Archive for bobby parnell

This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.

Closer/Setup Men:

Fishing for a closer?

Draft Jenrry Mejia and you may feel like doing this:

Jenrry Mejia. So pumped. pic.twitter.com/iy8HR5yrZu

— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) July 26, 2014

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There are a sundry of middle/set-up relievers that can succeed in the closer role if given the opportunity. A few obvious: Wade Davis if something happens to Greg Holland… Wil Myers for James Shields and who?!; Ken Giles if the Phillies can somehow find a trade partner for the grundle-grabber; and Brad Boxberger if not Jake McGee. I assume David Robertson signs elsewhere and Dellin Betances steps in.

Lets’ look at potential closers using reliever outcomes. Here are the average contact and balls in play-related outcomes for all relievers that qualified and specifically relievers with 10+ saves:

Our Filters: 

• Contact-related outcomes: For K-BB%, Ct% and SwStr%, I filtered simply by the general relief pitcher averages. Everyone below average in these 3 categories was filtered out.
• Command-related outcomes: For zone% and first-pitch-strike%, I used 1 standard deviation below average and 1.25 SD’s below average in BABIP as filters. 1.25 SD allowed me to omit only the relievers that had career BABIP’s higher than we would like to see for a closer or in general. I didn’t want to screen out Jenrry Mejia (1.24 SD below the mean) or Tim Stauffer (1.19 SD below), because there’s a possibility for BABIP regression.
• Balls In Play-related outcomes: I was lax on the balls in play outcomes. I went with a 40% Grounder rate and 45% Flyball rate as my filters versus the averages that you see above because below average fly-rates don’t mean much in places like Tampa (where Boxberger is elite but below average in fly-rates); and above average grounder-rates don’t mean as much with atrocious defense behind you (hence Corey Kluber’s unlucky BABIP, which should have been closer to .299 per end-of-season xBABIP/Inside Edge data), but I digress.

Using these filters, we’re left with a robust list of above-average relievers beyond just closers (scroll down for the noted filters):

What happens if we use the command (K-BB%)/contact (Ct% and SwStr%) related averages for relievers with more than 10 saves this year? 

…We’re left with some elite closers and then a few interesting names.

Last year, Danny Farquhar (just missed the list this year) had a top 20 swinging-strike rate – about a percent better than Fernando Rodney, but it was masked by his BABIP and left-on-base rate that killed his surface stats (4.20 ERA vs. 2.40 xFIP). This year, he actually outperformed his xFIP with a 2.66 ERA. After an early season MASH Report on Rodney’s velocity, I eyed Farquhar. At least keep him in mind next year if anything does happen to Rodney.

Josh Edgin (Mets for those of you that don’t know) has a top 65 contact-rate sandwiched between Mark Melancon and Jake McGee and even induced grounders 50% of the time. He has a pretty extensive repertoire as well. In order of usage: Fourseamer, Slider, Curve, Change, Cutter and Sinker. According to his Brooks Player Card, he has great swing and miss rates on his Curve (>56%), Cutter (50%), Slider (>42%) and Sinker (33%). Even his Change approaches 30%. This isn’t the case on his Fastball, but at 93+ MPH, it induces a decent amount of grounders (1.8 GB/FB). Keep in mind he had late-season elbow issues which effected his velocity by a MPH or so, but he could be called upon to get Mejia out of a jam. I like him better than an unhealthy Bobby Parnell and Jeurys Familia from a command perspective for another year.

Zach Duke did his best Craig Kimbrel impression prior to the R2M monster hitting him in August. Prior to 8/1, Duke had a 34.9% K-rate and 27.3 K-BB%. Kimbrel ended the year with a 38.9% K-rate and 28.3 K-BB%. I think August and September brought him back to his realistic value (~2.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). It will be interesting to see who closes for the Brewers if they let Francisco Rodriguez go. Both Duke and Will Smith have above average (even for RP w/ 10+ saves) swing-and-miss. Will Smith should have additional command next year, but Zack Duke induces grounders better which I like in my closers/in Milwaukee. They also have Jonathan Broxton. The hierarchy seemed to be K-rod-Broxton-Smith late last season. If that’s the case, they should use Duke more (former starter) and in higher leverage situations. He was equally solid against both lefties (.258 wOBA) and righties (.262 wOBA).

Oliver Perez everybody! I thought I could filter him out by his splits being a lefty, but like 2012, he was more effective vs. righties (and faced 44 more of them). The D-backs have Addison Reed, up-and-comer Evan Marshall as well as Daniel Hudson caught touching 97 MPH so if not by outcomes or splits, we can filter Perez out by opportunity.

Darren O’Day and Andrew Miller is part of one dominating Baltimore bullpen – one that gets referenced by anyone who thinks the Orioles can beat the Tigers in the ALDS. Notice that Zach Britton didn’t make either of the above lists! He was filtered out by his below average K-BB% (13.70%). It’s his 75+% grounder rate (hence the 81+% left-on-base rate and .215 BABIP) that keeps him elite in Baltimore. The only concern you can have with O’Day is a fastball velocity almost 2 standard deviations below the mean for relievers, but his arm angle combined with that slider still induces a 30+% whiff-rate on both pitches. Miller’s slider though is a world apart from O’Day’s: only Pedro Strop, Will Smith, Jake Diekman, Greg Holland and Oliver Perez induces more whiffs than Miller’s 55% according to Baseball Prospectus’ Pitchf/x Leaderboards.  I doubt we’ll see a closer-transition next year in Baltimore unless Britton’s GB/FB ratio takes a drastic dive because his HR/FB ratio, which approached 18%, could be an issue.

An xBABIP review

On the last day of the season, @jeffwzimmerman provided me with Pitch xBABIP based on inside edge data. Let’s look at some of the bigger xBABIP differentials to keep in mind:

The last column depicts the z-score for BABIP differential. Francisco Rodriguez was expected to have a BABIP about 120 points above his actual BABIP. I highlighted (red/bad; green/good) the xBABIP z-scores as well so that you know whether or not to actually be concerned meaning sure Aaron Sanchez has the 5th biggest BABIP differential (over 2 standard deviations from the mean), but a .239 xBABIP is still utterly elite (3.34 SD’s from the mean). On the other side of the equation, it’s nice to see Evan Marshall, Carlos Martinez and Adam Ottavino (albeit in Colorado) with large BABIP differentials. Marshall and Martinez even have xBABIP’s over .5SD from the mean.

The last bit of fun

It was a very fun year to be doing bullpen reports for RotoGraphs. Aroldis Chapman broke the single-season strikeout rate of 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%). He struck out 52.5% of the hitters he faced. Andrew Miller (42.6%) and Brad Boxberger (42.1%) also made the top 10 seasons ever. Dellin Betances (39.6%), Wade Davis (39.1%) and Craig Kimbrel (38.9%) made the top 20. Chapman’s swinging-strike% of 20% beat ’12 Kimbrel by .8%, but he couldn’t pass ’04 Lidge, ’03 Gagne, ’04 Gagne, ’02 Gagne or ’05 Lidge. Chapman, Miller, Doolittle, Boxberger, Betances (Wade Davis and Kenley Jansen close behind) all had historical, top 20 K-BB rates. Relievers dominate this list: only ’99 Pedro Martinez (#12), ’00 Pedro Martinez (#21), ’01 Randy Johnson (#27) and ’01 Pedro Martinez (#28) make it into the top 30, but it’s clear that we have a growing list of elite relievers.

From a fantasy perspective, thanks to 45+ saves totals out of Holland and Kimbrel, we had two relievers ranked in the top 20 pitchers. If Chapman didn’t miss time and Betances and Davis consumed the closer role, we would have had 3 others. Last year, Craig Kimbrel and his 4 wins, 50 saves, 98 SO’s, 1.21 ERA and .88 WHIP campaign made him the 3rd most valuable pitcher. This year with Kershaw, Cueto, Felix and Kluber, it would have taken even more.

If we combined the 3 more dominating performances exclusive of saves this year: Aroldis Chapman’s K-rate (52.5%) and saves total (36), Dellin Betances IP (90) – who was dominating in his own right, Wade Davis’ ERA (1.00) and Wins total (9) and Sean Doolittle’s WHIP (.73) – let’s call this guy Aroldellin Dooldavis, we would wind up with a 10.95 z-sum…just above Corey Kluber (10.72), but under Clayton Kershaw (13.74), Johnny Cueto (12.95) and Felix Hernandez (12.50). Even 50 saves wouldn’t have done the trick (12.43 z-sum):

–Tony Watson collected the rare two-inning, six-out save this afternoon in a Pirates 5-3 victory over the Reds. With Bucs closer Jason Grilli and setup man Mark Melancon unavailable out of the pen today, Watson earned a second inning of work en route to his second save of the season. The southpaw dished an impressive eighth-inning, working through the heart of the Reds’ order — Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce — prior to cleaning up the last of Cincy’s bats in the last half of the ninth to seal the deal. While Watson may not earn a ton of saves this season, he’s a valuable asset in holds leagues. The lanky lefty’s ratios aren’t exactly sexy, but he’s notched 11 holds on the season and owns a reasonable 19.7% K% on the year.

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Bobby Parnell notched his ninth save of the year in a 3-1 Mets victory over the Yankees tonight. For the Metropolitans, the win surprisingly sealed a series sweep against their crosstown rivals, providing them with some momentum as they head back into divisional play against the Marlins, Nationals and the Marlins again over the course of the next two weeks. For Parnell, it was his third consecutive save and the third outing in-a-row without surrendering a hit. The lanky right-hander whiffed one-of-three batters this evening, bringing his whiff rate to 25% on the season. The current 25% K% is actually higher than he’s had in the past two seasons — 23.9% and 21.2% respectively — despite missing fewer bats (8.6% SwStr%) than he has over that same time (9.8% SwStr% in ‘11, 10.1% SwStr% in ‘12). The previous data leads me to believe that Parnell’s strikeout rate could continue to rise if his ability to miss bats regresses toward his career 9.6% SwStr%. His recent success parlayed with the news that Frank Francisco was transferred to the 60-day disabled list today with continued elbow issues further proves that Parnell’s grip on the closer’s role in Flushing continues to get stronger.

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Bobby Parnell secured his fourth save of the year as the Mets clipped the Cardinals 4-3 in Saint Louis. Parnell surrendered just one hit — a single to Matt Adams — in the bottom of the ninth frame, and struck out one to seal the victory for the Metropolitans. Parnell is now 4-of-6 on the season in save opportunities with a 1.04 ERA (1.86 FIP) and a 0.73 WHIP. However, owners should monitor his K% — which is up to 26% this season from 21% in ‘12 — despite missing fewer bats (8.4% SwStr% in ‘13, down from 10.1% in ‘12). The foreseeable future seems to favor those with shares of Parnell, considering the (unfortunate) news that Frank Francisco felt soreness in his surgically repaired elbow just as he was meant to return from the disabled list.

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– Craig Kimbrel locked down his 9th save on 10 pitches tonight in a 3-2 Braves victory over the Nationals. The right-hander whiffed just one batter in the top of the ninth-inning resulting in a dip of his K% from 38.9% to 38.5% on the season. Oof. Kimbrel is now 9-of-10 in save opportunities with a 1.69 ERA (1.03 FIP) on the year. But the narrative shouldn’t just be about ninth-inning man here. Fredi Gonazlez summonsed both Jordan Walden and Eric O’Flaherty from the ‘pen prior to calling on the closer. Combined, Walden and O’Flaherty dished 2.2 clean innings while fanning five Nationals. Entering tonight, the Braves bullpen held a 2.18 ERA (2.84 FIP) in 70.1 IP. Not bad.

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Whether it’s a worthwhile strategy or not (and I stand by the fact that it isn’t), numerous fantasy owners tend to ignore closers on draft day. Their decision is either to punt saves outright or to just not invest any auction dollars or draft picks on closers and fish off the waiver wire all year for saves. And why is that? Because when it comes to job security, the number of closers who actually have it is quite small. Not to mention, the rash of injuries we tend to see from year to year. And, of course, their side of the debate gets a little boost here in February as we see three situations involving closers already coming to light. Read the rest of this entry »

Depending on how close a race you are in, whether it’s a roto league or head to head, this is your last-ditch effort to finish on top. If you need strikeouts to scratch out a point, then you load up on potential strikeout pitchers. If you need to add a few ticks to your team OBP, then so long as it isn’t a keeper league, ditch everyone that isn’t contributing and get someone else in there who is. This is obviously nothing new and I’m not offering up some secret advice. I’m just trying to encourage you to keep the fight goign for one more day. Do everything you can and walk away from the season with your head held high. Read the rest of this entry »

• Things were going well in the last month for John Axford, who had saved 15 consecutive games dating back to August 21st, until tonight when Todd Frazier smacked a two-out homerun in the bottom of the ninth to bring the Reds even at 1-1 with the Brewers. Frazier’s long ball was the beginning of the end for Axford and the Crew on Thursday — a subsequent Jay Bruce single and a Dioner Navarro triple resulted in a 2-1 victory for the Reds. The Brewers walked off the field with their heads down knowing their playoff chances may have snuck past them tonight, and no one feels worse than the Brewers’ closer. Axford has now blown nine of his 42 save chances on the year to go with a 4.88 ERA (1.46 WHIP).
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Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Josh Bell – Baltimore Orioles (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

The overall numbers are nothing special but since August 11, Bell has a .333 AVG with 2 HR and 6 RBIs in 10 games. While most of that damage came in just one game, the encouraging thing for Bell is the plate discipline he has showed recently. For the year, he has a 34.6 K% with the Orioles. But in his last 10 games he has 9 Ks in 33 ABs for a more manageable 27.3 K%. Bell should give you power potential with a solid AVG the rest of the way if he can keep the strikeouts under control.

Michael Brantley – Cleveland Indians (owned in 9 percent of Yahoo! leagues)

Another player whose overall numbers mask a recent stretch of productive play. Thanks to a .220 BABIP, Brantley carries a .212 AVG for the year. But in his last 12 games he has hit .327 with 12 R and 7 RBIs. Additionally, he has 2 HR and 2 SB in that stretch since being recalled from the minors. Brantley did sprain his ankle recently, but an MRI came back negative and he will not go on the disabled list.

Bobby Parnell – New York Mets (owned in 5 percent of Yahoo! leagues)

With Francisco Rodriguez done for the year, the closer spot is up for grabs in the Mets bullpen. So far, Hisanori Takahashi and Manny Acosta have notched saves in his absence. But Parnell is another option and could easily pick up a handful of saves the final six weeks of the season. Even if he does not get many saves, Parnell has the opportunity to help fantasy owners with a 9.36 K/9. Always a hard thrower, Parnell has been over 100 mph with his fastball recently. At 3.24, his ERA is higher than you would like from a setup guy as a fantasy player, but both his FIP (1.74) and xFIP (2.28) paint a different picture.