Archive for brian matusz

While the Orioles are making headlines with signings of Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz, it’s time to take a look at another aspect of the team in which they’ve made some changes. Gone is Jim Johnson, a two-time 50-save closer for the O’s and while they were all set to bring in free agent Grant Balfour, they were unhappy with the results of his physical and opted to fill the vacancy in-house. So let’s take a look at what Baltimore’s bullpen is looking like right now. Read the rest of this entry »

– Dog bites man, taxes are collected, and Nelson Cruz has a hamstring problem. Cruz’s season hasn’t been what fantasy owners were hoping for — especially in OBP or OPS leagues — but at least he’s already made it through 113 games. Cruz is a good example of the fantasy replacement level principle: when you draft him, you get his usually outstanding production for 100 games, and then replacement level production when he goes on the DL. It’s not like you don’t get to have someone take his spot in the lineup after he gets hurt. Certain owners take advantage of this every year, draft Cruz a round or two early while understanding they won’t be getting a full season from him. Cruz isn’t a youngster anymore, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he slipped a bit in drafts next season. If he does, someone’s probably getting a good deal.

Read the rest of this entry »

During the Keeper Conundrum series, I got some nice suggestions in the comments. Today, I finish of the series by continuing to look at some of your ideas.

Ervin Santana
While he still hasn’t lived up to his 2008 break out, and likely never will, Santana has had a solid fantasy season. But, his periperals weren’t that far off from last season’s, leaving him with yet another regression year.
Crude 2011 Projection: 205 IP, 4.00 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I can guarantee you didn’t pay anything for him, so keep him on your roster next season.

Edwin Jackson
The addition of cutter upon arriving to Chicago made Jackson a second-half stud. Even though he’s been around the block, he’ll still only be 27 next year. If Jackson can continue his second-half surge, he’ll be one of the top pitchers in all of fantasy baseball next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: 210 IP, 3.70 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s going to be solid next year, and I want a piece of that action.

Brian Matusz
Matusz has always been in my doghouse, thanks to his extreme fly ball tendencies. But, he did pitch extremely well in the last two months of the year, with xFIP’s around 4.00. I’m hoping he can take a step in the right direction next year, but I’m not going to bet much on it.
Crude 2011 Projection: 190 IP, 4.00 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s very young, and pretty raw, and I want to see if he can keep performing at the level he showed late this year.

Andrew Bailey
His injury throws his status up in the air, but he did well upon his return. We only have a 132 inning sample, so we don’t know how high his BABIP should really be.
Crude 2011 Projection: 55 IP, 2.25 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. He’s probably in line for some progression, and we don’t know if the A’s are going to be any good next year.

Thanks for all the suggestions this week, hope this helped you in some way.

A four-pitch lefty taken fourth overall in the 2008 draft, Brian Matusz shredded minor league bats during his pro debut — in 113 innings split between the High-A Carolina League and the Double-A Eastern League, the San Diego star whiffed 9.5 batters per nine frames, walked 2.5 per nine and compiled a 3.02 FIP. Matusz reached the Charm City less than a year after he and the Orioles agreed on a major league contract worth a little more than $3.4 million. He placed fifth on Baseball America’s list of the best farm talents in the game prior to 2010, and Matusz recently ranked #44 in Dave Cameron’s Trade Value series. Suffice it to say, Matusz comes with quite the prospect pedigree.

While there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll emerge as a valuable commodity to the O’s and fantasy owners alike, Matusz holds a 5.11 ERA through his first 32 starts at the big league level. Now that the 23-year-old has pitched at the highest level for a little more than a year, this seems like a good time to examine what the former Torero needs to do to avoid getting gored by hitters.

Matusz has 7.12 K/9 and 3.36 BB/9 in 174.1 innings pitched. While he showed slight ground ball tendencies during his short stay in the minors (48.1 GB%), the 6-5 southpaw has gotten grounders just 35.4% of the time in the majors. That has led to his giving up 1.08 homers per nine innings, despite a home run per fly ball rate (8.5%) that’s below the 10-11% MLB average. All of those fly balls are concerning, given that Camden Yards increased the rate at which flies turn into souvenirs by 15 percent over the 2006-2009 seasons. If Matusz had given up home runs on fly balls at an average rate (11%) on the road and 13% at home, he would have served up over a homer and a half per nine innings instead.

In a couple of other respects, however, Matusz has been unlucky. He’s got a .331 BABIP, which is very high for any starter, much less an extreme fly ball pitcher. While the flies that aren’t caught are generally quite harmful, fly balls do have a lower BABIP than ground balls. Matusz’s BABIP on flies is .165, while the AL average is closer to .140. He also has a .781 BABIP on line drives, compared to the .720-.730 AL average. We don’t yet have enough information to say whether that’s noise or something more significant, but odds are his BABIP falls.

His rate of stranding runners on base (68.6%) my creep into the low-70’s, too — based on this formula developed by Dave Studeman, Matusz’s LOB rate should be closer to 71%. Overall, Matusz’s expected 4.65 FIP (xFIP), based on his rate of K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is nearly a half-run lower than his actual ERA.

Matusz has gone to his 90-91 MPH fastball about 63% of the time, adding in a low-80’s changeup (19%), a mid-70’s curveball (10%) and a low-80’s slider (8%). That expansive repertoire has garnered swinging strikes at a near-average clip (8.3%). He’s putting plenty of pitches within the strike zone — 54.3% last year (49.3% MLB average in ’09) and 49.2% this season (46.8% MLB average). Opponents are making contact with those in-zone offerings just 85.5% (87-88% MLB average). However, they’re getting the bat on the ball often when swinging at pitches thrown off the plate. Matusz’s O-Contact rate was 65.7% last season (61.7% MLB average in ’09) and it’s 73.9% in 2010 (66.6% MLB average).

Against fellow lefties, Matusz is a monster (11.47 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 3.18 xFIP). Right-handers, by contrast, aren’t trembling at the prospect of facing him (5.93 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 5.06 xFIP). Check out his whiff rates by pitch type versus lefties and righties, from TexasLeaguers.com:

Keep in mind that the sample sizes aren’t massive here. That being said, opposite-handed hitters haven’t been fooled near as much, especially against Matusz’s fastball.

Brian Matusz remains a keeper-league favorite, but he’ll have to overcome his fly ball proclivities and find a way to make righties come up empty more often to take the next step in his career.

Ah, a Friday before a long weekend rolls around, and it should be time for a waiver wire piece. How many of us are just furiously setting our lineups for a weekend away, though? Let’s instead take a look at a pitcher giving some people fits this year.

Brian Matusz is only owned in 24% of Yahoo leagues, and for good reason – he has had some clear faults that are plaguing him this year. While his strikeout rates (7.66 last year, 7.41 this year) and walk rates (2.82 last year, 3.29 this year) have been largely similar, and it’s easy to point to his inflated BABIP (.370) as the reason for the poor ERA this year, there is clearly more going on. Even taking into account his poor-ish strand rate (63.9%), ZiPs RoS calls for a 4.70 ERA, and it looks like we can blame his groundball rate for a good portion of that.

Matusz is only inducing 32.8% of his contact on the ground, and that is good for second-worst in the league (to Kevin Slowey). It’s not good to be a fly-ball pitcher in the American League, and in Baltimore in particular (1.616 park factor for home runs so far this year). There are some mitigating circumstances in this case, though. For one, Matusz was not a worm-burner extraordinaire in the minors, but he did put up an okay 48.1% career groundball percentage in his short time passing through the system. Also, only five qualifying pitchers in baseball last year had a groundball rate under 35%. The message there is that either Matusz will induce more groundballs or he won’t qualify for the ERA title.

Helpful, eh? Well, here’s something more interesting: it may have to do with his pitching mix and possibly his curveball in particular. That may seem strange to say about a pitch that he has only thrown about 10% of the time over his career, but the curveball was also his only positive pitch by linear weights this year. Why is he throwing less often this year if it was, by at least one statistic, the best pitch he had last year?

It seems he’s struggling with it. Last year the pitch found the strike zone 58.3% of the time and got 8.3% whiffs according to Texas Leaguers. This year those numbers are 52.5% and 6.1% accordingly. Since 8.5-9% is usually average for whiff rate, his curveball went from average to below-average in one offseason. Then again, his changeup is getting 21.7% whiffs this year, which is elite. Perhaps he really should just be throwing the changeup more. If so, the news that he’s throwing the changeup 18% of the time this year versus 12% of the time last year should be good news (according to Texas Leaguers / MLB data).

In any case, we have a guy with an above-average ability to strike people out, average control, and at least one elite pitch by whiff rates. Those good qualities are balanced by a poor groundball rate, and a pitching mix in flux. Here’s a bet that he does figure out that mix, brings that groundball rate into ‘average’ territory, the luck stats regress toward the mean, and Matusz magically becomes a better pitcher. That pitcher may only be a matchups pitcher in mixed leagues right now, but deep keeper league managers should take heart. There’s something to like about Matusz still.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Josh Hamilton – There were a lot of doubts about Hamilton coming into the season, specifically if he could remain healthy. So far, so good on that end, although there will always be health-related concerns around him. Hamilton is laying off more pitches outside of the zone and has the highest BB% (11.6) of his career. Some will look at his .333 BABIP and 14.3 HR/FB rate and conclude this is the best he is going to do all season. But from a fantasy perspective, Hamilton could see a big rise in RBIs in the coming months. The Rangers have already removed OBP sinkhole Julio Borbon from the top of the order and hopefully Ian Kinsler can slot into his customary position ahead of Hamilton and bring his .391 OBP with him.

Justin Masterson – An 0-3 record and a 5.40 ERA has Masterson owned in only 41 percent of CBS Sports leagues. But it is hard to imagine anything but the shallowest leagues where a 10.46 K/9 is not worthy of a roster spot. Masterson’s walk rate has never been good in the majors, and this year is no exception with a 4.05 BB/9. But what is really hurting him this year is a 26.7 HR/FB rate. Masterson has allowed 4 HR in 26.2 IP. His xFIP checks in at 3.11. Previously Masterson has had normal HR/FB rates and if it regresses to those levels the rest of the year, he should be a very valuable fantasy pitcher, even on the 10-16 Indians.

Scott Rolen – The past three seasons, Rolen has played in 128, 115 and 112 games so he is not the most durable player out there. But he remains a productive hitter while in the lineup. And right now Rolen’s numbers are being dragged down by a .239 BABIP. He has a nice .250 ISO, thanks to 6 HR in 84 ABs. Obviously he will not be able to keep up that HR pace, but Rolen should easily surpass preseason expectations that he would hit just 10-14 HR. He has really enjoyed hitting in the Great American Ballpark, as lifetime Rolen has 14 HR in 208 ABs at the GABP. And once he raises his current .200 BABIP in road parks, Rolen could be on his way to his best season since 2006.

SELL

Jaime Garcia – Everyone’s favorite rookie pitcher, Garcia has seen his CBS Sports ownership jump from 24 percent at the beginning of the year to 84 percent now. We know all about his phenomenal ground ball rate and how pitching coach Dave Duncan has had success in the past with these types of hurlers. But now is the time to sell high. He has a 3.73 xFIP and RoS ZiPS projects him with a 4.43 ERA (although its IP estimate seems way off). Garcia is likely to remain a useful to good fantasy pitcher the rest of the season, but like Joel Pineiro can tell you, eventually you give up some homers regardless of how many ground balls you allow.

Kevin Gregg – If you look at Gregg’s FanGraphs page you might conclude that his success this season is due to throwing fewer fastballs and sliders and more cutters and splitters. Last year both his cutter and splitter were below-average pitches and both have been tremendous in 2010, helping Gregg to a 64.3 GB%. But PitchFX guru Mike Fast thinks that Gregg has not really changed his arsenal much at all and that it is more of a reclassification of the BIS identification system. Gregg has lost his closer’s role for the Marlins in 2008 and the Cubs in 2009. Right now he is on a nice hot streak so look to sell high before regression hits since he likely has not added anything new to his repertoire.

Aramis Ramirez – Many people view Ramirez as a buy candidate, since he got off to such a terrible start (perhaps due to not being fully recovered from injury) and his BABIP is so low. But the strikeouts are alarming, with his 25.7 K% the first time since his rookie year in 1998 that it tops 20 percent. Ramirez is not chasing more pitches out of the zone and his O-Contact% is nearly identical to what it was last year. Instead, it appears that most of the trouble comes from catching up to fastballs. Ramirez has a Z-Contact% down over 9 percent from last year and his wFB/C has gone from 1.36 a season ago to -4.90 in 2010. Meanwhile his wSL/C has nearly tripled, going from 0.55 to 1.44. Ramirez has started to hit better in the last week (only 4 Ks in his last 38 ABs, although with a .184 AVG) but there should be at least a little bit of concern about his slider-speed bat. This is not a recommendation to sell at all costs but to see if you can get close to his preseason value. RoS ZiPS still forecasts him to finish with 20 HR and 97 RBIs, nearly identical to its preseason prediction of 21 and 101. But I am not optimistic that he will hit those marks.

HUNCH

Brian Matusz – Most people would shy away from a rookie pitcher in the AL East who is a flyball pitcher in front of the Orioles outfield defense. While coolstandings.com shows the remainder of the Orioles schedule against teams with a .545 winning percentage, I like Matusz to exceed his Updated ZiPS marks of 10 W, 4.51 ERA and 7.16 K/9.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Baltimore Orioles club that finished fifth overall in the American League East division with a record of 64-98. As a team, the Orioles posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -9.93, third worst in the Majors.

The Good: Adam Jones, CF
The Baltimore organization has one of the best young outfields in all of baseball with the emergence of Jones and Nolan Reimold in 2009. Further growth from Felix Pie could make things even more interesting as the group joins Nick Markakis. Jones’ WAR actually dropped in ’09 from 2.2 to 1.9 but that was due to a regression in the field. Offensively, with better patience at the plate, Jones’ line improved to .277/.335/.457 with an ISO of .180. He should see even more doubles and homers as he increases his fly-ball rate from 28.1%. What this means for 2010 is that Jones has a very good chance of becoming a 20 HR/15 SB player who will also post a respectable batting average and score some runs.

The Bad: The Pitching Staff
It’s not really fair to single out any one pitcher; most of the hurlers on the staff were disappointing. Collectively, Baltimore pitchers allowed the most hits in the American League, while posting the worst FIP and highest home-run rate in the Majors. Young pitchers Chris Tillman (2.08 HR/9) and David Hernandez (2.40) struggled mightily with the long ball. They also posted FIPs above 6.00. Veteran hurler Jeremy Guthrie posted a homer rate of 1.54 HR/9. Former closer Chris Ray made his return from Tommy John surgery but he posted a walk rate of 4.78 BB/9 and posted a 2.01 WHIP. Japanese import Koji Uehara looked good early but then he got hurt (torn flexor tendon). He’ll enter 2010 at the age of 35.

The good news is that Tillman and Hernandez both experienced common growing pains for young pitchers. Tillman, in particular, looks like a future stud; he just needs better command. Brian Matusz is another promising hurler who made eight starts and will enter 2010 as an early favorite for Rookie of the Year in the American League (Tillman’s eligibility has expired). Both should be keeper-league targets. Neither Ray nor Uehara enter ’10 as fantasy favorites, although Uehara has some value if he’s healthy.

To begin the 2009 season, Baltimore Orioles fans were treated to a starting rotation that included the likes of Koji Uehara, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton, Rich Hill, and Alfredo Simon. There is no reason to ask why the club is in last place, 23 games out of first in the American League East.

Guthrie and Uehara have not been terrible. At the age of 30, Guthrie doesn’t really have any upside left but he’s developed into a fairly dependable No. 3 starter. He is exposed, though, if a club relies on him to be a No. 1 or 2 starter, which he’s been in Baltimore. Uehara, who came over from Japan prior to the 2009 season, has a torn flexor tendon in his elbow and hasn’t pitched since June. His numbers weren’t bad prior to the injury but the 34-year-old right-hander was pitching like a No. 4 starter.

As grim as the above information is, the future is extremely bright for the Orioles’ starting pitching staff. Fans in Baltimore have already been treated to the MLB debuts for the club’s top two pitching prospects: Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz. Both players have been roughed up a bit at times – mainly due to a lack of command – but their potential is evident. They project to fill in the top of the Orioles’ starting rotation for years to come.

Brad Bergesen has been a surprise contributor to the rotation this season as a rookie. The right-hander was flying under the radar of prospect watchers but he’s made 19 starts for the club and has allowed 126 hits in 123 innings of work. He has a solid ERA at 3.43, as well as a respectable FIP at 4.08. His walk rate is marvelous at 2.34 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is alarmingly low at 4.74 K/9. Bergesen, though, lives and dies by the ground ball and currently has a ground-ball rate of 50.1%. With a fastball that sits right around 89-90 mph, and a good slider, Bergesen, 23, could fill the No. 4 or 5 starter’s role for the Orioles for quite some time.

Like Bergesen, David Hernandez has also provided more innings for the club than expected in ’09. The right-hander has pitched reasonable well, although he’s been a little too hittable with 60 hits allowed in 52.1 innings of work. His walk rate is OK at 3.61 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is quite low at 4.82 K/9, especially considering that he was averaging K/9 rates of 9.50 to 11.00 in the minors. Hernandez is also an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a ground-ball rate of just 29.3%. His stuff is good, though, as he’s been average around 93 mph on the fastball and he also has a solid slider, and an OK changeup. He could battle Bergesen in the future for a back-of-the-rotation spot with the loser moving to the bullpen.

Rookie Jason Berken has made 14 starts with the Orioles but has an ERA of 6.72 (FIP of 5.01). He’s allowed 89 hits in 69.2 innings of work, while also posting rates of 3.49 BB/9 and 5.04 K/9. His ground-ball rate is just 38.1% and his line-drive rate is 24.2%. Berken is getting hit hard despite a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball that averages 92 mph. The 25-year-old pitcher is probably best suited to bullpen work, but he could become a valuable swing pitcher.

The Orioles club still has two pitchers remaining in triple-A and double-A who should both settle into the MLB rotation within the next year: Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe. Matusz jumped over Arrieta after the latter pitcher hit a three-start rough patch in triple-A from July 24-Aug. 3. The right-hander dominated high-A and double-A, but he’s struggled a bit with consistency in triple-A. Regardless, the 23-year-old pitcher has all the potential necessary to be a very good No. 3 starter in the Majors, including low-to-mid-90s fastball, slider, curve and changeup.

Erbe has gotten lost in the shuffle a bit because of a rough 2007 at high-A ball (although he was just 19 years of age at the time). Now 21, the right-hander has been slowed by some injuries this season but he’s been dominant as of late. In his last start against the Jays’ double-A affiliate, he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning. On the season, he has allowed 29 hits in 47.2 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of 3.97 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.55 K/9. Both those rates will surely improve once he gains better command of his pitches, which include a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a plus slider and an OK changeup. Right-handed batters are hitting just .138 against him.

If all goes well, the Orioles rotation could eventually stack up like this:
1. Chris Tillman, RHP, age 21
2. Brian Matusz, LHP, 22
3. Brandon Erbe, RHP, 21
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP, 23
5. Brad Bergesen, RHP, 23

6. David Hernandez, RHP, 24
7. Jason Berken, RHP, 25

For fantasy baseball managers, the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching depth offers some very intriguing options in keeper leagues. For Orioles fans, the above depth chart is exciting news after enduring a very ugly April.

Tuesday night in Detroit offered two different pitchers on two teams on opposite ends of the success cycle. It was an intriguing matchup for baseball fans and a game that had relevancy for fantasy owners, too.

The Tigers, who came into the contest with a two-game lead over the White Sox in the AL Central, started Jarrod Washburn, a trade deadline acquisition from the Mariners. Washburn, a veteran lefty, is enjoying one of the finest seasons of his career. His 2.64 ERA was the lowest mark of his 12-year career, one that he posted thanks to a career-best 1.068 WHIP.

The Orioles, languishing in last place and under .500 for the 12th consecutive season since cutting ties with Davey Johnson, started Brian Matusz, the team’s first-round draft pick in 2008, who was making his major league debut. While Washburn has one of the slowest average fastball velocities in the majors, Matusz came in with a reputation as a fireballer, a pitcher capable of reaching the mid-90s with his fastball.

Both pitchers seemed to be the right choice for their clubs. Detroit, in the thick of a pennant race, needed a reliable veteran to come in and help stabilize its pitching staff. Baltimore, going nowhere in the AL East, needed to find out about its hot-shot youngster, one who dominated two levels of the minors this season.

But should fantasy owners treat these pitchers the same way that major league clubs did? Should the contender always go with Washburn, while the teams bringing up the rear just focus on the upside potential of the rookie?

A look at the raw stats of Washburn would intrigue any fantasy owner. He came into Tuesday with 8 W, 2.64 ERA, 1.068 WHIP and 79 Ks. But a deeper look into his numbers revealed a pitcher exceeding expectations. Washburn had a .249 BABIP and a 79.5 percent strand rate while with the Mariners. His FIP checked in at 3.76, more than a run higher than his ERA and his xFIP would have been even worse due to his below average HR/FB rate.

To make matters worse, Washburn was moving from a pitcher’s park in Safeco Field to a more hitter-friendly home stadium in Comerica Park. When it first opened, Comerica had a reputation as a good pitcher’s park. However in recent years it has played differently. Baseball-Reference.com gave it a a multi-year factor of 102 (97 for Safeco) and StatCorner gave it a 97.3 for runs (95.1 for Safeco).

Lifetime, Washburn had a 3.91 ERA at Safeco (66 starts) compared to a 5.33 ERA (eight starts) at Comerica. This year was no different, as Washburn was 5- 2 with a 2.31 ERA in Safeco. His numbers in Detroit can be dismissed somewhat as a sample size issue but there is no question that his numbers in Seattle were slightly better than his career ERA of 4.04. In his eight seasons with the Angels, Washburn had an overall ERA of 3.93 but his lifetime ERA in Anaheim is 4.60, suggesting that Washburn was not able to simply take advantage of his home park.

The first outing for our two pitchers with their new clubs was not a good omen for Washburn owners. He allowed six runs in 5.1 innings, including two homers, in his first home start for the Tigers. Meanwhile, Matusz was everything for which owners could have hoped. He struck out five batters in five innings, allowed just one run and picked up the win.

PitchFX showed that Matusz averaged 92.07 with his four-seam fastball and had a max velocity of 93.8 on his 52 offerings. He threw 16 change-ups, with an average speed of almost 10 miles per hour slower than his fastball. Matusz also displayed a slider, curve and two-seam fastball. And most impressively, Matsuz threw strikes with each of his pitches, with only 34 balls in 99 pitches. All five of his pitches Matusz had a strike percentage of 50 percent or greater.

It is always dangerous to read too much into one outing. But Tuesday night fantasy owners saw just what a look at the scouting reports and numbers said about each of these pitchers. The scouting reports said Matusz could bring the heat and he did exactly that. And a look at Washburn’s numbers showed a pitcher succeeding to a large degree by luck (BABIP, LOB%) and circumstances (Safeco).

While the Tigers acquired Washburn for their pennant drive, fantasy owners contending for a money spot in their league should do the exact opposite. And while it is a risky move to have a rookie pitcher in your rotation in August and September, contenders might want to consider starting Matusz on a matchup basis as they drive towards a title.

Here is the latest update to Week 18 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – Lester
MIL – Gallardo
DET – Washburn
NYY – Pettitte
STL – Pineiro
BAL – Matusz
CLE – Huff

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

NYY – Chamberlain
BOS – Penny
TEX – Feldman
BAL – Bergesen
DET – French
CLE – Laffey

Lester had a string of six straight Quality Starts snapped in his last outing July 30th versus the A’s, when he gave up 4 ER in 5.2 IP in a no-decision. He has two road starts this week with games at Tampa and at New York. So far in 2009 Lester’s ERA is 4.52 in road games, compared to 3.33 in Fenway Park.

Gallardo has reeled off back-to-back wins after being saddled with a loss in three straight appearances. In his last outing, Gallardo fanned 11 batters and allowed just one walk in seven innings versus the Nationals. The solo walk was an encouraging sign for Gallardo, who has allowed a career-high 4.27 BB/9 this season.

Washburn makes his first starts for his new team this week and fantasy owners are eager to find out if his good fortune this season follows him to Detroit. Washburn has a .249 BABIP and a 79.5 percent strand rate this season. His FIP checks in at 3.76, more than a run higher than his 2.64 ERA. Washburn has a lifetime 5.33 ERA in Comerica Park, where he will make both starts this week.

Pettitte seeks to snap a three-game losing streak this week. The Yankees lefthander has not won since July 1st, a stretch that covers five games. In that span he has a 5.34 ERA. After starting the season with a 5-1 record, Pettitte has a 3-5 mark with a 4.92 ERA over his past 11 starts and has allowed eight HRs in 64 IP.

Pineiro picked up four losses in June despite a 2.65 ERA for the month. So in July he posted a 1.22 ERA and went 3-0 in five starts. Pineiro is continuing to serve up grounders, as 61 percent of his batted balls are beat into the ground. His GB/FB ratio of 2.70 easily leads the majors and he has the lowest HR/FB mark (3.0%) of all qualified pitchers.

Matusz is scheduled to make his major league debut this week subbing for the injured Bergesen. The 6’5 LHP was a combined 11-2 this season between two levels, including 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA at Double-A Bowie. The fourth overall pick in the 2008 Draft, Matusz has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s and he fanned 120 batters in 112 innings in the minors.

Huff has a 6.39 ERA but has received an average run support of 6.05 runs per game, which explains how he sits at 5-5 after 14 games. But with a 1.58 WHIP and a K/9 ratio of 4.62 Huff is not a good fantasy pitcher regardless of how much run support he receives.