Archive for Brian Tallet

Here is the latest update to Week 10 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

KCR – Zack Greinke
CHC – Carlos Silva
WAS – Stephen Strasburg
LAD – Hiroki Kuroda
BAL – Kevin Millwood
TOR – Brian Tallet
HOU – Brian Moehler
OAK – Vin Mazzaro
PIT – Jeff Karstens

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TOR – Shaun Marcum
OAK – Brett Anderson
CHC – Randy Wells
KCR – Kyle Davies
BAL – Brad Bergesen
LAD – Carlos Monasterios

Greinke is not pitching bad but has only a 1-7 record to show for it. While few expected him to match 2009’s output, neither did they expect a 3.60 ERA or a 4.27 xFIP. Still he has eight Quality Starts and a 1-3 record in those games.

Silva has more wins (7) this year than he had the past two years combined (5) with the Mariners. He is enjoying a career-high 6.29 K/9 and a career-low 1.10 WHIP. A 77.7 strand rate has led to a higher FIP but even that is a very nice 3.86, which is nearly identical to his xFIP.

Strasburg makes his long-awaited major league debut versus the Pirates and he already finds himself active in 61 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Strasburg went 7-2 with a 1.30 ERA in 11 minor league starts split between Double and Triple-A. He allowed 13 BB and notched 65 Ks in 55.1 IP.

Kuroda has allowed 11 R (8 ER) in his last 10 IP. Yet his ERA is virtually the same as it was his first two seasons in the U.S. The big difference is his WHIP. In 2010 Kuroda sports a 1.40 WHIP compared to 1.22 and 1.14 his first two seasons with the Dodgers.

Millwood has pitched better than his 0-6 record might lead you to believe. He has struggled with the gopher ball in his new home park in Camden Yards. Millwood has surrendered 9 HR at home compared to 5 HR on the road. But his home ERA is 3.28 and on the road he has a 5.11 ERA. This week he has home starts against the Yankees and Mets.

Tallet is back after missing six weeks with an injured forearm. His first start back he pitched 5.2 scoreless innings after posting a 6.11 ERA in his first three starts before hitting the DL.

Moehler is in his 14th season in the majors. He has appeared in 14 games this year with the Astros but has made just two starts. After getting roughed up in his first outing, in which he allowed 3 HR in 2.2 IP, Moehler allowed 2 ER in 5.1 IP last time out against the Nationals. This week he gets road starts against the Rockies and the Yankees.

Mazzaro has pitched out of the bullpen in his last three games but gets the call to start after picking up a win in his last relief outing. He has been homer prone, with a 19.0 HR/FB ratio in 2010. He faces the Angels and Giants, with the Angels being a good HR hitting team.

Karstens has appeared in 10 games and made four starts for the Pirates this year. He is 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA as a starter compared to 0-0 with a 5.65 ERA pitching out of the pen. His K/9 rate is similar in both roles but Karstens has displayed much better control as a reliever. He has a 1.40 K/BB ratio as a starter and a 2.67 ratio as a reliever.

This weekend’s Interleague Series featuring Toronto and Washington may not be a huge draw south of the border, but there are three interesting things to keep an eye on. Firstly, the Nationals were, of course, originally Canada’s first Major League Baseball team – the Montreal Expos. Secondly, it will be the first time that the two clubs have met up since Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi made some disparaging remarks in the media about (then Cincinnati Reds slugger) Adam Dunn, who now plays in Washington. Do you think Dunn will be locked in?

Thirdly, and most interestingly (as far as I am concerned), this series will feature appearances from five (out of the possible six) rookie starters. Toronto will send veteran Brian Tallet to the mound on Friday, but then he will be followed by rookies Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero. Interestingly, all three pitchers are left-handers. Washington will counter with three rookies this weekend: Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler (also a southpaw), and Shairon Martis. The Washington line-up is right-handed heavy (with the exception of Dunn and Nick Johnson) so the on-paper match-up goes to the Nationals.

Brett Cecil, 22, pitched fairly well in his first three Major League games this season. It was his fourth start that doomed him and sent him back to the minors. On May 20 in Boston, Cecil allowed 11 hits in 4.2 innings of work, along with two walks and five home runs. Overall, he has allowed 28 hits in 24.2 innings of work, while allowing seven homers and posting rates of 2.19 BB/9 and 6.57 K/9. His ERA is 4.38 but his FIP is 6.39. Cecil also has a ground-ball rate of 52%.

Ricky Romero has been a savior to the Jays’ rotation in 2009, despite missing time with an oblique strain (but what Jays pitcher hasn’t been injured this season). The 24-year-old former No. 1 draft pick has a 3.73 ERA (4.77 FIP) and has allowed 52 hits in 50.2 innings of work. He’s also posted a walk rate of 2.84 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.28 K/9. Romero has a ground-ball rate of 50%.

Jordan Zimmermann, 23, has been inconsistent this season, but his talent is obvious. In 57 innings, he has allowed 61 hits, while posting rates of 2.53 BB/9 and 9.47 K/9. His ERA is 5.37 but his FIP is just 3.79. He has a ground-ball rate of just 44.2%, which has been hurt by a line-drive rate of 25.0%.

Ross Detwiler, 23, has a 5.23 ERA, but once again a Nationals pitcher has a much lower FIP at 3.83. He has allowed 36 hits in 32.2 innings of work. He’s also posted a walk rate of 3.86 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.34 BB/9. Detwiler has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with just two homers allowed (0.55 HR/9).

Shairon Martis, 22, has pitched more than any other rookie pitcher in this series at 75 and he’s allowed just 69 hits. His rates, though, are not that good with a walk rate of 4.04 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 3.45 K/9. His ERA is currently 4.75, with a FIP of 5.14. He’s allowed eight home runs (0.85 BB/9). With a ground-ball rate of just 41.3%, Martis is constantly flirting with disaster thanks to his modest fastball (an average of 90 mph) and his spotty control.

The youth movement in Major League Baseball is in all its glory this weekend in Washington. In fact, the Jays organization actually has more rookies in its Major League rotation right now, than it does in triple-A Las Vegas. So who do you think will win the battle of the rookies – in both this series and in the years to come?

Here is the latest update to Week 8 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

KC – Greinke
ARI – Scherzer
TB – Price
SEA – Washburn
TOR – Tallet
CIN – Owings

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TB – Kazmir
NYY – Hughes
TOR – Cecil
ARI – Augenstein
SEA – Jakubauskas
BAL – Eaton

Greinke gave up a season-high eight hits in his last outing but also notched his ninth Quality Start in nine games.

Scherzer has been pitching well with four Quality Starts in his last five games. The one poor outing came at Chase Field when he gave up three home runs to the Nationals. Scherzer has a 6.75 ERA at home this year compared to a 1.86 ERA in neutral road parks. Scherzer has two home games this week.

Price was hardly overwhelming in eight games in Triple-A but gets the call with Kazmir going on the DL. He was 1-4 with a 3.93 ERA at Durham. Price had an impressive 9.17 K/9 but a poor 4.72 BB/9.

Washburn started the year with three Quality Starts but since then he is 0-3 with a 5.34 ERA. Washburn had his last start pushed back due to tightness in his left knee, although the Mariners do not consider the injury a serious one.

Tallet has a 4.17 ERA in seven games as a starter, compared to a 6.14 ERA in four games as a reliever. After a 10-run outing in his final start in April, Tallet has reeled off four straight Quality Starts and has a 1.000 WHIP in that time frame.

Owings’ strikeouts are down nearly two per game from a year ago. He is also getting fewer swings out of the strike zone and batters are making better contact than they were last season. Owings has failed to complete six innings in five of his eight starts this year.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Brett Cecil and J.J. Hardy last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Ramon Hernandez – Throughout his career, Hernandez has delivered solid HR totals for a catcher. In his last three seasons, he averaged nearly 16 HR per season. So far this year, Hernandez has only one homer. The Great American Ball Park is the sixth-best park for HR this year, according to the single-season park factors at ESPN. Hernandez is not hitting as many fly balls as he has recently, but the falloff has not been dramatic (only 1.5% below last year) and he should deliver more power going forward.

Matt Harrison – After giving up 15 ER in his first 14.2 IP, Harrison has allowed just six ER in his last 30 innings. It would be nice if he struck out a few more batters, but his BABIP is .301, he gets groundballs (1.40 GB/FB) and he has a 0.81 HR/9. The big lefty averages nearly 91 with his fastball, throws four pitches and his FIP is almost identical to his ERA.

Billy Butler – In his first 18 games of the season, Butler had a .193 AVG with zero HR and three RBIs. Since then he has a .348-3-15-15-0 fantasy line, also in 18 games. Butler arrived in the majors with a reputation of being a good hitter with limited defensive value. He has found a home at first base and the bat may be finally coming around. Butler probably won’t hit enough HR to be a starting first baseman but should have a good average and double-digit HRs.

Brian Tallet – A reliever at the beginning of the year, Tallet moved into the rotation on April 24th and has pitched very well as a starter in four of his five outings. The lone bad start was a meltdown, in which he allowed 10 ER in four innings, and that is keeping his overall numbers high. Tallet is owned in less than two percent of ESPN leagues and is a nice pickup for the back of your rotation.

Matt Holliday – Overrated at the beginning of the year with an ADP of 12, Holliday compounded things by getting off to a terrible start. But the average is starting to pick up and he has hit three HR in May after posting zero in April. Clearly, he is not going to be the fantasy stud that he was in Colorado, but ZiPS projects him to hit .284 with 19 HR and 77 RBIs the rest of the season.

Trade

Russell Branyan – A near lock to post career highs in every single fantasy category, Branyan is unlikely to keep up his current rate of production. No one ever doubted his power but his .368 BABIP and .333 ISO are unsustainable over a full season. A platoon or bench player throughout his career, Branyan has done it for six-plus weeks now as a full-time player and there should be a market for his bat, especially from an owner light on HR.

Jered Weaver – In his last six games, Weaver has five Quality Starts. But he’s been the beneficiary of some good fortune. Overall, he has a .228 BABIP and an 84.1 percent strand rate. Weaver has had an ERA within 0.50 of his FIP the past two seasons but this year his FIP is 4.10 compared to a 2.59 ERA.

Pedro Feliz – He has never been a good hitter for average because his BABIP has never topped .300 in any season in which he played more than 10 games. This year it sits at .343 which has led to a .308 AVG. Feliz used to be a consistent power source. He hit between 20-22 HR in four straight seasons but saw his power output drop to 14 last year. His FB% is in decline and he will need to reverse that trend (and hope for a regression in his HR/FB rate) just to match 2008’s output.

Wandy Rodriguez – One of the top fantasy pitchers so far in 2009, Rodriguez has flown somewhat under the radar due to the fantastic starts by Zack Greinke and Johan Santana. Most of Rodriguez’ numbers do not scream out regression but they are all better than career norms, which has a nice overall effect. The one exception is that he has not allowed a single HR this season in 52 IP, despite playing half his games in Minute Maid Park, which is the third-best park for HR this year.

Fred Lewis – Last year Lewis proved he could handle a full-time role and he opened the year in the coveted third-spot in the Giants’ lineup. Since then he has hit for a solid average but not produced much in other categories. Lewis has also bounced around in the lineup, batting every slot in the order except cleanup. That makes it hard to predict his R, RBI and SB going forward. ZiPS does not see him improving on last year’s numbers and even sees him falling off in AVG. Trade him now while his .294 AVG still looks good.