Archive for Brandon Beachy

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 3.

Brandon Beachy – With 17 Ks in 17.1 IP, you could make a case for starting Beachy on strikeouts alone. Unfortunately, the other categories come into play. Beachy has yet to break into the win column and his ERA and WHIP took it on the chin Thursday night against the Marlins. This week Beachy has two tough road matchups against Kuroda and Lincecum and all signs point to leaving him on the bench this week.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – The good news is that Matsuzaka’s xFIP is half of what his ERA is. The bad news is he has a 6.56 xFIP. This week he gets to face the slugging Blue Jays and then a cross country road trip to take on the Angels. It may be worthwhile to hang onto him for a few more starts to see if he can put it back together, but by all means let him figure things out while he sits on your bench.

Carl Pavano – After getting rocked in his first start, Pavano has put up back-to-back strong outings, allowing just 1 ER and 8 H over 16 IP. He surrendered three gopher balls in his first game but has kept the ball in the park since then. Pavano’s peripherals are worse than his ERA, due mainly to that first outing. A 17-game winner last year, make sure he is in your lineup this week

Jason Vargas – Last year Vargas shocked everyone by winning nine games and putting up a sub-4.00 ERA. Seven of his nine wins came at home, where his ERA was a full two runs lower than his road mark. Vargas got knocked around in his first home start this year, but last time out in Safeco he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 IP. He has two home starts this week and as he’s likely on the waiver wire in your league, he makes an excellent streaming option.

Carlos Zambrano – Another pitcher with two home starts is Zambrano. But unlike Vargas, Zambrano has not shown an extreme preference for pitching in his home park. In fact, Zambrano has a much higher road winning percentage in his career (.676 vs .544). But the reason to start Zambrano this week is his opponents. He faces off against the Padres and Dodgers, two of the weaker offensive teams in the National League. While Zambrano has not pitched particularly well this year, the Cubs offense has provided him with lots of support, as he has two wins despite a 6.11 ERA.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 3 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Johnson, Lincecum, Marcum, Price, T. Hudson, Danks, B. Anderson, Romero, E. Jackson, Liriano, Scherzer, Kuroda, E. Santana, Shields, Lilly, Lewis, T. Wood, Pavano, Lackey, Carmona, Niese, Stauffer, Correia, Jimenez, Tillman, Chen, Fister, Lannan, Arrieta, LeCure, Galarraga, Moseley, Davies, Palmer.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

If you are in H2H championships right now, you are probably thinking of streaming or already knee deep in probable starters as we speak. Here’s a quick run-down of the more interesting starters by day for the final weekend. Good luck!

Friday
Mark Rogers is starting against the Reds and if you need strikeouts and strikeouts alone, he’s an interesting name. He missed all of 2007 and 2008 with labrum surgeries (torn!) and yet he’s got his velocity back up to 94/95 MPH and has shown his characteristic strikeout punch again (10.06 K/9 in his minor league career). Then again, Rogers has control problems (5.67 BB/9 career in minor leagues), to put it mildly. He also saw a reduced strikeout rate (about one per inning) after the surgeries. In more shallow leagues, the strikeouts-and-strikeouts alone option is Bud Norris, but that’s living on the edge, too, despite his nice FIP (4.16).

PIcking up Pat Misch might be a misch-take but at least he doesn’t walk people (0.93 BB/9 this year, 2.53 career), and is keeping the ball on the ground this year (51.8%). The Washington lineup will also be without Ryan Zimmerman, so he’ll have less opposition. He’s probably the safest streamer Friday. Jordan Zimmermann is also safer than Rogers (most starters are), and offers more strikeout ability than Misch, but he’s been limited to about five innings per start, so his ability to get you a “W” has been adversely affected.

The Kyle Kendrick / Brandon Beachy tilt is probably best to be avoided, given Kendrick’s FIP (4.91) and Beachy’s lack of experience and the stress of the moment. If you’re going to take the dive on one of the two, try Beachy, who has always shown great control in the minor leagues (2.12 BB/9), and added strikeout punch as he advanced.

Saturday
Saturday is actually a rough day for streamers, with a lot of established pitchers taking their final turns. Chris Capuano has been pitching decently and should be fresh, but his career numbers (4.34 ERA / 1.35 WHIP) were accrued in over 700 innings and shouldn’t be ignored. He’s pretty vanilla and only struck out one dude in his last start. His opponent, Homer Bailey, offers much more in the way of strikeout ability and risk. But Bailey’s only given up more than four runs once in his past ten appearances, so maybe he’s not as risky as we think. He’s pitching as a post-season audition and has a 3.89 FIP, he’s a decent spot starter.

Tim Stauffer is flying off the shelves (14% owned now), and for good reason. He’s got a great final matchup against the Giants, and has finally regained that groundball-inducing stuff (53.7%) that made him interesting before the injuries. His FIP (2.84) and opponent makes him the best spot starter of the day. Wade Davis is also an interesting name for the day, as he has a good matchup (the Royals) and has been pitching better since the half-way mark (3.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9).

Joe Saunders and Alex Sanabia both have nice matchups (the Dodgers in LA and the Pirates in Florida, respectively), and they limit the walks (2.93 and 1.99 BB/9), but both have poor strikeout rates (5 and 5.85 K/9), so they are better options for those looking to protect ratios than those looking for the K.

Sunday
A little tip for roto players looking to get the most out of their innings limits. On Yahoo, the innings limits are enforced at the end of the day. So if you have one inning going into the final day, you can throw as many arms as you like that day and receive credit for all of them. It may not be in the spirit of the rule, but it is in the rules, and winning eases all pains. If you have little to lose in regards to your ratios, you might as well throw everyone you can that day.

That said, it’s not a great day for streaming. The shallow league prize is probably Ted Lilly, who has a nice matchup against the K-happy Diamondbacks in Los Angeles, but he’s owned in 62% of leagues and you’d have to get lucky to find him on your wire. Mike Pelfrey seems streaky and is in the midst of a decent stretch (only two starts of 3+ runs allowed in his last ten) and he gets the scrubs the Nationals want to run out on their final day in a decent matchup. He’s available about half the time, too. Randy Wolf would be a better matchup if he weren’t a flyballer going into Cincinnati, but he’s been strong this second half at least (3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and is a known quantity.

The deep league prize is probably Marc “Scrabble” Rzepczynski, who is once again striking out over eight per nine (8.1 K/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (51.7%). His walks are once again a little too high, though (4.45 BB/9 this year, 4.42 career), so as his FIP shows (4.87), he’s not without risk. Then again, it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will risk too many of their regulars on the last day, and Scrabble is coming off of a string of good starts, including his last, a gem against the Yankees. I’d rather use him than his opponent Nick Blackburn, as his groundball-inducing repertoire will be going up against a slew of Jays trying to pad career-high homer totals. Strength on strength, I’m not betting against Jose Bautista et al, at least not this year.

Otherwise, it’s a tough day. Had Brad Bergesen not blown up against the Rays, he might look like a decent start against the weaker Tigers offense, but there is that five-run start looking up at you from his game log (as well as his poor strikeout numbers (4.25 K/9) and well-deserved FIP (5.20)). Brian Burres gets an okay matchup in Florida, but he’s not a good pitcher (5.01 K/9, 4.89 FIP). If you are scraping the bottom of this barrel, you’d be better off trying Esmil Rogers, who gets to pitch in St. Louis and has shown the ability to keep the ball on the ground (50.7% career GB) and garner the strikeout (8.47 K/9 this year). Call Rogers the surprise at the bottom of the cracker jacks.