Archive for Bumgarner

When introducing my 2018 bold predictions, I talked about “not being bold just to be bold.” I sought to demonstrate that, by “abiding by The Process ^TM,” I could make bold predictions that, frankly, didn’t feel all htat bold to me. In hindsight, it’s easy to say how they really weren’t bold. But back when I made them, based on available average draft position (ADP) data, they were, by definition, bold.

It would sound arrogant for me to say my bold predictions this year could be used as a clinic on extracting value in drafts (especially with the social baggage that “putting on a clinic” carries these days). However, it might not be untrue: I hit three of my five predictions, all of them relating to guys who played key roles in the drafts of successful teams this year. Please, do forgive the arrogance, then; I’ll do my best to explain how the strategies I employed this year are repeatable.

All end-of-season values will rely on ESPN’s Player Rater.

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If something about Madison Bumgarner’s first eight starts of 2018 have seemed odd to you, it’s because they have been. No matter the fielding independent pitching statistic to which you subscribe — FIP, xFIP, SIERA (although, frankly, it should be SIERA) — Bumgarner’s 2018 has not inspired confidence. Despite a dazzling (and quintessentially Bumgarnerian) 2.90 ERA, his baserunner suppression skills (i.e. strikeouts and walks) have lagged this year, and the various FIPs all portend severe bumps in the road. Granted, Bumgarner has outperformed his FIPs the last three years and throughout his career. I’m here to argue not that we should dismiss our concerns because of this but, instead, that such overperformance has insulated us from what should be potentially serious concerns about MadBum’s long-term health and success.

The problems with Bumgarner’s 2018 season — or at least the peripherals that underpin his 2018 season — thus far stem back not to his broken finger but, rather, something both farther back and much more dire. You may or may not recall Bumgarner fell off a dirt bike last year and injured his throwing shoulder. He returned from that injury almost exactly a year ago and promptly underwhelmed us. Sure, he posted a 3.43 ERA through September and has a 3.23 ERA in the calendar year since his return. It’s not vintage Bumgarner, but it’s not awful. But the peripherals, oh, the peripherals: his strikeout rate (K%) has caved dramatically, falling more than 6 percentage points (27.1% from April 2015 through April 2017; 20.9% from July 2017 onward).

It’s his fastball. Bumgarner’s fastball, once elite (relative to other four-seamers), is broken, and it has been broken for a year.

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You don’t care about this part! You care about the predictions.

I originally wrote my bold predictions for 2018 here; they arrived late and incomplete, but they arrived in some capacity, and that’s all we can ask for at this point.

I make bold predictions not for the sake of being bold but, rather, (1) using earnest judgments of player abilities and market inefficiencies and (2) to create teachable moments. My better bold predictions include prescient forecasts for Jose Ramirez and Austin Barnes; my worse ones have typically revolved around Giancarlo Stanton and Chris Davis in some capacity.

Let’s see how everything’s going so far.

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Apologies for publishing this more than a week after Opening Day. Life gets in the way sometimes.

I had grand plans to make a prediction for each defensive position (two for pitchers — one starter, one reliever). Turns out I won’t even make the standard 10 predictions. Again, apologies. As opposed to waiting any longer, I’m moving forward with my favorites and letting the others decay on the cutting room floor.

Here’s how my post, had it been published on time, would’ve started:

For me, making bold predictions is not about being bold just to be bold. It’s about abiding by The Process^TM — albeit sometimes by grasping at sabermetric straws — and using it to extract value where the market insists there is none (i.e., identify the market’s largest inefficiencies). Works vice versa, too. It also takes a little bit of balance to not make the predictions too bold so I don’t stand a chance to get any correct, but I also don’t want them to be too easily attainable, either.

In the past, The Process^TM has led me to prophetic predictions about Jose Ramirez and Austin Barnes. It has also led me to humiliating defeats, like predicting a Giancarlo Stanton bust preceding one of the more memorable seasons in recent history. Such is the nature of bold predictions; you must wear your victories loudly and proudly, but also own your mistakes. Above all, bold predictions should be teachable moments, not pissing contests.

FYI: I concocted these predictions prior to Opening Day, first week of the season be damned.

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