Archive for Bruce Chen

Having the flu is a nightmare. The sweats, the all-night restlessness, the purging of all sorts of disgustingness from the body, it’s awful. Some like to huddle up under the covers all day for comfort. Some like to sip on some warm chicken soup. You know what makes me feel better? That’s right — the Kansas City Royals bullpen. Last season’s darlings in powder blue collectively posted a 7.3 WAR (second in the majors), a 9.57 K/9 (first), and a collective 2.55 ERA (second) over 461.2 innings. It was a thing of beauty, and best of all, they’re all returning again this season. Read the rest of this entry »

Obviously, if you talk to any legitimate stat junkie, they’d be able to tell you in a heartbeat, but ask any casual baseball fan which team bullpen was the most valuable to their team last year, and very few….probably none….would be able to tell you it was the Royals. With an overall WAR of 7.3 and such solid numbers like a 77.8-percent strand rate, an 8.5-percent HR/FB, a 3.17 ERA and a 8.58 K/9, the Royals pen was one of the team’s strongest assets. And this year probably won’t be much different as most of the components that made it so successful last year are back for more here in 2013. Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 24.

Brandon Beachy – After getting lit up in his first start after the All-Star break, Beachy has gone nine starts with a .267 ERA and a 1.019 WHIP. He continues to strike batters out at an impressive clip, with a 10.17 K/9 in that span. This week he gets two home starts and Beachy has done a very nice job keeping the ball in the park at Turner Field. In road games, he’s allowed 11 HR in 64 IP while at home it’s 5 HR in 62 IP. The matchups are favorable, as he goes up against FLA and NYM, so make sure Beachy is active.

Bruce Chen – While the matchups are favorable for Chen this week, with home starts against MIN and CHW, he has been beat up in his last two starts, as he’s allowed 10 ER in his last 11.1 IP. The common narrative is that after bouncing around for a number of years, Chen has finally learned how to pitch, evidenced by his 22-14 record the past two years for a poor KC team. But in those years, Chen has a 4.79 and 4.70 xFIP, right in line with his lifetime 4.71 xFIP. Put him on your bench.

Dillon Gee – At the end of June, Gee was 8-1 with a 3.32 ERA. Since then he’s gone 4-4 with a 5.89 ERA. He’s surrendered 12 HR in 62.2 IP in that span and has just a 1.53 K/BB ratio. Gee’s allowed 4 or more ER in 6 of his last 11 starts. Regression has caught up to Gee, who now has a 4.42 ERA and a 4.46 xFIP. Gee helped keep the Mets in the fringe of the Wild Card race the first three months of the season, but he’s not worth starting at this point of the season.

Aaron Harang – In his last four games, Harang has recorded fourth straight Quality Starts, doing a nice job of righting his season after he hit a mini-rough patch just after the All-Star break. In those four games, Harang has 24 Ks in 26 IP. He’s pitching well and has favorable matchups this week, as he squares off against Eric Surkamp and Joe Saunders, so make sure Harang is in your starting lineup.

Rick Porcello – With a 4.87 ERA, the tendency is to dismiss Porcello’s 13 Wins. But his xFIP is nearly a run lower at 4.03 and Porcello has done a nice job of improving his walk rate in the second half of the season, as he’s allowed just 9 BB in 59.1 IP. However, he’s been a bit unlucky in both his BABIP (.325) and HR rate (14.29) since the All-Star break. The other thing to keep in mind with Porcello is how he dominates RHB (.633 OPS) and struggles versus LHB (.881 OPS). He faces CHW and OAK this week, with neither team being a lefty-hitting powerhouse. Get Porcello in the lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 24 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, F. Hernandez, Cain, Hamels, Price, Cueto, Masterson, G. Gonzalez, Oswalt, Billingsley, Dempster, Niemann, Lohse, Harrison, Peavy, Dickey, Saunders, Moscoso, Myers, Britton, Surkamp, Pineiro, Eveland, Wakefield, Lincoln, Wang, Rogers, Volstad, Lopez.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 22 pitchers and how they fared.

Buehrle – Advised to start. W, 8 Ks, 5.73 ER, 1.636 WHIP, 11 IP, 7 ER
Cecil – Advised to sit. 7 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 12 IP, 8 ER
Davis – Advised to start. W, 8 Ks, 7.36 ERA, 1.909 WHIP, 11 IP, 9 ER
Fister – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 1.17 ERA, 0.522 WHIP, 7.2 IP, 1 ER
Kuroda – Advised to start. W, 3 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6 IP, 4 ER

Here is the latest update to Week 18 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Scherzer, Chen, Beaven.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Hughes, Fister, Huff.

Let’s take a look at Bruce Chen. Only family members, Royals fans and fantasy players could tell you that Chen had 12 Wins and a respectable 4.17 ERA last year for the Royals. In his last seven starts of 2010, Chen was 4-0 with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.015 WHIP. Still he was owned in less than 10 percent of fantasy leagues on Opening Day 2011.

According to Joe Lefkowitz’ site, Chen threw four pitches roughly the same percentage of the time in 2010. This year, he is throwing far fewer four-seam fastballs, roughly the same amount of sinkers and change-ups and more sliders than anything else. The slider is his primary pitch versus LHB while the changeup serves the same purpose for RHB.

Chen won his first three decisions and he was 4-1 with a 3.59 ERA after his start on May 5th. But he went on the disabled list with a strained back muscle, which caused him to miss seven weeks of the season. In his first five starts back from the DL, Chen posted a 2.90 ERA but was only 1-2. In his last start, the Royals lefty had his worst outing of his major league career, as he gave up 10 ER and saw his ERA jump from 3.30 to 4.29 on the season.

Some might say that was merely regression hitting all at once for Chen, as now his ERA is right in line with his xFIP (4.56). He did seem to be doing it with smoke and mirrors, as Chen has a career-low 5.45 K/9 and a 74.6 LOB%.

Overall this year, Chen has a 3.11 ERA at home and a 6.03 mark on the road. He’s allowed 7 HR in 31.1 IP in road games this year and 5 HR in 46.1 IP at Kauffman Stadium, one of the toughest parks to homer in this season.

This week Chen gets home starts against the Orioles and Tigers. Both teams are above-average in the AL in raw HR totals. Detroit also does well against LH starters, with a .735 against southpaw starters. Baltimore, however, ranks 13th in the 14-team loop with a .664 OPS against LH starters.

Likely available on the waiver wire, you could do worse then Chen as a streaming option for his two home starts this week. If your league has daily transactions, his game against Baltimore looks like the better matchup of his two in this upcoming period.

Here is the latest update to Week 23 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

NYY – Burnett
TAM – Price
STL – Smoltz
WAS – Lannan
TEX – McCarthy
PIT – McCutchen
CIN – Maloney
KC – Chen

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

KC – Bannister
TEX – Nippert
WAS – Mock
TAM – Sonnanstine
CIN – Lehr
NYM – Misch

Burnett was 10-4 at the end of July but since then has gone 0-4 with a 6.54 ERA and a 1.594 WHIP in seven games. He has allowed six HR in his last three games, two of which were on the road. Burnett has two home starts this week, including a game against the Rays, who are third in the league in homers.

Price has gotten a decision in 13 of his last 14 starts and has gone 6-7 in that span. Five of his six wins have been Quality Starts and he has not allowed more than two runs in those six games. But in the seven losses Price has allowed 33 runs and has just one Quality Start. He has a huge home/road split, with a 6-3 record and a 3.32 ERA at Tropicana Field, compared to a 6.81 road ERA. Price has road games this week at New York and at Boston.

Smoltz has made three starts for the Cardinals and has 1 BB and 21 SO in 17 IP. And while he allowed 8 HR in 40 IP in the American League, Smoltz has surrendered just 1 HR in the National League. His first start this week is against the Brewers, the team that scored four runs in six innings against him, three on a HR by Casey McGehee.

Lannan is 2-5 with a 5.13 ERA in his last 11 games. Prior to that, he had won four straight decisions after altering his pitching style to reduce strikeouts and pitch to contact. In the last 11 games, Lannan has a 24/21 SO/BB ratio and has only topped three strikeouts in a game once, when he notched 6 Ks in a win against the Marlins.

McCarthy has made one start since being activated from the disabled list, where he spent nearly three months recovering from a stress fracture in his right shoulder. For the year, McCarthy has an average fastball velocity of 89.2 percent but in his first outing back, he averaged 86.6 and maxed out at 88.4, yet still picked up his sixth win of the season. McCarthy has a 5.91 road ERA this season and has one home and one road game this week.

McCutchen won his major league debut last week against the Reds and notched a Quality Start, going 6 IP with 3 ER. Acquired from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady deal, McCutchen throws in the low 90s and if he can keep the ball in the park, he has a chance. Last year in Triple-A, McCutchen allowed 22 HR in 118.1 IP and went 7-9. This year in Triple-A, he allowed 10 HR in 142.2 IP and went 13-6. McCutchen allowed a leadoff homer to Drew Stubbs in his major league debut.

Maloney has made four starts in the majors and given up two homers in each of them. He has a 0.53 GB/FB ratio and a 20 percent HR/FB mark. Maloney has road starts this week at Colorado and at Chicago. Clint Barmes and Troy Tulowitzki have combined to hit 17 HR versus LHP this year, although no one on the Cubs has more than 4 HR versus southpaws.

Chen is likely to remain in the rotation with injuries to Brian Bannister and Gil Meche. He is a decent strikeout pitcher, with a 6.87 K/9 mark but that is the only thing Chen has going for him fantasy-wise. Both his ERA and FIP are over 5.00 and his WHIP checks in at 1.49. Like Maloney, he is a flyball pitcher (0.57 GB/FB) and he has a 1.64 HR/9 mark. Since notching 13 W with the Orioles in 2005, Chen has just one victory in the majors since, although it did come this season.