Archive for Bobby Jenks

Two tidbits of news today might mean two new closers – about par for the course at baseball’s most volatile position. Let’s take quick look at the (possible) moves and what they mean.

Chicago White Sox Non-Tender Bobby Jenks
Jenks actually put up the second-best strikeout rate and the second-best groundball rate of his career last year, and though he missed some time with injury, he reversed a mini-trend in his velocity when he showed the third-best fastball velocity of his career. All of this, added to some really poor luck on batted balls (.368 BABIP) and moderately bad luck stranding men on the bases (65.4%), and he had one of those seasons where his overall stats (4.44 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) were out of line with better-looking fielding-independent numbers (2.59 FIP, 2.62 xFIP). Hey, it happens a lot in 50-inning stretches out of the bullpen. In any case, though he’s twice crossed the 2.0 WAR threshold, he probably wouldn’t have been worth the $10 million an arbitration panel may have awarded him, so it made sense for the White Sox to let him go.

Or, it makes sense because they already have a better, cheaper option in place. Matt Thornton may only have one pitch, and he may have had a reputation for blowing saves in the past, but he works that one pitch well, did decently when given save chances this past year (three saves, none blown in September), and only costs $3 million this year. Judging from his three straight years with double-digit strikeout rates and walk rates under three per nine, he should make for a solid buy at closer in 2011 drafts. Only health can keep that fastball from booming.

Jenks should also make a fine buy for a team that isn’t forced to pay him $10 million. Perhaps the Rays would like to look at him as their closer on a short-term, low-money, make-good deal? That would make three new closers possibly minted today.

The Angels Close to Signing Hisanori Takahashi
Given the history of the Angels, this one is far from a lock (the deal’s not even done yet). They’ve run through back-end bullpen options like popcorn at a blockbuster over the past few years, and they still own one of those would-be closers, Fernando Rodney. On top of that, Takahashi can start or relieve, and his overall stats are not so overwhelming that they scream ‘closer.’

But that’s not to say he couldn’t easily end up being a great bargain closer in 2011. For one, the Angels starting staff is full. Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana are locks, Joel Piniero should be fine, and the number five can easily be (under)manned by Scott Kazmir and Trevor Bell. Also, Takahashi’s numbers were much better in relief. In 57.1 relief innings, he had a 9.42 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 2.59 FIP and 3.54 xFIP. Those numbers actually rivaled those of Francisco Rodriguez and led AmazinAvenue to award Takahashi the title of Best Reliever for the past season. So it looks like the Angels want him as a reliever, which is good, since Tak2 hasn’t always been the most durable of pitchers.

Now the question is if the Angel’s management will have Tak2 close over Rodney. Given that the incumbent hasn’t struck out a batter per inning for a couple years now, and hasn’t ever shown a walk rate better than average, the answer should be easy enough. Then again, he has almost seven miles of fastball velocity on Takahashi, and gas has made better men than Mike Scioscia go a little loopy.

Bobby Jenks is out for the rest of the year and the rumors have begun to fly. See ESPN, the Examiner, RotoWorld, MLBTradeRumors, and even Bob Nightengale chime in with their belief Jenks will get traded this offseason.

Entering his second year of arbitration, his steady save totals should augment his $5.6 million salary to the point where he may not be the best use of Kenny Williams’ resources. He was, for example, only worth $1.9 million this year.

His story is also not one of consistency. Generally speaking, he was lucky last year despite poor underlying stats, and this year he’s had the reverse happen. It might just be the story of small sample sizes in the end, but can a team like the White Sox afford a closer that costs more than $7 or $8 million?

Much was made in 2008 of the precipitous decline of Jenks’ strikeout rate. Surely he must be suffering from an arm injury, we all said. No one goes from striking out almost a batter per inning to 5.55 K/9 in one year without something being wrong, right? Especially with his fastball velocity down almost two MPH off its peak. Well, not so much. He got through the year with a sub-3 ERA, perhaps thanks to his career high 57% groundball percentage, and also thanks to a little luck (.261 BABIP).

Fast-forward to this year and the secondary stats all normalized to his career rates (8.27 K/9, 2.70 BB/9), and his fastball regained a mile per hour. Unfortunately, his luck turned too. While his BABIP (.298) stayed the same, his other batted ball statistics went south. The real ‘unlucky’ part of his game concerns home runs. Despite a reasonable fly ball percentage (33.1%), he’s giving up a home run and a half this year thanks to a distorted home run per fly ball rate (17%, 9.6% career).

So now the portly (6’3″ 275 lbs) closer is on the DL with a calf strain and the team will get to audition their possible replacement in Matt Thornton. What can we expect, and does Thornton have the stuff to be the closer in 2010?

Non-traditionalists will look at his numbers and give an unqualified thumbs up to Thornton’s candidacy. 330+ innings into his career, his strikeout rate is good overall (9.37 K/9) and excellent recently (over 10 K/9 the last two years). In his last 134 innings, his walk rate has been under 2.55 BB/9, which is also excellent. He’s actually had two straight identical seasons with great underlying numbers. Sure, his groundball rate took a step back this year, and his flyball rate went in the wrong direction, but can you really argue with two straight FIPs under 3?

He has the fastball of a closer (95+ MPH), a good slider (neutral by linear weights over his career), he gets people to reach (reach% over 25% for the last four years), and they don’t make great contact even when the ball’s in the zone (79.7%). What’s not to like?

Ah, there’s the rub. Thornton has blown 10 saves against two saves in the last two years and for some the thought is that he can’t handle the pressure. Are there actually great relievers that can’t be closers? This may need a more comprehensive look, but as anecdotal evidence I submit to you Heath Bell. Bell had 12 blown saves against his first two saves despite good underlying numbers that don’t even look as nice as Thornton’s do now. Sure, Bell may be slowing down a little recently, but he sort of blew through that blown saves problem this year, wouldn’t you say?

As a member of the Angels organization, right-hander Bobby Jenks was something of a mythological figure. The gargantuan 6-3, 280 pounder, selected in the 5th round of the 2000 amateur draft, often had radar guns begging for mercy as he sat in the upper-90’s and hit triple-digits on occasion. With that hopping heater, Jenks mauled minor league hitters (9.4 K/9), but his control (an astounding 6.01 BB/9) and temperament left much to be desired.

Despite Jenks’ gifts, the Angels eventually grew tired of the flame-thrower’s antics and punted him off the 40-man roster in December of 2004. The White Sox stepped up and claimed the volatile-but-talented arm, and the club has been rewarded handsomely for its leap of faith.

Jenks burst onto the scene during Chicago’s World Series run in 2005, punching out 11.44 batters per nine innings in 39.1 frames. His control (3.43 BB/9) was just fair, but he managed a 2.69 FIP while showing off a 97 MPH fastball as well as two hard breaking balls (an 88 MPH slider and an 83.5 MPH curve).

The portly righty displayed many of the same attributes in 2006. In 69.2 innings, Jenks used a slightly-less searing 95.8 MPH heater and his hard breaking stuff to post rates of 10.33 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. Despite the occasional bouts of wildness, Jenks used his ability to miss bats and a newfound tendency to keep the ball on the ground (his GB% improved from 44.6% in ’05 to 58.8% in ’06) to compile a 3.20 FIP.

After two seasons of dominating hitters and allowing a few too many free passes, Jenks performed like a different sort of hurler in 2007. His K rate fell precipitously, from over 10 K/9 down to 7.75. However, he cut his walk rate by more than half (1.8 BB/9) and continued to burn worms (53.8 GB%). Jenks’ blistering upper-90’s cheese was now sitting in the 94 MPH range. The shape of his production was different, but Jenks posted the best K/BB ratio (4.31) and FIP (2.56) of his career.

2008 continued Bobby’s trend of missing fewer bats. A few short years after posting a double-digit whiff rate, Jenks struck out just 5.55 batters per nine innings, while walking 2.48 per nine. His groundball rate (57.6%) remained quite high and his FIP was still a fair 3.41, but clearly the present version of Jenks is not the same fire-breathing mountain man that was on display in Los Angeles’ farm system or in Chicago during his early days there. Jenks was once fairly difficult to make contact with, but opposing hitters have progressively had an easier time putting the bat on the ball:

Jenks’ Contact Rate, 2005-2008:
2005: 74.5%
2006: 77.8%
2007: 79.1%
2008: 84.5%

Jenks’ 2008 contact rate was one of the highest among all relievers. Residing close to Bobby were names such as Ryan Franklin, Brian Bass and Franquelis Osoria.

Bobby Jenks’ transformation from flame-throwing folklore to finesse pitching has been fascinating to watch. Chicago’s plus-sized closer has remained effective to this point (his 3.47 WPA in ’08 was a career-best), but it would probably be best to tread cautiously here instead of investing a high pick. Jenks could well remain effective with plus control and groundball tendencies, but his descending strikeout rate and back issues bear watching.