years, with more grounders, less pop and a lower BABIP:

He fared very well when putting the ball in play to the opposite field, but keep in mind he rarely goes to the opposite field:

With few hits falling to the pull side and to center, Pena’s overall BABIP nosedived to .222. From 2007-2009, Pena’s BABIP was .283.

Pena, of course, is often subject to a defensive shift that moves fielders more toward his pull side. Over at The Baseball Analysts, Jeremy Greenhouse did find that shifted hitters on the whole have a lower BABIP than non-shifted hitters, and that Pena’s ground ball angle (he hits lots of grounders toward the second baseman) is particularly shift-worthy.

But, while there’s little reason to expect Pena’s BABIP to approach .300, it’s also unlikely that it will remain over 50 points below his career mark. His batting average is never going to be pretty, but he’s more apt to hit in the .230s-.240s next year than below the Mendoza Line.

The key for Pena is to keep the ball off the ground. Those ground balls hurt his power numbers, and they’re especially damaging for a slow-footed slugger subject to a defensive shift.

Happily, he is moving from a park that damages lefty power to one that boosts it considerably — according to StatCorner, Tropicana Field depresses HR production by 11 percent compared to a neutral park, while Wrigley pumps it up by 19 percent. There’s little chance that Pena produces like he did during his peak years in Tampa. But with better luck and a more favorable offensive environment, Pena’s triple-slash could look an awful lot like his career averages: .241/.351/.490. Maybe not “Holy Cow!” worthy, but not bad either.

How do you think Pena will fare in Chicago? Make sure to submit a 2011 projection here.

It’s a tough offseason to be a veteran free agent first baseman. Though it may normally be a difficult position to be in anyway, there are now too many lumbering older dudes looking for too few chairs and the music will eventually stop. Who will win this round of musical chairs? Will any of the bunch succeed and therefore become a fantasy value pick in 2011?

By the current count, the Cubs, Jays, Nationals, White Sox and Rays don’t have a traditional first baseman on their roster, and they probably represent the best opportunities for an every-day first base job for Adam Dunn, Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, Adam LaRoche, and Lyle Overbay. Someone will probably be on the outside looking in.

Perhaps that is over-rating the dire state of the market. There might be a chance that the Red Sox, Rangers or Orioles buy a first baseman on the market. They have options at the position, but they could also move players around. Still, the Orioles and Rangers are more likely to solve the situation with their cheaper internal options – Luke Scott and Nolan Reimold could be good enough to man DH and first base for a rebuilding club, and Mitch Moreland and Vladimir Guerrero (provided he re-signs) could do the job for a Rangers team that might be looking to spend money on pitching.

If you drafted today, you’d have to downgrade the whole bunch – save Dunn – because of the uncertainty. But you’d also have to downgrade the older men in the crew because of their age. Only 18 firstbasemen over 35 have put up better than an .800 OPS since 1975, and only Mark McGwire, Andres Gallaraga, Jeff Bagwell and Carlos Delgado hit more than 30 home runs over that age. Most likely, only one of Lee, Berkman and Overbay will join the .800+ OPS crew – and none fit in the second group when it comes to power.

Really, the decision comes down to Lee and Berkman if you’re looking for a bounce-back value at the position at the end of your deep-league draft. Lee had back problems, and Berkman has a degenerative knee problem – neither state of health induces much hope for a clean bill of health in 2011. Berkman has said that the Cardinals, Cubs, Rockies, A’s, Pirates and Blue Jays are interested – but the NL teams on the list would most likely want him as a backup (save the Cubs), and the AL teams are rumored to be interested in him as a DH. Players often suffer worse numbers as they transition to DH, and Berkman’s .255/.358/.349 line in New York at DH doesn’t offer much hope. The market for Lee so far has been deadly quiet, which may have something to do with his offseason thumb surgery – or his age.

In any case, it’s a tough season to be a free agent first baseman, and it’s a tough time to be drafting – this is why we schedule drafts as late as we can before the season starts. Once the actual deals come through, we’ll evaluate their situations more fully, but this serves as a general warning. There’s not much upside here as history doesn’t like 35-year-old first basemen. Temper any excitement you might get when looking at their historical statistics.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, and second basemen.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place. Oh, another note: these rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

It’s probable that Albert Pujols is a tier of his own. He is a true stud in every category when compared to his peers. But without the 15 or so steals, he might belong right along side the other two metronomes in Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera, two young studs at the position who are virtual locks for a plus batting average 35+ home runs, and gobs of runs and RBI. There’s not much to say here other than, since this is a deep position, it’s worth considering comparable middle infielders over these guys – just look how long and balanced this list is.

The third tier has three players that could, in the right year, outperform guys in the second tier. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Adrian Gonzalez have all had years with power production that has eclipsed that of the two players above them. But they also have their issues. Fielder alternates medium-power years with high-power years, Howard won’t ever put in a plus batting average with his high strikeout rates, and Gonzalez would be more exciting if only he could get his batting average out of the ‘neutral’ territory and into ‘plus’ like the guys in tier two. Maybe, when he walks fewer times with his next team as Dave Cameron seems to have predicted, his BABIP will also regress to his career levels and his batting average will rise, though it’s hard to predict anything more than a .280 number there.

The middle tier provides some real opportunity for value. Each and every member of this tier could easily hit .300 with 30 home runs and good run production next year. Justin Morneau, Lance Berkman and Kendry Morales have all done it before, and Kevin Youkilis has gotten about as close as you can get. Joey Votto seems poised to join their ranks with a full year of strong play. It’s also a well balanced tier – the aging sluggers on their way down sit in front of Youkilis, who seems to have found his niche with a good batting average and modest power for a first baseman. Votto and Morales sit behind him until they prove they can consistently provide more power.

The next tier is called the ‘Dan Uggla‘ tier. These guys will give you power, but in rotisserie baseball you’ll also need to work hard to over come Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena’s poor batting averages. In head-to-head competition, their value increases because of the option of punting batting average, but in rotisserie you really need to try and compete in every category and their big minus signs are a dark cloud over the rest of their positive contributions.

The last tier could produce some tier-jumpers if the stars align. Should Derrek Lee continue to hit 45% of his balls in the air, he may jut hit another 30 home runs, which would put him in tier four. Billy Butler is still hitting too many worm-burners (47.7% groundballs career), but if can get a little lift into those balls, he’s shown that he’s a strong producer in batting average. At 30 years old, it seems that Adam LaRoche is a strong bet to continue producing at the same mediocre level going forward. He’ll probably drop off the list when a young guy steps forward next year and joins the crowd, but with the strikeout rates that Chris Davis (34.7% career) and Russell Branyan (38.9% career) sport, it’s hard to rely on them to even keep their jobs all year in 2010.

Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off an Emilio Bonifacio for Gil Meche trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Chris Iannetta – The very limited track record in the majors and his .111 average makes Iannetta someone his current owner may want to move. The .067 BABIP and the .222 ISO are reasons you want to get him.

Justin Verlander – He is averaging over 95 mph with his fastball, the highest rate in his major league career. Verlander’s SO/BB ratio of 2.86 is also a career best. So, how does he have an 0-2 record with a 7.88 ERA? He has a .389 BABIP and a 38.8 LOB%. His FIP checks in at 3.88 this season. The Tigers are sixth in defensive efficiency rating in 2009, so we are looking at a lot of bad luck here.

Curtis Granderson – He is striking out at 17.3 percent, which would be his lowest total in the majors. But the hits are just not falling in yet, as his .220 BABIP will attest. Granderson has a lifetime .335 mark in the category. I am a little surprised at him having just one stolen base attempt (successful) but he has only eight singles and four walks so far, so Granderson has not had a ton of opportunities yet.

Carl Pavano – Sure, at this point Pavano is better known for his DL stints and for dating Alyssa Milano. But there is a pitcher inside trying to get out. If someone took a flier on him on Draft Day, they are no doubt disgusted by his 9.69 ERA. But Pavano has pitched decent in two of his three starts this season, all three of which have come on the road. After getting bombed in his first start at Texas, Pavano has a 3.75 ERA with 12 strikeouts and one walk in 12 IP at Kansas City and at New York. At one point in his life, Pavano was an 18-game winner.

Carlos Lee – With a .244-2-8 line so far this season, Lee is hardly doing awful but it is possible that an owner might be just a tad worried. This is one of the most consistent .300-30-100 guys around and if you can get him at any kind of discount at all, pull the trigger on the deal.

Dump

Carlos Pena – He is second in the majors with six home runs and tied for third with 15 RBIs which should make him very attractive to other owners. But call me crazy, I just do not think he can maintain a .680 SLG. Before the season, Pena was targeted almost exactly alike by all five projection systems, which saw him as a .255-31-77 kind of guy.

Chris Young – This is All-Star Chris Young, the Padres pitcher with the 2-0 record with 14 strikeouts in 16.2 innings. If you cannot trade him, at least take him out of your lineup whenever he makes a road start. Both wins this year have come at home, where he has a 1.38 ERA. Young has a 4.86 ERA on the season.

Orlando Hudson – The O-Dog is riding high, including the first cycle by a home player at Dodger Stadium. Hudson is doing everything you want a fantasy player to do, hitting for average, power and stealing bases. Too bad it cannot last. This is an injury-prone player, one who plays in the middle infield where he is likely to get banged up at some point in the season. But even if he stays healthy, Hudson is not likely to have a .400 BABIP or hit much better than his numbers away from Chase Field the past three seasons, where he batted .274/.339/.392 in 835 plate appearances.

Jarrod Washburn – Since winning 18 games with a 3.15 ERA in 2002, Washburn has pitched six seasons (175 starts), has not won more than 11 in a year and has posted an ERA above 4.32 in five of them. See if someone might be enticed by his 2-0 record with a 1.29 ERA.

Miguel Tejada – That .360 batting average sure looks nice. Too bad it is accompanied by no home runs and only one RBI. The power is gone and that gaudy average will not last.