– Is there any way Starlin Castro turns himself into a .300-15-20 guy next year? Because that would sure be sweet. I don’t think owners have noticed that Starlin has hit for more power this year and stolen over twenty bags, but I’m sure it’ll be advertised enough this offseason that he won’t be a value pick come draft day.
It’s Friday, you’re ducking out the door early, and you got somewhere to be and some adult beverages to drink. That makes sense. But here are a couple waiver wire candidates to ponder while you are still supposed to be pretending to work.
Carlos Lee, Houston (77% owned)
He’s 34, overweight at best, and in the middle of a very obvious and painful decline. His HR/FB, line drive rate, and ISO have all dropped off precipitously in the last three years. Let’s not mince words. But he’s hitting better recently – .277 with four home runs and two stolen bases over the last thirty days – and he has some regression coming in his favor, too. Even for a low-BABIP player (.287 career BABIP), his current .244 BABIP would be the worst of his career. That should normalize, even if, not surprisingly, his line drive rate is currently the second-worst of his career. He doesn’t strike out a lot – that part of his game has remained steady (10.1% this year, 12.9% career) – so all those balls he puts in play should help the BABIP regression along. He’s still 70 or so plate appearances away from having a reliable ISO, so his career-worst ISO (.161) has a chance to grow over the next few weeks as well. He’s pretty much a DH in the field, and without his power he will be nigh useless, but owners looking for an offensive shot in the arm from their bench should look his way. El Caballo will trot around the bases a few more times before he’s turned into glue.
Chris Young, San Diego (7% owned)
Young is having shoulder troubles, and that’s never good. But supposedly he’s pain free and ready to pitch a simulated game this weekend, which would have him on track to join the major league rotation in early September. It’s not immediately obvious who would drop from the rotation, but the Padres have talked about limiting the innings for Mat Latos (so great he only needs one ‘t’) and his young arm, so he could spot start there. Also, Kevin Correia has oscillated between starting and relieving over his career, and is currently sporting a 4.64 FIP. Young has never relieved and has a career 4.22 FIP even after all the damage he’s put on his career numbers with his recent injury-addled performances. The point is, the team could use him, and if he’s finally healthy again, maybe he can find his old control (3.5 BB/9 career, over four the last three years) that makes his stuff play better. We know Young likes PetCo – his 2.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP there in 255.1 innings is almost reason enough to pick up Young and stash him on your deep league disabled list.
Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.
BUY
Carlos Lee – In his first 44 games, Lee was absolutelIn his first 44 games, Lee was absolutely dreadful. He was hitting for neither AVG (.192) nor power (5 HR in 167 ABs). But in the last two weeks, Lee has broke out of his slump in a big way and is batting .340 with 12 RBIs in 13 games. ZiPS (R) sees a .280 AVG with 15 HR and 62 RBIs the rest of the way and that might be selling him short. There is still a lot of room for growth with his BABIP (.227) and even with the awful start, when he did not hit a HR in April, his HR/FB rate is at 9.2 percent.
Ted Lilly – He got off to a late start to the season and then got knocked around in both his second and third outings of the year. But in his last six starts, Lilly has been as good as ever, even though his 0-3 mark in that frame does not show it. Lilly has recorded a Quality Start in each of those past six outings and has a 2.49 ERA over 43.1 IP. With a 4.62 xFIP, Lilly’s current owner may be in a mood to sell. Most of that number comes about because of a decrease in Ks and an increase in BB. But Lilly has picked up the pace with his strikeouts and in his last outing he did not walk a batter in 8 IP.
Clayton Richard – It is easy to see a Padres pitcher with a low ERA and an xFIP one and a quarter runs higher and make the conclusion that he is succeeding thanks to Petco Park. But Richard has pitched just as well on the road so far this season and his ERA was consistent in both April (3.00) and May (3.00). Richard has shaved nearly a full walk off his BB/9 from a year ago while his K/9 has remained steady. Some will point to his 81.0 LOB% as the main reason for his success. But Richard gets grounders, has a low LD% (16.7) and his O-Swing% is up to 28.5 percent. And he helps himself by having one of the toughest pickoff moves in the game.
SELL
Adam Dunn – One of the three true outcome kings, Dunn is walking less and hitting fewer HR this year. But the most surprising thing is his .280 AVG, which would easily be a career high. Of course, that comes with a .362 BABIP, which eclipses last year’s personal-best .324 mark. The additional base hits have Dunn just as valuable as ever with a .396 wOBA. But his fantasy value will fall when the AVG drops and unlike past years, Dunn will not prop it up with 40-HR power.
Derek Lowe – Great run support, especially early in the year, has helped Lowe to 8 W so far this season. But the rest of his fantasy numbers are underwhelming. His ERA is 5.04, his WHIP of 1.45 is just barely better than last year’s disappointing number and his K/9 of 5.28 is below-average. Lowe did real off wins in three straight outings before getting roughed up in his last start. His FIP and xFIP are three quarters of a run better than his ERA. See if that or his win total or his reputation can get someone to bite on him and take him off your hands. The slider which was such an effective pitch for Lowe while he was with the Dodgers is now a below-average offering.
Jon Rauch – After getting quality fantasy numbers from Rauch for two months, the time has come to try and sell high on Rauch and his 15 Saves. The 6-11 Rauch has done an admirable job filling in for Joe Nathan. But his WHIP is nothing special, he no longer is a big strikeout pitcher and his ERA is being propped up by a 5.9 HR/FB rate. Rauch has yet to give up a HR in 13 road innings and has allowed just 2 HR at home despite a 63.6 FB% in Target Field.
HUNCH
Troy Glaus – In the seven seasons prior to 2010, Glaus played in 115 games or fewer four times, including last year when he appeared in just 14 games and had only 29 ABs. But when healthy, Glaus has delivered consistent numbers, as good or better than the .377 OBP and .480 SLG he holds currently. Playing time is the big concern with Glaus, but he has already exceeded the amount of action he saw in two of his four injured seasons. I like Glaus’ chances to stay healthy and appear in 140 or more games this season and top his ZiPS (U) line of .271-22-92-64-1.
Time to update the outfielders! Commenters from last week might be happy to see that a certain someone wearing White Sox has dropped into OF2 territory. The offending OF1 rankings can be seen here.
Worst of the Best?
1. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.377 wOBA, .409 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
2. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.427 wOBA, .371 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
3. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.356 wOBA, .366 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
4. Jason Heyward, Atlanta (.424 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
5. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles (.348 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Alex Rios and Carlos Gonzalez join the OF1s next time around, although I just remain skeptical of Rios and think Go CarGo could benefit from a few less swings. The first tier here consists mostly of uninspiring veterans that just don’t have the upside to really be solid OF1s, and then the king of Upside himself, Jason Heyward. Many will question why he isn’t on the OF1 list, but he’s in barely-charted water for a 20 year old, as David Cameron showed this week. If the strikeout rate continues to fall – showing his ability to adjust – he’ll be on the first list soon enough.
If You Squint Just Right They Could Still be an OF1, I Promise
6. Adam Dunn, Washington (.392 wOBA, .394 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
7. Adam Lind, Toronto (.300 wOBA, .349 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.305 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
9. Carlos Lee, Houston (.243 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
10. Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.375 wOBA, .341 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
11. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.301 wOBA, .334 ZiPs Ros wOBA)
The first half of this tier includes a lot of veterans that were borderline OF1s going into the season. Well, perhaps Dunn has always had the scarlet letter of his batting average to hold him down, and maybe we should have seen Quentin’s low-batting average ways as his true talent level. His line drive rate does not mean we should expect a huge BABIP-fueled bounceback, as talented as he has seemed at times. Lee is heating up, and Rasmus is cooling down, but Lee may end up with the better batting average given their respective long-term histories.
Upside to be Solid OF2s
12. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia (.343 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS)
13. Denard Span, Minnesota (.357 wOBA, .344 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
14. Austin Jackson, Detroit (.378 wOBA, .308 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.380 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Vernon Wells, Toronto (.398 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Span’s not a bad player and is probably a solid OF2 right now, but a .300 hitter with no power and 30 steals is pretty vanilla. It doesn’t look like it will get any better. A-Jax has cut his strikeout rate from 32.3% in April to 24.4% this month and has settled in with a .302/.348/.395 May after his squeaky clean April. That’s an improvement, but it doesn’t mean he’s not a risk to put up a mediocre batting average going forward. Byrd’s still not walking at all (3.2%) but his ISO survived the move. Adam Jones should take notice, cut his strikeout rate, and up his power to join the party. Wells would be more attractive if it wasn’t likely that we’ve already seen about half of his 2010 home run output already.
Upside to Join the Top
17. Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners (.374 wOBA, .333 ZiPs wOBA)
18. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati (.361 wOBA, .343 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
19. Adam Jones, Baltimore (.290 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Now we’re about 36 outfielders in, so we’ve actually covered to OF3 in standard mixed leagues. And to be fair, you’d rather have these guys shuttling in and out of your final outfielder spot because they are streaky young players that are adjusting to the league. Gutierrez could be considered a solid OF2, but it’s not clear that he’s got the power (.148 career ISO, .150 is usually average) or speed (5.3 career speed score, 5 is average) to be relevant in mixed leagues as a second outfielder.
Since outfielders are so bountiful, it makes sense to create some tiers. We’ll start these rankings at 17, which means that the first outfielder may be an OF1 in most leagues, but we’ll still be able to delve a little deeper than we have to date. Once again, to-date wOBA plus ZiPS RoS wOBA is listed.
Worst of the Best?
1. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.390 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
2. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.328 wOBA, .339 ZiPs Ros wOBA)
3. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.484 wOBA, .414 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
4. Adam Lind, Toronto (.323 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
5. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.345 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
6. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles (.343 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jayson Werth and Andre Ethier moved up into the OF1 rankings with their strong play in the early goings. Adam Lind and Manny Ramirez moved down because of mediocre play and old age, though Lind could still get it going – he just needs to find his power and stop striking out so much. Neither of those things becomes significant in a short sample. That fact should temper our enthusiasm for McCutchen a tiny bit, though, since there is still no guarantee that he will retain all the power gains he’s made in the past year-plus. As an aside, it’s a little silly to hear about how few times Manny Ramirez has gone on the DL. We all know he’s old and injury-prone at this point. 2008 aside, he’s the kind of guy that misses time here and there but has “somehow” avoided the DL.
Still Strong
7. Adam Dunn, Chicago (.387 wOBA, .393 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.435 wOBA, .370 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
9. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.358 wOBA, .366 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
10. Michael Bourn, Houston (.363 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
11. Denard Span, Minnesota (.354 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.294 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
This is the boring-as-vanilla tier for the most part (but to be fair, it does seem that Haagen-Dazs Vanilla with strawberries is the nectar of the gods). Carlos Quentin is making it harder to believe in him every day, but he’s having some BABIP problems and we can hope that power comes back still. Not too late for him to turn it around and have a decent year. Soriano’s resurgence takes him from afterthought to solid OF2, which is actually sort of an amazing thing with how bad he’s looked in the recent past.
What’s Going On?
14. Jason Heyward, Atlanta (.439 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Alex Rios, Chicago (.384 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Chase Headley, San Diego (.378 wOBA, .327 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Adam Jones, Baltimore (.255 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
13. Carlos Lee, Houston (.230 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Yup, as boring as the tier above was, this tier is full of rock-em-sock-em peaks and valleys. Is Jason Heyward really an OF2 already? Will he be a top tier OF1 by the end of the year? He’s really surpassing even the most precocious of young stars with his performance to date. The best news is that he’s making adjustments on breaking balls. Alex Rios, Chase Headley? Finally? And Adam Jones and Carlos Lee may not be remotely close in terms of career arc, but they are looking in the same closet for their lost games. Hopefully for their owners they will find what they are looking for.
For Reals? Really Reals?
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.419 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Austin Jackson, Detroit (.414 wOBA, .307 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York (.415 wOBA, .330 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.422 wOBA, .363 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Vernon Wells, Toronto (.440 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Marlon Byrd has to count as the most surprising player in this tier full of surprises. There aren’t enough words for this space to unpack all that’s going on here, but you’ll see analysis on these guys here at FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. I promise.
Francisco Liriano, Twins
Liriano wasn’t near as bad as his 2009 ERA (5.80) indicated, as he posted rates of 8.03 K/9, 4.28 BB/9 and a 4.55 xFIP. He entered 2010 with plenty of hype, and those who invested in the 26 year-old southpaw are being rewarded handsomely. In 36 IP, Liriano has punched out a batter per inning, with 3.25 BB/9 and a 3.09 xFIP. His slider has been like a predator drone: per Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, that slide piece has been thrown for a strike 77 percent (62.8% MLB average), with an obscene 24.2 percent whiff rate (13% MLB average).
His fastball velocity has climbed from 91.7 MPH in ’09 to 93.6 MPH this year, and he’s generating ground balls at a 53.9 percent clip. That resurgent ground ball rate appears to be the result of a boatload of two seamers: according to Liriano’s Pitch F/X page, he’s throwing a two-seamer 47% of the time this season, compared to 12.1% in 2009 when his ground ball rate was 40.2%.
In terms of fooling batters, Liriano is in elite territory thus far. His 31.4 outside swing percentage is a career best and eclipses the 27% MLB average. His 74% contact rate is also well below the 80.7% MLB average. While Liriano struggled to get ahead in the count last year (55.3 first pitch strike%), he is getting first pitch strikes 64 percent of the time in 2010 (57.5% MLB average).
Josh Hamilton, Rangers
Battling back, shoulder, groin and abdomen injuries in 2009, Hamilton turned in a middling .321 wOBA that fell well short of his .386 wOBA in 2007-2008. His ISO dipped to .158, and Hamilton hacked at 36.1 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Falling behind the pitcher often 65.3 first pitch strike percentage), Hamilton drew a walk in just 6.6 percent of his plate appearances.
While the soon-to-be-29 year-old was sidelined with a shoulder contusion during spring training, he has managed a healthy .368 wOBA in 2010. Hamilton’s pop has returned (.227 ISO), and he seems to have a better game plan at the plate. His O-Swing% is down to a league average 27 percent, and his first pitch strike percentage sits at 59.3. The lefty batter’s walk rate is a career-best 10.2 percent.
Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
Soriano was a train wreck in 2009. Bothered by a left knee injury that eventually shut him down in September and required surgery, the left fielder authored a .314 wOBA (the worst full-season mark of his career). Soriano’s elite power was merely good (.182 ISO), and his aching legs robbed him of his once-solid speed.
While the 34 year-old will collect inordinately large checks for years to come ($18M annually from 2010-2014), his bat has bounced back. Soriano has slugged to the tune of a .447 wOBA to this point, with a .350 ISO. Perhaps it’s a coincidence, but pitchers seem reluctant to toss him a strike: Soriano is seeing fewer pitches within the zone than usual (39% this year, compared to 46-48% in recent years). He’s obviously not going to continue at this pace, and his days as a SB threat are through. But Soriano’s ZiPS projection for the rest of the season (.275/.334/.513, .368 wOBA) is plenty useful.
Ben Sheets, Athletics
Sheets has been a shell of his former self in Oakland. Returning to the majors after missing the 2009 season with a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, the 31 year-old righty has 4.75 K/9 and BB/9 apiece, with a 5.65 xFIP in 30.1 innings.
The former Milwaukee Brewer previously sat 92-93 MPH with his fastball, but he’s down to 91.3 MPH this season. Sheets isn’t missing much lumber, and his trademark precision is conspicuously absent:
Here’s a comparison of Sheets’ fastball and curveball during his last healthy season (2008) and 2010, courtesy of Somers’ Pitch F/X data:
The tally for Oakland’s $10 million investment so far? -0.3 Wins Above Replacement.
Carlos Lee, Astros
How bad has Houston’s “offense” been? The Astros rank dead last in wOBA at .271, nearly 20 points worse than the 29th-ranked Mariners (.290 wOBA). The ‘Stros are the worst club in drawing walks (5.3 BB%) and hitting for power (.088 ISO).
The most egregious offender, save for Kazuo Matsui, is Carlos Lee. El Caballo has limped to a ghastly .212 wOBA during his first 98 plate appearances. Lee has yet to go yard, has a .054 ISO and has expanded his zone with a 32.1 outside swing percentage. Odds are, Lee isn’t toast. But he is 33 years old and saw his ISO drip from the .220-.255 range from 2004-2008 to .189 in 2009. ZiPS projects a good, not great .357 wOBA for the rest of the season, with a .194 ISO.
Julio Borbon, Rangers
Texas’ supplemental first-rounder in the 2007 draft generated fantasy buzz due his wheels, but his lackluster plate discipline served as a drawback. So far, it looks like Borbon spent the winter watching Corey Patterson instructional videos.
Borbon has drawn ball four just once in 80 plate appearances (1.3%), while jumping at 41.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. That’s leading to plenty of pitchers counts, as Borbon’s first pitch strike percentage is 63.8. The 24 year-old has been unlucky on balls put in play (.238 BABIP), but his approach has been abysmal. Recently, the Rangers have been working in Craig Gentry (another speed player with limited secondary skills) in center field. Borbon has blazing speed and is a quality defender, but he’s a mess at the dish right now.
Today is supposed to be a waiver wire article, but we’ll have plenty of those. For those of you still planning one last draft (and the internal FanGraphs league is one of those), I thought I would present to you my second-ever auction draft. Yes, I’m a noob. But with more mocks and real-life auctions in my review mirror, I’ll be able to step up the auction coverage here at RotoGraphs.
Here are my results, with comments coming after:
Position Player $
C Brian McCann 22
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia 1
1B Adrian Gonzalez 31
2B Brandon Phillips 21
3B Gordon Beckham 17
SS Alcides Escobar 12
CI Paul Konerko 10
MI Chris Getz 1
OF Justin Upton 30
OF Carlos Lee 19
OF Matt LaPorta 4
OF Seth Smith 1
OF Scott Podsednik 1
UT Gaby Sanchez 2
BN Xavier Nady 1
BN Matt Joyce 1
Total Offense: $173
Position Player $
P CC Sabathia 26
P Josh Johnson 22
P Brett Anderson 16
P Roy Oswalt 6
P Ryan Franklin 5
P Ryan Madson 4
P Kerry Wood 3
P Ryan Rowland-Smith 2
P Jonathon Niese 1
BN Ian Kennedy 1
Pitching total: $87
This was a 15-team put on by MDS (MillionDollarSleeper), who I’m sure you’ve seen around the comment boards at this site and others. He brought in an impressive collection of talent including David Goleblahblah, Paul Greco from FantasyPros911, Tim Heany from KFFL, Rudy Gamble and Grey Albright from Razzball, Paul Bourdett from AOL Fantasy Fanhouse, Antonio D’Arcangelis from RotoExperts, Scott Swanay from Fantasy Sherpas, Chris Carbonell from the Starbonell BlogTalkRadio show, Charlie Saponara from FB365, and yours truly.
Given that it was a 15-team league and my second attempt ever, I don’t think I fared so badly. I’d say Adrian Gonzalez for $31 was a little much, but the top-tier first basemen went for closer to $40 and Albert Pujols went for $48, so I think I did okay there. Maybe $10 is too much for Paul Konerko, but Adam LaRoche went minutes later for $15 and I felt (much) better. Things happened a little differently with Alcides Escobar – ten minutes after wondering if I’d spent too much on him, Everth Cabrera went for $4 and I wondered if Escobar’s superior batting average (based on fewer Ks and minor league history) was worth $8. Maybe it will prove to be. Carlos Lee for $19 looks about as bad as he does in a uniform, but the crib sheet I was using from LastPlayerPicked.com had Lee worth $21 next year and I was happy to get the power production with a good batting average for relatively cheap. And as for Scott Podsednik and Gaby Sanchez, who both showed up on my NFBC teams, too: They were cheap. And I think they’ll play almost regularly all year. So that’s something.
On the pitching side, CC Sabathia went for less than Johan Santana ($28), Dan Haren ($31), Felix Hernandez ($33), Zack Greinke ($32) and Tim Lincecum ($41), so I was happy to get my ace for cheaper than most. I also preferred CC, despite his big innings totals, over Ubaldo Jimenez ($26) and Ricky Nolasco ($25) as much as I like the younger pitchers. Lord knows CC has put up big innings totals before.
Once I spent my top-closer money on Brett Anderson, I knew I’d be looking for value in the saves category. Advice from Baseball Prospectus’ Marc Normandin was ringing in my ear (punt saves!), but I decided I’d rather try to field a full team this time. Once he’s healthy, I happen to think that the Indians will want to run Kerry Wood out there at closer to pump up his value for a trade, meaning that between him and Ryan Madson, I think I might have a second closer in there somewhere.
It’s kind of a wonky team and seems devoid of elite, top-shelf talent, but it just might work. What do you guys think?
Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, and third basemen.)
These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.
Ryan Braun is in a league of his own. With his massive power, speed and plus batting averages, he’s the young Alex Rodriguez of the outfield.
That said, the second tier offers some nice talent and I’m sure some will feel that the first tier could be expanded. Carl Crawford matched his best two seasons with another .300/15/60 effort, and at 28 there’s no real reason to predict a downfall next year. If you’d like your speedster to come with a few home runs, he’s one of probably two players in the league capable of putting up 15 home runs alongside 55+ stolen bases. Matt Holliday is sort of a Braun-lite, but if the stars aligned, his power could surge and make them practically indistinguishable for fantasy purposes.
That’s where the arguments should end. Jason Bay is on the way down along with his batting average, and even with his nice power and a sprinkling of stolen bases, he’s no first-tier player. Manny Ramirez just won’t play enough games next year, shold be on the way down just because of his age (37), and now has the PED question mark. Adam Lind may someday be in the conversation for the first tier, but the power currently has too many question marks (+.100 ISO from 2008-2009).
The third tier is the value tier. The best tiers are the ones where up-and-coming youngsters share space with declining veterans because one or the other is sure to be over- or under-valued in a given league. Does your tier value veterans too highly? Let them have Carlos Lee and his waning power and speed. Someone sure that Alfonso Soriano will rediscover his mojo? Pick the surging Nolan Reimold for his power and enjoy his surprising speed many rounds later. Even Johnny Damon’s metronome-like 20/20-ish production deserves a look here. Given all of these options, it does look like Raul Ibanez won’t be on many of my teams next year. Not when I can possibly get more power from Carlos Quentin later on.
The last tier reminds us why we don’t pick outfielders too early. The final grouping boasts a player that could steal 40+ bases with a starting job in Julio Borbon, and a trio of sluggers that are likely to hit between 25-30 home runs in Matt LaPorta, Juan Rivera and Josh Willingham. Even the just-off candidates are interesting. If Seth Smith gets a starting job, he rockets up the list with .300/25/10 potential. Travis Snider is battling some strikeout issues at the major league level and doesn’t have a guaranteed job coming out of spring training, but deserves a mention because of his minor league numbers (1.094 OPS in AAA last year) and age (21).
One thing is clear when looking at the left fielders in 2010: Unless you’re getting Braun (or maybe Crawford), it’s wise to wait.
Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off an Emilio Bonifacio for Gil Meche trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.
Acquire
Chris Iannetta – The very limited track record in the majors and his .111 average makes Iannetta someone his current owner may want to move. The .067 BABIP and the .222 ISO are reasons you want to get him.
Justin Verlander – He is averaging over 95 mph with his fastball, the highest rate in his major league career. Verlander’s SO/BB ratio of 2.86 is also a career best. So, how does he have an 0-2 record with a 7.88 ERA? He has a .389 BABIP and a 38.8 LOB%. His FIP checks in at 3.88 this season. The Tigers are sixth in defensive efficiency rating in 2009, so we are looking at a lot of bad luck here.
Curtis Granderson – He is striking out at 17.3 percent, which would be his lowest total in the majors. But the hits are just not falling in yet, as his .220 BABIP will attest. Granderson has a lifetime .335 mark in the category. I am a little surprised at him having just one stolen base attempt (successful) but he has only eight singles and four walks so far, so Granderson has not had a ton of opportunities yet.
Carl Pavano – Sure, at this point Pavano is better known for his DL stints and for dating Alyssa Milano. But there is a pitcher inside trying to get out. If someone took a flier on him on Draft Day, they are no doubt disgusted by his 9.69 ERA. But Pavano has pitched decent in two of his three starts this season, all three of which have come on the road. After getting bombed in his first start at Texas, Pavano has a 3.75 ERA with 12 strikeouts and one walk in 12 IP at Kansas City and at New York. At one point in his life, Pavano was an 18-game winner.
Carlos Lee – With a .244-2-8 line so far this season, Lee is hardly doing awful but it is possible that an owner might be just a tad worried. This is one of the most consistent .300-30-100 guys around and if you can get him at any kind of discount at all, pull the trigger on the deal.
Dump
Carlos Pena – He is second in the majors with six home runs and tied for third with 15 RBIs which should make him very attractive to other owners. But call me crazy, I just do not think he can maintain a .680 SLG. Before the season, Pena was targeted almost exactly alike by all five projection systems, which saw him as a .255-31-77 kind of guy.
Chris Young – This is All-Star Chris Young, the Padres pitcher with the 2-0 record with 14 strikeouts in 16.2 innings. If you cannot trade him, at least take him out of your lineup whenever he makes a road start. Both wins this year have come at home, where he has a 1.38 ERA. Young has a 4.86 ERA on the season.
Orlando Hudson – The O-Dog is riding high, including the first cycle by a home player at Dodger Stadium. Hudson is doing everything you want a fantasy player to do, hitting for average, power and stealing bases. Too bad it cannot last. This is an injury-prone player, one who plays in the middle infield where he is likely to get banged up at some point in the season. But even if he stays healthy, Hudson is not likely to have a .400 BABIP or hit much better than his numbers away from Chase Field the past three seasons, where he batted .274/.339/.392 in 835 plate appearances.
Jarrod Washburn – Since winning 18 games with a 3.15 ERA in 2002, Washburn has pitched six seasons (175 starts), has not won more than 11 in a year and has posted an ERA above 4.32 in five of them. See if someone might be enticed by his 2-0 record with a 1.29 ERA.
Miguel Tejada – That .360 batting average sure looks nice. Too bad it is accompanied by no home runs and only one RBI. The power is gone and that gaudy average will not last.
One of the most undervalued fantasy players year-in and year-out is Carlos Lee. Last year, Lee was on pace for one of his best seasons ever before a finger injury ended his season in early August. At the time, Lee was in the midst of a prolonged hot streak. In his final 243 plate appearances of the year, he had a .366/.432/.648 line with 16 HR and 54 RBIs in 216 at-bats.
On first glance, it looks like Lee has declined two straight years, with falling numbers in HR, R and SB. Because of this, the Marcel and Oliver projections are not kind to Lee. Fantasy players perhaps have similar notions, as Lee has an ADP of 27 according to the latest information from Mock Draft Central. That makes him the ninth-rated outfielder.
Earlier, I extolled the virtues of Mark Teixeira and noted how he had averaged a .298-35-120-100 fantasy line over the past four years. Well, Lee has a .294-32-112-85 line in that same time frame but also has averaged 12 SB per year. If Teixeira is properly valued at 13, does it not seem a little low for Lee to be at 27?
Throughout his career, Lee has been very durable. Last year’s finger injury was a freak accident and reports have him representing Panama in the upcoming World Baseball Classic. Lee has seen no drop off in his hitting skills. He still does a good job with his plate discipline and his batted ball profile with a 21.2 percent line drive rate and a 43.6 percent fly ball rate last year stacks up nicely with his career numbers. Any fantasy player who gets Lee in the third round this year should be extremely happy.