This is part of an ongoing pro/con series on RotoGraphs over the next couple of weeks. Today we’ll look at the positive/negative side of Carlos Santana. Expect the opposite side shortly.
Carlos Santana, Carlos Santana, Carlos Santana! How come every time I write an article about catchers, some fool comes in here and brings up Carlos Santana? Read the rest of this entry »
There’s really no need to be embarrassed. It’s a very common problem. In fact, I hear that it happens to a lot of fantasy owners. I, myself, have been known to experience it from time to time. No, no…I’m not just saying it to make you feel better. It happens to everyone. Believe it or not, even to girls. Read the rest of this entry »
In all honesty, virtually all of the legitimate talent has likely already been plucked from your league’s waiver wire by now. Everyone gets so transaction crazy early on, that it’s hard to believe there are still some stones left unturned. And yet, there always seems to be a player or two that slips through the cracks for a variety of reasons. Here’s a look at two that might interest you… Read the rest of this entry »
What do Angels third baseman Brandon Wood and Marlins left fielder Chris Coghlan have in common? They share the sordid distinction of posting the worst weighted on base averages in their respective leagues (minimum 50 plate appearances). Wood, 25, trails all AL hitters with a .197 wOBA in 81 trips to the plate. The 24 year-old Coghlan, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, brings up the rear in the senior circuit with a .206 wOBA in 96 PA. What’s going on here?
Wood scuffled in a small amount of playing time with the Angels from 2007-2009, batting .192/.222/.313. Pitchers carved him up, as Wood walked just three percent of the time and posted a sub-70 percent contact rate (80-81% MLB average). Still, it seemed premature to write off the Angels’ 2003 first-round pick as a bust. With Chone Figgins Seattle-bound, Wood had a good chance to take over third base. ZiPS, the FANS and CHONE all projected a mild performance for Wood in 2010:
ZiPS: .244/.300/.422, .316 wOBA
FANS: .254/.311/.445, .327 wOBA
CHONE: .246/.309/.453, .330 wOBA
At this point, L.A. and fantasy owners alike would be downright giddy if Wood could come close to those numbers. A .245 BABIP hasn’t helped, but he has been bad by any measure. He’s batting .179/.200/.231, and he’s hacking prodigiously. In posting a 2.5 percent walk rate and whiffing 30.8 percent, Wood has chased 41 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (27% MLB average). The righty batter is down in the count before you can say “Francoeur”: Wood’s 67.9 first pitch strike percentage is slightly more than 10 percentage points above the big league average. Swinging at junk so often, Wood hasn’t made much loud contact. His Isolated Power is .051.
Coghlan, meanwhile, looks at Wood’s ISO with envy. The lefty batter has yet to post an extra base hit this season. That’s right: you have the same ISO as last year’s Rookie of the Year, .000. While he wasn’t a power hitter in ’09, Coghlan posted a .321/.390/.460 triple-slash (.372 wOBA). The projection systems figured that he would regress somewhat this season (his batting average on balls in play was .365), but his bat looked comfortably above average:
ZiPS: .287/.358/.413, .345 wOBA
CHONE: .296/.371/.434, .357 wOBA
FANS: .300/.379/.422, .359 wOBA
Instead, Coghlan is slashing .182/.242/.182. While he isn’t struggling to control the zone as much as Wood, Coghlan’s plate discipline has also been poor.
During his award-winning season, Florida’s ’06 supplemental first-round pick swung at just 20.9 percent of pitches out of the zone, walking 9.4 percent. This season, his O-Swing is up to 34.8 percent and his walk rate is down to 7.3 percent. Coghlan’s K rate has climbed from 15.3% to 27.3%, and his first pitch strike percentage is 62.5% (57.3% in 2009). Considering Coghlan’s showing in 2009 and his history of controlling the zone in the minors (11.8 BB%, 13.1 K%), it’s surprising that he suddenly resembles a raw rookie.
Lunging at pitches that he normally takes, Coghlan has chopped the ball into the ground 52.4 percent this year, up from 47.6 percent in ’09. His BABIP is just .250, but Coghlan has popped the ball up 21.4 percent in 2010, compared to 7.1 percent the previous season (the MLB average is around 11 percent). Those infield flies are near-automatic outs.
Wood has lost just about all of his supporters in fantasy leagues (owned in four percent of Yahoo leagues), while Coghlan has retained some good will from his 2009 campaign (43 percent). For the rest of the season, ZiPS projects a .237/.291/.400 line from Wood (.305 wOBA) and a .275/.345/.391 (.332 wOBA) performance from Coghlan.
It’s hard to recommend Wood at this point, but Coghlan could be a decent buy-low option in deep mixed leagues and NL-only formats. Given his track record, it seems unlikely that he suddenly, permanently forgot how to tell a ball from a strike.
For three years now, Brandon Wood has whacked AAA pitching and waited for an opening at the major league level. With Chone Figgins set to join the Mariners , it appears that Wood finally has a clean shot at winning a job with the Angels.
L.A.’s first-round pick in the 2003 amateur draft, Wood posted promising numbers as a teenager in Rookie Ball and in the Low-A Midwest League. But the 6-3 righty batter really burst onto the prospect scene in 2005, scorching the High-A California League.
The Cal League is known for offensive outbursts, but Wood’s .321/.383/.672 line at Rancho Cucamonga was still eye-popping. He clubbed 43 home runs and posted a .351 ISO, while playing shortstop, no less.
Wood walked in 8.1 percent of his PA, while punching out at a moderate 21.5% clip. Ranking Wood the best prospect in L.A.’s system, Baseball America predicted he would “develop into a perennial all-star infielder at either shortstop or third base.”
Promoted to the AA Texas League in 2006, Wood continued to crush while sticking at shortstop. He authored a .276/.355/.552 triple-slash in 552 PA. Wood’s whiff rate spiked (32.9 K%), though his secondary skills remained elite. He posted a 10.7 BB%, with a .276 ISO.
Since then, Wood has pulverized the Pacific Coast League:
Wood’s AAA numbers, 2007-2009
2007: .272/.338/.497, .224 ISO, 9.3 BB%, 27.5 K%
2008: .296/.375/.595, .299 ISO, 10.2 BB%, 26.3 K%
2009: .293/.353/.557, .264 ISO, 8.5 BB%, 20.7 K%
Wood has oscillated between shortstop and third base in AAA, splitting his time between the positions almost evenly in 2009.
In 1,383 career PA with Salt Lake, Wood owns a .287/.354/.547 line. Salt Lake is another excellent hitting environment. While I can’t find park factors for the 2009 season, this Baseball Think Factory thread shows that Spring Mobile Ballpark (home of the Bees) increased run scoring by six percent and home runs by seven percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2006-2008.
Here are Wood’s Major League Equivalent (MLE) lines from ’07 to ’09, courtesy of Minor League Splits:
2007: .210/.263/.370
2008: .235/.299/.446
2009: .235/.283/.432
Penalizing Wood for hefty punch out rates and the high-octane hitting environment of Salt Lake, those MLE’s don’t paint an especially pretty picture.
From 2007 to 2009, Wood’s playing time with the Angels could best be described as scattered. In 236 trips to the plate, he has batted just .192/.222/.313. He has walked in 3% of his PA, while striking out 33 percent. Wood’s outside-swing percentage is near 37 percent (25% MLB average), with a 68.5% contact rate (80-81% MLB average).
Those numbers are ugly. But let’s not bury the guy for a couple hundred bad PA’s split over a three-year period. Now that third base appears to be his for the taking, what can Wood provide fantasy owners in 2010?
Sean Smith’s CHONE projects a .242/.304/.434 line next season, which equates to a WOBA of about .319. The fans are a bit more optimistic, envisioning a .257/.315/.450 performance (.331 wOBA). Per Baseball Prospectus, Wood’s 2009 line in AAA translates to a .249/.308/.479 MLB triple-slash (.336 wOBA). For comparison, the average MLB third baseman hit .265/.335/.421 in 2009 (.332 wOBA).
Turning 25 in March, Wood doesn’t as a major league star any more. His low contact rate and average plate discipline make it difficult to envision an OBP above the big league average (.333 in 2009).
But don’t write him off as a bust, either. Wood possesses ample pop, and he’s not a total hacker at the plate. Baseball Prospectus’ peak translation for Wood (which attempts to forecast a player’s top performance level in the majors) is .256/.319/.513 (.354 wOBA).
Wood’s star no longer shines brilliantly. However, he’s still capable of being a solid starter in the majors. That may be disappointing to those who hoped for a franchise player, but Wood is worth targeting in A.L.-only and keeper leagues.
Stock Up
Rich Harden, Cubs
Fantasy owners pretty much know what to expect from Harden by this point: transient brilliance, followed by a stint or two on the disabled list. 2009 has been little different (10.56 K/9, 3.77 BB/9), though an inflated homer rate (1.74 HR/9, 16.7 HR/FB%) has put a dent in his ERA, which sits at 4.50. The 27 year-old Canadian has been considerably better than that: his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 3.64. That’s exactly the same as his 2008 figure (when his ERA was slightly over two).
Rich has been on a tear lately, with 32 K’s, 5 walks and 5 runs allowed in 24 innings over his past four starts. Harden is one of those great “what if” pitchers. He crushes hitters with a fastball/changeup combo (he scrapped a plus slider because it caused him discomfort), and just about no one makes contact against him (his 67.9% contact rate is the lowest among starters tossing 90+ frames). If only we knew that he would make his next start…
Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
Some in the Pittsburgh media choose to ignore age, durability, service time and baseball economics, howling at every trade the Pirates make. To hear some tell it, it’s as if Pirates management is Kurtz-like, putting veteran Bucco heads on poles and keeping all the money and ivory for themselves- “The horror! they traded someone I know for someone I don’t!”.
Meanwhile, McCutchen is showing that these purportedly worthless, alien beings received for those beloved vets (sometimes referred to as “prospects”) can actually turn into studs. One of the very few successful remnants of the Dave Littlefield era, McCutchen is a 22 year-old with a shed full of tools. In his rookie campaign, the ’05 first-rounder is more than holding his own (.292/.347/.484, .365 wOBA in 239 PA).
McCutchen’s three-homer outburst on Saturday versus the Nationals is not something that should be expected on a regular basis (he slugged .423 in the minors), but he has some thump in his bat and a decent eye at the plate. Owners will also take note of his outstanding raw speed- McCutchen has swiped 10 bags in 12 tries in the majors, though his work at AAA Indianapolis last season (64.1% success rate) suggests he still needs some work on reading pitchers.
Jeff Niemann, Rays
A 2004 first-round pick out of Rice, Niemann punched out 9.1 batters per nine innings in the minor leagues. However, he whiffed just slightly above five per nine in the majors from April-June. The 6-9 right-hander has picked up the pace since then, with 20 K’s in 26.2 July frames (6.8 K/9) and 7 K’s in 8 IP during his first start of August. Niemann also limited the free passes, with 4 walks in July and none in his first outing this month. In fact, the 26 year-old is pounding the zone more and more as the year goes on:
Niemann’s Zone%, by month (the MLB average is 49.3%)
April: 46.2
May: 51.2
June: 53.2
July: 59.6
Kendry Morales, Angels
Heading into the 2009 season, the Cuban switch-hitter figured to be something of a drag on Los Angeles’ offense. First base is a position where if a player doesn’t mash, they’re a liability. And Morales’ preseason projections looked bleak:
CHONE: .327 wOBA
Oliver: .333
ZiPS: .325
Instead, the 26 year-old has popped 23 home runs, slugged .581 and posted a .383 wOBA. That’s pretty impressive, but believe it or not, that ranks 12th among first baseman. Morales is handling fastballs well (+0.98 runs/100 pitches), but throwing him a curveball has pretty much been the worst idea, ever (+5.13 runs/100).
Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
Jimenez entered the 2009 campaign with plenty going his way. After all, the 25 year-old sat in the mid-90’s with his fastball (and it’s not straight as an arrow), with a pair of nasty breaking pitches and a nice changeup as well. The big question was: could he hit the strike zone more often?
The answer appears to be a resounding “yes.” Jimenez has lowered his walk rate from 4.67 per nine innings in 2008 to 3.38 in ’09, while missing more bats (8.02 K/9, up from 7.79). That’s awfully impressive, when you consider that Ubaldo putting fewer runners on first means fewer chances to K hitters (his percentage of batters punched out is up from 19.8 to 21.1).
Obscene stuff, improved control, and groundball tendencies (52.6 GB%)? What’s not to like?
Stock Down
Jarrod Washburn, Tigers
The newest Tiger has turned in a pretty nice season, as his 2.39 K/BB ratio is the highest mark of his career. But a 2.64 ERA pitcher he is not: Washburn (a flyball, pitch-to-contact lefty residing in friendly Safeco) has benefitted from a .249 BABIP (second-lowest among starters) and his 79.5% strand rate is over five percent above his career figure.
Heading to Detroit, Washburn will still pitch in front of a quality defense (the Tigers place 5th in team UZR), but it would be prudent to expect that shiny ERA to rise at least somewhat. Washburn’s rest-of-season ZiPS ERA comes in at 4.73, which is probably a little on the harsh side. But if you can barter the soon-to-be- 35 year-old southpaw for something substantial, this would be the time to do it. Washburn isn’t bad by any means, but he’s more of a low-four ERA pitcher than the ace that his ERA would indicate.
Brandon Wood, Angels
Wood needs a hug, an off-season trade, or both. The long-time prospect was optioned back to AAA on deadline day, after another big league call-up in which he mostly sipped Gatorade and waited to be sent back to Salt Lake.
In three years and 220 PA of scattershot major league playing time, Wood has posted a 2.8% walk rate, while punching out 31.1% of the time. The righty batter has plenty of pop (he’s hitting .313/.366/.587 at AAA, though Salt Lake is a hitter-friendly venue), but L.A.’s surprisingly adept offense leaves Wood toiling in AAA. His questionable control of the zone leads to some less-than-stellar Major League Equivalencies: according to Minor League Splits, Wood’s 2009 season translates to .253/.294/.462 at the highest level.
Nick Blackburn, Twins
As a pitcher who puts the ball in play as often as anyone (only John Lannan has a lower K rate among starters), Blackburn is subject to the caprices of his defense. That worked out pretty well during the first three months of the season…
BABIP by month
April: .307
May: .273
June: .271
…but July was most unkind to the to the sinker/cutter righty. Blackburn suffered from a .347 BABIP, surrendering 23 runs in 31.1 IP. If you’re expecting ace-like production from Nick, he’ll sorely disappoint you. Blackburn is basically a right-handed Zach Duke, as a strike-tossing starter who will occasionally have a month where more of those squibbers find holes. Unfortunately, the Twins haven’t been particularly adept with the leather (ranking 27th in team UZR).
Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
If Bonifacio is still in your starting lineup, then you’re likely a masochist, in last place, or both. The switch-hitting infielder, formerly of the D-Backs and Nationals, has shown a dizzying propensity to make outs this season. His .275 wOBA “bests” only Jason Kendall and Willy Taveras among qualified batters, but he’ll now have a reduced role in Florida with the club’s acquisition of OBP fiend Nick Johnson.
Jorge Cantu will slide over to third base, with Bonifacio apparently platooning with Chris Coghlan in left field. Cantu has been statuesque at third (-14.5 UZR/150 career), but even with a lead glove, the move improves Florida’s chances. Some quick, back-of-the-napkin math comparing a Cantu 1B/Bonifacio 3B infield to a Johnson 1B/Cantu 3B alignment has the Fish coming out with a 1-1.5 win upgrade over the rest of the season.
Jack Cust, Athletics
Oakland’s DH/”outfielder” has experienced a goofy 2009 season. Long a Three True Outcomes hero, Cust has gradually put the ball in play more often:
2007: 21 BB%, 41.5 K%, 31.7 HR/FB%
2008: 18.8 BB%, 41 K%, 29.7 HR/FB%
2009: 14.5 BB%, 33 K%, 15.2 HR/FB%
Has Jack consciously changed his approach at the plate in order to put the bat on the ball more often? It seems like it. Cust’s Outside-Swing% is up to 19.8%, from 2008’s 15.3% rate. He’s swinging at more pitches within the zone as well (69.4%, compared to 62.8% in ’08), while making contact with 80.6% of those pitches within the zone (71.1% in 2008). Overall, Cust has offered at 43% of pitches seen, well above his 38.3% clip in 2008.
If Jack is trying to shorten his swing and make more contact, he might want to stop. Cust posted a .245 Isolated Power in ’08, but that figure is down to .172 this year. A less-powerful, less TTO-ish Cust has been a league average hitter (.335 wOBA).
Remember when Brandon Wood was a top prospect? Back in 2005, he had a ridiculous 98 extra base hits in the California League, posting a .672 slugging percentage (along with a .323 average and .383 OBP). He added three more extra base hits that season in triple-A, giving him 101 XBHs for the season. Not bad for a 20-year-old shortstop.
In 2006 he hit .276/.355/.552 with 25 homers and 18 steals (and was only caught three times) as a 21-year-old in double-A. Excellent, right? Yet many people chose to focus on his 149 strikeouts in 118 games, and glossed over his otherwise-fantastic season.
Then in 2007 he was promoted to triple-A, where he hit .272/.338/.497 for Salt Lake, a notorious hitter’s park in a notorious hitter’s league. Sure enough, his OPS was 100 points higher at home than on the road. And he struck out 120 times in 111 games. To further complicate things, he struggled mightily in 33 at bats with the big league team, hitting .152/.152/.273 and striking out 12 times.
In 2008 Wood seemingly regained his stroke, posting an impressive .295/.375/.595 line with 31 homers (in just 103 games) in triple-A, although he did strike out 104 times. While his OPS was once again almost 100 points higher at home than on the road, he still managed to post a .913 OPS on the road, and he hit 15 road homers as well.
But he once again disappointed in 150 at bats with at the major league level, hitting .200/.254/.327. However, Wood did stroke five homers and steal four bases, although he also struck out in over 28% of his plate appearances.
There are a few things to keep in mind about Wood. First, and most importantly, he’s only 23 years old. That is still quite young, and there is still plenty of time for him to fix the various flaws in his game.
Secondly, Wood actually had two separate stints with the Angels this season. The first time around, he hit .125/.164/.188 with 1 homer, while striking out in 33% of his plate appearances. The second time, he hit .256/.270/.430 with four homers, while striking out in 25% of his plate appearances. While this isn’t great, it’s a marked improvement.
Finally, Wood was extremely good in triple-A this year. Even though he played in a hitter’s park in a hitter’s league, his Major League Equivalent (MLE) was .235/.316/.436 with 22 homers in 408 at bats. He also stole 6 bases. Obviously, that’s not fantastic, but it’s also not bad, especially for a guy who will qualify at shortstop.
Brandon Wood is still very young, and still has tremendous power potential. He will strike out a lot, and therefore probably won’t hit for a very high batting average. However, he’s likely to qualify at shortstop – and perhaps third base – and should hit a lot of homers – and even steal some bases – if given playing time.
Wood could be an excellent late-round flier, as he has a tremendous amount of upside and will likely be given a chance in the fairly near future.