This escalated pretty quickly.
Sean Doolittle has a strained toe. Dave Martinez wasn’t sure about his availability today but it seems like a minor issue
— Jamal Collier (@JamalCollier) July 8, 2018
Nats have placed Sean Doolittle on the DL with left toe inflammation. Jefry Rodriguez optioned. Austin Voth and Wander Suero called up.
— Dan Kolko (@masnKolko) July 10, 2018
On a day that featured only eight games on the schedule, the only real closer intrigue took place in Cincinnati. In the first Reds game that provided a save opportunity since Raisel Iglesias (biceps) went on the 10-day disabled list on Wednesday, it looked as if Amir Garrett was primed to record his first career save. The lefty relieved David Hernandez with two outs in the top of the seventh inning and a 5-2 lead against the Pirates. He proceeded to get the next four outs, three of which came by way of strikeout.
Having used only 16 pitches to get those outs, Jim Riggleman brought Garrett out for the ninth inning to finish the game. Corey Dickerson put the first blemish on Garrett’s afternoon, singling on an 0-2 pitch, but then he appeared to get back on track, striking Jose Osuna out on three pitches. Then, with one swing, Garrett’s campaign to get the save took a blow when Austin Meadows turned on a 95 mph fastball that caught the inside of the plate and pulled it for a two-run homer. With the Reds’ lead carved down to one run, Jared Hughes took over and got the final two outs, as well as the save.
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Has the switch been flipped in St. Louis?
On Sunday, Mike Matheny brought Bud Norris in for the eighth inning with a 6-2 lead against the Reds. Greg Holland pitched the ninth, but by that point, the Cardinals had expanded their lead to seven runs. On Tuesday night, Matheny sent a clearer signal that he may be close to re-installing Holland as his closer. He called on Holland to pitch the top of the ninth inning in 5-5 game with the Mets, and he responded with a perfect inning.
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Six of Sunday’s 15 scheduled games were postponed, robbing us of a potential opportunity to see if Arodys Vizcaino could get on track for the Braves or whether Joakim Soria or Nate Jones gets the next save opportunity for the White Sox.
Despite the limited schedule, we got yet another chapter in the Brewers’ bullpen saga. Craig Counsell brought Matt Albers into a 2-2 tie with the Mets in the bottom of the ninth inning, and he got within one out of delivering his team into extra innings. Instead of prolonging the game, Albers allowed Wilmer Flores‘ walk-off solo homer. Despite having pitched only once over the previous four days, Jacob Barnes was nowhere to be found in the seventh and eighth innings, as Counsell chose to set Albers up with Jeremy Jeffress and Dan Jennings. Barnes has apparently pitched his way out of the Brewers’ closer mix.
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If you had been stashing Anthony Swarzak or Ryan Buchter in the hopes that they would inherit some saves, this has not been a good week for you. On Tuesday, the White Sox dealt Swarzak to the Brewers for 25-year-old outfield prospect Ryan Cordell. This came the day after Swarzak teased fantasy owners by notching his first career save, preserving a 3-1 win over the Cubs. Swarzak now figures to inherit a setup role for the Brewers.
On Monday, Buchter joined Padres’ ex-closer Brandon Maurer and Trevor Cahill in getting dealt to the Royals for Matt Strahm, Travis Wood and 18-year-old second baseman Esteury Ruiz. Maurer will likely set up Kelvin Herrera, while Buchter will probably slot into a suddenly star-studded Royals’ pen in a middle relief role. However, their departure from San Diego creates all sorts of new closer possibilities. In the short run, Brad Hand figures to be the frontrunner to get saves (in fact, he got one Wednesday night against the Mets), but he, too, is a candidate to get traded to a team that needs to fortify the backend of its bullpen.
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Tumult and turnover has plagued bullpens far earlier than they did last season. Already, just shy of the four-week mark, we’ve seen closers relieved of duties in Washington and Philadelphia due to poor performance, lost to injury in Los Angeles (AL) and Baltimore, and in Texas, we’ve seen volatility due to some combination of the two. Oakland continues to confound us with a bullpen-by-committee and up and down the closer grid, last year’s elite and upper tier closers struggle.
Here in the Chacon Zone, we search for those widely available middle relievers toiling away in waiver wire obscurity, who may prove more productive than less talented pitchers benefiting from ninth inning opportunity. Luckily for save punters and deep leaguers, there are plenty to discuss.
Projecting future closers is always difficult. We can use a number of different frameworks that factor in environment, talent, pitch quality, and arsenals, and still scratch our heads marveling at how relievers are used. It’s a tricky proposition given the number of variables involved. Add to that the changing nature of bullpen roles, it’s not inconceivable, as we saw with Andrew Miller’s usage, that a progressive manager might not use his best reliever in a way that’s conducive to racking up saves.
In fantasy, saves are expensive and the inherent volatility of bullpens can make chasing them on draft day a dubious endeavor. The Chacon Zone’s goal is to identify non-closing relief aces. Those pitchers whose contributions in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP, despite low innings totals, are significant enough to offset the lack of saves that you’d receive by rostering a closer in his place. By banking on talent, rather than simply opportunity, we can identify cheap relievers not only possessing high floors but also high ceilings should they be thrust into a ninth inning role. Think Edwin Diaz from last year. Luckily for us, the new Splits Leaderboard, provides yet another tool by which we can (attempt to) identify these pitchers. By isolating performance in high leverage situations, we can not only identify talented relievers but those whose managers entrust them in the most pivotal moments.
To stream pitchers is to play with fire, but at this time of year, you may find yourself in a situation in which you have to do it. You may be burned, but you could torch your competition, too.
Some streaming options stand out more than others. I didn’t necessarily pick the best of the best. Instead, I offered some of these barely owned if owned at all prospect types who possess some serious talent and therefore nice upside for those in very deep leagues who are hoping to be a little lucky.
Good luck to fantasy baseball players in these final few days – particularly the ones who read FanGraphs.