Archive for Billy Buckner

Arizona Diamondbacks acquired LHP Dontrelle Willis from the Detroit Tigers for RHP Billy Buckner.

As part of the deal, the Tigers will pick up what’s left of Willis’ $12 million salary for the 2010 season, save for the prorated portion of the big league minimum.

From 2003-2006, Dontrelle averaged 3.8 Wins Above Replacement per season. Since then, the lefty with the signature leg kick has racked up just 0.7 WAR, losing all semblance of strike zone control while battling knee, forearm and anxiety issues.

Happily, Willis is backing to taking regular turns in the rotation. But it’s difficult to be especially optimistic about his ability to contribute. Moving back to the NL certainly won’t hurt the D-Train’s chances of a career revival, but in 43.1 IP with the Tigers this season, he had 6.85 K/9, 6.02 BB/9, a 45.5 GB% and a 4.93 xFIP.

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Here is the latest update to Week Seven 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

NYY – CC Sabathia
DET – Justin Verlander
ARI – Billy Buckner

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

NYY – Javier Vazquez
COL – Jhoulys Chacin
DET – Jeremy Bonderman
MIL – David Bush
WAS – John Lannan
ARI – Cesar Valdez

Sabathia is coming off his worst start of the season, as he allowed 9 H and 6 ER in 6 IP versus the Tigers last time out. Overall, the strikeouts are down and the homers are up for the big lefty. Sabathia’s 6.41 K/9 is his lowest since 2002 while his 14.3 HR/FB rate is the highest of his career. And the home runs are not due to his home park, as Sabathia has made four of his six starts and allowed six of his 7 HR on the road. His SwStr%, which was 13.9 in 2008, sits at 9.2 here in 2010.

After allowing 10 ER in his first 10 IP this year, Verlander is 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA over his last six starts. In that frame he has 16 BB and 37 Ks in 38.2 IP and has allowed just1 HR. The past three years, Verlander has seen his GB/FB ratio deteriorate, as he has allowed more and more fly balls. But this year the trend has stopped, as his 1.14 GB/FB mark is his best since 2006. Verlander still averages in the mid 90s with his fastball, but he is throwing more off-speed stuff this year. His slider, change and curve have all been more effective pitches so far in 2010 than they were a year ago, when Verlander won 19 games.

Buckner gets the call from Triple-A, where he was 3-1 with a 3.53 ERA at Reno. Surprisingly, Buckner had a 5.6 K/9 after having an 8.4 mark with the same team a season ago. Buckner has 125.1 IP in the majors and has had trouble with the gopher ball. He has a 16.4 HR/FB rate in the majors. Buckner does do a good job of getting ground balls, with a 1.47 GB/FB mark in his time in the majors. He is not overpowering but has a full repertoire of pitches, including a curve, change and cutter.

At first blush, Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Billy Buckner looks like a toxic fantasy option. After all, he’s an exiled Kansas City Royal who posted a-shield your eyes!-6.40 ERA in 2009. Why in the world should you care about William Jennings Bucker?

What if I were to argue that Buckner really didn’t pitch that poorly last season? That, in terms of the facets of pitching over which he has the most control, Bucker was actually pretty good? Crazy, right? Perhaps not.

Kansas City’s second round pick in the 2004 draft, Bucker has tossed 324 innings at the Triple-A level (51 starts, 15 relief appearances). Overall, the University of South Carolina product has punched out 6.9 batters per nine frames, with 3.2 BB/9 and a 3.82 Fielding Independent ERA.

Courtesy of Minor League Splits, here are Buckner’s Major League Equivalent lines from 2007-2009, based on his Triple-A work:

2007: 105 IP, 6.26 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 48.2 GB%, 4.58 FIP
2008: 124 IP, 4.44 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 46.2 GB%, 5.01 FIP
2009: 106 IP, 7.24 K/9, 4.85 BB/9, 49.5 GB%, 4.17 FIP

Those aren’t the numbers of some amazing, unrecognized pitcher, but they’re useful nonetheless. Buckner’s combined MLE from 2007 to 2009: a 4.65 FIP, with 5.96 K/9 and 3.88 BB/9.

Buckner bounced between Triple-A Tucson and Arizona last year, compiling a big league ERA that would make Daniel Cabrera giggle. But beneath the Boeing-level ERA, Buckner showed some promising skills.

In 77.1 innings pitched (13 starts, 3 ‘pen appearances), the 26 year-old struck out 7.45 batters per nine innings, issuing 3.38 BB/9. He also kept the ball down, generating grounders 48.8 percent of the time. Buckner’s xFIP, based on whiffs, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, was 3.95- nearly two and a half runs lower than his actual ERA.

What happened? For one, it seemed as though the D-Backs righty had seven Bill Buckners behind him, with Mookie Wilson perpetually at the plate (I know, I know-it was an error. But play along). Buckner’s BABIP was .347, the ninth-highest rate among pitchers working at least 70 frames.

In addition, his HR/FB rate was obscenely high: 16.7 percent of fly balls hit against Bucker left the yard, compared to the 11-12 percent major league average. Buckner’s rate of stranding runners on base, 63.2, was also out of whack. Perhaps he does struggle pitching from the stretch. But it seems unlikely that Buckner will have a strand rate seven to nine percent below the big league average again next year.

Buckner did a nice job of getting batters to go fishing, getting swings on pitches out of the strike zone 29.9 percent of the time (25% MLB average). His contact rate was 76.5 percent, below the 80-81 percent major league average.

Granted, he will have to combat Chase Field’s inhospitable environs: per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Chase boosted run scoring by 15 percent compared to a neutral ball park over the past three seasons. But heading into 2010, Buckner figures to be Arizona’s fifth starter. CHONE projects a 4.45 FIP in 167 innings, with 6.84 punch outs per nine and 3.45 BB/9.

Billy Buckner won’t be on anybody’s draft list. In all likelihood, some of your fellow owners will think you’re just having some 80’s flashback if you mention the guy’s name. But Bucker could be a shrewd NL-only option if injuries send you scrambling to the waiver wire.