Archive for Astros

Ominous title, I know, but in all fairness: Jose Altuve sports a paltry .207/.267/.322 (65 wRC+) line. The former consensus 2nd-overall pick who hit .298 with a career-high 31 home runs last year may seem like an unlikely collapse candidate on the surface.

Unfortunately, the cracks began to show last year. For one, Altuve all but stopped running; when he did run, he fared poorly, succeeding in only six of 11 attempts. Moreover, his .298 average, while excellent, was a far cry from his best (.346) and post-breakout five-year peak from 2014 through 2018 (.331). These are the obvious signs of wear.

A lightly critical evaluation might have concluded Altuve would still be a valuable commodity in 2020. Average draft position (ADP) data confirms this suspicion; a post-pandemic-onset ADP of 40.12 (37th overall), per the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC), ain’t nothing to sneeze at.

Yet my work on launch angle tightness in December, while illuminating and fun to research, shone a spotlight on an interesting and very specific data point: Altuve.

A tight launch angle (small standard deviation) is not always good, and a loose launch angle (large) is not always bad, but by and large the overall trend holds. Perhaps a more effective way to use tightness is to compare it historically for each player. While Altuve never had elite tightness, it was consistent, and he was an elite hitter, and that’s all that mattered. So it alarmed me to see his launch angle loosen up in 2019:

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Although Brad Hand returned to Cleveland’s bullpen, Carlos Carrasco recorded his first save of the season working 1.1 scoreless innings while walking one. Carrasco’s story this year cannot be ignored and he’s turned in two straight scoreless outings as a reliever. His ability to work multiple innings could translate to more save chances down the stretch. Perhaps Terry Francona wishes to ease Hand back into high leverage in order to ensure success. Following heavy usage in the first half, Hand struggled after the All-Star break with a 6.00 ERA in 18 innings from July 15th on, including four home runs in the 19 game stretch. Hand owners will need to monitor his usage and effectiveness once he returns to the mound but remain hopeful since he did record five consecutive saves before leaving the team for an MRI. He last pitched on September eighth. All reports suggest Hand’s bullpen sessions went well leading up to last night. Stay tuned. Read the rest of this entry »

With the season winding down, the high leverage moments never cease. Since bullpens could be a determining factor in many races, it’s going to be intriguing to see how teams monitor usage to keep pitchers fresh. One preemptive strike occurred in Los Angeles with the Dodgers announcing Kenta Maeda will transition to the bullpen in preparation for the playoffs. While part of this can be attributed to his 2.08 ERA in 17.1 innings as a reliever in the playoffs, it’s also a move to depress his pay within his contract. Last night, Maeda worked the last four innings for his first save giving up four hits, three earned runs and striking out five against the Rockies. His owners will need to adjust how to deploy him going forward, but there’s a chance to mine a couple of saves during the Dodgers last 22 games.

For the second straight outing, and second time this season, Roberto Osuna allowed a home run. Yesterday’s home run by Christian Yelich off of Osuna resulted in his first blown save since August 11th and sixth of the season. There’s no need to panic since Osuna’s entrenched as Houston’s closer, but he’s produced a 5.60 ERA, 4.17 xFIP and 1.19 WHIP over 17.2 innings since the All-Star break while allowing five home runs. Following a go ahead home run by George Springer off of Junior Guerra, Josh James recorded the first save of his major league career navigating around two walks with three strikeouts.

As alluded to above, monitoring pitcher usage will be tantamount to success down the stretch. Taylor Rogers notched his 22nd save with a clean ninth inning striking out one. He’s converted his last six save chances for Minnesota anchoring a bullpen which ranks second in the majors in ERA (3.41) since July 24th. However, Rogers owns a 7.82 ERA when working in consecutive games with two losses and two saves in them this year. When he receives a day of rest in between outings, Rogers ERA drops to a minuscule 0.96 with two wins and 20 saves spanning 46.2 innings. Food for thought.

On the other hand, Carlos Martinez thrives this year working in back-to-back outings. He locked down his 17th save of the year logging retiring the last four hitters in a row, two via strikeout. Martinez leads the National League with 14 saves in the second half and pitched in consecutive games 13 times this year closing out all nine save chances in them. He’s also generating the highest ground ball rate (60.8 percent) of his career. Andrew Miller gets his 23rd hold walking one and striking out one in one-third of an inning. Miller’s only allowed two hits against the last 26 batters he’s faced.

Remember when the Atlanta bullpen seemed to struggle despite all of the deadline acquisitions? Mark Melancon secured his seventh straight save on Monday striking out the side on 11 pitches against Toronto. Melancon’s converted all eight of his save chances with the Braves and only given up one earned run his last eight outings spanning 7.1 innings. Shane Greene turned in his 11th straight scoreless appearance with a clean eighth inning and a strikeout. He’s yielded four hits and one walk with 11 strikeouts his last 11 innings.

Quick Hits: Noting the Rays moved up their game with Baltimore to a doubleheader today. Yesterday, Colin Poche recorded his fourth win allowing a hit in a scoreless 10th inning. Emilio Pagan tossed a clean ninth inning striking out one and owns a 23:0 K:BB rate over his last 14 games dating back to July 30th…In an eventual loss, Mychal Givens preserved a tied game logging a clean outing with two strikeouts. He’s surged of late with a win and two saves with a 2.45 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and 15 strikeouts versus one walk his last 11 appearances. Hunter Harvey stranded a runner striking out the only hitter he faced and recorded 10 of his 16 outs via strikeout since his promotion…David Phelps nabs his second win walking one and striking out one on Monday…

With Steve Cishek going on the 10-day IL with hip inflammation on Saturday, the Cubs are without four of the relievers in the back end of their bullpen. Kyle Ryan has been on the bereavement list since Friday, and Craig Kimbrel (knee) and Brandon Kintzler (pectoral) are both on the IL. However both Kimbrel and Kintzler could be back by this weekend.

In the meantime, who’s left to get saves? Pedro Strop, who served in the role before the Kimbrel came on board, pitched a scoreless ninth inning against the Reds with a 6-3 lead on Sunday, picking up his 10th save. David Phelps, who recorded the Cubs’ previous save on Aug. 5, got the win in this contest, as his 1-2-3 bottom of the sixth inning preceded Kris Bryant’s go-ahead three-run homer in the top of the seventh. Sandwiched in between Phelps and Strop was Rowan Wick, who got his second hold as a result of pitching two scoreless innings. It would seem that any of the three could collect saves this week, as well as Ryan, who will be eligible to return on Monday.
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Several normally-reliable closers blew saves on Tuesday night. Neither Ken Giles nor Will Smith got saves, but the former picked up a win against the Indians, and the latter pitched a pair of scoreless innings versus the Cubs. Given how the night went for other top closers, Giles’ and Smith’s fantasy owners should feel fortunate.

The slugfest between the Yankees and the Twins was rough on starters and relievers alike, and both team’s closers blew a chance at a save. Initially, it looked as if Taylor Rogers was going to put an end to the scoring — and the game. With just six pitches, he set down Gleyber Torres and Giovanny Urshela, and then he got a 1-2 count on Mike Tauchman. Rogers missed on his next three pitches, putting Tauchman on first base. His first pitch to Aaron Hicks was right down the middle, and the Yankees’ center fielder deposited it in the Yankees’ bullpen, turning an 11-10 deficit into a 12-11 lead.
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With less than three weeks to the trade deadline for teams to formulate decisions, bullpens will play a pivotal role in deciding whether to buy, sell or hold. Philadelphia lost on a two run home run allowed by Hector Neris to Juan Soto in the ninth inning yesterday. On the surface, it seems like a blip. However, this loss puts the Phillies on the outside looking due to the Brewers comeback win over the Giants. Injuries have ravaged the depth in Philadelphia’s bullpen but Neris took over as closer early on and did not look back. But, he’s blown two of his last three save chances and served up a home run in consecutive outings spanning the All-Star break.

Neris has shown the ability to bounce back from adversity all season long, so he should remain in his present role. Neris also issue a walk with the bases loaded in the eighth upon replacing Adam Morgan who allowed singles to Soto and Ryan Zimmerman preceding Victor Robles reaching on an error prior to the fateful ninth inning meltdown. Keep tabs on Tommy Hunter who turned in a clean seventh inning for his first hold and has not yielded a run in five outings since his return from the injured list. Philadelphia also awaits the return of David Robertson by the end of the month. (Update, post publish the Phillies placed Tommy Hunter on the injured reserve and promoted Edubray Ramos)

For the Nationals, Sean Doolittle closed the door on his 20th save working around a single by Maikel Franco. Since Washington prefers not to overwork Doolittle, he should receive Sunday off which opens the door for the Fernando Rodney experience in the ninth inning if a save presents itself. Wander Suero recorded his second win retiring the only two hitters he faced in the bottom of the eighth before the Nationals rally in the top of the ninth.

With teams circling the San Francisco bullpen as the trade deadline looms, Sam Dyson struggled during his outing on Saturday. Dyson coughed up three straight doubles to Mike Moustakas, Jesus Aguilar and Keston Hiura resulting in two runs then a single to Eric Thames before exiting. All told, Dyson gets tagged with four hits and three earned runs to his ledger without recording an out. This results in his first blown save all year and the first runs he’s given up since June 20th in an ugly appearance. Derek Holland walked Yasmani Grandal then induced a sacrifice fly by Orlando Arcia before retiring Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich to end the inning.

Just when it seemed safe for the Brewers, Jeremy Jeffress entered for the save chance with Josh Hader unavailable. Jeffress walked lead-off batter Brandon Crawford then allowed a one out singles to Austin Slater and Stephen Vogt. Two runs scored on Vogt’s single but only one earned due to an error by Lorenzo Cain with the ball going under his glove letting the second run score. Freddy Peralta was in line for the win walking two and striking out three in the top of the eighth, but Jeffress garners the win after the Brewers rallied in the bottom of the frame. Reyes Moronta took over in the ninth of a tied game but an error by Brandon Crawford allowed Ryan Braun to reach base. Moronta rebounded striking out Moustakas and Aguilar before issuing a walk to Hiura. Ben Gamel then doubled driving in the winning run and handing Moronta his fifth loss. Who says high leverage does not matter?

Another game deciding by the bullpens occurred in Texas. Roberto Osuna held on for his 20th save in the 11th inning. Osuna did serve up a lead-off double to Nomar Mazara who later scored on a Delino DeShields Jr. single during the inning. It’s been a rocky start to the second half for Osuna giving up runs in consecutive games along with two hits and a walk in each appearance. Of more concern, the four walks in his last three games after yielding only five in his previous 36 innings of work. Ryan Pressly struck out two in the eighth inning and Josh James gets his fourth win working two scoreless innings walking one while striking out two. Brett Martin of Texas takes the loss after giving up two runs in the top of the 11th on a Jose Altuve double and Myles Straw single.

Last, but not least, the Braves outlasted the Padres in San Diego. Kirby Yates suffered his second blown save entering the eighth inning after a lead-off walk issued by Gerardo Reyes forced him from the game. Yates allowed a single to Nick Markakis then induced a fielder’s choice ground out by Ozzie Albies but Josh Donaldson advanced to third with one out. A sacrifice fly by Austin Riley scored Donaldson tying the game handing Yates the blown save letting an inherited runner score. Yates finished two innings yielding two hits and striking out four. Luis Perdomo imploded in the top of the 10th giving up two hits, three earned runs and two walks for his second loss.

Sean Newcomb benefits for his third win after he walked two and struck out two in the bottom of the ninth for Atlanta. Luke Jackson once again held on for his 16th save but it was a wild ride. Jackson served up a solo home run to Manny Machado starting the 10th inning then faced a bases loaded situation with two outs but struck out Perdomo ending the game. All told, Jackson’s line did not look pretty with two hits, an earned run and two walks with a strikeout, but a save’s a save, right? Anthony Swarzak worked the eighth inning walking one and striking out one in his first outing off of the injured list. Swarzak’s been a stabilizing force for the Braves recording a 0.49 ERA in 18.1 innings during 18 appearances with the team since his acquisition.

Before delving into the Quick Hits, something to track in Toronto. Daniel Hudson notched his second save on Saturday afternoon with Ken Giles not available. Giles last worked on July fourth against Boston. This tweet updated to say the massage happened during the All-Star break, but be aware of Giles health going forward:

Charlie Montoyo says Ken Giles suffered some nerve inflammation in his elbow from a massage earlier in the day. He’s day to day per manager. #BlueJays

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) July 13, 2019

It could be nothing or it could be something, time will tell. Do know, it was Derek Law throwing with Hudson providing traffic in the ninth before recording the last out on a strikeout of Luke Voit. Also note David Phelps fired 1.1 clean innings of setup relief for his first hold with three strikeouts. This Blue Jays bullpen could be gutted at the deadline so it’s not crazy to think Phelps, with health, could get saves at some point. Stranger things have happened.

Quick Hits: Mychal Givens notched his seventh save firing two clean inning with two strikeouts in Game 1 versus the Rays. It’s his first save since June 11th. Richard Bleier gets his first win walking one in a scoreless seventh inning…Colin Poche suffers his second blown save and loss coughing up a two run home run to Stevie Wilkerson. Yes, Poche has blown the save in two of his last three outings, but heed his 27:1 K:BB to start his career. Emilio Pagan pitched a clean eighth with two strikeouts and Diego Castillo made his first appearance off the injured list in Game 2 recording two outs…Getting in work, Alex Colome allowed a hit, an earned run and a walk with a strikeout. Aaron Bummer tossed a clean eighth inning…Blake Treinen yielded two hits, two earned runs and a walk with no strikeouts. He’s given up runs in two of his three appearances since returning from the injured list…Ian Kennedy locked down his 13th save with a clean ninth striking out one. Kennedy’s converted 11 of his last 12 save chances with a 1.89 ERA and 19:4 K:BB since May 30th…Taylor Rogers pitched a clean ninth with a strikeout, but with a four run lead. Blake Parker logged 1.1 clean innings with two strikeouts for his eighth hold…Save number 20 for Edwin Diaz working around a hit with a strikeout. He’s converted four saves in a row. Seth Lugo gets his 13th hold working a clean eighth with two strikeouts….Strong outing for Carlos Martinez striking out three of the four batters he faced for his fourth save. Giovanny Gallegos recorded his seventh hold striking out two in 1.2 innings…A potential injury to Steven Wright could open the door for a Darwinson Hernandez promotion. Since transitioning to the bullpen at Triple-A, Hernandez has retired all 10 hitters he’s faced as a reliever…Two clean innings with two strikeouts for Julio Urias in Boston but he did not pitch the ninth so no save chance, sigh…Jared Hughes gets the one out win pitching in Colorado prior to a five run rally by the Reds. Michael Lorenzen did record his sixth hold with a clean inning.

Unfortunately, the second half picked up where the tumultuous first half ended in terms of performances in high leverage. Both Josh Hader and Will Smith suffered blown saves in outings against their respective teams last night. Hader entered in the eighth inning serving up a lead-off home run to Tyler Austin. He settled in striking out Brandon Belt, getting Buster Posey to ground out and then a foul tip strikeout of Evan Longoria. Read the rest of this entry »

Due to a four game slate, the normally voluminous Bullpen Report will seem paltry. But, there’s still some situations to monitor along with performances of note. It seems like Kenley Jansen turned a corner last month and carried it over to last night. Jansen locked down his 18th save allowing a ground rule double to Eduardo Escobar with two outs then inducing David Peralta to pop out to third baseman Justin Turner ending the game. Through 25.2 innings, Jansen owns a 3.16 ERA, 3.43 xFIP and 0.90 WHIP. More impressive, his improved results over the last 30 days during which Jansen’s recorded a 19.6 swinging strike percentage while reducing contact to 66.3 percent and 12 strikeouts against one walk. Read the rest of this entry »

Why do bullpens matter? It’s a question worth pondering, especially for Max Scherzer owners. Scherzer’s recorded nine quality starts this year and the Nationals own a 2-10 record in his starts. He left with a one run lead after six innings and 103 pitches. Tanner Rainey walked the lead-off hitter, Miguel Rojas, never a great start for a reliever. A sacrifice bunt, fielding error, then a lineout by Curtis Granderson moved Rojas to third. He scored on a groundout resulting in an unearned run, but Scherzer’s lead evaporated. Basically, a microcosm of frustrated Scherzer owners and Nationals fans alike. Read the rest of this entry »

Just when it seemed safe to trust Mychal Givens, the implosion occurs. Givens entered last night’s appearance riding a six game scoreless streak with 11 strikeouts against four walks over nine innings with four saves. After giving up a home run to Gleyber Torres, who obliterates Orioles pitching, Givens returned for the ninth hoping to record a 1.1 inning save. Back to back singles by Brett Gardner and Cameron started the top of the ninth with immediate traffic, less than optimal. Givens induced a fielder’s choice ground out by D.J. LeMahieu, but the runners advanced leading to a sacrifice fly by Aaron Hicks. So, two outs and two runners on set the stage for a Luke Voit walk then a three-run go ahead home run by Gary Sanchez. Read the rest of this entry »