Archive for Brewers

Bullpen Report: May 28, 2019

Why do bullpens matter? It’s a question worth pondering, especially for Max Scherzer owners. Scherzer’s recorded nine quality starts this year and the Nationals own a 2-10 record in his starts. He left with a one run lead after six innings and 103 pitches. Tanner Rainey walked the lead-off hitter, Miguel Rojas, never a great start for a reliever. A sacrifice bunt, fielding error, then a lineout by Curtis Granderson moved Rojas to third. He scored on a groundout resulting in an unearned run, but Scherzer’s lead evaporated. Basically, a microcosm of frustrated Scherzer owners and Nationals fans alike. Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: May 7, 2019

Fantasy owners expect a blown save on occasion, it’s an occupational hazard. However, Pedro Strop did not record an out on Monday night handing out three walks and a hit leading to three earned runs and his second loss. Strop walked more batters in this outing than his previous 10.2 innings this year. Of course, Strop did not benefit from Kyle Ryan freezing during a rundown letting in a precious insurance run for the Marlins. Chalking this up to one of those nights. Strop’s ERA jumped to 5.06 as a result but his 3.88 xFIP and 1.13 WHIP do not suggest a collapse. Especially with Brandon Morrow still sidelined. Brad Brach and Carl Edwards Jr. each recorded their first hold leading up to Strop for the Cubs. Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: May 4, 2019

May the fourth be with you, and the force be strong in the unyielding chase for saves. During a game with twists and turns in the win probabilities, the Giants outlasted the Reds despite trailing by eight runs at the end of the third inning. Raisel Iglesias incurred his second blown save giving up a game tying home run to Stephen Vogt in the top of the ninth inning. It’s been a tumultuous season for Iglesias, who seemed to be turning the corner of late, but he’s been asked to record more than three outs in three of his last four outings and five times of his 14 outings this season.

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Bullpen Report: April 22, 2019

By now, we have all become aware of the home run explosion that’s occurred in the early weeks and the appearance of a juiced ball. High-leverage relievers have not been immune to the deluge of dingers. Josh Hader, Matt Barnes and Kenley Jansen all allowed home runs on Sunday that led to a loss or a blown save. The three normally-reliable relievers have teamed up to allow seven home runs over their last 8.1 innings combined. Hader has allowed homers in each of his last three appearances, Barnes has allowed one in each of his last two outings, and Jansen has given up two homers over his last three appearances.

Despite the rash of long balls, it’s far too soon to be concerned about any of the three. Hader is still missing bats at a stratospheric rate, sporting a 22.8 percent SwStr%. However, his flyball rate of 72.2 percent is even more otherworldly. It’s nearly double the major league average of 36.7 percent. Not only is Hader letting the ball get lofted, but hitters are making a lot of hard contact on those airborne balls, averaging 97.4 mph in exit velocity (per Baseball Savant). As he accumulates more innings, this could become a real problem barring some serious regression, even with his healthy whiff rate.
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Bullpen Report: The First One of 2019

Welcome to the 2019 RotoGraphs Bullpen Report!

As in past seasons, we will update and publish our team-by-team bullpen grid on a daily basis and provide analysis on relievers to pick up, drop or monitor. I’m unveiling the first iteration of the grid just below, and then we will begin our daily updates beginning next Friday.

With a week to go until Opening Day, Part 2, one-third of the closer situations are still very much in flux. For each of those 10 teams, I have denoted the relievers in the grid as being part of a committee. With the possible exception of the Giants, Diamondbacks and White Sox, a committee is a probable outcome for these teams once the season gets under way.
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Bonus Predictions: Shane Bieber and Orlando Arcia

I did not pack quite enough boldness into my Bold Predictions column, so I am branching out into a second column. This time around, I’ve got fewer predictions but I’m going more in-depth for these final ones.

I could just go with the short versions for my final two predictions: I’m not a Belieber, and it could be a new dawn for Orlando Arcia. But I’ll explain why I’m bearish on a top 40 starting pitcher in ADP but intrigued by a shortstop being drafted outside the top 400.
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Which Statcast Measures Correlate Best with Pitcher HR/FB and BABIP?

Note: As was the case in a previous analysis of Statcast measures and their correlation with power metrics for hitters, I owe a debt of gratitude to Alex Chamberlain. He did a lot of heavy lifting for this column, running the correlations and discussing interpretations with me.

It won’t be the first or last time, but I did a silly thing on Twitter. In announcing a pick for the Pitcher List Experts Mock, I decided to tout the player I chose by citing one of his achievements, as captured by a Statcast metric.

(Justin, by the way, made his pick very promptly.)
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Breakout Breakdown: Jeremy Jeffress

An extraordinarily deep and effective bullpen was a key part of the Brewers’ run to the NLCS and coming within a win of going to the World Series. While they got just 20.1 innings from their starting pitchers in their series against the Dodgers, Josh Hader and Corey Knebel each tossed at least seven innings apiece, allowing a combined one run between them.

Jeremy Jeffress was as much a part of that vaunted bullpen throughout the regular season, but he faltered in both the NLCS and the NLDS against the Rockies. Despite collecting 11 strikeouts in eight postseason innings, Jeffress allowed six runs on 16 hits (including two home runs) and four walks.
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Bullpen Report: September 22, 2018

Although most of the focus within this column caters to the saves chasers, with just over a week remaining in the season, teams will need to protect ratios as well. Owners of Josh Hader realize this through the value he provides in strikeouts and his ERA which dropped below two last night along with his 0.74 WHIP in 77 innings this season. Hader’s been a heater but his consecutive strikeout streak ended on Friday when Colin Moran lifted a pop fly to left field caught by Christian Yelich. However, Hader recorded 16 straight outs via strikeout over five outings to set a major league record. He also set a record for all southpaw relievers for strikeouts in a season with 136 so far with a chance to add to this in Milwaukee’s last eight contests. In September, Hader’s registered a strikeout minus walk percentage of 60, produced a 24.2 swinging strike percentage and allowed only 54.4 contact through 10 innings with a ridiculous 23:2 K:BB with a 0.50 WHIP. A different southpaw remains on the waiver wire in many leagues due to his lack of saves production, but Taylor Rogers extended his scoreless streak to 23.1 innings in Oakland last night. Since July 30th, spanning 25 games, Rogers has faced 80 hitters giving up only nine hits and three walks with 27 strikeouts. Yes, saves matter, but so do southpaws like these two who can ratio erasers to preserve spots in the standings. Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: September 13, 2018

With Hurricane Florence nearing landfall, please be safe if in its path. Bullpens continue to be volatile as the season approaches the final 16 games for most teams. Some good news regarding the return of injured relievers Aroldis Chapman and Brandon Morrow could cheer up their owners, but in varying degrees. Chapman threw an encouraging side session according to reports detailed in this article by Bryan Hoch. With the Yankees heading home, Chapman will meet the team to throw another side session and the simulated game hoping to return to action next week. This would allow the Yankees to reset their bullpen hierarchy and return Dellin Betances to the eighth inning where he dominates. Stay tuned. As for Morrow, he threw 35 pitches in a bullpen session and details it in this video courtesy of Jessie Rogers. Given the delay in Morrow’s return along with how well Pedro Strop’s pitched, there’s no guarantee Morrow would return to the ninth inning if he makes it back.

One day after recording his first major league save, Yoshihisa Hirano allowed a two-run walk-off home run to D.J. LeMahieu. Baseball’s an unforgiving game. This snapped Hirano’s eight game scoreless streak and became the first earned runs he’s yielded since August 21st. On a positive note, it seems as though Hirano’s the new preferred option in Arizona’s fluid bullpen, so he should bounce back from this outing. Hirano does not own any glaring splits within his batted ball profile, just the occasional gopher ball which occurred in Colorado last night. He’s working in a setup role, but Brad Ziegler did secure his seventh hold with Arizona last night. Ziegler’s been scoreless his last eight (6.2 innings) and owns a 1.31 ERA his last 20 appearances.

Save number eight for Jose Alvarado in a clean outing with two strikeouts. Alvarado’s given up only one hit his last 12 games (9.2 innings) with 16 strikeouts versus only three walks. In the second half, Alvarado’s worked 20.2 innings with a 1.30 ERA and has a 1.14 ERA over his last 37 contests dating back to June 12th. While our chart will still consider this a committee, Sergio Romo’s only pitched once over the last 15 games for Tampa Bay. It’s probably too late to handcuff Romo with Alvarado, but keeper league owners and those preparing for drafts next season should not ignore Alvarado’s recent surge in performance.

Not akin, but worth noting, Atlanta used Jonny Venters for the save on Wednesday despite A.J. Minter’s last outing being on Monday. Minter’s been battling back soreness and may not have been available, so his owners should track this closely. As for Venters, he remains one of the best comeback stories of 2018 notching his third save of the year, and second since joining the Braves with a 1.66 ERA in 20 games. Dan Winkler garnered the win in relief walking one and striking out one.

After intimating a committee in Minnesota following the Fernando Rodney trade, it’s been Trevor Hildenberger working as the primary closing option. Hildenberger notched his sixth save last night giving up a hit and striking out during a 1.1 inning appearance. He’s been scoreless his last seven games and converted six straight save chances. Teammate Taylor Rogers struck out the only batter he faced extending his scoreless streak to 19.2 innings spanning 18 games. During his streak, Rogers has seven holds, two saves and 18 strikeouts.

Former Twins reliever, Ryan Pressly, recorded his first save with Houston firing a clean ninth inning with a strikeout. Flying below the radar due to Roberto Osuna’s arrival, Pressly’s been scoreless his last 15 outings with a win, seven holds and this save in them. As an Astro, Pressly owns an impressive 0.96 ERA, 1.50 FIP, 0.54 WHIP, 25:1 K:BB, 59 percent ground ball rate, a swinging strike percentage of 16.9 and 64.1 percent contact allowed. If anything were to happen with Osuna in the future, keep Pressly in the memory bank.

In a pivotal match-up with the Cubs, the Brewers bullpen thrived on Wednesday night. Corey Knebel allowed his first hit since his recall on September second but struck out two in 1.1 innings of work. Knebel’s retired 20 of 21 hitters faced over his last six outings with 12 strikeouts. Josh Hader did yield a hit while striking out the side. He faced 10 hitters in three innings in Chicago with nine strikeouts and raised his season total to 130 strikeouts in 74.2 innings. For perspective, Jake Arrieta has 127 strikeouts in 159.2 innings this year. Jeremy Jeffress did not get a save chance when Milwaukee added to its lead in the ninth inning, but he did throw a clean ninth with a strikeout as he remains entrenched as the primary closer in a surging bullpen.

Quick Hits: A return to action for Kenley Jansen, a clean inning with a strikeout. It’s been a week since he pitched in a live game and has been scoreless his last five appearances with six strikeouts.

A much needed scoreless outing by Shane Greene with only a walk against him. Greene’s struggled of late giving up runs in three of his last five contests.

Felipe Vazquez held on for his 22nd consecutive save, and 32nd of the season, allowing three hits, an earned run and striking out two in St. Louis. Vazquez now owns the longest save streak in the National League this year, breaking a tie with Jansen, and owns a 1.36 ERA over his last 39.2 innings with 56 strikeouts.

Once again, a non-save appearance for Will Smith and he yielded two hits and an earned run to take the loss. This snaps a four game scoreless streak for Smith who lacks a save in September.

Save number nine for Kirby Yates despite giving up two hits, including a home run, with a strikeout. Yates has converted nine of 10 save chances since the Brad Hand trade, including his last four in a row. Hopefully he will be able to mitigate the gopher ball which plagued him in late August.

While Boston continues to audition pitchers for the eighth inning, Craig Kimbrel’s rounding into form. Kimbrel notched his 39th save and has only allowed one hit over his last eight appearances (31 total batters faced). He’s only given up one run over his last nine games and struck out 25 in his last 13 appearances.

Benefiting from Hirano’s walk-off home run, Wade Davis won his third decision of the year throwing a clean ninth inning with two strikeouts. Davis has only yielded one earned run his last 12 games on five hits and two walks with 17 strikeouts.

Still no clarity in the White Sox bullpen but, Hector Santiago recorded his second save in extra innings. Juan Minaya gets his second win working two innings giving up a hit and a walk with two strikeouts. Ian Hamilton pitched a clean eighth inning and Jace Fry struck out two in the ninth. It seems like they prefer Minaya’s ability to work multiple innings, so hone in on the Hamilton to Fry bridge but nothing’s guaranteed with this bullpen.

Not Very Stable
Hot Seat
Committee