Archive for Blake DeWitt

So it looks like Dustin Pedroia might be out for the year now that his foot has remained sore. His owners are left crying into their caps, and looking for replacements. Since it’s normally time for a middle infield update anyway, this works out well. We’ll look at possible replacements based on the size of your league. The benchmarks come from Jeff Zimmerman’s article here.

Shallow Leagues (58% owned or less)
If you are lucky, Omar Infante (60% owned) will be out there for you. He is one of the better possibilities for replacing the little-bit-of-power, little-bit-of-speed thing that Pedroia had going, and he is also atop one of the better lineups in the National League. But Infante doesn’t quite hit our benchmark, so Alberto Callaspo (46% owned) has a little more pop than Asdrubal Cabrera (44% owned) and might therefore be a better replacement for the balding Boston ballplayer. Though neither has shown much power or speed this year, it’s Callaspo that has had the best power year (.156 ISO in 2009) between the two and Cabrera that has had the best speed year (5.9 speed score in 2009). Depending on your priorities, they make decent stop-gaps.

12-Team Leagues (26% owned or less)
The options on this level are Orlando Hudson and Ryan Raburn, and both have a little more power than the guys above. Raburn’s currently showing a .176 ISO and has a .186 career number in that category, so he’s the guy to pick up for power. With his strikeout rate (26.2% this year, 25.9% career), he probably won’t put up a Pedroia-an batting average, and his speed has declined from about average (5.1 in 2008, 5.0 is average) to below average (3.8 in 2010) in three years. Hudson will give you a decent batting average as he has been within spitting distance of his .282 career batting average in most years. Unfortunately, he’s in the midst of a four-year decline in his power and now owns a poor ISO (.118). While his speed score is still above average (5.6), he hasn’t cracked double-digit in steals since 2007. Either way, Hudson is the closer comp to the Boston second baseman.

20-Team Leagues (1% owned or less)
Yes, Blake DeWitt is playing every day and is atop a lineup, but he’s also owned in 3% of Yahoo leagues, doesn’t have much pop or speed, and that Cubs lineup isn’t anywhere close to the Red Sox lineup. Well, none of your options in leagues of this size will come close to Pedroia’s excellence, so let’s just get that out of the way. No, of the second basemen owned in 1% of leagues (or less), it’s Chris Getz that is the most interesting. He’s mostly wrested the second base job away from Mike Aviles, but he’s just about as flawed as the man he replaces (or worse). He has no power to speak of (.040 ISO this year, .069 career, .150 ISO is average), and now that he’s 641 plate appearances into his career and showing the same walk rate every year (7.8% this year, 7.3% career), we can say he doesn’t really get on base at an average rate (8.5% walk rate is average this year). Well, he does do one thing. His speed score has stayed above average every year and is decent this year (5.5). He has some wheels. His 13 stolen bases (87% success rate) even means that he could equal a fictionally healthy Pedroia the rest of the way in one category. Unfortunately for deep league owners, it’s just one category.

Some notes on three third baseman to start your Tuesday.

Blake DeWitt | Cubs | 2% Owned

DeWitt was the main piece heading back to the Cubs in the Ted Lilly deal, and has made the Cubs very happy with his production thus far. His line drive approach and quickness will allow for his .335 BABIP to say relatively constant, keeping his batting average around .275. If he can cut back on the strikeouts by a couple percent, he will be an even better fantasy (and real life) option. He won’t hit for much power, or steal many bases, but he’s a good option if you are looking for batting average or you need help in an OBP league.

Alex Gordon | Royals | 19% Owned

Since being recalled from the minors, Gordon has hit four homers in 22 plate appearances, and even stole a base. His walk rate in that time has not been good, and his strikeout rate hasn’t been good, either. His BABIP has been low, compared to his line drive rate, so the batting average will come up a bit. His ability to fill both your third base and left field hole helps his value, and he’s still worth an add in deeper and AL-only keeper leagues.

Paul Janish | Reds | 0% Owned

Janish is starting to enter his peak seasons, so it’s now or never for the Cincinnati shortstop. Janish has always hit a strangely high amount of fly balls for a light hitting shortstop, but his BB and K-rates have been consistently good, and getting better. Like DeWitt, Janish is worth a shot in OBP leagues, though he should probably be slotted in at your shortstop position. If you’re in a keeper format, hopefully Janish shows enough on the field for the Reds to consider him for a starting role in 2011, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Today, we’ll go with a diptych of guys that should be available in your league. Their upside is limited, but there are reasons to like em.

Blake DeWitt | 2B, 3B | Dodgers (1% owned)
He’s got no power, hits for a middling average and doesn’t steal a base. So he’s got those things going for him. Why pick up DeWitt? Well, for one, he’s playing almost every day – 18 of the Dodger’s 22 games. Another nice thing about DeWitt is his patience. He’s finally showing the patience that got him a .349 OBP in Albuquerque last year, and the stick control that produced more walks than strikeouts that same year. Swing rates, because of their high number per AB, become significant earlier than most stats. DeWitt is swinging less (41.6% this year, 42.4% last year) and making more contact (88.6% last year and 93.9% this year). A 17% walk rate and .390 OBP probably won’t continue, but a double-digit walk rate and decent OBP plays well in the right league and are achievable thresholds. We now have 470 career ABs for DeWitt, though, and a 3.3 speed score and .117 ISO mean that the power and speed don’t look to be developing much. Ironically, someone like a young Ronnie Belliard seems to be his ceiling.

Edward Mujica | SP, RP | Padres (3% owned)
Here’s another guy with warts for you! (You’re welcome.) Mujica probably won’t start, and he probably won’t close. Since the Padres haven’t gone to him in high leverage situations yet (0.69 gmLI), he’s only even racked up two holds. But there are reasons to enjoy Mujica’s game (and name). Ever since he added his split finger pitch and moved to the bullpen, he’s been lights out (his name has always sounded great). His strikeout rate since he started using the splitty over 20% of the time has been close to eight per nine and his walk rate below two per nine. The pitch itself is nice – 3.89 runs per 100 pitches – and it adds to his overall mix in a great way. Batters are reaching more than ever (31.3%) and making less contact than ever (70.5%). Plus, it’s just one of those pitches that breaks MLB pitch f/x, like the Mike Pelfrey split-change. You have to root for a pitch like that.

With Orlando Hudson now turning two for the Twins, the Los Angeles Dodgers have an open competition at the keystone spot heading into 2010. Are any of the candidates worthy of fantasy consideration?

The two main guys fighting to gain manager Joe Torre’s favor are Ronnie Belliard and Blake DeWitt.

Turning 35 in April, Belliard was picked up from the Nationals last August and split time at second with the O-Dog down the stretch. The bulky Belliard won’t be helped by his limited range in the field. He’s currently trying to shed some weight: in order for his $825,000 contract to become guaranteed, he needs to tip the scales at no more than 209 pounds at some point during spring training.

At the dish, Belliard has a 111 wRC+ in nearly 1,200 PA over the past three seasons. He has hit for a good deal of power over the past two seasons: Belliard had a .137 Isolated Power in 2007, but posted a .186 ISO in ’08 and a .174 ISO in ’09.

Over that same time period, Belliard’s strikeout rate has risen from 14.1% in ’07, 19.6% in ’08 and 21.2% in ’09. Perhaps he’s taking a bigger cut, coming up empty more often in exchange for those additional extra base hits. On pitches within the strike zone, Belliard made contact 90% of the time in 2007, 87.1% in ’08 and 85.4% last season (87-88% MLB average).

DeWitt, meanwhile, was taken in the first round (28th overall) of the 2004 draft. The lefty batter has shifted between second and third base during his pro career, compiling a .277/.337/.443 triple-slash in the minors.

In 2008, DeWitt took 421 trips to the plate with the Dodgers, batting .264/.344/.383 with a 96 wRC+. Though he showed little thump (.120 ISO), he did display a good eye. DeWitt drew draw a walk in 10.7 percent of his PA, chasing 22.3 percent of pitches thrown off of the plate (25 percent MLB average).

Last year, he got just 53 PA at the big league level with a 64 wRC+. At Triple-A Albuquerque, DeWitt hit a mild .256/.349/.426, walking 11.8 percent, punching out 12.5 percent and posting a .170 ISO. Albuquerque is a great offensive environment, so DeWitt’s major league equivalent line looks dour: Baseball Prospectus’ MLE’s have Blake’s 2009 work at Albuquerque translating to a .216/.306/.373 showing in the big leagues. That certainly looks harsh: DeWitt’s BABIP in Triple-A was just .273. His MLE wouldn’t look as grisly if he had hit 20 to 30 points higher with the Isotopes.

Belliard and DeWitt could be platooned, with Ronnie rapping lefties and Dewitt handling right-handers. DeWitt hasn’t done much against southpaws in the minors, with a .266/.323/.391 triple-slash (he has performed well against LHP in limited big league time, but the very small sample size doesn’t lend itself to any firm conclusions).

Jamey Carroll, inked to a two-year deal over the winter, will serve as an infield reserve. Skilled glove man Chin-lung Hu could end up being the next Adam Everett if some team gives him a chance. That says all you need to know about his fantasy value, though. The sleeper in the discussion is Ivan DeJesus Jr., a well-regarded prospect looking to rebound from a lost ’09 season.

DeJesus Jr., 22, missed last year after suffering a broken leg during a nasty home plate collision. The 5-11, 180 pound middle infielder offers little in the power department (his career minor league ISO is .074), so he’ll have to prove that he can avoid being bullied by big league pitching. However, he has a .295/.380/.369 line on the farm. He controls the strike zone well, drawing ball four in 11.5 percent of his PA and striking out 17.5 percent. DeJesus Jr. wasn’t a speed merchant prior to his injury, but he did swipe 16 bags in Double-A in 2008, and has a career 75 percent success rate. Don’t be surprised if he enters the picture at some point in 2010.

For 2010, CHONE projects Belliard to bat .257/.318/.407, with a 94 wRC+. DeWitt checks in at .254/.327/.398, which also comes out to a 94 wRC+. Neither guy figures to garner much attention in fantasy leagues.

DeJesus Jr. is the most interesting name of the bunch, though his lack of pop is worrisome. Pitchers aren’t going to tiptoe around the strike zone if the guy batting can do little more than slap a single. Those walk totals might not translate especially well to the highest level, though that remains to be seen. Outside of deep NL-only leagues, Belliard and DeWitt aren’t draft-worthy. DeJesus Jr. is someone to keep in mind during the summer.