Archive for Brandon Crawford

I ran the 2016 Steamer projections through Zach Sanders’ Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and compared the results to early ADP data. Below I’ve got a player at each infield position that the Steamer projections think are unlikely to live up to their draft day price.

Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles

Wieters coming off the board as the ninth catcher on average makes little sense. For one, drafters are counting on a big bounce back in health from a now 30-year-old catcher. Wieters has a combined 394 plate appearances in the last two seasons. Staying healthy and getting enough PA to be a relevant fantasy option in shallow mixed leagues will be Wieters’ biggest obstacle this season.

But let’s not forget that he wasn’t that great in his last healthy season in 2013. Per our end of season valuations for that year, Wieters was barely starter-caliber in 12-team mixed leagues. His biggest issue that season was a .235 batting average, which was undoubtedly somewhat affected by some bad luck on balls in play. But since that time Wieters has been striking out more, as his strikeout rate was was a career-high 23.8 percent last year in 282 PA. So even assuming better health and an absence of bad luck on balls in play, Wieters seems unlikely to hit for much average. Steamer has a low-but-reasonable projection for Wieters’ BABIP and a 20.3 percent projected strikeout rate with a projection for his average of .244.

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According to both ESPN’s Player Rater and the Zach Sanders z-score method, Brandon Crawford has been the top fantasy shortstop so far this year. But in today’s post, Crawford is playing the role of Aaron Rodgers in the 2005 NFL Draft. Let’s see how far he falls. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s like deja vu all over again here as I get to discuss the fantasy relevance of Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford during another post-season position wrap-up. For those who weren’t here last season or simply don’t remember, here’s the piece where I opine that Crawford may be an outstanding defensive shortstop, but he offers next to nothing in terms of fantasy contribution and is best left alone come draft day. Well, now here we are one year later and while there was a touch of improvement in some areas, the opinion remains the same. Enjoy the ESPN Web Gems and your local highlights on Comcast Bay Area, but when it comes to fantasy baseball, move along. There’s nothing left to see here.

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Recently I’ve taken a look at early season changes in contact rate and fly ball rate because of Russell Carleton’s research showing we’ve reached the point in the season where the sample for those statistics has become ‘reliable.’ There has been some debate in the comments about what reliable means and how much the small season sample can help us in predicting what a player will do the rest of the season.

I look at it like this. For the statistics that have crossed that reliability threshold,  we can look at the players who have seen the biggest changes in either direction and feel safe that their skill has improved or decreased to some degree. That doesn’t mean regression isn’t coming. It just means that at the end of the year it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a player with an improvement or decline from their career mark in a particular category. Although the improvement or decline at the end of the year is not likely to be as extreme as it is at this point in the season.

Today I want to look at the hitters who have seen the biggest changes in ISO because a fair number of players have now crossed the 160 AB threshhold shown in Carleton’s research. Below are the guys who have seen the biggest increase in ISO. After that, we’ll examine whether some other statistics back up the power surge. And a little bit later we’ll see if we can’t figure out how much regression to expect. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year around this time I was sitting and watching a Royals spring training game and absolutely beaming with sheer delight every time either Eric Hosmer or Lorenzo Cain came to bat. I had just finished drafting in my primary keeper league and after holding over Hosmer from a rookie season of deliciousness, added his teammate to the mix for a reasonable sum of six bid dollars. The two of them were going off last spring. Batting averages consistently over .400, home runs, stolen bases, Hosmer was working in the outfield ready to add dual-eligibility to his resume and it was fixin’ to be one helluva season. But then the season opened and….well….you know. Cain got hurt and hit the DL within the first week and Hosmer went from super-stud to super-dud in a matter of minutes. Obviously you can’t predict injuries, but there were some warning signs with Hosmer that I guess I chose to overlook given the way he was playing at the time. So with that, I decided to look at some of the hot springs that may entice you to draft, but should probably be left alone for the season. Read the rest of this entry »

As we make our way through Zach Sanders’ Shortstop End of Season Rankings, we are as obligated to steer you away from drafting some players as much as we are to recommend drafting others. Scrolling down the list, you’ll notice at number 30, we have World Series champion and recent Wilson Defensive Player of the Year Award winner Brandon Crawford with a -$7 value. He is, essentially, picking up the rear at the position. While newbies to the fantasy game and perhaps a few Bay Area homers could potentially get caught up in the World Series hype and wait so long on the shortstop/middle infield position that they happily settle for Crawford, it is our responsibility to tell you to snap out of it and get your head right if you want to win. Brandon Crawford ain’t winning you no fantasy championships. Read the rest of this entry »