Archive for Bullpen Report

The Phillies, Red Sox and Twins have made it difficult to know who we can rely on for saves, but that’s been pretty much by design. Suddenly, the Braves’ bullpen has become possibly the toughest one to figure out.

When the Braves placed Arodys Vizcaino (shoulder) on the IL on Sunday, that appeared to actually simplify their bullpen situation, as A.J. Minter figured to inherit virtually all of the save opportunities. The lefty fared well enough on Sunday night, pitching a perfect ninth inning in a Braves 7-3 win over the Mets. The stakes were a little higher on Tuesday night, as Minter was charged with keeping the score knotted at 6-6, giving his offense a chance to top the Diamondbacks in the bottom of the ninth inning with a single run. It took only two pitches for Minter to allow the Diamondbacks to surge ahead, as Christian Walker drove a cutter in the middle of the strike zone for a solo home run. He was charged with two more runs when Jacob Webb allowed an Adam Jones double that brought in two inherited baserunners.
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Perplexing bullpen situations did not get less perplexing on Sunday.

After the Phillies’ 3-1, 14-inning win over the Marlins, I am leaving their portion of the closer grid untouched, but that hardly means that the saves picture is getting clearer. Brian Anderson‘s home run in the bottom of the sixth inning knotted the game up at 1-1, and it would stay that way for seven-and-a-half innings. Because the Phillies were the visiting team, it’s hard to read too much into Gabe Kapler’s choice to use Pat Neshek in the seventh, Adam Morgan and Hector Neris in the eighth and David Robertson in the ninth and 10th.
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Ken Giles‘ nearly perfect season finally hit a snag on Thursday night. Through his first six appearances, the Blue Jays’ closer had not allowed a run through 5.2 innings, and the only baserunners he put on were by way of two singles, a double and a walk. In appearance number seven, Giles started off the bottom of the ninth inning against the Red Sox by getting Andrew Benintendi to ground out, but that would be the last out he would get. After walking Mookie Betts and giving up a Mitch Moreland RBI double, the Blue Jays’ 6-5 lead had vanished.

Then Giles intentionally walked J.D. Martinez, but it backfired, as he loaded the bases with an unintentional walk to Xander Bogaerts and coughed up Rafael Devers‘ walk-off single. Devers’ chopper had an xBA of .100, but he wouldn’t have been in a position to win the game if Giles hadn’t issued three walks, two of which were unintentional. Walks have generally not been an issue for Giles the last couple of seasons, and he has been good at inducing out-of-zone chases throughout his career. Despite the poor results on Thursday night, there is no reason for Giles’ owners to panic.
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We often begin this column with the grisly details of the latest reliever meltdown. So why not start things off this time with some good news?

A pair of closers who had forgettable 2018 seasons are off to a nice start in 2019. Ken Giles recorded his third save in as many tries on Tuesday, securing the Blue Jays’ 7-5 win over the Red Sox. He has yet to allow a run in 5.2 innings, though this appearance was a little more eventful than his past ones from this season. Giles issued his first walk of the year, which came on the heels of a Dustin Pedroia leadoff single. Then he needed all of three pitches to retire Blake Swihart and Andrew Benintendi, and after going to a full count on Mookie Betts, Giles finished him off by getting him to chase a low slider.
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Having recorded his second save of the season, Ryan Brasier has surged into lead for saves in the Red Sox’s bullpen. However, there will be no such surging into the lead spot in the Red Sox’s portion of the closer grid.

It appears that Alex Cora may trust Matt Barnes to handle the highest leverage situations, and over the long haul, that could translate into more saves for him than for Brasier. On Sunday, as soon as the Red Sox took a 1-0 lead against the Diamondbacks on Mitch Moreland’s homer in the top of the seventh inning, Cora installed Barnes to pitch in the bottom of the inning to face the 4-5-6 portion of the Arizona order. He stayed on to pitch the eighth inning as well and retired all six batters he faced. With the top of the order due, Brasier came in to finish off the Diamondbacks and did so, allowing only a David Peralta double.
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During a night, which mostly went to plan with the shrinking herd of closers, a newly muddled, yet reported time share will ensue in Atlanta. Arodys Vizcaino flirted with disaster walking lead-off hitter Peter O’Brien, then allowing a double to Martin Prado. Vizcaino recovered to strikeout Curtis Granderson and Brian Anderson prior to issuing a walk to Neil Walker before inducing Starlin Castro to fly out to left field. This preserved a shutout win for the Braves, but no relief to Vizcaino owners in the WHIP department. He’s working about two MPH below his numbers from last year with his fastball and slider, plus reports suggest the health of his shoulder will need to be managed. A.J. Minter should not be on many waiver wires after this weekend, even in a shared role, he provides potential upside. Read the rest of this entry »

We went into Thursday’s skimpy slate of games with eight of the majors’ closer situations marked as committees in our grid, and we are now up to nine. A.J. Minter (shoulder) made his return from the IL on Thursday, and while he did not pitch in a save situation, he was called upon with one out in the ninth inning after Chad Sobotka let a 9-0 lead over the Cubs shrink to a 9-3 lead. Prior to Thursday night’s game, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Minter would share save opportunities with incumbent closer Arodys Vizcaino.
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Since writing the initial 2019 Bullpen Report after the Mariners-Athletics series in Tokyo, three closer competitions have been decided. As expected by many owners, Will Smith and Alex Colome respectively nailed down the Giants’ and White Sox’s closer jobs. In a much more surprising move, Torey Lovullo chose Greg Holland as the Diamondbacks’ closer over Archie Bradley and Yoshihisa Hirano. Fantasy owners are starting to warm up to Holland, as he is now owned in 44 percent of CBS leagues and 20 percent of ESPN leagues. I recently made the case for adding him, so rather than present that argument here, I simply refer you to the piece I wrote on him.
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Welcome to the 2019 RotoGraphs Bullpen Report!

As in past seasons, we will update and publish our team-by-team bullpen grid on a daily basis and provide analysis on relievers to pick up, drop or monitor. I’m unveiling the first iteration of the grid just below, and then we will begin our daily updates beginning next Friday.

With a week to go until Opening Day, Part 2, one-third of the closer situations are still very much in flux. For each of those 10 teams, I have denoted the relievers in the grid as being part of a committee. With the possible exception of the Giants, Diamondbacks and White Sox, a committee is a probable outcome for these teams once the season gets under way.
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With a 15.4 percent swinging strike rate, 32.6 percent strikeout rate, 5.3 percent walk rate and 24.1 percent soft contact rate, Trevor May has been doing just about everything you would want to see from a closer. Yet Paul Molitor has been faithfully sticking with Trevor Hildenberger as his closer in recent weeks, even with the latter Trevor posting a 5.74 ERA since the Twins traded Fernando Rodney to the Athletics.
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